Low Carbon Society in Asia: Activities in India · 2020. 2. 6. · 17.08 0 10 20 30 40 2005 2020...

Low Carbon Society in Asia: Activities in India

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India

Presented in The 17th AIM International WorkshopNational Institute for Environment Studies, Tsukuba, Japan February 17-19, 2012

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Overview of Activities (2011-12)

1. Low Carbon Society Framing and Modeling

2. National Assessments

3. India in the Global Modeling Exercises

4. Capacity Building, Publications, Dissemination

5. Year 2012-13: Way Forward


Green Growth: Low Carbon and Inclusive Society

• Mapping Transitions– Demographic; Urban/Rural; Income; Behavior (e.g. consumption);

Institution

• Economics: Paradigm Shift– Cooperation & Co-benefits (e.g. energy security, AQ)– Finance (discount rates)

• Policies – Technology: Infrastructures; Targeted R&D + industry– Coordinate policies to gain co-benefits – Global carbon price

LCS Framing: Rio+20


DATABASES-Socio -Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai nts

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER -MARKALModel

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

elA

IM Strategic D

atabase(SD

B)

DATABASES

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

Socio‐Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment

AIM CGE/GCAM‐IIM

ANSWER‐MARKALModel

AIM ExSSEnd‐Use Dem

and

Mod

elScenario D

atabase

Soft‐Linked Integrated Model Systems (SLIM)

Transport Demand Model Transport Database

Transport Model

Soft-Linked Integrated Model System: (SLIM)

Sustainable Transport Indicators Database


National Assessments: ANSWER-MARKAL Model


Draft

National Climate Policies & Programs


GDP, Energy, Emissions : Growth Scenarios

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mto

e

High Growth Medium growth Low Growth

Primary Energy

7880

658

2193

6175

3542

1524

10883

4718

1848

15131

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

2005 2020 2035 2050

Low Growth Medium Growth High Growth

GDP/capita (US $2005)

2.80

7.27

3.39

9.69

23.59

4.03

12.68

32.80

17.08

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2020 2035 2050

Low Growth Medium Growth High Growth

GDP (GDP in 2005 = 1)

Carbon Emissions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

mt-C

O2

High

Medium

Low

Growth Scenarios

Typical LCS Trajectory


National Assessments:Case of Transport Sector


Energy Demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050D

eman

d (M

toe)

Bio fuels

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Transport Energy Demand : Base Case

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Dem

and

(Mto

e)

Hydrogen

Bio fuels

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Transport Energy Demand : 2 deg C Conventional Scenario

0

50

100

150

200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Dem

and

(Mto

e)

Hydrogen

Bio fuels

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Transport Energy Demand : 2 deg C Sustainability Scenario


Train Corridors

Haryana Dadri

J.N.Port

Rajasthan

Maharashtra

GujaratMadhya Pradesh

Haryana

Uttar Pradesh

Infrastructures to Overcome Lock-ins


Low Carbon Mobility Plan MethodologyObjective: To align policies to realize co-benefits and avoid adverse lock-ins• Local – National – Global• Short-term – Long-term• Top-down – Bottom-up• Macro - Micro

Indicators: • Socio-Economic (e.g. Affordability/Access/Safety)• Environment (e.g. Carbon Emissions, Air Quality)• Technical (e.g. Vehicle Efficiency Standards)• Strategic (e.g. Energy Security, Investment)

Decisions: • Modes • Vehicles/Technologies• Pricing


National Assessments:Nuclear Technology


Primary Energy – Base and 450C

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

mto

e

Base

2020 2030 2040 2050

450C

20100

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

mto

eNuclear Cost Scenarios:(1X Scenario): Nuclear Power Capital Cost Trajectory as in Base(1.5X Scenario): 1.5 X Nuclear Power Capital Cost Trajectory as in Base(2X Scenario): 2 X Nuclear Power Capital Cost Trajectory as in Base

Non Com Biomass

Com Biomass

Other REN

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas

Oil

Coal

Non Com Biomass

Com Biomass

Other REN

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas

Oil

Coal


Nuclear Share in Primary Energy (Nuclear Cost Scenarios)

1.9%3.0%

6.0%

1.0%1.7%

5.8%

12.2%

14.6%

1.0% 0.9%

2.7%

5.1%6.1%

12.4%

14.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1x 1.5x 2x


INDIA in theGlobal Modeling Exercises


Global Modeling Exercises + India

1.AIM/CGE: IPCC RCP 6.0 W/m2

2.Asia Modeling Exercise (AME)

3.AMPERE

4.LIMITS

5.POEM


LCS modeling: Space / Time Dimensions

ExSS-Kyoto ExSS-Ahmedabad

v

TIMEShort‐term Long‐term

Glob

alLocal

SPAC

E

China India Japan Korea Nepal GLobal

GIR

AIM-LCSIPAC-LCS

PECE

ANSWER-MARKAL-IIMAIM-CGE

GCAM-IIM

GRAPE

MARKAL


Assessments with AIM/CGE


Assessment with AIM/CGE

CCS: 16.7%End use eff: 8%

Renewables: 31%Non-energy: 34.5%

CCS: 26%Renewables: 34%Non-energy: 34.5%

Export: 10%End use eff: 8.3%


Primary Energy Trends

Biomass key energy source in all CM scenarios

Food vs. Fuel Security concerns


Kaya Identity

CM3 (participating in emissions trading regime) advances mitigation in the decade on 2030 and 2040


Assessments with GCAM


Nuclear Price Sensitivity - BAU

• Non-fuel cost for nuclear increased by 50%

• Nuclear share in BAU decreases significantly with higher nuclear prices

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Technology share- BAU

Coal Gas Oil Nuclear

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Technology Share- BAU with High Nuclear Cost

Biomass Hydro Wind Solar

Electricity Mix


Nuclear Price Sensitivity- Climate Policy

• Climate Policy (LC Scenario) increases nuclear penetration compared to BAU

• Higher nuclear price reduces penetration of nuclear significantly

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Technology Share- Policy

Coal Coal w/CCS Gas Gas w/CCS Oil Nuclear

Electricity Mix


Biomass & CCS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Biomass-BAU w/o target

Biomass-BAU with targets

BioCCS-Policy w/o target

BioCCS-Policy with targets

Other CCS-Policy w/o target

Other CCS-Policy with targets

For Low Carbon Scenario CCS comes with: a. Biomass (BioCCS)b. Other fossil fuels (other CCS)


2011-2012Capacity Building,

Publications, Dissemination


• LCS-RNet Workshop Paris

• International Energy Workshop: IEW (Stanford)

• IAMC Meetings

• IPCC Scenario Workshops

• National Workshops on Low Carbon Transport

Capacity Building/ Dissemination


• UNEP Bridging the Emissions Gap Report

• LCS Overview Paper for AME (under review)

• RCP 6.0 W/m2 Paper (in Climatic Change)

• IPCC AR5 (Under preparation)

• UNEP Foresight Report

Publications


Year 2012-13: Way Forward


Durban Platform for Enhanced Actions (Building on the Bali Action Plan, Copenhagen & Cancun Agreements)

Modeling and Assessment of Domestic Actions• Coal tax and recycling of tax funds for clean energy

• Enhanced Energy Efficiency measures (e.g. PAT with EE Certificates, CAFE)

• Renewable Energy Push (e.g. RE Certificates)

• Mission on Sustainable Habitat (e.g. LEED Rated Buildings, Low Carbon Cities)

Modeling and Assessment of International Actions• UNFCCC Instruments

– CDM and NAMAs– UNFCCC Funds (e.g. Green Climate Fund)

• Bilateral Actions– Tech Transfer (e.g. CCS)– JVs (e.g. Transport: High Speed Rail, Freight Corridors)

• 20 to 25% Emissions Intensity Reduction from 2005 to 2020 (1.5 - 1.9% decoupling)• Per Capita Emissions Below OECD Average (for ever)• MRV/ICA (International Consultation and Analysis) of Domestic Actions (India’s Proposal at Cancun)


Ludhiana City‐ Population 1613878

Low Carbon Mobility Plans for CitiesPopulation >10

Million5-10 Million

2-5 Million

1-2 Million

No of cities 3 5 11 34

Rajkot City‐ Population 1,390,933

Visakhapatnam City‐ Population 1730320


• LCS Modeling & Methodology Developments

• LCS Roadmap Assessments

• Science and Policy Contributions

• Capacity Building

• Dissemination

India Activities: 2012-13

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Low Carbon Society in Asia: Activities in India · 2020. 2. 6. · 17.08 0 10 20 30 40 2005 2020...

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