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1
Ana Fernanda MaiguashcaBanco de la República
Board of DirectorsJanuary 2015
This presentation includes my personal opinions and do not represent those of the Board or of the Central Bank.
Macro Outlook2015
Growth 2013-2014
Source: Dane, Cálculos Banco de la República.
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14
GDP Internal Demand X-M
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LATAM
Source: Bloomberg
Components
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14
Internal Demand
Total Consumption
Investment
Source: Dane, Cálculos Banco de la República.
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The Figures
Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14
Investment 3.9% 0.6% 12.2% 8.1% 15.2% 11.2% 12.7%Agriculture -2.2% -5.6% -9.7% -13.9% 3.7% 26.4% 6.6%Machs + Equipment 3.2% 2.6% 1.4% 4.2% 12.8% 6.5% 11.2%Transport equipment -14.6% -14.7% 1.6% 9.7% 3.6% 16.1% 17.9%Construction 12.2% 12.5% 31.8% -3.6% 8.2% 2.2% 14.9%Civil Works 7.8% -1.4% 21.4% 23.0% 25.5% 17.7% 11.1%Services 4.4% -3.2% 13.5% 2.8% 7.5% 7.2% 1.3%
ConsumptionHousehold Consumption 3.5% 4.2% 4.4% 4.8% 5.4% 5.3% 4.5%Public Consumption 5.4% 5.5% 6.0% 6.2% 8.1% 6.5% 5.4%
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fedesarrollo
-12
-2
8
18
28
38
nov-
05
may
-06
nov-
06
may
-07
nov-
07
may
-08
nov-
08
may
-09
nov-
09
may
-10
nov-
10
may
-11
nov-
11
may
-12
nov-
12
may
-13
nov-
13
may
-14
nov-
14
Indicador de confianza del consumidor de Fedesarrollo
Promedio: 16,5
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Fuente: Banco de la República
Business Environment
Labor Market
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
nov‐04
may‐05
nov‐05
may‐06
nov‐06
may‐07
nov‐07
may‐08
nov‐08
may‐09
nov‐09
may‐10
nov‐10
may‐11
nov‐11
may‐12
nov‐12
may‐13
nov‐13
may‐14
nov‐14
TasadeDesempleo(Desestacionalizada)
TotalNacional13Áreas
Source: Dane, Cálculos Banco de la República.
Unemployment Rateseasonally adjusted
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Shocks
ToT
Fed funds rate hike?
2014 H2
2015
Vulnerabilities
Fiscal impact
CAD
Pass Through
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Terms of Trade
Fuente: Bloomberg
Commodity X/M Level(02/jan)
Monthly change Yo Y change
Oil X 55.7 -21% -48%
Coffee X 1.6 -12% 45%
Coal X 56.1 0% -12%
Sugar X 15.1 -7% -8%
Wheat M 5.9 -3% -1.5%
Corn M 3.8 5% -7%
Soy M 9.9 0% -25%
Copper 6309 -2% -15%
Silver 15.7 -4% -21%
Oil Impact
Fiscal• 19% of Fiscal
Revenue• 3.2% of GDP
Exports
• 47% of Exports• Oil value
added: 5.6% of GDP
FDI • 32% of FDI• 1.4% of GDP
Source: Uribe 2015
OIL
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Fiscal Shock
Source: Uribe 2015
Fiscal sensitivity for 2015’s budget
USD 1 decrease in prices, WTI
COP 420 mm
Increase in $10 COP/USD
COP 314 mm
CAD
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (ene-sep)
Brasil Chile Perú México Colombia
Source: Central Banks, IMF, figures for Brazil include October
4.6% of GDP
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Oil BOP
Source: Uribe 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
dic‐09 dic‐10 dic‐11 dic‐12 dic‐13 dic‐14
Inflación total al consumidor
Total Rango Meta
%
dic‐14 3.66%
nov‐14 3.65%
oct‐14 3.29%
sep‐14 2.86%
ago‐14 3.02%
Fuente: DANE. Cálculos Banco de la República.
Headline CPI
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Fuente: DANE. Cálculos Banco de la República.
2
3
4
dic‐09 dic‐10 dic‐11 dic‐12 dic‐13 dic‐14
Indicadores de inflación básica
Promedio de 4
%dic‐14 3.06%
nov‐14 2.85%
oct‐14 2.76%
sep‐14 2.63%
ago‐14 2.70%
Average of 4 core CPI indicators
Fuente: DANE. Cálculos Banco de la República.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
dic‐09 dic‐10 dic‐11 dic‐12 dic‐13 dic‐14
Inflación anual de Regulados
%dic‐14 4.84%
nov‐14 5.32%
oct‐14 4.07%
sep‐14 3.25%
ago‐14 3.83%
Regulated Components of CPI
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Fuente: DANE. Cálculos Banco de la República.
‐1
1
3
5
7
9
dic‐09 dic‐10 dic‐11 dic‐12 dic‐13 dic‐14
Inflación anual de Alimentos
%dic‐14 4.69%
nov‐14 4.88%
oct‐14 4.27%
sep‐14 3.25%
ago‐14 3.47%
Food CPI
Shocks
ToT
Fed funds rate hike?
2014 H2
2015
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ShocksFed funds rate hike?
• What will FED do?• What is the effect of this “single engine
growth” scenario over US recovery?• What will the net effect on global liquidity will be
with ECB moving in the opposite direction?• Will there be a massive withdrawal from
emerging markets?• Did this scenario changed given the positive
effects of oil price drop on the non exporters?
Strenghts
Starting point: growth and inflation
Currency mismatches
Financial stability
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Thank you
• Uribe, Jose Darío, note prepared for the “Meeting of Governors from Major Emerging MarketsEconomies”, Jan. 2015
References
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ContribuciónConsumo Hogares 3.3%Consumo Público 1.2%FBK 4.7%Edificaciones 0.6%Obras Civiles 2.2%Resto 2.0%
Exportaciones 1.2%Importaciones -4.3%Discrepancia Est. 0.3%PIB 6.4%
