Technical analysis Macro Weekly review 01/12/2014 Messels is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; a disclaimer and risk warning is included on the final page of this report. In this week’s report, charts of: Equity Indices p.1: FTSE World ($); S&P 500; S&P 400; VIX; FTSE 100; Euro Stoxx 50; DAX; MSCI EM; SENSEX 30; S&P Asia 50; Nikkei 225; MSCI Far East ex Japan; Hang Seng; CSI 300. Currencies p.8: US$ Index; JPY; EUR; AUD; GBP; GBP/EUR; GBP/AUD; GBP/JPY; Asia Dollar. Benchmark Sov. Bond Yields p.13: US 5Y Note; US 10Y Note; US 30Y Note; UK 2Y Note; UK 10Y Gilt; UK 30Y Gilt; 10Y Euro Bund; 10Y JGB. Commodities p.17: DJ-UBS Commodity TR; WTI Crude; Copper; Chinese Iron Ore; Gold ($); DJ-UBS Agriculture; Soybeans; Wheat. The FTSE World Index ($) (daily chart) finds short term resistance The weekly chart shows the uptrend from the 2009 low Technical analysts: Tim Parker [email protected]07753 606 810 Dominic Hawker [email protected]07887 653 809 1 st December 2014 Summary The S&P 500 index reaches resistance at the top of the up-channel (p.2); the DAX finds resistance at the big round number (p.5). India again made a new high and China spikes up into overbought territory. Japan approaches resistance at 2007 highs (p.7). The US$ Index approaches resistance at 90.0 – drawn from 1995. The $/JPY medium term target remains 125. EUR/$ falls to long term support at 1.20 (p.9). Cable maintains the downtrend. The Asia Dollar shows no reaction at medium term support (p.13). Sovereign benchmark bond yields accelerate downtrends ... Coincident black and yellow break-downs as Crude Oil accelerates lower and Copper breaks medium term support (pp 18-19). Section 1: Equity Indices Source: Messels Source: Messels
Transcript
Technical analysis Macro Weekly review
01/12/2014 Messels is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; a disclaimer and risk warning is included on the final page of this report.
In this week’s report, charts of:
Equity Indices p.1: FTSE World ($); S&P 500; S&P 400; VIX; FTSE 100; Euro Stoxx 50; DAX; MSCI EM; SENSEX 30; S&P Asia 50; Nikkei 225; MSCI Far East ex Japan; Hang Seng; CSI 300. Currencies p.8: US$ Index; JPY; EUR; AUD; GBP; GBP/EUR; GBP/AUD; GBP/JPY; Asia Dollar. Benchmark Sov. Bond Yields p.13: US 5Y Note; US 10Y Note; US 30Y Note; UK 2Y Note; UK 10Y Gilt; UK 30Y Gilt; 10Y Euro Bund; 10Y JGB. Commodities p.17: DJ-UBS Commodity TR; WTI Crude; Copper; Chinese Iron Ore; Gold ($); DJ-UBS Agriculture; Soybeans; Wheat.
The FTSE World Index ($) (daily chart) finds short term
resistance
The weekly chart shows the uptrend from the 2009 low
Summary The S&P 500 index reaches resistance at the top of the up-channel (p.2); the DAX finds resistance at the big round number (p.5). India again made a new high and China spikes up into overbought territory. Japan approaches resistance at 2007 highs (p.7). The US$ Index approaches resistance at 90.0 – drawn from 1995. The $/JPY medium term target remains 125. EUR/$ falls to long term support at 1.20 (p.9). Cable maintains the downtrend. The Asia Dollar shows no reaction at medium term support (p.13). Sovereign benchmark bond yields accelerate downtrends ... Coincident black and yellow break-downs as Crude Oil accelerates lower and Copper breaks medium term support (pp 18-19).
Section 1: Equity Indices
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The S&P 500 index (weekly) reaches resistance at the top of
the up-channel
The daily chart shows support at 2,010
The S&P 400 Mid Cap index pulls back from the high
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The VIX rallies from near the bottom of the range
The FTSE 100 index trades within the 18-month range
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The Euro Stoxx 50 index rallies towards the top of the range
The weekly chart shows that a new high is needed to confirm
the 30-month uptrend
The DAX (weekly) has broken out and reaches the high at
10,000
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… the daily chart shows the DAX has found resistance at the
highs at 10,000
The MSCI EM index pulls back from the top of the 2-month
range
… the weekly chart shows that the 18-month uptrend is intact
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The SENSEX makes a bullish new high
The S&P Asia 50 index (weekly) maintains the uptrend
The Nikkei 225 index (weekly) has broken out
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… the monthly chart shows resistance at 18,000 from the
2007 highs
The MSCI Far East ex Japan index (weekly) maintains the 3-
year uptrend
The Hang Seng index (monthly) shows a 6-year bullish
ascending triangle
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The CSI 300 index (weekly) tests resistance at the 2013
high at 2,800
… the daily chart is short term overbought
The US$ index maintains the 5-month uptrend
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Section 2: Currencies
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… the monthly chart shows a cluster of resistance at 90-92
JPY (monthly) continues its rally towards the top of the range at
125
EUR (monthly) pulls back towards long term support at
1.20
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… the daily chart shows the 7-month downtrend is in place
AUD (monthly) falls further in the range towards support at
0.80
… the daily chart shows a new 12m low
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GBP (weekly) tests support at 1.5750, next support at 1.5250
… on the daily chart the downtrend is maintained
GBP/EUR trades a range 1.2450-1.2810
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GBP/EUR (monthly) shows resistance at 1.2850
GBP/AUD trades within the range
GBP/JPY consolidates at the highs
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The Asia Dollar (monthly) reaches the bottom of the
range at 113.50
… the daily chart shows no reaction yet
The US 5Y T-Note yield tests support at 1.50%
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Section 3: Benchmark Sovereign Bond Yields
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The US 10Y T-Note yield maintains the downtrend
… the weekly chart shows support at 1.85%
The US 30Y T-Note yield (weekly) maintains the
downtrend towards support from the October ‘flash crash’
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… the daily chart shows the downtrend
The UK 2Y Gilt yield finds support at the October low at
0.48%
The UK 10Y Gilt yield tests the low at 1.91%
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… the weekly chart shows medium term support at 1.65%
The UK 30Y Gilt yield (weekly) makes a new 3-year low
… the daily chart shows the downtrend and no support in
view…
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The 10Y Euro Bund yield makes a new low, with no support in
view…
The 10Y JGB yield makes a new low
The DJ-UBS Commodity TR Index reaches support at 226
drawn from the 2009 base formation
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Section 4: Commodities
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… the daily chart shows a gap down to a new low
WTI Crude (monthly) shows support at $60 and the big level
at $50
... the weekly chart shows a modicum of support at $65,
then $50
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CME Copper (weekly) breaks support at the bottom of the 5-
year range… next support at 270c
… the daily chart has broken support at the 2014 lows
Iron Ore (Chinese) shows no reaction
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Gold ($) (monthly) tests the 9-year uptrend
The DJ-UBS Agriculture TR index (weekly) has rallied from
5-year support
Soybeans (weekly) rally from support at the bottom of the
range
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Wheat (weekly) rallies to test resistance at prior lows
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