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M8.6 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES OFFSHORE BANDA ACHE,
INDONESIA: WED. AM, APRIL 11, 2012
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
WITH A TSUNAMI WANING IN EFFECT, AREA RESIDENTS
FEARED A REPEAT OF DECEMBER 26, 2004
Remembering December 26, 2004, residents began
evacuating immediately
WARNING THE PEOPLE IN BANDA ACHE
MASS EVACUATION BEGAN IMMEDIATELY IN BANDA ACHE
MASS EVACUATION BEGAN IMMEDIATELY IN BANDA ACHE
--- AND IN SRI LANKA
The good news: The tsunami wave runup was
only 1 meter (3.3 ft) and only 5 deaths, at present.
WHY WAS THE TSUNAMI SO WEAK? (Source: USGS)
• The April 11th earthquake, unlike the December, 2004 earthquake, occurred 150 km from the sub-duction zone.
• In addition, the fault rupture was mainly strike-slip; NOT thrust; hence the April 11th quake was not effective as a tsunami generator.
TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR TSUNAMIS
A PRIMER
NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL
NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL
FLOODS
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
WILDFIRES
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY
GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY
GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY
Natural Phenomena that can Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s Restlessness causes:
Earthquakes
Tsunamis Are Associated with Subduction Zone Earthquakes
• M 7 or larger earthquakes that occur in oceanic subduction zones cause:
Tsunamis
SUBDUCTION ZONE SUBDUCTION ZONE
A TSUNAMI WAVE CAN REACH 10 M OR MORE IN HEIGHT
A TSUNAMI WAVE CAN REACH 10 M OR MORE IN HEIGHT
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•TSUNAMI HAZARDS •INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
TSUNAMI DISASTER RISK TSUNAMI DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONREDUCTION
•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION•EDUCATIONAL SURGE
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
TSUNAMI HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD WATER WAVES
• WAVE RUNUP • FLOODING• WAVE RETREAT• SHORELINE EROSION
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES
TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF THE STORY.
KNOWING WHERE, WHEN, AND WHY A TSUNAMI OCCURS IS A VITAL PART OF THE ART
AND SCIENCE OF INTELLIGENT EVACUATION.
INTELLIGENT EVACUATION:LEAVE THE AREA OR EVACUATE VERTICALLY
INTELLIGENT EVACUATION:LEAVE THE AREA OR EVACUATE VERTICALLY
• LEAVE, IF ENOUGH ADVANCE WARNING
• EVACUATE TO A TALL BUILDING OR A HIGHER ELEVATION TO GET BEYOND REACH OF THE TSUNAMI’S WAVE RUNUP.
• LEAVE, IF ENOUGH ADVANCE WARNING
• EVACUATE TO A TALL BUILDING OR A HIGHER ELEVATION TO GET BEYOND REACH OF THE TSUNAMI’S WAVE RUNUP.
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF KNOWING WHEN TO EVACUATE
BEFORE A TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVES AND WHERE TO GO
CAN BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH.
EVACUATION FOR A TSUNAMI IS COMPLICATED BY:
1) THE SHORT TIME BETWEEN THE EARTHQUAKE AND THE TSUNAMI
WAVE ARRIVAL, AND
2) DAMAGE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION TO BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE CAUSED BY THE EARTHQUAKE AND
ITS AFTER SHOCK SEQUENCE.
WHEN YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, OR YOU ARE
UNABLE TO EVACUATE, THE ODDS FOR SURVIVAL ARE
LOWER, BECAUSE ---
YOU CAN’T OUTRUN OR DIVERT10-M-HIGH, DEBRIS-LADEN,
OCEAN WAVES THAT ARRIVE WITH A HIGH VELOCITY (E.G., 30 TO 300 KM/HR) AND MOVE
RAPIDLY INLAND FOR 2-3 KM, OR MORE
DETAILS OF THE STORY
EXAMPLE 1: GREAT SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE-INDIAN OCEAN
TSUNAMI DISASTER
DECEMBER 26, 2004
(A Sunday morning)
ABOUT ½ HOUR FOR TSUNAMI WAVES TO REACH BANDA ACHE; LONGER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS
TSUNAMI TRAVERSES INDIAN OCEANI: 26 DECEMBER 2004
THE FACTS
• THE TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED BY A SHALLOW, M 9.3 EARTHQUAKE LOCATED 260 KM (155 MI) FROM BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA
THE FACTS
• THE TSUNAMI WAVES HAD HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 10 M AND RUNUP OF 3.3 KM OR MORE ON THE COAST LINES OF 12 NATIONS
THE FACTS
• THE EXISTING TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM WAS INEFFECTIVE.
• LITTLE OR NO EVACUATION.
THE FACTS (Continued)
• AN ESTIMATED 220,000 PEOPLE WERE KILLED (120,000 IN INDONESIA) AND 500,000 INJURED IN 12 COUNTRIES BORDERING THE INDIAN OCEAN
THE FACTS (Continued)
• THE MOST URGENT IMMEDIATE NEED WAS FOR FOOD, WATER, AND HEALTH CARE SERVICES.
• DISEASES APPROACHING AN EPIDEMIC, “A DISASTER AFTER THE DISASTER,” DID NOT HAPPEN.
BEFORE DECEMBER 26, 2004 EARTHQUAKE-TSUNAMI
AFTER DECEMBER 26, 2004 EARTHQUAKE-TSUNAMI
BEFORE DECEMBER 26, 2004 EARTHQUAKE-TSUNAMI
AFTER DECEMBER 26, 2004 EARTHQUAKE-TSUNAMI
IMPACTS OF TSUNAMI DISASTER
• MILLIONS DISPLACED AND HOMELESS
• LOSSES IN $ BILLIONS
• INTERNATIONAL DONORS CONTRIBUTED OVER $ 1 BILLION IN EFFORT COORDINATED BY THE UN, USA, INDIA, AUSTRALIA, & JAPAN.
INTERNATIONAL DONORS RESPOND
• INTERNATIONAL DONORS CONTRIBUTED OVER $ 1 BILLION IN EFFORT COORDINATED BY THE UN, USA, INDIA, AUSTRALIA, & JAPAN.
TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM FOR INDIAN OCEAN REGION
• UNESCO, IN COOPERATION WITH OTHER ORGANIZTIONS, TOOK THE LEAD FOR DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING AN INPROVED TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN.