+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km...

Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km...

Date post: 20-Nov-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 2 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
73
Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics LETS Governing transitions towards Low carbon Energy and Transport Systems for 2050 Tekniska åtgärder inom transportsektorn LETS Gods WS 8 februari 2011 Sten Wandel Professor Teknisk Logistik Lunds Universitet
Transcript
Page 1: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

LETSGoverning transitions towards Low carbon Energy

and Transport Systems for 2050

Tekniska åtgärder inom transportsektorn

LETS Gods WS 8 februari 2011

Sten Wandel

Professor Teknisk LogistikLunds Universitet

Page 2: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

5 Logistics Revolutions

Base Innovations1. Land, Farm, City, 2. Transport, Storage, Infrastruct. Wheel, Sail, Rail, Airplane, Tube, 3. Pay, Finance, Risk Coin, Bill, Share, Insurance, 4. Transformation, Energy, Material Steam, Combustion, Electricity,5. Information, Knowledge Letter, Phone, Transistor, Internet

Each base develops over time Developments in leaps - Revolutions

Page 3: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

De fem logistikrevolutionerna

Teknisk innovation Organisatorisk innov.1. Husdjur, åker,

byggnader,, vägar Allians med matleverantörer, Byteshandel, byar

2. Hjul, segel, amfora, frys, lastpall Produktion & konsumtion separerades i tid & rum

3. Mynt, sedel, finansiella instrument, avtal, försäkring

Handel & spekulation

4. Ångmaskin, elmotorn, standardisering

Mekanisering, specialisering Skalfördelar, Järnväg, värdekedjor

5. Telegraf, radio, transistor, Farmor, boken, universitet

Integration, kundspecifikt, platsoberoende

Varje revolution hade specifika platser och gruppersom vinnare resp. förlorare

Page 4: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Sjöfartens produktivitetsutveckling

Lastförmåga[ton]

Besättning[sjömän]

Hastighet[Km/h]

Produktivitet[Tonkm perMantimme]

Ekstock 0,2 1 5 1

Vikingaskepp 10 14 7 5

Hansakogg 100 14 10 71

Atlantångare 5 000 30 25 4 167

Oljetanker 400 000 14 30 857 143

4

Page 5: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

P

PP

I

I

P P

PP I

Production

Handicraft Industrial Era

Glocal Production Central Production

Customer

Inventory

NetworkCoordinator

2020 1990

19001500

Logistics Revolutions impact Industry Structure

Standard ProductsMany StagesLarger Markets

Global ChainsEuropean DCBuy on InternetMass Customization

MP-3 Player, E-book Print on Demand PostponementFactory in the Box

Shoe makerLive Concert, PoetConstruction

Page 6: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Transport, Communication and LabelsEnables Supply Chain Revolutions

P

PP

I

I

P P

PPI

Production

Handicraft Industrial Era

Glocal Production Central Production

Customer

Inventory

NetworkCoordinator

2020 1990

19001500

Scale Economy - Production Cost + Transport Volume

Scope Economy + ICT / Vol / Quality - Transport Volume

Transport & Comm+ Speed +Reliability

Page 7: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Energikällor

Källa: C. Marchetti, 1998

Page 8: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Fakultet / Institution / Enhet / Dokument / Datum

En förändring är möjlig!Fjärrvärmen fossilfri på 30 år

Energitillgång vid lokal värmeproduktion under perioden 1960-2007.(K. Ericsson)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Dis

trict

hea

ting

prod

uctio

n (T

Wh)

OilNatural gas, incl. LPGCoalElectric boilersHeat pumpsIndustrial waste heatPeatMSWOther biomass fuelsTall oilWood fuels

Page 9: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Kraftkällor (kW) i industrin I USAUS

Källa: Ausebel & Marchetti, 1996

Page 10: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Page 11: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Shift av transportslag

Källa: C. Marchetti, 1998

Page 12: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Toppår och livslängd

Källa: C. Marchetti, 1998

Page 13: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Page 14: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Page 15: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Page 16: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Hitachis mu-chip Nya 64 ggr mindre vid Hårstråt. ex. “intelligent” papper

RFID taggarna blir försvinnande små

Blandas i papper, internetadress avläses med mobilen

Page 17: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

P2P - The ultimate internet all products and packages talk to each others

Internetcomputers

Internetusers

Today’sInternet

Shop-floor equipment

Trucks & Ships

Containers & Pallets

The ExtendedInternet

Individual item

Page 18: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 19: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

L

LWould you like to join me for a tripto SKF, gate 4 arriving 15.52 next week Friday?

Sorry but I am supposed to be there tomorrow att18.45. I will have to take an over-night truck!

Page 20: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Nästa 40 årenolika ”clock speed”

Människan:• 1,5 ny genration människor, barn vid 30, ändrade värderingar/beteenden• 10 decennier, ändrade attityder

Transportteknik:• 1 ny generation transportinfrastruktur eller transportslag• 2 nya generationer farkoster, 20 års livslängd, lastbilar 7, flygplan & båtar 30 år

Informations- och kommunikationsteknik:• 5 nya generationer mobil kommunikationsinfrastruktur, 8 års livslängd, • 9 G mobilnätet: alla människor, tamdjur, farkoster, paket, och prylar

uppkopplade. Internt of Things. • Klusters: Body Area Network, Personal Area Network, Intelligent Homes etc. • 13 nya generationer terminaler, 3 års livslängd, datorer, mobiltelefoner, trådlösa etiketter/sensorer/

Page 21: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Framework to reduce GHG emissions from logistics and freight transport

kWhemissionsCO

vehiclekmkWh

tonkmvehiclekm

tontonkm

GDPtonGDPemissionsCO 2

2 ×××××=

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

TRANSPORT INTENSITY

ENERGYINTENSITY

INVERSE VALUE

DENSITY

TRAFFICINTENSITY

EMISSIONSINTENSITY

• Technology?• Behavior?

Source: Fredrik Eng-Larsson

Page 22: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Minska CO2/kWh• Minskad kolmängd i drivmedel

– Utbyggnad av infrastruktur för biobränslen

• Minskad CO2 utsläpp– Carbon Capture, två tankar

• El-lastbilar: batteri, hybrid– Stadsdistribution?

• El-lastbilar: el frånvägen– 2010 Sladdlös TV– Korea induktion:10% en körfil

laddar batterier– Frankrike: el plattor– 2050?? Hälsoeffekt?

Page 23: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Koldioxidneutral energi för transporter

Biomassa Sol, vind, vatten Kol, CO2 lagringEtanol, metanol, väte biodiesel Elektricitet eller väte Elektricitet eller väte

Flyg Tåg Väg Sjöfart

Flyg och Sjöfart svårast!

Page 24: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Klimatnytta av Biobränslen

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Biogas-g

ödsel

Metanol-S

alix-å

kermark

Etanol-v

ete (bio)

Etanol-v

ete-grä

smark

(bio)

Bensin

Etanol-v

ete (ko

l)

Metanol-k

ol

Etanol-v

ete-to

rvmark

Rel

ativ

a ut

släp

p av

väx

thus

gase

r

"Bra" eller "dålig" klimatprestanda beror framför allt på följande:1. Bränsle i drivmedelsanläggningen? 2. Vilken odlingsmark & dess alternativa användning?3. Alternativ hantering av restprodukter & vad ersätter dessa?4. Lustgasutsläpp vid odling?

Page 25: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Professor Mats Alaküla LTH/Volvo

Battery requirements for electric propulsion

45 000 tons of batteries. The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible!

10 kg for 10 km Possible!

40 kg for 10 km Possible!

200 kg for 10 km Possible!

20 tons for 1000 km Not possible!

Page 26: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Alternative solutions + / -

Inductive ConductiveTop • Unrealistic due to size and

weight• Low efficiency• Visual impression

• Already in use• Low cost• Does not work for cars• Visual impression

Side • Works for all road vehicles• Unsafe for objects on

roadside• Low efficiency• Heavy, bulky and expensive• Only one lane possible

• Works for all road vehicles• Low cost• Unsafe for objects on

roadside• Only one lane possible

Under • Rugged and Safe• Expensive• Low efficiency• EMC

• Works for all road vehicles• Low cost• High efficiency• Safe and rugged?

Page 27: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Historic pictures

Page 28: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

INNORAIL, Bordeaux, I

INNORAIL developed for tram by Alstom/Spie, also called APS (Alimentation par Sol),sequential 8+3 meters sections. Used in Bordeaux, France

Page 29: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

INNORAIL ground level switched contact system.

Page 30: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

OLLEV Korea Inductive

Korean solution: “Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV)”$ 21 million / 2009 + $ 83 million / 201060 % Efficiency over 12 cm distance

Page 31: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

A Slide In Sweden means …• An installation cost of 4 MSEK/km or <

+10 % on new roads.• We have 20 000 km “Riksväg” in Sweden

• Total cost about 80 000 MSEK or 3.0 % of BNP

• We produce Gasoline and Diesel for about 50 000 MSEK annually, without taxes.

• If ALL Road Vehicles convert to Plug In + Slide in, then:• The El Energy Generation will increase with <

18 % of todays production of 150 TWh• The El Power Generation will increase with <

17 % of todays max capacity of 28 GWPossible!

• A real alternative (maybe the only) to fossil based transportation !

• Makes EVs and PHEVs, with 40-200 km range, long distance transport vessels

200 km

100

40

% of 28 GW

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Max17 % of Swedish

generation capacity

Page 32: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Energy to different vehicle types

Electric Energy Requirement,all road vehicles electric

[TWh]

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Commercial Vehicles

Non CommercialVehicles

Plug In

Plug In

Slide In

• All Swedish road vehicles consume about 90 TWh fossil fuels

• Sweden generate about 150 TWh electric energy

• If all road vehicles were electric, 27 TWh el would be enough:

• 17 TWh for Cars• 10 TWh for Heavy

• Technology Selection should apply to all road traffic

Page 33: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Conclusion so far …

• IF Slide In is implemented in roads, the consequence for road traffic is revolutionary• Energy use for transport cut by about 50 %• “Fuel” Cost Savings depending on energy price, currently -50..60 %• The fossil fuel dependence is eliminated

• The additional cost on the vehicle is low• The additional cost on the road is claimed to be about +

10% of the building cost for a new highway

• The concept should be taken seriously

Page 34: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Conclusions

• Any Road Transport can be Electric• Requires “Slide In” technology• Needs reasonable Electric Energy generation• Eliminates Fossil Fuel Dependence• Opens for all renewable “fuels”, including solar, wind, hydro,

wave, …

• But how?• Infrastructure• Charging stations• Use of bio fuels• Billing• …

Page 35: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Minska trafikintensiteten farkost*km/ton*km

• Öka andel tåg- och båttransport 20%->80%– Ex. Gröna korridorer, myter att grönt ökar logistikkostnader

• Större, längre farkoster– Ex. två lastbilssläp, tåg 630 m->1 300 m

• Automatisk trafikpolis, mobiltelefon med GPS, 10 000kr->200 kr– AU 2008: Access väg/tid, hastighet, vikt, vilotider, zoning budbilar– NL 2012: avgift CO2, trängsel, – Brobizz, elektroniska nr skyltar 250 kr->2 kr

• Färre större logistik hubar->färre, fullare och större farkoster• Tvingande samlastning i städer

– Ex. Borlänge, Holland, Köpenhamn

• Obligatorisk spotmarknad för ledig transportkapacitet

– Jmf IT-operatörer

Page 36: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

PBS ROAD CLASS EXISTING ROUTE

LEVEL 1 ACCESS (L1)* GENERAL ACCESS

LEVEL 2 ACCESS (L2) B-DOUBLE

LEVEL 3 ACCESS (L3) TYPE 1 ROAD TRAINS

LEVEL 4 ACCESS (L4) TYPE 2 ROAD TRAINS

* L1 roads would become the default classification, subject to existing local constraints on general access heavy vehicles

Network classification

Page 37: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.
Page 38: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Australiska Intelligent Access Program (IAP) alla lastbilar över 25 m

• General Access (1st Generation)

• Restricted Access (2nd Generation)

▲IAP the road forward//

▲ Intelligent Access (3rd

Generation)

Page 39: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.
Page 40: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Framework to reduce GHG emissions from logistics and freight transport

kWhemissionsCO

vehiclekmkWh

tonkmvehiclekm

tontonkm

GDPtonGDPemissionsCO 2

2 ×××××=

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

TRANSPORT INTENSITY

ENERGYINTENSITY

INVERSE VALUE

DENSITY

TRAFFICINTENSITY

EMISSIONSINTENSITY

• Technology?• Behavior?

Source: Fredrik Eng-Larsson

Page 41: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

GHG för produkts produktion, transport, användning och återvinning

D C B AD C B AD C B AD Transport Transport TransportC You A

GHG utsläpp

KundMonteringModul-tillverkning

Komponent-tillverkning

Page 42: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Kombi

Page 43: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Page 44: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Page 45: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

CO2 Reduction by Redesigning the Supply Chain

• Transportation modes• Order Consolidation• Sustainable Packaging• Vendor Managed Inventory• Central Warehouse• Postponement of packaging and

customization• Reduced Distance Between

Manufacturer and Customer• Various Combinations of the

Above

Source: Ali Pazirandeh

Page 46: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /46

Page 47: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Standard e-commerce

Producer Wholesaler ConsumerPackingcenter

On-linestore

volume

Unitcost

This model does not scale well.There is no breakthroughtechnology in the pipeline(other than Autopac)

70% godstransporter i städeri personbilar

Page 48: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

On-linestore

On-linestore

On-linestore

ProducerProducer

Autopac

Consumer

On-linestore

ProducerProducer

Autopac

volume

Unitcost Totally separating the order

generation process (“sellingthings”) from the order fulfillment process (“gettingthings from producer toconsumer”)

Page 49: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet / Teknik och samhälle / Trafik och väg /

Systematic savings are huge

Producer

AutopacLabor

Inventory

Premises

Transport

Damage&Loss

Savings

ObsolesencePotential savings amount to 4-7% of GDP

ILLUSTRATIVE

Page 50: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Tid2020 20502010

1. Historia och nuläge

3. Önskade lägesbilder

5. Deltids-station

4. Vägar6. Vägar

7. Teknisk utveckling

2. Omvärldsutveckling

8. Styrmedel

9. Konsekvenser av genomförande, utmaningar

LETS: Back Casting

Page 51: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Frågor?

Page 52: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Det finns gap mellan prognosticerad utveckling och målbilder för 2050

8090

100110120130140150160170180

1990 1997 2004 2011 2018 2050

Gap

BNP

-10%

Alternativa Samhällen medlåg CO2 förMax + 2 grader

CO2

tonkm

Page 53: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

EcoMobility: Öresundsregionen inkl Skåne fosilfritt 2020

1. TVN1: Green Logistics Hub– Green Corridors

2. TVN2: City Logistics

3. TVN3: Energy Carriers and Technology Systems

Page 54: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Perspektiv på framtiden

• Prognoser Sannolika utvecklingar

• Scenarier Möjliga utvecklingar

• Backcasting Önskade utvecklingar

Page 55: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Alternativa Scenarier för ”Low-Carbon” 2050

Frivilliga åtgärder

Tvingande åtgärder

Beteendeförändring

Teknikfix

Carbon Capture i farkostenTrådlös ström från vägen

CO2 märkningAvgift=samhälls-ekonomiskmarginalkostnad

Högt CO2 pris Påtvingad samlastningLastbil och flyg begränsas

InnovationerEntreprenörer

Page 56: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

2000

Flyg

Spår, kortväga

Bil, långväga

Buss, kortväga

Färja

Bil, kortväga

Gång

Ref. scenario 2050 med kraftig teknikeffektivisering

40 km

80 km

Reslängd/person och dag

Buss, långvägaSpår, långväga Cykel

Flyg

Spår, kortväga

Bil, långväga

Buss, kortväga

Färja

Bil, kortväga

Gång

Buss, långvägaSpår, långväga Cykel

Hållbart 2050Färja

Bil, kortväga

Flyg

Bil, långväga

Buss, kortvägaSpår, kortväga

Buss, långväga

Elbil

Spår, långvägaCykel

Gång

kWh/pkm

Scenarier för Sverige 2050persontransporter

Källa: Åkerman, Jonas & Höjer, Mattias, Energy Policy

Page 57: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Åtgärdsstrategier(tillgänglighet kontra mobilitet)

• Påverka efterfrågan på transporter– Planering, reglering, skatter, osv– Livsstil, konsumtion, distansarbete, virtuella möten

• Påverka val av färdmedel– Styr över till järnväg, båt, cykel– Planering, trängselavgifter, kollektivtrafik

• Påverka val av teknik– Energieffektiva fordon– Koldioxidsnåla energibärare (el, vätgas,

biodrivmedel)

Page 58: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Ekonomisk aktivitetRegional logistikintensitet= logistik kostnad/BNP bidrag

Page 59: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Öka värdedensiteten

• Mindre luft i förpackningar– Primära– Sekundära– Transportförpackning– Ex. Ikea Glimma (31% färre

pallar)

• Dematerialisera– ”Tjänstefikation”– E-böcker, E-service

Page 60: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 61: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 62: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 63: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

2.60 m wide and18 m longsince ......?

(or 25.25 m long)

EU?

Page 64: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 65: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Containers,

Sizes and equipments

Page 66: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 67: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 68: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 69: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 70: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 71: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Page 72: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lund University / Department of Industrial Management and Logistics

Source – Gartner Group 2003

‘Gartner “Hype Cycle”

Page 73: Lunds universitet i världsklass · The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible! 10 kg for 10 km Possible! ... 10% of the building cost for a new highway ... Komponent-tillverkning.

Lunds universitet, 2010-08-24


Recommended