Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Low Carbon Scenarios for India: Modeling and New Scenarios Framework
P. R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management
Ahmedabad, India
Presented in the
‘14th AIM International Workshop’
Tsukuba, Japan, February 15-16, 2009
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
India Economy-Energy-Emissions Trends
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Indices, Base:1980=100
Energy consumption
Energy/person
Energy Intensity of GDP
Population
Electricity Consumption
GDP at factor cost
2006
300
Data Sources: CMIE, CEA, Census 2001, Economic Surveys and Government of India Ministry reports
2008
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Modeling Framework
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Integrated Modeling Framework
DATABASES
-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
AIM CGE Model
ANSWER-MARKAL
Model
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd Use Demand
Model
AIM Strateg
ic Datab
ase(SDB)
Integrated Modelling Framework
DATABASES
-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
AIM CGE Model
ANSWER-MARKAL
Model
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd Use Demand
Model
AIM Strateg
ic Datab
ase(SDB)
DATABASES
-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
AIM CGE Model
ANSWER-MARKAL
Model
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd Use Demand
Model
AIM Strateg
ic Datab
ase(SDB)
Integrated Modelling Framework
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
AIM CGE Framework
Production Sector (4)
Household Sector
Produced Goods
(Y) market
Production factor
market (K,L)
Environment
OutputValue
Added
Intermediate
Demand (X)
Final
Demand
(C)
Endowment
(K*, L*)
Feedback
Feedback
Pollution
Pollution
Source : Masui, T, 2005
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
India AIM CGE Data Structure
1. Indian I/O Table (1998-99)• 115 X 115 Commodity
2. Aggregated to• 8 Sector X 8 Sector
• 5 Energy Sectors• Coal, Oil, Gas, Nuclear, Renewable
• 3 Production Sectors• Agriculture, Manufacturing, Services
3. Exogenous Inputs• Carbon Tax trajectory• Fossil fuel prices
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Energy Economy Environment System
MINING
IMPORT
EXPORT
COAL
N. GAS
OIL
BIOMASS
NUCLEAR
RENEWABLE
45
ENVIRONMENT
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
COAL
GAS
HYDRO
NUCLEAR SOLAR
PETROLEUM
REFINERY
75
ENDUSE DEVICES
PUMP
TRACTOR
FURNACE
MOTOR
LIGHT BULB
COOLER
BUS
TRAIN
STOVE
FAN
ECONOMY
AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
COMMERCIAL
RESIDENTIAL
35
90
TECHNOLOGY CAPITAL
EMISSIONS
ENERGY
PROCESSING
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
End-Use Demand Projection Model
Macro Economic
Models – Overall GDP
Projections
Sector Share
ForecastingExpert
Opinions
Sector Elasticity
Module
End-use
Demand
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
AIM SNAPSHOT
Primary Energy
Final Energy
Services
CO2 emission
Primary Energy
Final Energy
Services
CO2 emission
Emission factors Emission factors
Energy use efficiency
Transformation efficiency
Energy use efficiency
Transformation efficiency
Base Year Target Year
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Base Case Projections
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Base Scenario: Assumptions
Base Scenario
1. GDP • Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from 2005-50
• 2050 Economy: 23 times larger than 2005
2. Population • 2000: 1021 Million
• 2050: 1593 Million
3. 650 ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 550 CO2)
4. 4.7 W/m2 Radiative Forcing
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2020 2035 2050
Base Year 2005=1
Annual Growth Rate 2005-50: 7.3%
Annual Growth Rate 2005-32: 8%
GDP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
US $/person
Per Capita Income
Savings Rate
20.622.8
24.6
33.035.0
32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
4037??
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Future Energy Mix: India
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mtoe
Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Future Carbon Emissions: India
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Million Ton CO2
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
LCS through Conventional Climate Centric Vision
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Alternate Development Visions
Stabilization Target and Visions
1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption:
• 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration
• 3.4 W/m2
• @ 3o C temperature increase (50:50)
2. Two Development Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050)
1. Conventional Vision: Climate Actions at Margin of Conventional Development path
2. ‘Sustainability’ Vision: Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Development Actions
What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments?
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
LCS via Climate Centric Actions
Carbon Market
Technologies
Energy Resources
Universal Participation
Market Structure/ Rules
Allocation of Rights
Modify Preferences
Competition/ Trade
Energy-Mix Mandates
Tech Transfer
Cooperative R&D
Remove Market Barriers
TargetInterventionsDriversAim
Forecasting
Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss
Global Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilization
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
1. Top-down/Supply-side actions
2. High Carbon Price as main instrument
3. Climate Focused Technology Push
Vision I: Climate Centric Scenario
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Million Ton CO2
Others
CCS
Device Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Electricity (Fuel Switch)
Base
CT
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Million Ton CO2
OthersOthers
CCS
Device EfficiencyDevice Efficiency
Renewable Energy Renewable Energy
Electricity (Fuel Switch)Electricity (Fuel Switch)
Base
CT
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
LCS with Sustainability
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
India: National Climate Change Action Plan
8 National Missions:
1. Solar Energy (100 MW PV/yr; 1000 MW Thermal by 2017)
2. Enhanced energy efficiency (10000 MW saving by 2012)
3. Sustainable habitat
4. Water Sector (20% water use efficiency improvement)
5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system
6. A “Green India” (6 Mil. Hectare afforestation; Forest cover from 23 to 33%)
7. Sustainable agriculture
8. Strategic knowledge for climate change
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock-ins
Long-term Vision
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
National Socio-economicObjectives and Targets
Global Climate ChangeObjectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
LCS with Sustainability
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
1. Low Carbon Price
2. Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions
3. Behavioural Change
4. Diverse Technology Portfolio
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
OthersCCS
Transport Mode
Urban Planning
ConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsAppliance Efficiency
Renewable Energy Building
Electricity (Fuel Switch)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Million Ton CO2
Renewable Energy Renewable
Vision II: Sustainability Scenario
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Sustainable Cities: Planning and Infrastructures
• Land-use Planning
• Building Choices
• Infrastructures
• Service Networks
Technologies for Train Corridors
Bus Rapid Transport System
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Dematerialization
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Demand (Million Ton)
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Demand (Million Ton)
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
Cement
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand (Million Ton)
Steel
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
SocietyDemand (Million Ton)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Steel
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Conventional
Development
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Demand (Million Ton)
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Paper
Demand (Trillion Ton-Kms)
0
1000
2000
3000
Conventional
Development
Sustainable
Society
Transport
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of Energy Choices
CoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia
Integrated EnergyIntegrated Energy--Water MarketWater Market
0.031050 Million TonSO2
0.98359Total
0.08285.1 Billion TonCO2 Equiv.
0.8732160 Exa JouleEnergy
% GDP$ BillionBenefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030
Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits
• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)
• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)
• Flood control (MDG1&7)
• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)
MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability
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India
China
Iran
Pakistan
Afghanistan
OmanMyanmar (Burma)
Thailand
Nepal
Turkmenistan
Saudi Arabia
Tajikistan
Yemen
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Bhutan
Uzbekistan
Somalia
United Arab Emirates
Qatar
Laos
Malaysia
Bahrain
IndonesiaMaldives
Pune
GayaKota
Guna
Gadag
Kochi
Patna
Delhi
Anand
Dadra
SuratOlpad
Kalol
Panvel
Hassan
Dispur
Ambala
Nangal
Kanpur
Jhansi
UjjainJhabua
Valsad
NadiadRajkot
SolapurGuhagarChiptun
Chennai
Nellore
Kolkata
Sangrur
Sonipat
AuraiyaGwalior
Chotila Bharuch
Palmaner
Chittoor
Kokinada
Ludhiana
Bathinda
Bareilly
Vijaypur
Mahesana
Tutikorin
Mangalore
Bangalore
Vijaywada
Faridabad
Ratnagiri
Kayankulam
Coimbatore
Jagdishpuri
Shahjahanpur
Vishakhapattnam
Tiruchchirappalli
Herat
MultanQuetta
Khuzdar
Karachi
Delaram
Kandhar
South-ParsIranshaharBandar-e-Abbas
Legend Important Places
Existing Gas Pipelines
Proposed Gas Pipelines
Existing LNG terminals
Proposed LNG terminals
Existing Gas Basin
Gas Pipelines under construction
Proposed Gas Basin¨
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
LCS with Lower Carbon Prices
Base Case
Conventional Society
Sustainable Society
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2020 2030 2040
Price CO2 (US $/tCO2)
2050
CO2 Price
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Water Availability: DELHI
BHAKRA CANAL
BHAKRA MAIN BRANCH
NARWANA BRANCH
NANGAL DAM
ROPAR H /W
WESTERN YAMUNA CANAL
EASTERN YAMUNA CANAL
RENUKA DAM
DADAHU
DAM
KESHAU DAM
LEKHWAR DAMTEHR IDAM
TA JEW ALA
H/W
HAR IDWAR
H /W
UPPER GANGA CANAL
MURADNAGAR
OFFTAKE
DELHI DI STRIBUTORY
PARALLEL CHANNEL
RIVER YAMUNA
WAZ IRABAD BA RRAGE
W AZ IRA BAD BARRAGE
OKHLA BARRAGE
RI VER YAMUNA
HINDON CUT
HA IDERPUR WW I (100 MGD)
HAIDERPUR WW II (100 MGD )
CHANDRAWAL WW II (55 MGD)
CHANDRAWAL
WW I (55 MGD)
WAZIRABAD
WW (120 MGD)
NANGLO I W TP (40 MGD )
BAWANA W TP
(20 MGD )SON IA VIHAR W TP (140 MGD)
BHAGIRATHI W TP (100 MGD)
AGRA CANAL
GURGAON CANAL
O KHLA W TP (20 MGD)
OKHLA GW TP
(12 MGD)
DWARKA W TP
(40 MGD)
RAW WATERARRANGEMENT
Yamuna: 310 MGD
Ganga: 100 MGD
BBMB: 140 MGD
Ground: 100 MGD
Water Demand
Population
Population and Water Demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2001 2021 2051 2071 2091 2101
Year
Population (Millions)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Water Demand (MGD)
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Water Availability: DELHI
Existing and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi (without Climate Change)
Water Supply from Various Sources
310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310
140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140
100 100240 240 240 240 240 240 2400 0
80 80 80 80 80 80 80
0 0
45 45 45 45 45 45
100 100
135 135 135 135 135 135 135
0 0
0 0
440
865 865 865 865
0 0
0
200
200
400 400 400 400
0 0
0
55
55 55 55 55
45
55
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101
Year
Yamuna river bed potential
NCR Augmentation (CGWB)
Additional Plan
Sub Surface Water
Recycling of Waste Water
Saving of Seepage
Upper Ganga Canal
BBMB
Yamuna River
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Water Availability: DELHI
Existing and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi under Climate Change
Water Supply from Various Sources Under Climate Change
310 372 372 372 372248 248
140168 168 144.2 128.8
120.4 116.2
100
288 288247.2 220.8
206.4 199.2
0 0
80 8080
80
80 800 0
4545
45
45 45100
135 135135
135
135 135
0 0
0 0
462692
648.75 631.45
0 0
0
200
200
400
400 400
0 0
0
55
55
55 55
248310
112140
192100
8045
45
135
100
501.7
400
55
55
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101
Year
Yamuna river bed potential
NCR Augmentation (CGWB)
Additional Plan
Sub Surface Water
Recycling of Waste Water
Saving of Seepage
Upper Ganga Canal
BBMB
Yamuna River
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
LCS Scenarios and Modeling: Next Plans
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Sustainability: Domains, Elements and Actions
Sustainability Domains
DomainTypologies
Actions/Instruments(Examples)
How can preferences be shaped & aligned with sustainability
goals?
What are the drivers of key socio-politico-
economic development processes?
Processes/ Institutions
How do human and natural
systems evolve? How do they interact?
How to sustain & enhance capital
stocks in interest of present & future generations?
Capital Stocks
Systems
• Natural
• Man-made
• Human
• Social
• Globalization
• Urbanization
• Industrialization
• Public
• Private/Personal
• Community
Conservation, Tax
Design, Standards
Investments, Access
Awareness, Media
Water Management, Trade
Cap & Trade, Eco-funds
Market Reforms, Tariffs
Zoning, User Charges
Competition, R&D
Social Security
Choices, Freedoms
• Human (e.g. Food System)
• Natural (e.g. Environment)
Preferences
Key Elements(Examples)
Natural Resources, Ecology
Buildings, Infrastructures
Education, Health
Institutions, Social Networks
Diets, Technologies
Climate Change, Bio-diversity
Trade, Migration
Urban Planning, Regulations
Industry Structure, Innovation
Rights, Equity, Public Goods
Lifestyle, Savings
Norms, Customs, Traditions Dialogue, Media
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
LCS Scenarios: Next Step
Conventional Sustainability
LCS Scenarios with Stabilization Targets
Baseline
StabilizationTargets
Scenarios
Geography Level
2.68.4 2.68.44.6 4.6
Radiative ForcingW/m2
Global Regional National Global Regional National
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
• LCS Scenarios to focus on:– Behavioral Changes, Innovations and Co-benefits
– Up-front decisions to avoid long-term lock-ins
• Sustaining Capital Stocks– Natural, Man-made, Human & Social
• Use Systems Approach for Analysis– Integration, Holistic/Long-term Vision, Dynamic Assessment
• Interventions to influence Drivers of Change– Assess and influence Processes
– Institutions (to reduce transaction costs/risks and to sustain change)
• Shaping Stakeholder and Societal Preferences– Information, Awareness, Debates to arrived at informed choices
Next Plan: LCS Scenarios with Sustainability
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
•Mainstream climate actions in development plans– Include sustainability policies in Baseline
– Pay attention to that avoids lock-ins into high emissions paths
– Ensure bottom-up actions coordinate with top-down vision and policies
•Model ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’:
– Co-benefits as a positive-sum game
– AIM achieving LCS that meets global target at Low Carbon Price
– Focus on behavior and drivers that deliver Low Energy and Emissions Future
•Model exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization which are needed beyond sustainability policies
•Model adaptation to residual climate change, though in Low Carbon World climate risks shall be much lower
Next Plan: Modeling LCS with Sustainability
Thank you