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Macro Update: Slowdown, but continued good resilience in Baltics

Date post: 04-Apr-2018
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 ^am Eki~jhx0 Xiownowf) e}~ hof~jf}mn goon umxjijmfhm ^A]UXNKZ @KF]KUZ ;4) 54;8  Wm kum x~jhcjfg ~o o}u boumhkx~ ob hof~jf}mn gukn}ki umhormuz jf ~am Eki~jhx) nmxtj~m jfnjhk~jofx ob xolmwak~ xiowmu guow~a jf [> 54;5 kfn jf mkuiz 54;8& Jf Ik~rjk kfn Ij~a}kfjk) ~ajx xiownowf jx lkjfiz ~jmn ~o wmkc hktj~ki xtmfnjfg) wajim jf Mx~ofjk mqtou~x kum xt}~~mujfg& N}ujfg [8 ormukii guow~a o~amuwjxm uoxm0 Mx~ofjk‚x GNT gumw ez 8&= tmu hmf~ zmku,of,zmku) }t buol 5&5 tmu hmf~ jf [5& Ij~a}kfjkf guow~a xokumn buol 5&; ~o >&> tmu hmf~& Jf Ik~rjk) wajha akx xaowf loum x~keim tmuboulkfhm jf ~am tkx~ zmku) guow~a hijlemn lkugjfkiiz ~o =&5 tmu hmf~ jf [8 ‘ ~am bkx~mx~ jf ~am M]&  K uoe}x~ jfhumkxm jf tujrk~m hofx}lt~jof wjii amit x}x~kjf GNT guow~a jf kii ~aumm ho}f~ujmx) b}miimn ez gukn}ki ikeo}u lkucm~ jltuormlmf~x) iow jf~mumx~ uk~mx kfn jf Mx~ofjk kfn Ik~rjk kixo toxj~jrm umki wkgm guow~a& Lmkfwajim mqtou~x kum aoinjfg }t nmhmf~iz nmxtj~m xhkf~z Wmx~muf nmlkfn) ki~ao}ga xaou~ ~mul xiownowf jf U}xxjk kfn Toikfn) jf holejfk~jof wj~a imxx ~akf mqtmh~mn x}ttou~ buol M] x~u}h~}uki b}fnx jf 54;>) akx imn }x ~o ~ujl o}u Ij~a}kfjkf GNT boumhkx~x xolmwak~ holtkumn ~o Founjh O}~iooc jf Formlemu 54;5& Mqtou~x kum holtm~j~jrm kb~mu mkuijmu jf~mufki nmrki}k~jofx) wj~a jfuoknx emjfg lknm jf fmw fmkuez lkucm~x kx Wmx~muf M}uotm akx x~kgfk~mn& E}~ Mx~ofjk‚x mqtou~ guow~a jx umik~jrmiz xi}ggjxa) ikugmiz n}m ~o ~ajx k}~}lf‚x mhofoljh nmhmimuk~jof jf ~am cmz Xwmnjxa kfn Bjffjxa lkucm~x& Ljckmi @oakfxxof Mhofoljh Umxmkuha #>2 1 728 14 :8 Cmz nk~k Tmuhmf~kgm hakfgm 54;; 54;5 54;8 54;> GNT) Mx~ofjk 1&> 8&; 8&8 >&4 GNT) Ik~rjk =&= =&8 8&1 >&= GNT) Ij~a}kfjk =&: 8&= 8&5 8&= Jfbik~jof) Mx~ofjk =&; 8&: >&8 >&> Jfbik~jof) Ik~rjk >&5 5&5 5&; 8&4 Jfbik~jof) Ij~a}kfjk >&; 8&5 8&= 8&= Xo}uhm0 XME
Transcript

7/30/2019 Macro Update: Slowdown, but continued good resilience in Baltics

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/macro-update-slowdown-but-continued-good-resilience-in-baltics 1/2

 

^am Eki~jhx0 Xiownowf) e}~ hof~jf}mn goon umxjijmfhm^A]UXNKZ

@KF]KUZ ;4) 54;8

  Wm kum x~jhcjfg ~o o}u boumhkx~ ob hof~jf}mn gukn}ki umhormuz jf ~am Eki~jhx) nmxtj~m jfnjhk~jofx ob xolmwak~ xiowmu guow~a jf [> 54;5 kfn jf mkuiz 54;8& Jf Ik~rjk kfnIj~a}kfjk) ~ajx xiownowf jx lkjfiz ~jmn ~o wmkc hktj~ki xtmfnjfg) wajim jf Mx~ofjkmqtou~x kum xt}~~mujfg& N}ujfg [8 ormukii guow~a o~amuwjxm uoxm0 Mx~ofjk‚x GNT gumw ez8&= tmu hmf~ zmku,of,zmku) }t buol 5&5 tmu hmf~ jf [5& Ij~a}kfjkf guow~a xokumn buol

5&; ~o >&> tmu hmf~& Jf Ik~rjk) wajha akx xaowf loum x~keim tmuboulkfhm jf ~am tkx~zmku) guow~a hijlemn lkugjfkiiz ~o =&5 tmu hmf~ jf [8 ‘ ~am bkx~mx~ jf ~am M]&

  K uoe}x~ jfhumkxm jf tujrk~m hofx}lt~jof wjii amit x}x~kjf GNT guow~a jf kii ~aummho}f~ujmx) b}miimn ez gukn}ki ikeo}u lkucm~ jltuormlmf~x) iow jf~mumx~ uk~mx kfn jfMx~ofjk kfn Ik~rjk kixo toxj~jrm umki wkgm guow~a& Lmkfwajim mqtou~x kum aoinjfg }tnmhmf~iz nmxtj~m xhkf~z Wmx~muf nmlkfn) ki~ao}ga xaou~ ~mul xiownowf jf U}xxjk kfnToikfn) jf holejfk~jof wj~a imxx ~akf mqtmh~mn x}ttou~ buol M] x~u}h~}uki b}fnx jf54;>) akx imn }x ~o ~ujl o}u Ij~a}kfjkf GNT boumhkx~x xolmwak~ holtkumn ~oFounjh O}~iooc jf Formlemu 54;5& Mqtou~x kum holtm~j~jrm kb~mu mkuijmu jf~mufkinmrki}k~jofx) wj~a jfuoknx emjfg lknm jf fmw fmkuez lkucm~x kx Wmx~muf M}uotm akxx~kgfk~mn& E}~ Mx~ofjk‚x mqtou~ guow~a jx umik~jrmiz xi}ggjxa) ikugmiz n}m ~o ~ajxk}~}lf‚x mhofoljh nmhmimuk~jof jf ~am cmz Xwmnjxa kfn Bjffjxa lkucm~x&

Ljckmi @oakfxxof

Mhofoljh Umxmkuha

#>2 1 728 14 :8

Cmz nk~kTmuhmf~kgm hakfgm

54;; 54;5 54;8 54;>

GNT) Mx~ofjk 1&> 8&; 8&8 >&4

GNT) Ik~rjk =&= =&8 8&1 >&=

GNT) Ij~a}kfjk =&: 8&= 8&5 8&=

Jfbik~jof) Mx~ofjk =&; 8&: >&8 >&>

Jfbik~jof) Ik~rjk >&5 5&5 5&; 8&4

Jfbik~jof) Ij~a}kfjk >&; 8&5 8&= 8&=Xo}uhm0 XME

7/30/2019 Macro Update: Slowdown, but continued good resilience in Baltics

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/macro-update-slowdown-but-continued-good-resilience-in-baltics 2/2

 Mhofoljh Jfxjga~x

NJRMUGMF^ XMF^JLMF^ X]URMZX ‘ IK^RJK TOJXMN ̂ O @OJF M]UO POFM) M]UO JXX]M X^JII KIJRM JF IJ^A]KFJK

  Jf umhmf~ lof~ax) nk~k buol ~am M}uotmkf Holljxxjof‚x xmf~jlmf~ x}urmzx akrm tuorjnmn ljqmn xjgfkix0 wmkcmulolmf~}l jf jfn}x~uz jf Mx~ofjk e}~ bkjuiz x~keim ~umfnx jf Ik~rjk kfn Ij~a}kfjk) kfn k hof~jf}mn toxj~jrm ~umfn jfao}xmaoin hofbjnmfhm mqhmt~ jf Mx~ofjk wamum ot~jljxl akx nwjfnimn ik~miz& ^am Eki~jh ho}f~ujmx kum gmfmukiiz loumx~keim ~akf Wmx~muf M}uotm) mrmf ~ao}ga Mx~ofjk akx woeeimn jf ~am tkx~ bmw lof~ax& Keorm kii) ~am holtoxj~m

ao}xmaoin kfn e}xjfmxx xmf~jlmf~ jfnjhk~oux jf ~am Eki~jhx kum wmii keorm ~aoxm jf ~am m}uo pofm0 ;4= jf Ik~rjk) ;45jf Mx~ofjk) ;4; jf Ij~a}kfjk holtkumn ~o 17 jf ~am m}uo pofm& ^am ajx~oujhki krmukgmx kum ;44&

  Ikeo}u lkucm~x akrm hof~jf}mn ~o jltuorm& Khhounjfg ~o M}uox~k~‚x x~kfnkunjxmn x~k~jx~jhx) jf eo~a Xmt~mlemukfn Oh~oemu ~am Eki~jhx xaowmn ~am M]‚x ikugmx~ zmku,of,zmku }fmltiozlmf~ nowf~}uf& Khhounjfg ~o fk~jofki nk~k)jf [8 Mx~ofjk bmii emiow ;4 tmu hmf~0 :&7& E}~ Ij~a}kfjk kfn Ik~rjk x~jii umtou~mn no}eim,njgj~ ̀ oeimxx uk~mx0 ;5&8 kfn;8&= tmu hmf~) umxtmh~jrmiz& Emhk}xm ob ijfgmujfg }fhmu~kjf~z keo}~ hktj~ki xtmfnjfg kfn mqtou~ ~umfnx kfn ~am bkh~~ak~ ~amju xmurjhm xmh~oux akrm kiumknz emg}f ajujfg) wm tumnjh~ xi}ggjxa nowf~}ufx jf }fmltiozlmf~ ~ajx zmku&

  Ik~rjk akx fow t}eijhiz kffo}fhmn !BL Rjicx) Nmhmlemu ;1* ~ak~ jf Bmeu}kuz ~am ho}f~uz wjii kttiz bou m}uo pofmkhhmxxjof jf 54;>& Wm akrm iofg tumnjh~mn ~ak~ Ik~rjk wjii kixo gm~ ~am gummf ijga~ kb~mu ~am M}uotmkf ]fjof kfn~am M}uotmkf Hmf~uki Ekfc akrm holtim~mn ~amju mrki}k~jof) tuoekeiz jf Lkz3 ;& ^am Lkkx~ujha~ huj~mujk kum wj~ajfumkha0 ^am e}ngm~ nmbjhj~ jx kuo}fn ; tmu hmf~ ob GNT kfn jfbik~jof jx iow kfn x~keim) x~kfnjfg k~ uo}gaiz }fhakfgmn;&= tmu hmf~ jf ~am bjfki ~aumm lof~ax ob 54;5& 5& Hofrmugmfhm kjlmn k~ b}~}um m}uo pofm lmlemuxajt wkx ofm ob~am cmz oe`mh~jrmx ob ~am 5441,54;; M]/JLB,imn jf~mufk~jofki ekji,o}~ tkhckgm& 8& ^am M] kfn MHE wkf~ ~o xaow~ak~ ~am m}uo tuohmxx jx kijrm nmxtj~m ~am mhofoljh hujxjx&

  Ij~a}kfjk‚x fmw imb~jx~,imn hokij~jof gormuflmf~) boulmn jf ljn,Nmhmlemu kb~mu ~am Oh~oemu 54;5 mimh~jof) wjiiiooxmf xolmwak~ ~am k}x~muj~z toijhjmx t}ux}mn ez ~am tumrjo}x hmf~um,ujga~ gormuflmf~& TL E}~cmrjhj}x) imknmu ob~am Xohjki Nmlohuk~x) akx ijx~mn x}ha mhofoljh gokix kx k ajgamu ljfjl}l wkgm buol @kf}kuz ;) 54;8) k umrjmw ob~am ~kq xzx~ml wj~a kf mzm ~o h}~~jfg jfholm ~kqmx kfn ukjxjfg ~kqmx of hktj~ki kfn jf~uon}h~jof ob ~kugm~mn ~kq umijmbbou jfrmx~lmf~x jf wmkc umgjofx& ^ajx nmhikuk~jof wkx fo~ }fmqtmh~mn& Loum x}utujxjfg wkx ~ak~ ~am fmwgormuflmf~ wo}in kixo ijcm Ij~a}kfjk ~o knot~ ~am m}uo kx xoof kx toxxjeim) ~kugm~jfg 54;=& ̂ am tumrjo}xgormuflmf~ ~kugm~mn 54;>& Wm akn ~ao}ga~ ~ak~ gjrmf ~am mimh~jof o}~holm) ~am m}uo jxx}m wo}in em umimgk~mn ~okf mrmf iowmu tujouj~z& O}u boumhkx~ akx xjfhm k zmku kgo emmf ~ak~ 54;= jx ~am mkuijmx~ nk~m bou Ij~a}kfjk ~o

knot~ ~am m}uo) xjfhm ~am ho}f~uz jx jf wouxm xaktm ~akf Ik~rjk jf ~mulx ob lmm~jfg M] jfbik~jof kfn e}ngm~ huj~mujk&


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