Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210

8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210

1/23

Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary

Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company

LoyaltyRecommendation for a New Nielsen Service


2/23



Loyalty

Why? Audience Loyalty is a key indicator of aprograms success: it illustrates theprograms staying power of course, butits also been shown to correlate stronglywith an audiences attitude towards the

programs branding environment (i.e.commercial spots, sponsorships andproduct integrations)

In short, the more loyal the audience,the more receptive it is to thecommercial messages*

* That correlation has been demonstrated and quantified in multiple consumerpsychology studies, including Nielsens own 2006-08 Product Placement Valuation Study


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What is Loyalty?

Source: 2006-08 Product PlacementValuation Study - 12,145 respondents

60 broadcast/cable TV programs acrossall genres, mostly weekly series

How often to do watch that series?

I dontwatch it

only onoccasion

half ofthe time

nearlyalways

everytime

no, definitely not

no, not really

yes, Id say so

yes, most definitely

Do you consideryourself a loyal viewer

of that series?


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What is Loyalty?

Based on these results, we could start bydefining loyalty has having watched atleast 50% of all episodes (frequency) ina regular series, and deeming that a

viewer watched an episode as long ashe/she watched it for at least half of itsair time (duration)

* That correlation has been demonstrated and quantified in multiple consumerpsychology studies, including Nielsens own 2006-08 Product Placement Valuation Study


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Top Shows by Loyalty

M35-64

24 (FOX) 30%CSI (CBS) 29%

NCIS (CBS) 27%Two And A Half Men (CBS) 27%

American Idol (FOX) 25%

Once a definition is in place,we can rank all TV shows

based on audience loyalty.

For example in the Spring of2007, based on the abovedefinition, the top 5 shows

for Men of age 35-64 were:

percentage of theshows audiencethats loyal tothat show:

Source: Nielsen National Panel Spring 2007193 primetime shows on the following networks:

ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, NBC, WB, A&E, BRAVO, HGTV, MNT, MTV, TLC


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Other Demos

F02-34

Greys Anatomy (ABC) 31%American Idol (FOX) 28%

Project Runway (BRAVO) 28%Lost (ABC) 25%

Desperate Housewives (ABC) 24%

F35-64

Greys Anatomy (ABC) 40%American Idol (FOX) 37%

Desperate Housewives (ABC) 35%CSI (CBS) 33%

CSI: Miami (CBS) 30%

M02-34

Family Guy (FOX) 22%Lost (ABC) 22%

24 (FOX)

21%The Office (NBC) 21%

Heroes (NBC) 19%

M35-64

24 (FOX) 30%CSI (CBS) 29%

NCIS (CBS)

27%Two And A Half Men (CBS) 27%

American Idol (FOX) 25%


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Duration

The requirement towatch at least half ofan episodes air time

may be too stringent.

Were bringing it downto 6 minutes forconsistency with

industry creditingstandards*

Source: 24 (FOX) May 2009 Persons 02-99*This adjustment doesnt take away from the discriminative value of loyalty scoring

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60

duration requirement threshold (minutes)

loya

lt

y


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Window

It is also important tostandardize the time

window over whichloyalty is computed:

the commitment towatch 2 out of 4

episodes isnt thesame as that neededto watch 6 out of 12

Source: Nielsen National Panel NPower Quad Analyses

GREYS ANATOMY

demo F02-99

Spring 09

# telecasts 13

ABC

cume aud 51.0M

20 pct

40 pct

60 pct

80 pct

100 pct

Loyalty level

% of shows audience

36%

26%

14%

3%

1%

GREYS ANATOMY

demo F02-99

Fall 09

# telecasts 5

ABC

cume aud 38.9M

20 pct

40 pct

60 pct

80 pct

100 pct

Loyalty level

% of shows audience

58%

46%

38%

28%

19%


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Standard Definitions

Duration: A minimum of 6 minutes for each telecast

Frequency: 20% | 40% | 60% | 80% | 100% of all telecastsin the time window (to provide a more complete picturethan simply looking at half of the telecasts)

Time Window: Wide enough to encompass 5 consecutive telecasts

Were proposing to adopt the following standards:


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Scoring

Loyalty Intensity for aWeekly Network Series:

Low: if a user viewed 1/5 telecastModerate: if a user viewed 2/5 telecastsMedium: if a user viewed 3/5 telecastsHigh: if a user viewed 4/5 telecastsExtreme: if a user viewed 5/5 telecasts

Sources: Nielsen National Panel NPower Quad Analyses

We then establish what percentage of the audience fits each ofthe above loyalty intensity categories, out of all viewers ofthat program (i.e. out of all those who came in contact withthat program over that time period, even if its only for oneminute)

Scoring:


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Example #1: 24

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

04/16/09

150

50

300

200

100

250

persons(millions)

In the 5 weeks leadingup to (and including)04/16/09, 53.8 millionpersons had watched atleast one minute of theshow; we refer to themas viewers

04/06/09

viewers

55.4% watched 1 out of 5 telecasts(and at least 6 minutes of it);

38.3% watched 2 out of 5;



14.7% watched all 5;

Of those:

show

demo

network

viewing

24

P02-99

Live+7

FOX

Loyalty over the 5 weeks leading up to 04/16/09


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24 - Longitudinal View

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

02/02/09 05/18/09

percentage ofviewers within eachloyalty intensitycategory

rolling 5-wk window

season

finale

extreme

high

medium

moderate

low

loyalty intensity

show

demo

start

end

network

viewing

24

P02-99

05/18/09

Live+7

FOX

01/11/09

Replicating the analysis over the course of the entire season


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24 - Loyalty vs. Ratings

5%

AA% 4.5%3.8%

Not surprisingly, the low-loyalty curve matches thegradual decline in AA% overthe season

However, the extreme-loyalty curve grows steadilyover the course of theseason (from 12.9% to15.2% of viewers)

showdemo

start

end

network

viewing

24P02-99

05/18/09

Live+7

FOX

01/11/09

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

02/02/09 05/18/09


rolling 5-wk window

season

finale

15.2%12.9%


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Implications

Demographics: Further research can replicate the aboveanalysis for various demographic / lifestagepopulation groups and pinpoint wheregrowth/drops in loyalty are coming from

Currency: In the previous example, as the shows totalaudience decreased, the quality of thataudience arguably increased. A syndicatedservice that regularly reports on audiencequality (% loyalty + longitudinal changes)has the potential to become part of thecurrency, or at the very least integral part of

upfront negotiations. The implication isprofound for the continued relevance ofNielsens ratings services


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Recommendations

1. Use NPower to prototype a new syndicated service

2. Form a client steering committee to guide design efforts

3. Formulate 2010 development plan

4. Publish top rankings on the Nielsen Wire

It is currently very difficult to manually use NPower to perform the above

analyses on a regular basis. Quad segmentations only represented 1.5%of all NPower queries in 2009, and most clients appear to use them tovalidate advertising schedules rather than quantify audience loyalty.

Nevertheless, the data and underlying functionalities are already presentin NPower. We thus propose to:


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Appendix

Slides 17-19 Example #2: GREYS ANATOMYImpact of Reruns and SpecialsDefinition Adjustment

Slides 20-21 Example #3: THE AMAZING RACEDrill down to P25-54

Slides 22-23 Example #4: BIG BROTHERDemographic Differences


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Example #2: GREYS ANATOMY

show

demo

start

end

network

viewing

GREYS ANATOMY

P02-99

05/14/09

Live+7

ABC

09/25/08

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

10/30/08 05/14/09


rolling 5-wk window

season

finale

extreme

high

medium

moderate

low

loyalty intensity


18/23



GREYS ANATOMY

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

10/30/08 05/14/09


rolling 5-wk window

season

finale

showdemo

start

end

network

viewing

GREYS ANATOMYP02-99

05/14/09

Live+7

ABC

09/25/08

5%

AA%

6.1%

6.8%

The dips in AA% correspondto specials and reruns

However, our definition ofloyalty is too strict in thiscase: its unfair to ask ofsomeone to watch all rerunsin order to qualify as ahighly loyal viewer

1.2%

The consequences for loyaltyappear to be dramatic

Impact of Reruns and Specials


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GREYS ANATOMY

showdemo

start

end

network

viewing

GREYS ANATOMYP02-99

05/14/09

Live+7

ABC

09/25/08

We thus restrict the analysisto original telecasts only

Loyalty levels are solid, yetthe interference of reruns

early in the season appearsto prevent loyalty fromdeveloping further

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

10/30/08 05/14/09


rolling 5-originals window

season

finale

5%

AA%

6.8%5.4%

Definition Adjustment


20/23



Example #3: THE AMAZING RACE

showdemo

start

end

network

viewing

AMAZING RACEP02-99

12/06/09

Live+7

CBS

09/27/09

Steady increase in AA%over the course of theseason

i.e. the buildup of extremeloyalty for the show outpacedthe shows ratings improvementby a factor of 3.4

While AA% increased by 8%,extreme loyalty increased by27%

5%

AA%

4.1%

4.4%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

10/25/09 12/06/09


rolling 5-wk window

season

finale

11.2%

8.8%


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THE AMAZING RACE

showdemo

start

end

network

viewing

AMAZING RACEP25-54

12/06/09

Live+7

CBS

09/27/09

Drilling down to P25-54, thebuildup of extreme loyalty for

the show outpaced the showsratings improvement by a factorof 7.1: more than twice that ofthe general population 20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

10/25/09 12/06/09


rolling 5-wk window

season

finale

13.7%

10.4%

5%

AA%

4.7%

4.9%

Drill down to P25-54


22/23



Example #4: BIG BROTHER

showdemo

start

end

network

viewing

BIG BROTHERP02-99

09/15/09

Live+7

CBS

07/09/09

Big Brother airs three times aweek. Extreme loyalty for the

show appears to peak threeweeks before the season finale

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

07/19/09 09/15/09


rolling 5-wk window

season

finale

8.6%6.7%

10.8%

5%

AA%

2.3%2.6%


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BIG BROTHER

showdemo

start

end

network

viewing

BIG BROTHERmultiple

09/15/09

Live+7

CBS

07/09/09

P50-64 dominate the ratings butare the least loyal to the show

F18-34 are on par with thegeneral population ratings

throughout the season, but arenearly twice as loyal to the show

than the rest of the population

Loyalty among P35-49 starts towane mid-season, earlier than for

the other age groups

Demographic Differences

P02-99

P18-34

M18-34

F18-34

P50-64

P35-49

07/19/09 09/15/09

extremeloyalty (5/5)

rolling 5-wk window

seasonfinale

5%

10%

15%

20%

07/19/09 09/15/09

AA%

avg 5-wk

seasonfinale

4%

3%

2%

1%

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