ONTARIO’S NIR RESULTS 2012

GHG emissions will exceed the target by 28 Mt in 2020. This is a significant amount; it is almost twice the total emissions from the electrical sector in 2012.

CCAP Targets 2007

1990 Reference Year Emissions 177 Mt

• 6% below 1990 by 2014 (to 166 Mt)• 15% below 1990 by 2020 (to 150 Mt)• 80% below 1990 by 2050 (to 35 Mt)

Transportation

• Largest sector of emissions• Grown substantially since 1990• 2007 CCAP called for a 19 Mt by 2020• In 2012 that became a 3.9 Mt Why?• We must begin to shift away from a carbon

intense transportation system

Industry

• Down but largely responding to the economy• On slight decline in energy and GHG intensity• Clearly the industry is not happy with the

stakeholder consultation process to date• Continental trend seems to be toward Cap &

Trade but there has been no decisions on this or development of offset protocols in Ontario

Buildings

• There have been energy efficiency improvements for new buildings in the OBC

• Two new funding initiatives for energy retrofits on existing buildings:– Local Improvement Charges– On-bill Financing (thru energy utilities)

• Initiatives needed to make buildings solar and plug-in ready

Electricity

• LTEP shows growing reliance on natural gas (NG) without consideration of GHG implications

• OPA and OPG estimates of how much NG will be burnt don’t jive

Electricity

• LTEP shows growing reliance on natural gas (NG) without consideration of GHG implications

• OPA and OPG estimates of how much NG will be burnt don’t jive

• And then there is the strange projection of cessation in growth of renewables after 2025

Agriculture

• Emissions are flat between 9 and 10 Mt per year – largely a function of our agricultural technology

• Tremendous opportunities exist to sequester large amounts of carbon by developing healthy soils rich with microorganisms

• Soil management coupled with other best practices could sequester 9 Mt/yr by 2020

Waste

• Current diversion rate of organic waste is relatively low – most still going to landfill

• A ban of organics in landfill is needed• Methane collection from existing landfills

should continue• But, there are problems with fugitive

emissions especially if extraction is induced

Four Big Ideas

That Are Framing and Changing the Policy Discussion on Climate Change

THE SCIENCE IS CERTAIN

The science of our climate systems has developed substantially to much higher degrees of certainty and the data are now demonstrating the shifts in climate and oceanic conditions that are in progress.

IPCC Report 2014

• Land and ocean surface temperatures are rising as predicted

IPCC Report 2014

• Land and ocean surface temperatures are rising as predicted

• The cryosphere is melting and sea level is rising

IPCC Report 2014

• Land and ocean surface temperatures are rising as predicted

• The cryosphere is melting and sea level is rising

• The oceans are acidifying

IPCC Report 2014

• Land and ocean surface temperatures are rising as predicted

• The cryosphere is melting and sea level is rising

• The oceans are acidifying• Extreme weather events are occuring and

documented in the data

Northern Hemisphere Land Summer Temperature Anomalies

UNBURNABLE CARBON

In order to have a 66% chance of preventing a 2oC rise in average temperature total cumulative CO2 emissions cannot exceed 2900 Gt … just under 1900 Gt have already been emitted leaving a remaining budget of only 1000 Gt …

CHANGES IN INSURANCE RISK

Climate change is presenting a fundamental challenge to the insurance industry, which could mean that certain regions in Canada or asset categories are uninsurable as risks are too high …

ADAPTATION/MITIGATION TERMINOLOGY HAS CHANGED

The nations of the world have been engrossed in dogged debate about the need to reduce GHGs to mitigate climate change to levels that would be “ok.” This is not an option anymore …