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The Impacts of TOD: From Regional Land Use PerspectiveDo Kim, Ph.D.
Department of Urban and Regional Planning
California State Polytechnic University - Pomona
Jack R. Widmeyer Transportation Research Conference
INTRODUCTION
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Introduction
• This presentation focuses on how Transit Oriented Development (TOD) impacts on future regional land use and transportation conditions.
• By comparing with other land use alternatives, this presentation provides quantitative evidences on how much positive impacts TOD can bring.
• This presentation also points out a unique land use scenario planning approach, which is a community stakeholder driven process combined with a cutting-edge GIS simulation technology.
Project Overview• Land use scenario planning in conjunction with 2035
Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) of North Florida Transportation Planning Organization
• Exploring alternative land use concepts and the associated long term transportation impacts and opportunities
• By Design, a TOD oriented land use alternative is compared with other land use concepts.
Base of Land Use Alternatives
• Developing future land use alternatives in the region in order to accommodate projected population and employment growth
County2005 Increment 2005-2035 Annual Growth Rate
Population Employment Population Employment Population Employment
Clay 184,624 47,374 132,176 25,270 1.84% 1.44%
Nassau 67,681 20,213 38,819 10,782 1.52% 1.44%
St. Johns 157,981 65,666 168,382 35,027 2.45% 1.44%
Duval 855,572 509,112 362,428 271,564 1.18% 1.44%
Total 1,262,795 642,365 701,805 342,643 Avg .1.48% Avg. 1.44%
Four Scenarios
• Scenario A – Concentric Outer Growth
• Scenario B – North-South Centers Growth
• Scenario C – Satellite Centers Growth
• Scenario D – Transit Centers Growth
Scenario A – Concentric Outer Growth• Outer growth into vacant
and undeveloped lands outside the existing urbanized areas
• Supporting expanded highway network with limited transit options
Scenario B – North South Centers Growth• Growth in an outward
direction away from existing urbanized areas and into the region’s north and southeast quadrants
• Supporting north-south commuter rail transit and continued highway investment
Scenario C – Clustered Satellite Centers Growth
• Outer growth along key transportation corridors and strong redevelopment strategy in old urban areas
• Supporting moderate levels of transits and continued highway investment
Scenario D – Transit Centers Growth• Redevelopment
concentrating in major urban areas and development along future commuter rail and other transit
• Supporting most robust transit network for the region
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
Place Type Oriented Modeling• Community elements - pedestrian shed
• ¼ mile diameter area (40 acres)
• Combination of different development types (building types) in the shed
Creation of Community Element
1/4 mi
Land use detail
Non-Developable Developable
Park 2 % SF House 3 %
Retention 2 % Apartment 12 %
Road 15 % Mixed Use 6 %
Civic 15 % Retail 12 %
Parking 5 % Office 28 %
Total 39 % Total 61 %
GRAND TOTAL 100 %
Dwelling Units/Acre 5
Non-Residential FAR 0.72
Community Element for the Project
Scenario Development Workshop
Chip set play
Scenarios by Participants
From Chips to Data
• Converting allocated chips by the public to GIS data by CorPlan
• Land use / transportation planners interpreted chips and perform minor modification in order to make the allocations fit in areas
Building Type Modeling
Any types of buildings can be modeled, even parcel without a building like park or parking lot
Creation of Community Elements
Allocation of Community Elements
Allocation Results Review
• Summary Interface
• Providing socio-economic data based on allocation
• Keeping tracking allocation in overall or in particular areas
Selection of an Alternative
SCENARIO COMPARISON
OverviewPerformance Measure Criteria
% of new jobs by County% of new jobs located within 1/2 mile of proposed premium transit corridor
% of new jobs located within 1/2 mile of fixed route bus corridor
% of new jobs located within 1 mile of proposed premium transit corridor
% of new jobs located within 1 mile of fixed route bus corridor
% of new Jobs Located within 2miles from the Beltline% of new Jobs Located within Downtown Jacksonville
% of new jobs located within walkable communities
% of agricultural land in total developed area
% of existing agricultural land remaining "Un-Urbanized"
% of new population located within 1/2 mile of premium transit corridor
% of new population located within 1/2 mile of regular transit corridor
% of new population located within 1 mile of premium transit corridor
% of new population located within 1 mile of regular transit corridor
% of new Population Located within 2 mile from Beltline
% of New Population Located within Downtown Jacksonville
% of new population accommodated by townhouse or multifamily housing
% of wetlands in total developed area
% of wetlands consumed
Total acreage of urbanized lands
Total acreage of existing agricultural lands converted to urbanized lands
Total acreage of wetlands converted to urbanized lands
Persons per acre of developed lands (efficiency of urbanized land)
% of new households accommodated by redevelopment
% of jobs accommodated by redevelopment
Lands for Development
More Transit Components
Development Along Transit CorridorWithin ½ mile of proposed premium transit corridor
More Transit Components
CBD Infill and Redevelopment
More Transit Components
Density & Mixed Uses
COMPARISON WITH TREND
Trend• Forecasting future land use
patterns based on the future land use and development plans (DRIs) approved of submitted
Trend VS. Scenario DLand Consumption and Redevelopment
Trend VS. Scenario DDensity and mixed uses
Trend VS. Scenario DTransit
u
Trend VS. Scenario D
-7%
-15%
7%
None
Traffic
Trend VS. Scenario D
-22%
-10%
-6%
Traffic and air quality
SUMMARY
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Lessons Learned
• Transit Oriented Development can save significant amount of agricultural and environmental lands and also improve traffic flows and air quality.
• When TODs are combined with highway development, careful consideration is required in terms of locations and spacing of TODs.
• In the case that there is strong infill and redevelopment trends in a region, TODs can be an excellent development option connecting redevelopment hubs and supporting balanced development
