SPECIAL REPORTBusiness & Media Institute

ADVANCING THE CULTURE OF FREE ENTERPRISE IN AMERICA

hanks to the release of AlGore’s latest effort onglobal warming – thistime in book and movie

form – climate change is the hottopic in press rooms around theglobe. It isn’t the first time.

The media have warned aboutimpending climate doom four dif-ferent times in the last 100 years.Only they can’t decide if mankindwill die from warming or cooling.

As the noise from the contro-versy has increased, it hasdrowned out any debate.Journalists have taken advocacypositions, often ignoring climatechange skeptics entirely. One CBSreporter even compared skepticsof manmade global warming toHolocaust deniers.

The Society of EnvironmentalJournalists Spring 2006 SEJournalincluded a now-common media

position, arguing against balance.But that sense of certainty ignoresthe industry’s history of hypingclimate change – from cooling towarming, back to cooling andwarming once again.

The Media Research Center’sBusiness & Media Institute (for-merly the Free Market Project)conducted an extensive analysis ofprint media’s climate change cov-erage back to the late 1800s.

It found that many publica-tions now claiming the world is

on the brink of a global warmingdisaster said the same about animpending ice age – just 30 yearsago. Several major ones, includingThe New York Times, Time mag-azine and Newsweek, havereported on three or even fourdifferent climate shifts since 1895.

In addition, BMI found:

• “Global Cooling” Was Justas Realistic: Several publicationswarned in the 1970s that globalcooling posed a major threat tothe food supply. Now, remark-ably, global warming is also con-sidered a threat to the very samefood supply.

• Glaciers Are Growing orShrinking: The media continue topoint to glaciers as a sign of cli-mate change, but they have usedthem as examples of both coolingand warming.

B u s i n e s s & M e d i a I n s t i t u t e . 3 2 5 S O U T H P A T R I C K S T . A L E X A N D R I A , V A 2 2 3 1 4 . ( 7 0 3 ) 6 8 3 - 9 7 3 3 . w w w . B u s i n e s s a n d M e d i a . o r g

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

MAY 17, 2006

FIRE AND ICEJournalists have warned of climate change for 100 years,but can’t decide weather we face an ice age or warming

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

T “Scientists PonderWhy World’s Climateis Changing; A MajorCooling WidelyConsidered to BeInevitable”

--The New York TimesMay 21, 1975

• Global Warming HistoryIgnored: The media treat globalwarming like it’s a new idea. Infact, British amateur meteorolo-gist G. S. Callendar argued thatmankind was responsible forheating up the planet with carbondioxide emissions – in 1938. Thatwas decades before scientists andjournalists alerted the publicabout the threat of a new ice age.

• New York Times the Worst:Longtime readers of the Timescould easily recall the paperclaiming “A Major CoolingWidely Considered to BeInevitable,” along with its strong

support of current global warm-ing predictions. Older readersmight well recall two otherclaims of a climate shift back tothe 1800s – one an ice age andthe other warming again.

The Times has warned of fourseparate climate changes since1895.

Time’s coverage of global warm-ing has turned into outrightadvocacy. The April 3, 2006,issue of the magazine said: “ByAny Measure, Earth Is At ... TheTipping Point. The climate iscrashing, and global warming isto blame.”

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

t was five years before theturn of the century andmajor media were warningof disastrous climate

change. Page six of The New YorkTimes was headlined with theserious concerns of “geologists.”Only the president at the time

wasn’t Bill Clinton; it was GroverCleveland. And the Times wasn’twarning about global warming –it was telling readers the loomingdangers of a new ice age.

The year was 1895, and it wasjust one of four different time

periods in the last 100 years whenmajor print media predicted animpending climate crisis. Eachprediction carried its own ele-ments of doom, saying Canadacould be “wiped out” or lowercrop yields would mean “billionswill die.”

MAY 17, 2006

FIRE AND ICEJournalists have warned of climate change for 100 years,but can’t decide weather we face an ice age or warming

BY R. WARREN ANDERSONRESEARCH ANALYST

DAN GAINORTHE BOONE PICKENS FREE MARKET FELLOW

SPECIAL REPORTBusiness & Media Institute

ADVANCING THE CULTURE OF FREE ENTERPRISE IN AMERICA

B u s i n e s s & M e d i a I n s t i t u t e . 3 2 5 S O U T H P A T R I C K S T . A L E X A N D R I A , V A 2 2 3 1 4 . ( 7 0 3 ) 6 8 3 - 9 7 3 3 . w w w . B u s i n e s s a n d M e d i a . o r g

“America in LongestWarm Spell Since 1776;Temperature LineRecords a 25-Year Rise”

“Scientists Ponder WhyWorld’s Climate isChanging; A MajorCooling WidelyConsidered to BeInevitable”

“Past Hot Times HoldFew Reasons to RelaxAbout New Warming”

“MacMillan Reports Signsof New Ice Age”

A New York Times-line

Sept. 18, 1924March 27, 1933

May 21, 1975

Dec. 27, 2005

I

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 3

Just as the weather haschanged over time, so has thereporting – blowing hot or coldwith short-term changes in tem-perature.

Following the ice age threatsfrom the late 1800s, fears of animminent and icy catastrophewere compounded in the 1920s byArctic explorer Donald MacMillanand an obsession with the news ofhis polar expedition. As the Timesput it on Feb. 24, 1895,“Geologists Think the World MayBe Frozen Up Again.”

Those concerns lasted well intothe late 1920s. But when theearth’s surface warmed less thanhalf a degree, newspapers andmagazines responded with storiesabout the new threat. Once againthe Times was out in front, cau-tioning “the earth is steadilygrowing warmer.”

After a while, that secondphase of climate cautions began tofade. By 1954, Fortune magazinewas warming to another coolingtrend and ran an article titled“Climate – the Heat May Be Off.”As the United States and the oldSoviet Union faced off, the mediajoined them with reports of amore dangerous Cold War of Manvs. Nature.

The New York Times ranwarming stories into the late1950s, but it too came around tothe new fears. Just three decadesago, in 1975, the paper reported:“A Major Cooling WidelyConsidered to Be Inevitable.”

That trend, too, cooled off andwas replaced by the current era ofreporting on the dangers of globalwarming. Just six years later, onAug. 22, 1981, the Times quotedseven government atmosphericscientists who predicted globalwarming of an “almost unprece-dented magnitude.”

In all, the print news mediahave warned of four separate cli-mate changes in slightly morethan 100 years – global cooling,warming, cooling again, and, per-haps not so finally, warming.Some current warming storiescombine the concepts and claimthe next ice age will be triggeredby rising temperatures – thetheme of the 2004 movie “TheDay After Tomorrow.”

Recent global warming reportshave continued that trend, mor-phing into a hybrid of both theo-ries. News media that once toutedthe threat of “global warming”

have moved on to the more flexi-ble term “climate change.” As theTimes described it, climate changecan mean any major shift, makingthe earth cooler or warmer. In aMarch 30, 2006, piece onExxonMobil’s approach to theenvironment, a reporter arguedthe firm’s chairman “has gone outof his way to soften Exxon’s pub-lic stance on climate change.”

The effect of the idea of “cli-mate change” means that anymajor climate event can beblamed on global warming, sup-posedly driven by mankind.

Spring 2006 has been swampedwith climate change hype in everytype of media – books, newspa-pers, magazines, online, TV andeven movies.

One-time presidential candi-date Al Gore, a patron saint of theenvironmental movement, isreleasing “An InconvenientTruth” in book and movie form,warning, “Our ability to live iswhat is at stake.”

Despite all the historical shift-ing from one position to another,many in the media no longer wel-come opposing views on the cli-mate. CBS reporter Scott Pelleywent so far as to compare climatechange skeptics with Holocaustdeniers.

“If I do an interview with[Holocaust survivor] Elie Wiesel,”Pelley asked, “am I required as ajournalist to find a Holocaustdenier?” he said in an interviewon March 23 with CBS News’s

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 4

The future looked cold and ominousin this Science News depiction fromMarch 1, 1975.

PublicEye blog.He added that the whole idea

of impartial journalism just didn’twork for climate stories. “Therebecomes a point in journalismwhere striving for balancebecomes irresponsible,” he said.

Pelley’s comments ignored anessential point: that 30 years ago,the media were certain about theprospect of a new ice age. Andthat is only the most recent exam-ple of how much journalists havechanged their minds on thisessential debate.

Some in the media wouldprobably argue that they merelyreport what scientists tell them,but that would be only half true.

Journalists decide not onlywhat they cover; they also decidewhether to include opposingviewpoints. That’s a balance lack-ing in the current “debate.”

This isn’t a question of science.It’s a question of whetherAmericans can trust what themedia tell them about science.

Global Cooling: 1954-1976

The ice age is coming, the sun’szooming in

Engines stop running, the wheatis growing thin

A nuclear era, but I have no fear’Cause London is drowning, and I

live by the river-- The Clash

“London Calling,”

released in 1979

The first Earth Day was cele-brated on April 22, 1970, amidsthysteria about the dangers of anew ice age. The media had beenspreading warnings of a coolingperiod since the 1950s, but thosealarms grew louder in the 1970s.

Three months before, onJanuary 11, The Washington Posttold readers to “get a good gripon your long johns, cold weatherhaters – the worst may be yet tocome,” in an article titled “ColderWinters Held Dawn of New IceAge.” The article quoted climatol-ogist Reid Bryson, who said“there’s no relief in sight” aboutthe cooling trend.

Journalists took the threat ofanother ice age seriously. Fortunemagazine actually won a “ScienceWriting Award” from theAmerican Institute of Physics forits own analysis of the danger.“As for the present cooling trenda number of leading climatolo-gists have concluded that it isvery bad news indeed,” Fortuneannounced in February 1974.

Page 5

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

“Gaffers who claim thatwinters were harder whenthey were boys are quiteright... weather men haveno doubt that the world atleast for the time being isgrowing warmer.”

“ClimatologicalCassandras are becom-ing increasingly appre-hensive, for the weatheraberrations they arestudying may be the harbinger of another ice age.”

“[S]cientists no longerdoubt that global warm-ing is happening, andalmost nobody questionsthe fact that humans are at least partly responsible. “

“The discoveries ofchanges in the sun’s heatand the southwardadvance of glaciers inrecent years have givenrise to conjectures of thepossible advent of a newice age.”

A Time Magazine Time-line

Sept. 10, 1923Jan. 2, 1939

June 24, 1974 April 9, 2001

Time magazine’s June 24, 1974, storyshowed how Arctic snow and ice hadgrown from 1968 to 1974.

Just as the media have alwaysrelied on glaciers in climatechange stories, they now rely oncertain talking heads to maketheir points about global warm-ing.

Former Vice President Al Gorehas become a major spokesmanfor the environmental movementand an advocate for larger andmore intrusive bureaucracy tofend off climate change.

Currently, Gore is promotinghis second global warming book,“An Inconvenient Truth,” whichalso has a companion film. Thetrailer from the new movieclaims ominously: “Our ability to

live is what is at stake.”

His latest effort has alreadybegun to generate new mediaattention about Gore’s globalwarming efforts. Incredibly,there have been more than 1,000print stories containing Al Goreand global warming since EarthDay 2004 – and that was beforehis new book.

Gore first published “Earth inthe Balance” in 1992, a book on“ecology and the human spirit”that advocated for worldwidetreaties to control the environ-mental efforts of every nation.The book contained a 65-pagechapter about “A Global

Marshall Plan.” This environ-mental plan would help us“grapple with the enormouschallenge we now face.”

He said he rejected the notionof a world government andinstead advocated internationalagreements establishing “globalconstraints on acceptable behav-ior.”

These “voluntarily” entered,“fair” agreements would containincentives and non-compliancepenalties, but could impact richnations like the United Statesmore than others.

The United Nations shouldconsider establishing a“Stewardship Council” to moni-tor the green treaties and handlethe global environment, he said.Yearly environmental meetingsfor bureaucrats would becomenecessary.

Gore lectures regularly onhuman-caused global warming.A typical example was his Jan.15, 2004, New York appearance.

He spoke at the BeaconTheater and thanked leaders ofMoveOn.org, teaching that the“wealthy right-wing ideologueshave joined with the most cyni-cal and irresponsible companiesin the oil, coal and mining indus-tries to contribute large sums ofmoney to finance pseudo-scien-tific front groups that specializein sowing confusion in the pub-lic’s mind about global warm-ing.”

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 6

Al Gore: Still Hot for Global Warming

The trailer from Al Gore’s new movie claims ominously: ‘Our ability to live iswhat is at stake.’ In this CNN clip, Jack Cafferty discusses the film.

“It is the root cause of a lot ofthat unpleasant weather aroundthe world and they warn that itcarries the potential for humandisasters of unprecedented mag-nitude,” the article continued.

That article also emphasizedBryson’s extreme doomsday pre-dictions. “There is very importantclimatic change going on rightnow, and it’s not merely some-thing of academic interest.”

Bryson warned, “It is some-thing that, if it continues, willaffect the whole human occupa-tion of the earth – like a billionpeople starving. The effects arealready showing up in a ratherdrastic way.” However, the worldpopulation increased by 2.5 bil-lion since that warning.

Fortune had been emphasizingthe cooling trend for 20 years. In1954, it picked up on the idea of afrozen earth and ran an articletitled “Climate – the Heat May BeOff.”

The story debunked the notionthat “despite all you may haveread, heard, or imagined, it’s beengrowing cooler – not warmer –since the Thirties.”

The claims of global catastro-phe were remarkably similar towhat the media deliver nowabout global warming.

“The cooling has already killedhundreds of thousands of peoplein poor nations,” wrote LowellPonte in his 1976 book “The

Cooling.”

If the proper measures weren’ttaken, he cautioned, then the cool-ing would lead to “world famine,world chaos, and probably worldwar, and this could all come bythe year 2000.”

There were more warnings.The Nov. 15, 1969, “ScienceNews” quoted meteorologist Dr.J. Murray Mitchell Jr. about globalcooling worries. “How long thecurrent cooling trend continues isone of the most important prob-lems of our civilization,” he said.

If the cooling continued for 200to 300 years, the earth could beplunged into an ice age, Mitchellcontinued.

Six years later, the periodicalreported “the cooling since 1940has been large enough and consis-tent enough that it will not soonbe reversed.”

A city in a snow globe illustrat-ed that March 1, 1975, article,while the cover showed an ice ageobliterating an unfortunate city.

In 1975, cooling went from“one of the most important prob-lems” to a first-place tie for“death and misery.” “The threatof a new ice age must now standalongside nuclear war as a likelysource of wholesale death andmisery for mankind,” said NigelCalder, a former editor of “NewScientist.”

He claimed it was not his dis-position to be a “doomsday man.”His analysis came from “the facts[that] have emerged” about pastice ages, according to theJuly/August InternationalWildlife Magazine.

The idea of a worldwide deepfreeze snowballed.

Naturally, science fictionauthors embraced the topic.Writer John Christopher delivereda book on the coming ice age in1962 called “The World inWinter.”

In Christopher’s novel,England and other “rich countriesof the north” broke down under

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 7

The New York Times hadbeen cautioning its readers aboutglobal warming during the 1950s,but it too came around to thenew threat by Jan. 19, 1975.

Referring to the 1970s asbeing part of a 10,000-year peri-od of warmth in between iceages, the paper wrote, “Thereseems to be little doubt that the

present period of unusualwarmth will eventually give wayto a time of colder climate.”

By Dec. 30, 2005, the Timeshad once again changed gearsand reported, “Climatologistssaid the ice cores left no doubtthat the burning of fossil fuels isaltering the atmosphere in a sub-stantial and unprecedented way.”

The Times Warms to Cooling

the icy onslaught. “The machines stopped, the

land was dead and the peoplewent south,” he explained.

James Follett took a slightlydifferent tack. His book “Ice” wasabout “a rogue Antarctic iceberg”that “becomes a major worldmenace.” Follett in his book con-ceived “the teeth chattering possi-bility of how Nature can punishthose who foolishly believe theyhave mastered her.”

Global Warming:1929-1969

Today’s global warming advo-cates probably don’t even realizetheir claims aren’t original. Beforethe cooling worries of the ’70s,America went through globalwarming fever for severaldecades around World War II.

The nation entered the “longestwarm spell since 1776,” accordingto a March 27, 1933, New YorkTimes headline. Shifting climategears from ice to heat, theAssociated Press article began“That next ice age, if one is com-ing … is still a long way off.”

One year earlier, the paperreported that “the earth is steadilygrowing warmer” in its May 15edition. The Washington Post feltthe heat as well and titled an arti-cle simply “Hot weather” onAugust 2, 1930.

That article, reminiscent of astand-up comedy routine, told

readers that the heat was so bad,people were going to be saying,“Ah, do you remember that torridsummer of 1930. It was so hot that* * *.”

The Los Angeles Times beatboth papers to the heat with theheadline: “Is another ice age com-ing?” on March 11, 1929. Itsanswer to that question: “Mostgeologists think the world isgrowing warmer, and that it willcontinue to get warmer.”

Meteorologist J. B. Kincer ofthe federal weather bureau pub-lished a scholarly article on thewarming world in the September1933 “Monthly Weather Review.”

The article began discussingthe “wide-spread and persistenttendency toward warmer weath-er” and asked “Is our climatechanging?” Kincer proceeded todocument the warming trend.Out of 21 winters examined from1912-33 in Washington, D.C., 18were warmer than normal and allof the past 13 were mild.

New Haven, Conn., experi-enced warmer temperatures, withevidence from records that went“back to near the close of theRevolutionary War,” claimed theanalysis. Using records from vari-ous other cities, Kincer showedthat the world was warming.

British amateur meteorologistG. S. Callendar made a bold claimfive years later that many wouldrecognize now. He argued thatman was responsible for heatingup the planet with carbon dioxide

emissions – in 1938.

It wasn’t a common notion atthe time, but he published an arti-cle in the Quarterly Journal of theRoyal Meteorological Society onthe subject. “In the followingpaper I hope to show that suchinfluence is not only possible, butis actually occurring at the pres-ent time,” Callendar wrote. Hewent on the lecture circuitdescribing carbon-dioxide-induced global warming.

But Callendar didn’t concludehis article with an apocalypticforecast, as happens in today’sglobal warming stories. Instead hesaid the change “is likely to provebeneficial to mankind in severalways, besides the provision ofheat and power.” Furthermore, itwould allow for greater agricul-ture production and hold off thereturn of glaciers “indefinitely.”

On November 6 the followingyear, The Chicago Daily Tribuneran an article titled “Experts puz-zle over 20 year mercury rise.” Itbegan, “Chicago is in the frontrank of thousands of cities thuout[sic] the world which have beenaffected by a mysterious trendtoward warmer climate in the lasttwo decades.”

The rising mercury trend con-tinued into the ’50s. The NewYork Times reported that “wehave learned that the world hasbeen getting warmer in the lasthalf century” on Aug. 10, 1952.According to the Times, the evi-dence was the introduction of codin the Eskimo’s diet – a fish they

Page 8

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

had not encountered before 1920or so. The following year, thepaper reported that studies con-firmed summers and winterswere getting warmer.

This warming gave theEskimos more to handle than cod.“Arctic Findings in ParticularSupport Theory of Rising GlobalTemperatures,” announced theTimes during the middle of win-ter, on Feb. 15, 1959. Glacierswere melting in Alaska and the“ice in the Arctic ocean is abouthalf as thick as it was in the latenineteenth century.”

A decade later, the Times reaf-firmed its position that “the Arcticpack ice is thinning and that theocean at the North Pole maybecome an open sea within adecade or two,” according topolar explorer Col. Bernt Bachenin the Feb. 20, 1969, piece.

One of the most surprisingaspects of the global warmingclaims of the 20th Century is thatthey followed close behind similartheories of another major climatechange – that one an ice age.

Global Cooling: 1895-1932

The world knew all about coldweather in the 1800s. Americaand Europe had escaped a 500-year period of cooling, called theLittle Ice Age, around 1850. Sowhen the Times warned of newcooling in 1895, it was a seriousprediction.

On Feb. 24, 1895, the Times

announced “Geologists Think theWorld May Be Frozen Up Again.”The article debated “whetherrecent and long-continued obser-vations do not point to the adventof a second glacial period.” Thoseconcerns were brought on byincreases in northern glaciers andin the severity of Scandinavia’sclimate.

Fear spread through the printmedia over the next threedecades. A few months after thesinking of the Titanic, on Oct. 7,1912, page one of the Timesreported, “Prof. Schmidt WarnsUs of an Encroaching Ice Age.”

Scientists knew of four ice agesin the past, leading ProfessorNathaniel Schmidt of CornellUniversity to conclude that oneday we will need scientific knowl-edge “to combat the perils” of thenext one.

The same day the Los AngelesTimes ran an article aboutSchmidt as well, entitled “Fifth iceage is on the way.” It was subti-tled “Human race will have tofight for its existence againstcold.”

That end-of-the-world tonewasn’t unusual. “Scientist saysArctic ice will wipe out Canada,”declared a front-page ChicagoTribune headline on Aug. 9, 1923.“Professor Gregory” of YaleUniversity stated that “anotherworld ice-epoch is due.” He wasthe American representative tothe Pan-Pacific Science Congressand warned that North America

would disappear as far south asthe Great Lakes, and huge partsof Asia and Europe would be“wiped out.”

Gregory’s predictions went onand on. Switzerland would be“entirely obliterated,” and partsof South America would be“overrun.” The good news –“Australia has nothing to fear.”The Washington Post picked upon the story the following day,announcing “Ice Age ComingHere.”

Talk of the ice age threat evenreached France. In a New YorkTimes article from Sept. 20, 1922,a penguin found in France wasviewed as an “ice-age harbinger.”

Even though the penguinprobably escaped from theAntarctic explorer Sir ErnestShackleton’s ship, it “caused con-siderable consternation in thecountry.”

Some of the sound of theRoaring ’20s was the noise of acoming ice age – prominentlycovered by The New York Times.Capt. Donald MacMillan beganhis Arctic expeditions in 1908with Robert Peary. He was goingto Greenland to test the “Menaceof a new ice age,” as the Timesreported on June 10, 1923.

The menace was coming from“indications in Arctic that havecaused some apprehension.” Twoweeks later the Times reportedthat MacMillan would get data tohelp determine “whether there is

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 9

any foundation for the theorywhich has been advanced in somequarters that another ice age isimpending.”

On July 4, 1923, the paperannounced that the “ExplorerHopes to Determine Whether new‘Ice Age’ is Coming.”

The Atlanta Constitution alsohad commented on the impend-ing ice age on July 21, 1923.MacMillan found the “biggest gla-cier” and reported on the greatincrease of glaciers in the Arcticas compared to earlier measures.

Even allowing for “the provi-sional nature of the earlier sur-veys,” glacial activity had greatlyaugmented, “according to themen of science.” Not only was“the world of science” followingMacMillan, so too were the “radiofans.”

The Christian Science Monitorreported on the potential ice ageas well, on July 3, 1923. “CaptainMacMillan left Wicasset, Me., twoweeks ago for Sydney, the jump-ing-off point for the north seas,announcing that one of the pur-

poses of his cruise was to deter-mine whether there is beginninganother ‘ice age,’ as the advanceof glaciers in the last 70 yearswould seem to indicate.”

Then on Sept. 18, 1924, TheNew York Times declared thethreat was real, saying“MacMillan Reports Signs of NewIce Age.”

Concerns about global coolingcontinued. Swedish scientistRutger Sernander also forecasteda new ice age. He headed aSwedish committee of scientistsstudying “climatic development”in the Scandinavian country.

According to the LA Times onApril 6, 1924, he claimed therewas “scientific ground for believ-ing” that the conditions “when allwinds will bring snow, the suncannot prevail against the clouds,and three winters will come inone, with no summer between,”had already begun.

That ice age talk cooled in theearly 1930s. But The Atlantic in1932 puffed the last blast of Arctic

air in the article “This Cold, ColdWorld.” Author W. J. Humphriescompared the state of the earth tothe state of the world before otherice ages. He wrote “If these thingsbe true, it is evident, thereforethat we must be just teetering onan ice age.”

Concluding the article he notedthe uncertainty of such things, butclosed with “we do know that theclimatic gait of this our world isinsecure and unsteady, teetering,indeed, on an ice age, howevernear or distant the inevitable fall.”

Cooling and WarmingBoth Threats to Food

Just like today, the news mediawere certain about the threat thatan ice age posed.

In the 1970s, as the worldcooled down, the fear was thatmankind couldn’t grow enoughfood with a longer winter.“Climate Changes EndangerWorld’s Food Output,” declared aNew York Times headline onAug. 8, 1974, right in the heat ofsummer.

“Bad weather this summer andthe threat of more of it to comehang ominously over every esti-mate of the world food situation,”the article began.

It continued saying the direconsequences of the cooling cli-mate created a deadly risk of suf-fering and mass starvation.

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 10

In 1924, the Times was convinced that cold was a mighty threat.

Various climatologists issued astatement that “the facts of thepresent climate change are suchthat the most optimistic expertswould assign near certainty tomajor crop failure in a decade,”reported the Dec. 29, 1974, NewYork Times. If policy makers didnot account for this oncomingdoom, “mass deaths by starvationand probably in anarchy and vio-lence” would result.

Time magazine delivered itsown gloomy outlook on the“World Food Crisis” on June 24 ofthat same year and followed withthe article “Weather Change:Poorer Harvests” on November11.

According to the Novemberstory, the mean global surfacetemperature had fallen just 1degree Fahrenheit since the 1940s.Yet this small drop “trimmed aweek to ten days from the grow-ing season” in the earth’s bread-basket regions.

The prior advances of theGreen Revolution that bolsteredworld agriculture would be vul-nerable to the lower temperaturesand lead to “agricultural disas-ters.”

Newsweek was equally down-beat in its article “The CoolingWorld.” “There are ominous signsthat the earth’s weather patternshave begun to change dramatical-ly,” which would lead to drasti-cally decreased food production,it said.

“The drop in food output couldbegin quite soon, perhaps onlyten years from now,” the maga-zine told readers on April 28 thefollowing year.

This, Newsweek said, wasbased on the “central fact” that“the earth’s climate seems to becooling down.” Despite some dis-agreement on the cause andextent of cooling, meteorologistswere “almost unanimous in theview that the trend will reduceagricultural productivity for therest of the century.”

Despite Newsweek’s claim,agricultural productivity didn’tdrop for the rest of the century. Itactually increased at an “annualrate of 1.76% over the period 1948to 2002,” according to theDepartment of Agriculture.

That didn’t deter the magazinefrom warning about decliningagriculture once again 30 yearslater – this time because the earthwas getting warmer. “Livestockare dying. Crops are withering,”it said in the Aug. 8, 2005, edition.It added that “extremely dryweather of recent months hasspawned swarms of locusts” andthey were destroying crops inFrance. Was global warming toblame? “Evidence is mounting tosupport just such fears,” deter-mined the piece.

U.S. News & World Reportwas agriculturally pessimistic aswell. “Global climate change mayalter temperature and rainfall pat-terns, many scientists fear, withuncertain consequences for agri-culture.” That was just 13 yearsago, in 1993.

That wasn’t the first timewarming was blamed for influ-encing agriculture. In 1953William J. Baxter wrote the book“Today’s Revolution in Weather!”on the warming climate. His stud-ies showed “that the heat zone ismoving northward and the win-ters are getting milder with lesssnowfall.”

Baxter titled a chapter in hisbook “Make Room For Trees,Grains, Vegetables and Bugs onthe North Express!” The warmingworld led him to estimate thatwithin 10 years Canada wouldproduce more wheat than theUnited States, though he saidAmerica’s corn dominance would

This headline from the May 31, 1976,U.S. News & World Report is a reminderthat it hasn’t been very long since glob-al warming wasn’t a concern.

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 11

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122Page 12

Climate Change: Unpredictable Results

Date PublicationPrediction

(All exact quotes) OutcomeOct. 7, 1912 New York Times Prof. Schmidt Warns Us of an

Encroaching Ice AgeStill encroaching…

June 28, 1923 Los Angeles Times The possibility of another Ice Age alreadyhaving started… is admitted by men offirst rank in the scientific world, men spe-cially qualified to speak.

Must be a slow starter.

Aug. 9, 1923 Chicago Tribune Scientist says Arctic ice will wipe outCanada

Still there last time we checked.

December 1932 The Atlantic We must be just teetering on an ice agewhich some relatively mild geologic actionwould be sufficient to start going.

Still teetering.

Feb. 20, 1969 New York Timesfrom Col. BerntBachen

The Arctic pack ice is thinning and thatthe ocean at the North Pole may becomean open sea within a decade or two.

Santa still is safe.

February 1974 Fortune magazinefrom Reid Bryson

There is very important climatic changegoing on right now… It is something that,if it continues, will affect the whole humanoccupation of the earth – like a billionpeople starving.

World population increased by2.5 billion.

March 1, 1975 Science News The cooling since 1940 has been largeenough and consistent enough that it willnot soon be reversed, and we are unlikelyto quickly regain the “very extraordinaryperiod of warmth” that preceded it.

If “not soon be reversed” means“reversed by the next decade,”then yes.

March 1, 1975 Science News The temperature has already fallen backsome 0.6 degrees, and shows no sign ofreversal.

So much for climatologists read-ing the signs correctly.

July-August 1975 International Wildlife But the sense of the discoveries is thatthere is no reason why the ice age shouldnot start in earnest in our lifetimes.

There’s still time.

1992 Al Gore, “Earth inthe Balance”

About 10 million residents of Bangladeshwill lose their homes and means of suste-nance because of the rising sea level,due to global warming, in the next fewdecades.

While periodic monsoons stillcause flooding, rising seas havenot been a problem.

Feb. 2, 2006 The Daily Telegraph “Billions will die,” says Lovelock, who tellsus that he is not normally a gloomy type.Human civilisation will be reduced to a“broken rabble ruled by brutal warlords”,and the plague-ridden remainder of thespecies will flee the cracked and brokenearth to the Arctic, the last temperatespot, where a few breeding couples willsurvive.

Even Malthus must be turningover in his grave over this one.

remain. It was more than just crops that

were in trouble. Baxter also notedthat fishermen in Maine couldcatch tropical and semi-tropicalfish, which were just beginning toappear. The green crab, whichalso migrated north, was “slowlykilling” the profitable industry ofsteamer clams.

Ice, Ice BabyAnother subject was prominent

whether journalists were warningabout global warming or an iceage: glaciers. For 110 years, scien-tists eyed the mammoth moun-tains of ice to determine thenature of the temperature shift.Reporters treated the glaciers likethey were the ultimate predictorsof climate.

In 1895, geologists thought theworld was freezing up again dueto the “great masses of ice” thatwere frequently seen farthersouth than before.

The New York Times reportedthat icebergs were so bad, andthey decreased the temperature ofIceland so much, that inhabitantsfearing a famine were “emigrat-ing to North America.”

In 1902, when Teddy Rooseveltbecame the first president to ridein a car, the Los Angeles Timesdelivered a story that should befamiliar to modern readers. Thepaper’s story on “DisappearingGlaciers” in the Alps said the gla-ciers were not “running away,”but rather “deteriorating slowly,with a persistency that means

their final annihilation.” The melting led to alpine hotel

owners having trouble keepingpatrons. It was established that itwas a “scientific fact” that the gla-ciers were “surely disappearing.”That didn’t happen. Instead theygrew once more.

More than 100 years after their“final annihilation” was declared,the LA Times was once againwriting the same story. AnAssociated Press story in the Aug.21, 2005, paper showed how gla-cier stories never really change.According to the article: “A signon a sheer cliff wall nearby pointsto a mountain hut. It should havebeen at eye level but is more than60 feet above visitors’ heads.That’s how much the glacier hasshrunk since the sign went up 35years ago.”

But glacier stories didn’talways show them melting awaylike ice cubes in a warm drink.The Boston Daily Globe in 1923reported one purpose ofMacMillan’s Arctic expeditionwas to determine the beginning ofthe next ice age, “as the advanceof glaciers in the last 70 yearswould indicate.”

When that era of ice-agereports melted away, retreatingglaciers were again highlighted.In 1953’s “Today’s Revolution inWeather!” William Baxter wrotethat “the recession of glaciers overthe whole earth affords the bestproof that climate is warming,”despite the fact that the worldhad been in its cooling phase formore than a decade when he

wrote it. He gave examples of gla-ciers melting in Lapland, theAlps, Mr. Rainer and Antarctica.

Time magazine in 1951 notedpermafrost in Russia was reced-ing northward up to 100 yardsper year. In 1952, The New YorkTimes kept with the warmingtrend. It reported the globalwarming studies of climatologistDr. Hans W. Ahlmann, whose“trump card” “has been the melt-ing glaciers.” The next year theTimes said “nearly all the greatice sheets are in retreat.”

U.S. News and World Reportagreed, noted that “winters aregetting milder, summers drier.Glaciers are receding, desertsgrowing” on Jan. 8, 1954.

In the ’70s, glaciers did anabout face. Ponte in “TheCooling” warned that “The rapidadvance of some glaciers hasthreatened human settlements inAlaska, Iceland, Canada, China,and the Soviet Union.”

Time contradicted its 1951report and stated that the coolingtrend was here to stay. The June24, 1974, article was based onthose omnipresent “telltale signs”such as the “unexpected persist-ence and thickness of pack ice inthe waters around Iceland.”

Even The Christian ScienceMonitor in the same year noted“glaciers which had been retreat-ing until 1940 have begun toadvance.” The article continued,“the North Atlantic is coolingdown about as fast as an ocean

Page 13

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

can cool.” The New York Times noted

that in 1972 the “mantle of polarice increased by 12 percent” andhad not returned to “normal”size.

North Atlantic sea tempera-tures declined, and shippingroutes were “cluttered withabnormal amounts of ice.”

Furthermore, the permafrost inRussia and Canada was advanc-ing southward, according to theDecember 29 article that closedout 1974.

Decades later, the Timesseemed confused by melting ice.On Dec. 8, 2002, the paper ran anarticle titled “Arctic Ice Is Meltingat Record Level, Scientists Say.”The first sentence read “The melt-ing of Greenland glaciers andArctic Ocean sea ice this pastsummer reached levels not seenin decades.”

Was the ice melting at recordlevels, as the headline stated, or ata level seen decades ago, as thefirst line mentioned?

On Sept. 14, 2005, the Timesreported the recession of glaciers“seen from Peru to Tibet toGreenland” could accelerate andbecome abrupt.

This, in turn, could increase therise of the sea level and block theGulf Stream. Hence “a moderncounterpart of the 18,000-year-oldglobal-warming event could trig-ger a new ice age.”

Government Comesto the Rescue

Mankind managed to survivethree phases of fear about globalwarming and cooling withoutmassive bureaucracy and govern-ment intervention, but aggressivelobbying by environmentalgroups finally changed that reali-ty.

The Kyoto treaty, new emis-sions standards and foreign regu-lations are but a few examples.

Getting the governmentinvolved to control the weatherisn’t a new concept. When theearth was cooling, The New YorkTimes reported on a panel thatrecommended a multimillion-dol-lar research program to combatthe threat.

That program was to start with$18 million a year in funding andincrease to about $67 million by1980, according to the Jan. 19,1975, Times. That would be morethan $200 million in today’s dol-lars.

Weather warnings in the ’70sfrom “reputable researchers” wor-ried policy-makers so much thatscientists at a National Academyof Sciences meeting “proposed theevacuation of some six millionpeople” from parts of Africa,reported the Times on Dec. 29,1974.

That article went on to tell of

the costly and unnecessary plansof the old Soviet Union. It divert-ed time from Cold War activitiesto scheme about diverting thecoming cold front.

It had plans to reroute “largeSiberian rivers, melting Arctic iceand damming the Bering Strait”to help warm the “frigid fringesof the Soviet Union.”

Newsweek’s 1975 article “TheCooling World” noted climatolo-gists’ admission that “solutions”to global cooling “such as meltingthe arctic ice cap by covering itwith black soot or diverting arcticrivers,” could result in more prob-lems than they would solve.

More recently, 27 European cli-matologists have become worriedthat the warming trend “may beirreversible, at least over most ofthe coming century,” according toTime magazine on Nov. 13, 2000.The obvious solution? Bigger gov-ernment.

They “should start planningimmediately to adapt to the newextremes of weather that their citi-zens will face – with bans onbuilding in potential flood plainsin the north, for example, andwater conservation measures inthe south.”

Almost 50 policy and researchrecommendations came with thereport.

The news media have givenspace to numerous alleged solu-tions to our climate problems.

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 14

Stephen Salter of theUniversity of Edinburgh hadsome unusual ideas to repel aneffect of global warming. In 2002he had the notion of creating arainmaker, “which looks like agiant egg whisk,” according to theEvening News of Edinburgh on

Dec. 2, 2002. The Atlantic edition of

Newsweek on June 30, 2003,reported on the whisk. The Britishgovernment gave him 105,000pounds to research it.

Besides promoting greaterprosperity and peace, it could “lift

enough seawater to lower sea lev-els by a meter, stemming the riseof the oceans – one of the mosttroublesome consequences ofglobal warming.” The rain createdwould be redirected toward landusing the wind’s direction.

Instead of just fixing a symp-tom of global warming, Salternow wants to head it off. Hewants to spray water dropletsinto low altitude clouds toincrease their whiteness and blockout more sunlight.

The National Academy ofSciences (NAS) has consideredother ways to lower temperaturesand the media were there to givethem credence.

Newsweek on May 20, 1991,reported on five ways to fightwarming from the NationalResearch Council, the operatingarm of the NAS.

The first idea was to release“billions of aluminized, hydro-gen-filled balloons” to reflect sun-light. To reflect more sunlight,“fire one-ton shells filled withdust into the upper atmosphere.”Airplane engines could pollutemore in order to release a “layerof soot” to block the sun. Shouldany sunlight remain, 50,000 orbit-ing mirrors, 39 square miles each,could block it out.

With any heat left, “infraredlasers on mountains” could beused “to zap rising CFCs,” ren-dering them harmless.

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 15

Global warming is a goodbusiness to be in for governmentfunding. More than 99.5 percentof American climate changefunding comes from the govern-ment, which spends $4 billionper year on climate changeresearch.

Researchers use this money topromote doom and gloomreports on what man is doing tohis world.

The bigger and more cata-strophic climate change cata-clysm becomes, the more it is jus-tifiable to take more money andexert more control – a cycle thatfeeds itself. Scientist and environ-mentalist Stephen Schneiderexplained these tactics.

“On the one hand, as scientistswe are ethically bound to the sci-entific method, in effect promis-ing to tell the truth, the wholetruth, and nothing but – whichmeans that we must include allthe doubts, the caveats, the ifs,ands, and buts. On the other

hand, we are not just scientistsbut human beings as well. Andlike most people we’d like to seethe world a better place, which inthis context translates into ourworking to reduce the risk ofpotentially disastrous climaticchange. To do that we need toget some broad-based support, tocapture the public’s imagination.That, of course, entails gettingloads of media coverage. So wehave to offer up scary scenarios,make simplified, dramatic state-ments, and make little mention ofany doubts we might have.”(Discover, October, 1989)

Environmental lobbying, a$1.6 billion industry, putsincreased pressure on govern-ment to spend more on globalwarming and take more control.

Calls for higher taxes, moreregulation and greater govern-ment intervention in privatebusinesses increase as environ-mentalists propagate scarier sce-narios.

U.S. Funds Nearly $4 Billionin Climate-Change Research

Global Warming: 1981-Present and Beyond

The media have bombardedAmericans almost daily with themost recent version of the climateapocalypse.

Global warming has replacedthe media’s ice age claims, but theresults somehow have stayed thesame – the deaths of millions oreven billions of people, wide-spread devastation and starva-tion.

The recent slight increase intemperature could “quite literally,alter the fundamentals of life onthe planet” argued the Jan. 18,2006, Washington Post.

In the aftermath of HurricaneKatrina, Nicholas D. Kristof ofThe New York Times wrote a col-umn that lamented the lack offederal spending on global warm-ing.

“We spend about $500 billion ayear on a military budget, yet wedon’t want to spend peanuts toprotect against climate change,”he said in a Sept. 27, 2005, piece.

Kristof’s words were notewor-thy, not for his argument aboutspending, but for his obvious useof the term “climate change.”While his column was filled withreferences to “global warming,” italso reflected the latest trend asthe coverage has morphed onceagain.

The two terms are often usedinterchangeably, but can meansomething entirely different.

The latest threat has little to dowith global warming and haseverything to do with … every-thing.

The latest predictions claimthat warming might well triggeranother ice age.

The warm currents of the GulfStream, according to a 2005 studyby the National OceanographyCentre in Southampton, U.K.,have decreased 30 percent.

This has raised “fears that itmight fail entirely and plunge thecontinent into a mini ice age,” asthe Gulf Stream regulates temper-atures in Europe and the easternUnited States. This has “long beenpredicted” as a potential ramifica-

tion of global warming.

Hollywood picked up on thisnotion before the study and pro-duced “The Day AfterTomorrow.” In the movie globalwarming triggered an immediateice age. People had to dodgeoncoming ice. Americans werefleeing to Mexico. Wolves wereon the prowl. Meanwhile ourhero, a government paleoclimatol-ogist, had to go to New York Cityto save his son from the catastro-phe.

But it’s not just a potential iceage. Every major weather eventbecomes somehow linked to “cli-mate change.”

Numerous news reports con-nected Hurricane Katrina withchanging global temperatures.Droughts, floods and more havereceived similar media treatment.

Even The New York Timesdoesn’t go that far – yet.

In an April 23, 2006, piece,reporter Andrew C. Revkin gaveno credence to that coverage. “Atthe same time, few scientistsagree with the idea that the recentspate of potent hurricanes,European heat waves, Africandrought and other weatherextremes are, in essence, our fault.There is more than enough natu-ral variability in nature to mask adirect connection, they say.”

Unfortunately, that brief brushwith caution hasn’t touched therest of the media.

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 16

20th Century Fox’s “The Day AfterTomorrow” pushed the idea that glob-al warming could lead to an ice age.

Time magazine’s recent coverstory included this terrifyingheadline:

“Polar Ice Caps Are MeltingFaster Than Ever... More AndMore; Land Is Being DevastatedBy Drought... Rising Waters AreDrowning Low-LyingCommunities... By Any Measure,Earth Is At ... The Tipping PointThe climate is crashing, and glob-al warming is to blame. Why thecrisis hit so soon —and what wecan do about it”

That attitude reflects far moreof the current media climate. Asthe magazine claimed, many oftoday’s weather problems can beblamed on the changing climate.

“Disasters have always beenwith us and surely always will be.But when they hit this hard andcome this fast — when the emer-gency becomes commonplace —something has gone grievouslywrong. That something is globalwarming,” Time said.

Methodology

The Business & Media Institute(BMI) examined how the majormedia have covered the issue ofclimate change over a long periodof time. Because television onlygained importance in the post-World War II period, BMI lookedat major print outlets.

There were limitations withthat approach because some

major publications lack thelengthy history that others enjoy.However, the search coveredmore than 30 publications fromthe 1850s to 2006 — includingnewspapers, amagzines, journalsand books.

Recent newspaper and maga-zine articles were obtained fromLexis-Nexis. All other magazinearticles were acquired from theLibrary of Congress either in printor microfilm.

Older newspapers wereobtained from ProQuest. Theextensive bibliography includesevery publication cited in thisreport. BMI looked through thou-sands of headlines and chose hun-dreds of stories to analyze.

Dates on the time periods forcooling and warming reportingphases are approximate, and arederived from the stories that BMIanalyzed.

Conclusion

What can one conclude from110 years of conflicting climatecoverage except that the weatherchanges and the media are just ascapricious?

Certainly, their record speaksfor itself. Four separate and dis-tinct climate theories targeted at apublic taught to believe the news.Only all four versions of the truthcan’t possibly be accurate.

For ordinary Americans tojudge the media’s version of cur-rent events about global warming,it is necessary to admit that jour-nalists have misrepresented thestory three other times.

Yet no one in the media isowning up to that fact.Newspapers that pride them-selves on correction policies forthe smallest errors now findthemselves facing a historicalrecord that is enormous andunforgiving.

It is time for the news media toadmit a consistent failure toreport this issue fairly or accurate-ly, with due skepticism of scientif-ic claims.

Recommendations

It would be difficult for themedia to do a worse job with cli-mate change coverage. Perhapsthe most important suggestionwould be to remember the basicrules about journalism and setaside biases — a simple sugges-tion, but far from easy given theoverwhelming extent of the prob-lem.

Three of the guidelines fromthe Society of ProfessionalJournalists are especially appro-priate:

• “Support the open exchangeof views, even views they findrepugnant.”

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 17

• “Give voice to the voiceless;official and unofficial sources ofinformation can be equally valid.”

• “Distinguish between advo-cacy and news reporting. Analysisand commentary should belabeled and not misrepresent factor context.”

That last bullet point couldapply to almost any major newsoutlet in the United States. Theycould all learn something andtake into account the historicalcontext of media coverage of cli-mate change.

Some other important pointsinclude:

• Don’t Stifle Debate: Mostscientists do agree that the earthhas warmed a little more than adegree in the last 100 years. That

doesn’t mean that scientists con-cur mankind is to blame. Even ifthat were the case, the impact ofwarming is unclear.

People in northern climesmight enjoy improved weatherand longer growing seasons.

• Don’t Ignore the Cost:Global warming solutions pushedby environmental groups arenotoriously expensive. Just sign-ing on to the Kyoto treaty wouldhave cost the United States sever-al hundred billion dollars eachyear, according to estimates fromthe U.S. government generatedduring President Bill Clinton’sterm.

Every story that talks aboutnew regulations or forced cut-backs on emissions should discussthe cost of those proposals.

• Report Accurately onStatistics: Accurate temperaturerecords have been kept only sincethe end of the 19th Century,shortly after the world left theLittle Ice Age. So while recordedtemperatures are increasing, theyare not the warmest ever. A 2003study by Harvard and theSmithsonian Center forAstrophysics, “20th CenturyClimate Not So Hot,” “deter-mined that the 20th century is nei-ther the warmest century nor thecentury with the most extremeweather of the past 1,000 years.”

Bibliography

For a complete bibliography,go to:

www.businessandmedia.org.

To find out more information or to set up an interview, contact Colleen O’Boyle at 703-683-5004 ext. 122

Page 18