+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Macquarie Group Limited ASX Code: MQG Price: $119.10 12 ...Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) is a global...

Macquarie Group Limited ASX Code: MQG Price: $119.10 12 ...Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) is a global...

Date post: 08-Oct-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 2 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
2
Business Summary Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) is a global provider of banking, financial, advisory, investment and fund management services, headquartered in Sydney. Latest Research Gas Price Spike Adds to a Golden Few Months for CGM MQG has upgraded FY21 guidance as commodities revenues spike – Just 2 weeks after guiding the Market to “slightly down compared to FY20”, implying cash NPAT of $2.4-$2.7bn, Macquarie has suddenly revised its guidance to “up 5-10% on FY20”, implying FY21 cash profit of $2.85-$3.0bn or ~15% higher. For more information see research 23 Feb 2021. GICS - Div. Financials Macquarie Group Limited ASX Code: MQG Price: $145.32 12 Mth Target Price: $125.00 Rating: Sell Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement with Bell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell Potter Securities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document. This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is general investment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person. Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended. Snapshot Date Market Cap. Shares on issue 12 Month High 12 Month Low 26 February 2021 $52,580m 361.8m $149.00 $70.45 Rating Rating 12 Mth Target Price Capital Gain Gross Yield Implied Total Return Sell $125.00 -14.0% 3.9% -10.1% Investment Fundamentals FYE 31 Mar 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F Profit $m 2,636.0 2,839.0 2,655.0 3,043.0 Profit (norm)* $m 2,636.0 2,839.0 2,655.0 3,043.0 EPS* ¢ 765.0 796.0 747.0 851.0 EPS Growth % -11.9 4.1 -6.2 13.9 P/E* x 19.0 18.3 19.5 17.1 P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DPS ¢ 430.0 385.0 490.0 570.0 Yield % 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.9 Franking % 42.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source: Based on Citi estimates Share Price Chart Total Return on $10,000 Investment
Transcript
Page 1: Macquarie Group Limited ASX Code: MQG Price: $119.10 12 ...Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) is a global provider of banking, financial, advisory, investment and fund management services,

Business SummaryMacquarie Group Limited (MQG) is a global provider of banking, financial,advisory, investment and fund management services, headquartered inSydney.

Latest ResearchGas Price Spike Adds to a Golden Few Months for CGM

MQG has upgraded FY21 guidance as commodities revenues spike – Just2

weeks after guiding the Market to “slightly down compared to FY20”,implying cash NPAT of $2.4-$2.7bn, Macquarie has suddenly revised itsguidance to “up 5-10% on FY20”, implying FY21 cash profit of$2.85-$3.0bn or ~15% higher.

For more information see research 23 Feb 2021.

GICS - Div. Financials

Macquarie Group Limited

ASX Code: MQG Price: $145.32 12 Mth Target Price: $125.00 Rating: Sell

Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investmentobjectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement withBell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell PotterSecurities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document.This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is generalinvestment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person.Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in thiscommission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Snapshot

DateMarket Cap.Shares on issue12 Month High12 Month Low

26 February 2021$52,580m361.8m$149.00$70.45

RatingRating12 Mth Target Price

Capital GainGross Yield

Implied Total Return

Sell$125.00-14.0%3.9%-10.1%

Investment FundamentalsFYE 31 Mar 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F

Profit $m 2,636.0 2,839.0 2,655.0 3,043.0Profit (norm)* $m 2,636.0 2,839.0 2,655.0 3,043.0

EPS* ¢ 765.0 796.0 747.0 851.0EPS Growth % -11.9 4.1 -6.2 13.9P/E* x 19.0 18.3 19.5 17.1P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS ¢ 430.0 385.0 490.0 570.0Yield % 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.9Franking % 42.0 43.0 43.0 43.0* Adjusted for goodwill and unusual itemsSource: Based on Citi estimates

Share Price Chart

Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Page 2: Macquarie Group Limited ASX Code: MQG Price: $119.10 12 ...Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) is a global provider of banking, financial, advisory, investment and fund management services,

Profit & Loss ($M)2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A

Sales Revenue 4,862 4,331 4,670 5,526 5,837Total Revenue ex. Int. 9,368 8,674 10,219 12,942 12,414EBITDA 1,793 1,786 2,913 3,030 2,904Depreciation & Amort. -835 -876 -1,132 -1,518 -1,365Goodwill Amortisation -- -- -- -- --EBIT 958 910 1,781 1,512 1,539Net Interest 2,279 2,185 1,986 1,760 1,859Profit Before Tax 3,237 3,095 3,767 3,272 3,398Income Tax -927 -868 -883 -879 -728Outside Equity Int. -25 -19 -24 -6 5Profit after Tax 2,285 2,208 2,860 2,387 2,675Significant Items after Tax -222 9 -303 595 56Reported Profit after Tax 2,063 2,217 2,557 2,982 2,731Preferred Dividends -- -- -- -- --

Cash Flow ($M)2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A

Receipts from Customers -- 5,508 1,831 2,719 --Funds from Operations -6,931 -98 -3,918 -1,697 -4,841Net Operating Cashflow 12,823 -5,708 4,450 764 12,119Capex -183 -329 -255 -633 -1,165Acquisitions & Investments -16,986 -2,619 -4,224 -2,437 -4,661Sale of Invest. & Subsid. 1,897 6,081 3,621 5,593 3,000Net Investing Cashflow -15,238 3,133 -800 2,523 -2,745Proceeds from Issues 530 -- -- -- 1,670Dividends Paid -1,228 -1,477 -1,663 -1,835 -2,122Net Financing Cashflow -238 9 -2,399 -1,138 -1,075Net Increase Cash -2,653 -2,566 1,251 2,149 8,299Cash at Beginning 16,973 14,320 11,754 13,005 18,867Exchange Rate Adjust. -- -- -- -- 1,794Cash at End 14,320 11,754 13,005 15,154 28,960

Ratios and Substantial Shareholders2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A

Profitability RatiosEBITDA Margin % 36.88 41.24 62.38 54.83 49.75EBIT Margin % 19.70 21.01 38.14 27.36 26.37Net Profit Margin % 47.00 50.98 61.24 43.20 45.83Return on Equity % 15.12 14.19 17.48 13.44 12.70Return on Assets % 2.30 2.36 2.60 2.42 1.95

Debt/Safety RatiosNet Debt/Equity % 790.42 675.67 664.93 614.64 678.14Interest Cover x -0.42 -0.42 -0.90 -0.86 -0.83

Top 5 Substantial ShareholdersBlackRock Group 5.0%The Vanguard Group,Inc 5.0%

Balance Sheet ($M)2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A

Cash & Equivalent -- -- -- 9,787 9,717Receivables 59,447 27,471 38,559 4,285 5,737Inventories -- -- -- -- --Other Current Assets 59,218 62,490 49,717 82,470 110,828Current Assets 118,665 89,961 91,617 105,565 127,916Prop. Plant & Equipment 11,521 11,009 11,426 4,701 5,044Intangibles 1,078 1,009 993 2,031 3,268Other Non-Current Assets 113,265 139,153 130,867 160,944 204,945Non-Current Assets 78,090 92,916 99,708 97,617 127,886Total Assets 196,755 182,877 191,325 203,182 255,802Interest Bearing Debt 123,811 116,688 120,884 122,660 157,443Other Liabilities 57,280 48,919 52,261 62,158 76,575Total Liabilities 181,091 165,607 173,145 184,818 234,018Net Assets 15,664 17,270 18,180 18,364 21,784Share Capital 6,422 6,290 6,243 6,181 7,851Reserves 1,536 1,396 1,297 1,773 2,773Retained Earnings 7,158 7,877 8,817 9,807 10,439Outside Equity Int. 548 1,707 1,823 603 721Total Shareholders Equity 15,664 17,270 18,180 18,364 21,784

Current Analyst Recommendations *

* Source: Morningstar. This chart shows the spread of recommendations from thosebroker analyst's in Australia with research coverage of this stock.

Principals & DirectorsPrincipals

Company Secretary Mr Dennis Leong

Directors

Ms Diane Jennifer Grady(Non-Executive Director)Ms Jillian Rosemary Broadbent(Non-Executive Director)Mr Gordon McK Cairns(Non-Executive Director)Mr Michael J Coleman(Non-Executive Director)Mr Peter Hastings Warne(Non-Executive Director,Non-ExecutiveChairman)Mr Philip Mathew Coffey(Non-Executive Director)Ms Shemara Wikramanayake(Executive Director,Chief ExecutiveOfficer,Managing Director)Ms Rebecca Joy McGrath(Non-Executive Director)Ms Nicola Wakefield Evans(Non-Executive Director)Mr Glenn R Stevens(Non-Executive Director)Mr Mike Roche(Non-Executive Director)

To access further Research or for information regarding our recommendations and ratings please seewww.bellpotter.com.au

© 2021 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Neither Morningstar, its affiliates, nor the content providers guarantee the data or content contained herein to be accurate, complete or timely nor will they have any liabilityfor its use or distribution. Any Morningstar ratings/recommendations contained in this report are based on the full research report available from Morningstar or your adviser. Any general advice or ‘class service’ havebeen prepared by Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892) and/or Morningstar Research Ltd, subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc, without reference to your objectives, financial situation orneeds. Refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for more information at www.morningstar.com.au/s/fsg.pdf. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant ProductDisclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Our publications, ratings and products should be viewed as an additional investment resource, not as your sole source of information. Past performancedoes not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Some material is copyright and published under licence fromASX Operations Pty Ltd ACN 004 523 782.

Macquarie Group Limited

Bell Potter Securities Research

AFS Licence No. 243480 ABN 25 006 390 772

Email [email protected]

Website www.bellpotter.com.au


Recommended