M & EEstimating Numbers of Vulnerable Children

IATT, April 2007

Beverly Nyberg, Ed.D.

The NEED for Estimating the Number of Vulnerable Children

• No reliable estimates for the number of vulnerable children • Estimates for the numbers of orphans are available

• from any cause

• due to HIV/AIDS

• Countries and service providers need to know • In order to plan for appropriate services and resources

• Give accurate information: National Tracking Indicator #38 (UNGASS) - “total number of OVC” in a country is the denominator for the percent of OVC served.

Possible Models for Estimations

Depend on definitions

• All vulnerable children regardless of cause?• What is the “cut off line” for vulnerability?

• Is there a global definition or a country specific?

• Child vulnerable due to specific causes• HIV/AIDS – how to define?

• High prevalence vs. low prevalence countries

• Poverty

• Others: Armed conflict, malnutrition/famine, etc.

Possible Models for Estimations

Depends on information available

• Population-based surveys • DHS/AIS etc

• Non-household based children

• Lag-time for orphan calculations

• Depends on level of analysis• National or sub-national estimates

Discussion of Defining Vulnerability

Katie Schenk, Population Council

Research in Zambia

Defining the Estimated Population

All vulnerable children regardless of cause?• What is the “cut off line” for vulnerability?

• Is there a global definition or a country specific?

Child vulnerable due to specific causes• HIV/AIDS – how to define?

• High prevalence vs. low prevalence countries

• Poverty

• Others: Armed conflict, malnutrition/famine, etc.

Determining Level of Estimation

National

• Easier to estimate

• No confidentiality at risk

Sub-national

• More beneficial for targeted planning

Possible Models for Estimations – Prior Conclusions

All vulnerable children regardless of cause

• A global definition Children vulnerable due to specific causes

• HIV/AIDS – how to define?• All children potentially vulnerable due to HIV/AIDS

• Children whose vulnerability has actually increased due to AIDS, e.g. orphaned or parents sick in last 3 months.

• Poverty – below poverty line Use information available

• Restricted to definition of the survey instrument

• Prefer lowest level possible, e.g. district• Necessary for planning purposes

THANKS….