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Page 1: Lovins PPT

1

Page 2: Lovins PPT

PREP Review MeetingThe Profitable Transition to Efficiency and Renewables

September 11, 2009Victor Olgyay

Amory B LovinsChairman & Chief ScientistRocky Mountain Institute

[email protected]

University of CaliforniaSanta Barbara, 5 March 2010Copyright © 2010 Rocky Mountain Institute. All rights reserved.

Profitable Solutions to Oil, Climate and Proliferation

Page 3: Lovins PPT

Do you prefer to die of:

1. Climate change?

2. Oil wars?

3. Nuclear holocaust?

A stupid multiple-choice test

Page 4: Lovins PPT

4. None of the Above

A stupid multiple-choice test

Page 5: Lovins PPT

January 2009 McKinsey supply curve shows 70% of 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions can be abated at an average cost ~€4/tCO2e

Page 6: Lovins PPT

By 2100, global CO2 emissions will

• triple — if we reduce energy/GDP by 1%/y

• level off — if 2%/y

• drop (stabilizing Earth’s climate) — if 3–4%/y

Profitable climate protection: How much can we do? How fast?

Yes!Feasible?

Page 7: Lovins PPT
Page 8: Lovins PPT

A 2004 roadmap for eliminating oil use by the 2040s

www.oilendgame.com

Page 9: Lovins PPT

A realistic oil solution at an average cost of $15/bbl (2000 $)

Petroleum use

Petroleum imports

0

7

14

21

28

35

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

2034

government projection (extrapolated after 2025)

plus optional hydrogen from leftover saved natural gas and/or renewables

plus supply substitution @ $18/bbl (max < $26/bbl)end use efficiency @ $12/bbl

Pet

role

um p

rod

uct

equi

vale

nt c

onsu

mp

tion

(mill

ion

bar

rels

/day

)

Sour

ce: L

ovin

s, A

mor

y B.

et

al. W

inni

ng th

e O

il En

dgam

e. 20

04 R

ocky

Mou

ntai

n In

stitu

te. w

ww

.oile

ndga

me.

com

. Te

chni

cal A

nnex

23.

* Il

lust

ratin

g 10

% s

ubst

itutio

n; 1

00%

+ is

feas

ible

U.S. Oil Use and Import, 1950–2035

...then substitution

Efficiency first...

Page 10: Lovins PPT

Vehicles use 70% of U.S. oil, but integrating low mass and dragwith advanced propulsion saves ~2/3 very cheaply

150 mi/h, 94 mpg

Page 11: Lovins PPT

Hypercar Revolution SUV (2000)67 mpg (114 w/H2), 1-y payback

Toyota 1/X sedan (2007)Prius size, 1/2 fuel use, 1/3 weight

Bright IDEA 1-T 5-m3 van (2009)3–12×-efficiency plug-in hybrid, needs no subsidy

Page 12: Lovins PPT

Fuel Energy

Page 13: Lovins PPT

Fuel Energy

87% Never Reaches the Wheels

Page 14: Lovins PPT

7% Drag & Rolling Resistance

Fuel Energy

Page 15: Lovins PPT

6% Accelerates the Car

Fuel Energy

Page 16: Lovins PPT

0.3% Moves the Driver

Fuel Energy

Page 17: Lovins PPT

Fuel Energy

2/3 is Weight Dependent

Page 18: Lovins PPT

Fuel Energy

1 unit at wheels = 8 units in the tank

Page 19: Lovins PPT

Radically simplified manufacturing

Page 20: Lovins PPT

“We must leave oil before it leaves us.”—Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency, 2008

Page 21: Lovins PPT
Page 22: Lovins PPT

1989 U.S. electricity-saving potential: ~75% at an average technical cost ~1¢/kWh (2008 $)

Page 23: Lovins PPT

Lovins House, Old Snowmass, Colorado, 1984

–47˚F with no heating/cooling equipment, lower construction cost

mid-1980s savings: ~99% of space- and water-heating energy, ~90% of household electricity, 10-month payback

Page 24: Lovins PPT

Inside, a tropical environment with 32 banana crops, no furnace

Page 25: Lovins PPT

Integrative design in retrofitting the Empire State Building

Page 26: Lovins PPT

ESB approachLighting& Plugs

$8.7 M

Windows

Radiative Barrier

DDC Controls

VAV AHUs

Chiller PlantRetrofit

$2.7 M

$5.6 M

$2.4 M

$4 M

minus$17.4 M

$4.4 MAnnual

Savings

Page 27: Lovins PPT

Conventionally, saving energy costs more and more

Savings

Cost

Page 28: Lovins PPT

Conventionally, saving energy costs more and more

Savings

Cost

Page 29: Lovins PPT

But integrative design can achieve expanding returns

Cost

Savings

Page 30: Lovins PPT

World’s electricity usage

Worlds Electricity

Usage

Page 31: Lovins PPT

World’s electricity usage

60% Motors

Worlds Electricity

Usage

Page 32: Lovins PPT

World’s electricity usage

30% Pumps and Fans

Worlds Electricity

Usage

Page 33: Lovins PPT

Saving electricity in industry: motors, pumps, and pipes

Page 34: Lovins PPT

69% less pumping power, lower capital cost

Page 35: Lovins PPT

10 Units-70%

Power Plant

-9%

Grid

-12%

Motor &Drivetrain

-55%

Pump &Throttle

-20%

PipeEnergy Output

100 Units

Coal EnergyInput

Energy efficiency: start downstream

Page 36: Lovins PPT

10 Units100 Units 5 Units50 Units

Energy efficiency: start downstream

Page 37: Lovins PPT

Examples from RMI’s industrial practice (>$30b of facilities)

Page 38: Lovins PPT

>100× energy leverage in the EDS data center

30WEnergy intoData Center

17WEnergy

Into Server

9WEnergy

Into Chips

.3W–1.5WEnergy intoApplications

Under-Utilization 85%-97%

• Compute• Storage• Bandwidth

Fans10%

PowerSupply

35%InefficientBusinessProcesses

??%

Cooling33%

Lighting4%

UPS15%

Inefficient &Zero-ValueApplications

10%-40%

$.12W-.9WEnergy into

Business Process

.00?WEnergy into

Customer Value

100WEnergy intoPower Plant

Transmission 10%

Power Plant 67%

then cut utility losses by ~50%

…then cut support overhead by 90%

➙…then cut IT equipment’s internal losses by 75%…

➙First debloat software and ensure that

every computation cycle is needed ➙

Page 39: Lovins PPT

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

TW

h p

er y

ear

Year

Low- or no-carbon worldwide

electrical output (except large hydro)

Wind

Small Hydro

(<10 MW)

B

Biomass and Waste

Photovoltaics

Nuclear

Non-Biomass CHP

Total renewables plus decentralized generation

Actual Projected

Geothermal

Low- and no-carbon distributed generatorsare rapidly eclipsing central stations

Page 40: Lovins PPT

The global power market is shifting rapidly to distributed generators

Output additions from nuclear fell behind PVs’ since

2007 and may never catch up!"#$

#$

"#$

%#$

&#$

'#$

(#$

)#$

"**#$ "**($ %###$ %##($ %#"#$

!"##

!$%&'$#!()(*'+),#-'.'/0123##4))5'$#6(1#4770+%)89#:;;<=><:<#

+,-.$

/012131425,67$

8964:5;$

Output additions from nuclear fell behind PVs’ since

2007 and may never catch up

Page 41: Lovins PPT

What “nuclear renaissance”? Here it is...

41

end 2009: 56(24% of 1979

peak), or4-odd % of newcapacity underconstruction

Of the 56 “under construction” reactors shown by IAEA at 9 Feb 2010: • 13 have been under construction for >20 years; 24 have no official start date; half are late• 41 are in China, India, Russia, or S. Korea; 6 of 10 starts in ’08 and 9 of 11 in ’09 are in China• All 56 are centrally planned, usually by authorities with a draw on the public purse• Zero are free-market purchases fairly compared or competed against available alternatives

Page 42: Lovins PPT

New nuclear plants will scarcely be able to offset old units’ retirements

Page 43: Lovins PPT

Nuclear is now the costliest of the no- or low-carbon resources

43

2009 order ~10–13¢

2009 order ~9–13¢

2008 av. 8.4¢ net of 1¢ PTC

“Forget Nuclear,” at www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid467.php; “The Nuclear Illusion,” Ambio, in press, 2010, preprint at www.rmi.org/images/PDFs/Energy/E08-01_AmbioNucIllusion.pdf

2007

US

¢ p

er d

eliv

ered

kW

h

Nuclear Coal Combined-cycle gas Wind

Waste-heat

cogenCC

cogenBldg

cogen Efficiency

MIT(2003)

Keystone (June 2007)

Moody's $7,500/kWe capex + Keystone O&M and financing: 15.2–20.6¢/kWh

Page 44: Lovins PPT

Nuclear Coal Combined-cycle gas Wind

Waste-heat cogenCC cogen Bldg cogen Efficiency

kg C

O2

dis

pla

ced

per

200

7 d

olla

r

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services

MIT study 03

Keynote high nuclear cost scenario (6/07)

Moodyʼs estimate (5/08)

1¢: 93 kg CO2/$2¢: 47 kg CO2/$

Carbon displacement at various efficiency costs/kWh

New nuclear saves 2–20× less carbon per dollar, ~20–40× slower, than efficiency and micropower investments

The cheapest and lowest-carbon sources save the most CO2 per dollar

Page 45: Lovins PPT

U.S. coal-fired electricity avoidable by...

Efficiency = average of top 10 States (2005)

Industrial cogeneration

Photovoltaics on 3% of structures

Building cogeneration?Other renewables?

Queued windpower

Available windpower~½ new-coal cost

~2¢/kWh extra cost

Coal-to-gas redispatch

Efficiency at average cost ~1¢/kWh

+? >22×

Cheaper than operating an oldcoal-fired plant

Cheaper than power from a new coal plant

TOTAL

Costlier than a new coal plant now, but

cheaper by the time you could build one

Index (U.S. coal-fired electricity in 2009 ≡ 1.0)

0 252015105

Page 46: Lovins PPT

Current System

Coal and Nuclear

Natural Gas & Oil

Energy Efficiency

& Renewables

Next Generation Utility

Energy Efficiency & Renewables

Combined-heat-and-power,Other distributed gen.

Coal and Nuclear

Demand Response& El. Vehicles

Transforming the electricity sector

Page 47: Lovins PPT

PREP Review MeetingThe Profitable Transition to Efficiency and Renewables

September 11, 2009Victor Olgyay

[email protected]


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