LWG Assessment of DOE’s Energy Portfolio

LWG Assessment of DOE’s Energy Portfolio

George CrabtreeArgonne National Laboratory

Basic Energy Sciences Advisory CommitteeAug 3, 2006

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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis

Motivation

“We have not done as good a job as we should in coordinating the activities of the ESE offices. We have not done as good a job as we should in performing the crosscutting analysis we need to justify our budgets to the Congress.”

David GarmanUnder Secretary for Energy, Science and EnvironmentSenate Confirmation HearingApril 6, 2005

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LWG OrganizationDavid Garman

Ray Orbach

EERE, FE, NE, OE, Science (Pat Dehmer)

Don McConnell George Crabtree

Co-Chairs~ 30 participants

from Nat’l Labs

Under Secretaries for S&T• Energy • Science

R&D Council

S&T Integration Working Group

S&T Analysts

S&T LaboratoryWorking Group

Ad-Hoc S&T Analysis Teams

John SullivanAssociate Under Secretary for

EnergyJames Decker

Deputy Director, Office of ScienceCo-Chairs

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LWG Participants

*Don McConnell (Battelle/PNNL)*George Crabtree (ANL)Mark Peters (ANL)J. Murray Gibson (ANL)John (Patrick) Looney (BNL) Doon Gibbs (BNL) Ralph Bennett (INL) J.W. (Bill) Rogers (INL) Mark Levine (LBNL) Heinz Frei (LBNL) Jane C. S. Long (LLNL) Julio Friedmann (LLNL)

*Co-Chairs

Charryl L Berger (LANL) Mary Neu (LANL) James Ekmann (NETL) Joe Strakey (NETL) Bobi Garrett (NREL)Ray Stults (NREL) Gordon Michaels (ORNL) James Roberto (ORNL) Mike Davis (PNNL) Doug Ray (PNNL) Margie Tatro (SNL) Terry Michalske (SNL)Paul Deason – SRNL

Part I: Context

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Program Scope

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Charge to Laboratory Working Group (LWG)

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Multi-year Process

FY05 (for FY07 programs) applied energy programs, qualitative impact

FY06: (for FY08 programs) + quantitative impact, relation to science, risk

FY07 (for FY09 cycle) + model analysis

FY08 (for FY10 cycle)

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The Context: Advancing Four, Broad National Energy Policy Goals

1. Diversify our energy mix and reduce dependence on foreign petroleum, thereby reducing vulnerability to disruption and increasing the flexibility of the marketto meet U.S. needs

2. Reduce greenhouse gas emissionsand other environmental impacts(water use, land use, criteria pollutants) from our energy production and use

3. Create a more flexible, more reliableand higher capacity U.S. energy infrastructure, thereby improving energy services throughout the economy, enabling use of diverse sources, and improving robustness against disruption

4. Improve the energy productivity(or energy efficiency) of the U.S. economy

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Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio1. The highest leverage approach to reducing petroleum

imports lies in transportation fuel switching and efficiency improvements

• DOE’s portfolio includes technology options that offer routes to near to mid term material impact (clean Diesel, hybrids, ethanol)

• Attractive longer-term options may be feasible with significant, but likely achievable, scientific advances (cellulosic ethanol, fuel cells, energy storage)

2. Material reductions in carbon emissions depend on progress in zero net emission electric generation options, and fuel switching / efficiency improvements throughout the economy

• DOE’s applied R&D portfolio can materially improve available technology options in the near to mid term (building technology, hybrid electric drives, biofuels, advance nuclear, zero emissions fossil)

• Emerging scientific advances offer credible promise of transforming / breakthrough technologies in the longer term (Utility scale solar, bio-energy feedstocks, bio-mimetic energy conversion)

“From the LWG Report”

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Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio3. Several areas of science offer great promise for

advances that could transform energy technology • Design and synthesis of materials exploiting

nanoscale understanding • Predictive modeling of complex systems • Scattering facilities for in-situ molecular

characterization 4. Two areas of science may merit consideration for

increased attention within the portfolio• Systems and synthetic biology• Catalysis / separations of chemical transformations


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Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio5. There are two significant “gaps” in the portfolio that

may retard progress towards national goals: • CO2 sequestration science & technology • Next-generation electric grid technologies

6. Refining R&D portfolio management practices could accelerate progress and create a “pipeline” of innovations targeted on national priorities

• Focus on defining critical outcomes to impact national goals• Strengthen horizontal / crosscutting integration• Align research strategies across the spectrum of technology

maturity from discovery to technology deployment• Consider “use-inspired” science initiatives to drive

breakthrough discoveries into applications


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Reductions in petroleum imports pivot on transportation fuel switching and vehicle energy efficiency improvements

Transportation

Fuel switching

• Ethanol from sugar • Cellulosic ethanol• Bio-diesel

• Oil Shales • Coal Liquifaction • Enhanced oil recovery • Heavy crude processing

• High Efficiency Diesels • Hybridization• Plug-in hybrids• Lightweight structures / materials • Electrification of auxiliaries • Efficient conversion systems

• Hybridization • Electrical energy storage• Auxiliary power options

Biofuels

Efficiency

Alternative Liquids

Electric Substitution

Vehicle Systems

Propulsion Options


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Advances in the electrical system play a major role in achieving national goals for reducing environmental impacts from energy and increasing energy reliability

Electricity System

Fuel switch

• ALWR • Closed fuel cycle • International reactor • High temperature reactor • LWR

• Future Gen • Sequestration • Advanced gasification • Zero-emission combustion

• Energy storage • High temperature superconductivity• Power electronics • Fault current limiters

• DG interconnection • MicroGrids • Sensors & real-time controls

• Zero-energy buildings • Solid-state lighting• Efficient integrated system• Recycle & gasification by-product • Efficient processing • Novel manufacturing systems • Efficient conversion systems

• Wind – low speed & off-shore • Photovoltaic• Concentrating solar • Storage • Bio power

• Grid monitoring • Computational modeling • Real time visualization

Nuclear

Reliable & secure delivery

Efficiency

Zero emission fossil

Renewable

Advanced T&Dcomponents

Responsive loads & real-time controls

Visualization & modeling

Industrial

Buildings


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Mission impact requires translation from discovery to innovation to the market

• DOE R&D faces two broadly recognized gaps:– Translation of new concepts arising out of basic research to

conceptual stage but targeted R&D– Translation of near-mature technologies from working prototypes

to commercial deployment

• Both of these are “bi-directional” issues– Basic science creates entirely new technology possibilities– Technology efforts identify key issues requiring improved

scientific understanding or new approaches– Improving technology performance suggests new deployment

opportunities– Market feedback helps set technology performance requirements


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Technology Maturation and DeploymentApplied ResearchDiscovery

ResearchUse-inspired

Basic Research Co-development Scale-up research At-scale

Demonstration Cost reduction Prototyping Manufacturing R&D Deployment support

Basic research for fundamental new understanding, the science grand challenges

Development of new tools, techniques, and facilities, including those for advanced modeling and computation

Basic researchfor new understanding specifically to overcome short-term showstoppers in the DOE technology programs

Research with the goal of meeting technical targets, with emphasison the development, performance, cost reduction, and durability of materials and components oron efficient processes

Proof of technology concept

Office of Science Applied Energy Programs

Goal: new knowledge / understanding Mandate: open-ended Focus: phenomena Metric: knowledge generation

Goal: practical targets Mandate: restricted to target Focus: performance Metric: milestone achievement

The LWG viewed energy S&T as a continuum with critical roles for DOE’s Science and Applied Energy portfolios


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Issues for Next Cycle: Technology

•Interaction of energy sources: “fuel switching”– Coal-gas-nuclear-renewable for electricity– Petroleum-biofuel for transportation– Alternative transportation energy options

•Interaction of energy chains– Electricity-petroleum-natural gas-biofuel-hydrogen

•Quantitative analysis of energy system– Market inertia, ripple effect across sources and

chains

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Issues for Next Cycle: Science• Greater analysis of science for energy solutions

– Achieve revolutionary breakthroughs, not evolutionary increments: factor of 10, not 10%

– Look beyond existing technology-centric directions• New approaches for managing the basic-applied

interface– Establish greater synergy– Maintain separate identities

• Emphasize discovery science distinct from use-inspired basic research– Advance the frontier - small, fast, complex, . . .– New knowledge unexpected new uses– What are the grand challenges of discovery science?

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Basic Science VisionIncremental advances in the state of the art of existing energy technologies will not meet the nation's future energy and environmental security challenges. Revolutionary innovations are needed, both in the energy technologies themselves and in our understanding of the fundamental science that enables their operation. Vibrant fundamental science programs generate revolutionary innovations in two ways: (i) by discovery-driven advances in the frontier of knowledge, enabling new paradigms and unexpected opportunities for disruptive energy technologies, and (ii) by use-inspired research targeting specific areas where incomplete understanding blocks technological progress. DOE should maintain strong programs in both areas that sustain US leadership in science.Basic-applied interactions are a fertile source of innovation. DOE should develop new ways to stimulate translational research and creative connections across the basic-applied interface.

The role of science

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Basic Science Frontiers High Performance MaterialsScience at the nanoscale, especially low-dimensional systemsDynamics of physical, chemical and biological phenomenaEmergent behavior in complex systems, from high Tc superconductors to

pattern formation in chemical solutions to self-assembly and self-repairCatalysis and control of chemical transformationMolecular to systems level understanding of living systemsBiomimetics and photobiological energy conversionMolecular scale understanding of interfacial science, separations, and

permeability in physical systems and membranesNew Tools for: In situ molecular characterization Theory/Computation/Numerical Applications

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Back up slides

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Industrial Technologies

Our analyses focused on “innovation strands” augmented by cross-cutting “system” assessments

Future Liquid Fuels Systems Assessment

Cross-cutting / Enabling Science and Technology Opportunities & Challenges

Future Electricity Systems Assessment

Future Hydrogen & Gaseous Fuels Systems Assessment

Distribution Use

Advanced Building Systems

Fuel Gridof the Future

Electric Gridof the Future

Hydrogen & GasInfrastructure

Vehicle Technologies

Supply

Fusion Energy

Advanced Nuclear

Zero Emission FossilElectric Generation

Alternative Liquid Fuels

Bioenergy/Chemicals

Renewable Energy


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Goal 1: Energy Supply DiversityTransportation efficiency & fuel switching offer the most significant opportunities to reduce oil imports

02468

101214161820

Alternative Liquids Biofuels VehicleTechnologies

Qua

drill

ion

Btus

02468

101214161820

Alternative Liquids -Feedstocks

Industrial End-Use

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

s

2025 Petroleum Demand51 Quads Additional opportunities exist to

offset industrial demand

Transportation37 quads

73%

Other3 quads

6%

Industrial11 quads

21% Three options offer the most significant opportunities to offset transportation fuel demands on

imported petroleum

Maximum Market Potential

Maximum Market Potential

*

* Alternative liquids outlook is based on current industry estimates

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Alternative Liquids *

Bioethanol *

Emerging fuel options require assessment on a

Life Cycle Basis

* Vectors are directionally correct Magnitude

estimated pending life cycle emission analysis

Goal 2: Significant reductions in CO2 emissions require a broad suite of options

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Advanced Nuclear Near ZeroEmission Fossil

Renewables Buildings Industry Transportation

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CO2 from Electricity Offsets CO2 from direct fuel or feedstock use

Projected 2025 Carbon Emissions

In million metric tons (mmt)

Point of Use Basis

2152 mmt carbon

Non Trans Fuel & Feedstocks 556 mmtElectricity

889 mmt Transportation, 706 mmt

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Options for addressing CO2 also offer benefits in reducing the demand for natural gas imports

0.0

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Buildings Industry Adv Nuclear ZEF RE

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Natural Gas Demand in 202525.8 Quads

Buildings9.4 quads

37%

Electric Utilities5.4 quads, 21%

Industry10.2 quads

39%

Other 0.8 quads, 3%

Alternative electric generation options offers offsets to increasing natural gas imports

Reducing commercial & industrial use of natural gas links to heating efficiency

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Buildings Industry

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Basic-Applied ResearchWhat are the goals?

Translation of applications from basic to applied50% efficient quantum dot solar cellCost competitive superconducting wire

Develop disruptive approach to grand energy challengesMake an electronic switch information revolutionStore 24 GWh of electrical energy for 24 hours Personal transportation at 1/10th cost of cars

What are the attributes?Integrated basic-applied PI teamsIntegrated basic-applied management teamsTap the best scientists/engineers: innovative thinkers, receptive to new ideas and peopleObjectives are innovation driven, not time-scale drivenStable program: 10+ year lifeInternational network of workshops and visitors to create community and stimulate fresh perspectivePeriodic review by top scientists/engineers outside DOE Examine other innovation machines for organizational inspiration: DARPA, Bell Labs, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Xerox Parc

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LWG Assessment of DOE’s Energy Portfolio

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