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Inductive Reasoning and Fallacies
Chapter 9 p. 165
Inductive Reasoning
❖ From Specific Instances to General Conclusion
❖ Never certainty, always only probability
❖ The greater the probability, the more likely it is we can act on our conclusion
❖ P. 166: Case scenario
Evaluating Generalizations
❖ A generalization is a conclusion based on data gathered of specific instances. See page 167 and evaluate the reliability of these generalizations:
❖ People over the age of 60 tend to prefer to listen to oldies
❖ 73 percent of hotel rooms in this city are infested with bedbugs
❖ It's probably going to be cloudy and cold in San Francisco if you go in August
Four Questions for Evaluating Inductive Claims
❖ Was the correct group sampled?
❖ Were the data obtained in an effective way?
❖ Were enough cases considered?
❖ Was the sample representative?
❖ See page 168: Explain the meaning of each of these questions
"Correlation is not Causation"
❖ What is the meaning of:
❖ Coincidence
❖ Correlation
❖ Causation
Coincidence
❖ Two events happen together by chance
❖ Being struck twice by lightning
❖ By coincidence, every man in the room was named Fred.
❖ “I'm going to Boston this weekend.” “What a coincidence! I am too.”
❖ It was no coincidence that he quit his job at the bank a day after the robbery.
❖ Every person in this room is a third son.
Correlation
❖ Two events or characteristics that are usually found together, but one does not necessarily cause the other.
❖ "Correlation does not equal causation"
❖ Southerners and grit-eating.
❖ Dying one's hair and being a woman.
❖ Rise in food stamps and Barack Obama becoming president.
❖ Students who sit in the front of the class and students who make As.
Correlations
❖ Does eating more make you fat -OR- does being fat make you eat more?
❖ Are active people lean because they are active? -OR- Are lean people active because they are lean
❖ Gary Taubes, Why We Get Fat: And What to do About It: Two groups of mice had ovarectomies; both became obese. One group ate as much as they wanted (too much); the other group was put on a diet. Both remained obese, though the group on the diet became more sedentary.
More Correlation
❖ Most people who get lung cancer are or have been smokers.
❖ But most smokers do not get lung cancer.
❖ What causes lung cancer?
Causal Relationships❖ One event (or characteristic) causes another: are
the following causal relationships?
❖ Driving 120 miles an hour and accidents.
❖ Jumping off a 20 story building and death.
❖ Tectonic plates shifting and earthquakes.
❖ Car emissions and climate change.
❖ Marijuana and apathy
❖ Being raised in single parent families and failure
Inductive Fallacies
❖ Erroneous (Hasty) Generalization (p. 172)
❖ Playing with Numbers (p. 172-173)
❖ False Dilemma (Either/Or) (p. 173)
❖ The Gambler's Fallacy (p. 173)
❖ The False Cause Fallacy (p. 174)
❖ The Slippery Slope Fallacy (p. 175)
Evaluate Arguments p. 177
❖ Identify the argument/fallacy in Questions 1-17