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@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate
University of Copenhagen
Macroecology of environmental
change response
PhD defense
Peter Søgaard Jørgensen
June 30 2014
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Biodiversity and environmental change through deep time
Rohde & Muller Nature 2005
Millions of years ago
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f g
en
era
Rohde & Muller 2005
- major mass extinctions
- minor -
image: wikipedia.org
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Early human influence on biodiversity
• ca. 1000 species of non-passerine landbirds go extinct in the pacific due to human colonization
Biodiversity and environmental change in recent time
http://www.transpacificproject.com/ http://abagond.wo
rdpress.com/2011/02/18/human-migrations/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_human_migrations
Duncan et al. 2013
http://kids.britannica.com/
images: wikipedia.org, britannica.com
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Steffen et al. 2004, 2011
The great acceleration of the human environmental footprint
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
How is anthropogenic climate change different from other environmental changes?
NASA, http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
How is anthropogenic climate change different from other environmental changes?
NASA, http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Large scale responses can most reliably be attributed to anthropogenic climate change
Parmesan et al. 2011
Spatial extent of study
Co
nfi
de
nce
in a
ttri
bu
tio
n
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Kerr et al. 2007
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Continental surveys of biodiversity - a rare chance to understand large-scale effects of climate change
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Aims of the thesis
• use a macroecological approach to investigate species temporal response to global environmental change
• focus on the effects of climate change on common breeding birds of Europe and North America
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Predicted responses to climate change
1. Collapsing population cycles 2. Increased synchrony between populations 3. Poleward shifts in occurrence 4. Poleward shifts in abundance 5. Change in community composition 6. Increasing species richness in temperate regions 7. Destabilization of populations and communities 8. Population or species extinctions
Effects on particular life-history strategies 9. Effects on early versus late breeding species 10. Effects on migratory species
Each of the examples below constitute climate change effects that may considered as hypothesis for the macroecological study of environmental change response at the population, community and species level. For each example a brief introduction to the argument of the hypothesis and the nature of existing evidence is provided. At the end of each hypothesis any contributions from the present thesis to the topic are outlined.
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Conceptual aims and contributions
• strengthen cross-scale inference of species level environmental change responses (Ch. 1,2)
• synthesize contributions from the ecological sciences that may help solve major societal challenges (Ch. 8)
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
The macroecology of environmental change response
1. Validate observations (Chapter 1,2)
2. Initial investigation (Ch. 3) (winners & losers)
3. Evaluate drivers (Ch. 3,4)
4. Establish generality (Ch. 4-8)
1: Validate observations (II) distinguishing naturally rare, from threatened species
across taxa (VII)
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
A host of methods with different spatial and temporal scales of application
Chapter 2 Chapter 1, fig. 3
FUTURE PAST
Ecology is a young field - new use of methods accelerated by a growing human footprint
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Case: Are the species we see today naturally rare or rare because of humans??
Hung et al. 2014 Photo cred: Allen Brooks, CLO; ibc.lynxeds.com | Case studies: Johnson et al. 2009; Chapter 2
fos.auckland.ac.nz
time present past time
po
pu
lati
on
siz
e
present past
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
When should genetic reconstruction be most accurate?
• Large declines more likely to decrease genetic diversity
• Genetic diversity changes with a lag
• Genetic reconstruction should be more accurate for large and less recent population declines
Palsbøll et al. 2013
Larger declines leave greater genetic fingerprint Declines that happened longer ago will have had more time to decrease genetic diversity
fos.auckland.ac.nz
Chapter 2, fig. 3&4
size of decline
gro
wth
rat
e d
ista
nce
generations since decline
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Can population genetics distinguish the naturally from the recent rare ?
• Yes, but scale matters
• Most reliable particularly when species have gone through large and less recent declines
Chapter 2
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
The macroecology of environmental change response
1. Validate observations
2. Initial investigation (winners & losers)
3. Evaluate drivers
4. Establish generality
1: Validate observations (II) distinguishing naturally rare, from threatened species
across taxa (VII)
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
How many are we in the room?
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
How many blackbirds are in the Kingdom of Denmark?
How could we find out?
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Just another breeding bird survey
(watermelon combo)
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
The macroecology of environmental change response
1. Validate observations
2. Initial investigation (winners & losers)
3. Evaluate drivers
4. Establish generality
1: Validate observations (II) distinguishing naturally rare, from threatened species
across taxa (VII)
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Population dynamics, temporal-scale and global change
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
the three patterns are not redundant
decline of long-distance migrants
Winners and losers in the global change response of European breeding birds
www.ebcc.info/pecmbs
decline of farmland specialists
poleward shifts in abundance
hot
cold
Gregory et al. 2009, PECBMS, Heldbjerg & Fox 2008 Chapter 3, fig 2
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
The macroecology of environmental change response
1. Validate observations
2. Initial investigation (winners & losers)
3. Evaluate drivers
4. Establish generality
1: Validate observations (II) distinguishing naturally rare, from threatened species
across taxa (VII)
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Testing drivers: Moving from indirect to direct assessment of causes of change
• How do we move from indirect to more direct inference of drivers of population change?
• Conditions that causes population fluctuations over the short-term are candidate drivers for long-term change
Chapter 3
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Chapter 3
What conditions cause population change among migratory strategies?
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Species richness is highest in the tropics
www.fao.org - 2014
Somveille et al. 2013
Chapter 4 Orme et al. 2005
number of species
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
www.fao.org - 2014
http://www.constantinealexander.net/2012/04/arctic-birds-migrate-earlier-under-climate-change.html
worldmigratorybirdday.org
Somveille et al. 2013
migrant proportion
Chapter 4
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
The seasonal impact of climate change may determine composition of future breeding bird communities
Winter
tmp
Spring
NDVI
Summer
tmp
Autumn
spe
cie
s ri
chn
ess
(w
ith
in g
rou
p)
residents short-distance migrants long-distance migrants
x TC x TC
Chapter 3, fig 1,4
Effe
ct o
n a
nn
ual
g
row
th r
ate
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Within region analysis
How does tropical climate change affect long-distance migrants?
logistic regression
Chapter 4, suppl. figs
breeding area
wintering area
How could we find out?
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Predictions from recent climate change
• Many parts of the tropics have seen increasing precipitation and vegetation greenness
Chapter 4
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Responses of tropical migrants to recent tropical climate change
Chapter 4, fig 1,2
peak resource length (months)
lag
ge
d
dir
ect
re
spo
nse
me
an r
esp
on
se
short-term response
reproduction
mortality
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Responses of tropical migrants to recent tropical climate change
Chapter 4, fig 1,2
latitude
lon
g-t
erm
gro
wth
rat
e
abu
nd
ance
-re
sou
rce
co
rre
lati
on
long-term patterns
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Responses of tropical migrants to recent tropical climate change
Chapter 4, fig 1,2
climate change migrants climate change migrants
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Can we use short-term fluctuations in population size to build expectations of climate change effects?
• Yes
• The combination of short- and long-term perspectives improve tests of current explanations and generation of future predictions
Chapter 3 & 4
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
The macroecology of environmental change
1. Validate observations
2. Initial causal investigation
3. Evaluate hypothesized drivers
4. Establish generality
1: Validate observations (II) distinguishing naturally rare, from threatened species
across taxa (VII)
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
The macroecology of environmental change response
1: Validate observations (II) distinguishing naturally rare, from threatened species
across taxa (VII)
What is the potential for climate change to destabilize breeding bird populations?
Is there a general effect across Europe and North America?
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Time series stability
Count(t) ~ Count(t-1) + Count(t-2)
stable
unstable
Chapter 5
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Population stability decreases with mean temperature in 3 of 4 regions
Is stability related to climate?
Chapter 5, fig 1,3
-0.5
mean temperature
(+/- SD)
edginess unstable
stable
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Is climate change already destabilizing breeding bird time series?
Chapter 6, fig 1
me
an
auto
corr
ela
tio
n
coe
ffic
ien
t
of
vari
atio
n
North America Europe
Indicators of decreasing stability
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Breeding bird time series are slowing down in Europe and North America
Chapter 6, fig 2
slowing
down
speeding
up
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
What is the potential for climate change to destabilize breeding bird populations?
• Populations in warmer areas might be least resistant to climate change (3/4 regions)
• Population dynamics are slowing down as predicted from systems theory and climate change (both continents)
• Predictions for how other types of organisms will be affected by anthropogenic climate change?
Chapter 5 & 6
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
1: Validate observations (II) distinguishing naturally rare, from threatened species
across taxa (VII)
1. Validate observations
2. Initial investigation
(winners and losers)
3. Evaluate drivers
4. Establish generality
The macroecology of environmental change response
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Can macroecology help provide solutions to global societal challenges? 1: Validate observations (II)
distinguishing naturally rare, from threatened species
across taxa (VII)
The macroecology of environmental change response
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
log(generation time)
log
(po
pu
lati
on
siz
e)
Conservation Biology:
CONTEMPORARY EVOLUTION
Crops Livestock
Medicine: Human
epithelia Medicine:
Human bone marrow
All: Viral &
microbial pathogens, mutualists,
commensals
Agriculture & Natural resources:
Multicellular
pests, weeds, invasive species
Medicine: Human neurons
Medicine: Human fat cells
Annual organisms
Trees
All:
Pollinators
Medicine: Humans
PHENOTYPE-ENVIRONMENT
MISMATCH
Chapter 8, fig1
Life history variation (of life)
pending final decision at Science
Antibiotics crisis & pesticide resistance
Emerging infectious disease
Sixth mass extinction?
Chronic life-style disease
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
?
Macroecology & the Post 2015 agenda?
• Goal 1: Thriving lives and livelihoods
• Goal 2: Sustainable food security
• Goal 3: Secure sustainable water
• Goal 4: Universal clean energy
• Goal 5: Healthy and productive ecosystems
• Goal 6: Governance for sustainable societies
Griggs et al. 2013 Chapter 8
?
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Macroecology & the Post 2015 agenda?
• Goal 1: Thriving lives and livelihoods
• Goal 2: Sustainable food security
• Goal 3: Secure sustainable water
• Goal 4: Universal clean energy
• Goal 5: Healthy and productive ecosystems
• Goal 6: Governance for sustainable societies
Griggs et al. 2013 Chapter 8
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Thank you! PECBMS Thanks for help, advice and support, special thanks to the data providers &
organisations responsible for national data collection and analysis:
Norbert Teufelbauer, Michael Dvorak, Christian Vansteenwegen, Anne Weiserbs, Jean-Paul Jacob, Anny Anselin, Svetoslav Spasov, Derek Pomeroy, Martin
Heldbjerg, Michael Grell, Andres Kuresoo, Jaanus Elts, Frederic Jiguet, Risto Väisänen, Martin Flade, Johannes Schwarz, Alexander Mitschke,Theodoros Kominos, Antonia Galanaki, Tibor Szép, Károly Nagy, Olivia Crowe, Dick Coombes, Lorenzo Fornasari, Elisabetta de Carli,
Foppen, Magne Husby, Przemek Chylarecki, Geoff Hilton, Ricardo Martins, Zoltan Szabo, Alexander
Escandell, Ramón Martí, Sergi Herrando, Lluis Brotons, Åke Lindström, Sören Svensson, Hans Schmid, David Noble. Adriaan Gmelig Meyling. Ian Burfield, Juha Tiainen, Romain Julliard, Ward Hagemeijer,Norbert Schäffer, Nicola Crockford, Zoltan Waliczky, David Gibbons, Simon Wotton, Adrian Oates, Gregoire Loïs, Dominique Richard, Anne Teller, Jeremy Greenwood, Sylvia Barova, Jose Tavares, Uygar Ozesmi, Maris
Vermouzek.
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Eric Post Carsten Rahbek Scott Carroll Kasper Thorup
supervision & collaboration
Philip Francis Eline Lorenzen Anders Tøttrup
help on projects
Mirnesa Rizvanovic Sonal Singhal Ben Blonder Jonas Geldmann Katie Marske Miguel Araujo
a
Katherine Richardson
Georgina Mace
career advice, inspiration & support
Steven Wilson Paul Ehrlich Hal Mooney Alan Covich
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
@PSJorgensen @Macroecology
Thank you!
Human influence on biodiversity and the earth system
Environment in ecology from controversy to attribution