Macroeconomic Coordination in Latin America: Some Lessons from the Mercosur Experience

Macroeconomic Coordination in Latin America: Some Lessons from the Mercosur Experience

Jos Luis Machinea and Guillermo RozenwurcelECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEANSeminar on Regional Financial ArrangementsNew York, July 14th 2004

Main topicsIncentives for coordinationCosts and difficulties of coordinationVolatility of real exchange ratesMonetary UnionMacroeconomic coordinationThe European experienceThe Latin American experienceConclusions

Incentives for coordinationInterdependence (trade and financial)Political support for a deeper integrationDiscipline under domestic pressureImprovement of credibility (buy reputation)Elimination of distortions and reduction of fiscal costsReduction of volatility in the block

Trade interdependencea) Intra-regional exports as percentage of total exports

Chart1

9.95264080274.2497381352

11.411.8

20.86486289417.8246294357

20.77872767978.2490840405

46.896082993235.5958203957

65.084707458661.8238976188

2000

1989

percentage of total trade

CUADRO I

Volatilidad Macroeconmica

AcuerdosDesviacin Estndar 2)

de IntegracinInflacin

RegionalAnual 1)Inflacin (Trimestral)Crecimiento del PBI (Anual)Tipo de Cambio Real Multilateral

1991-2001Total*1991-2001Total*1991-1999Total**1991-1999Total**

CAN32.2290.053.0616.841.841.671.657.85

31.51142.514.9330.042.653.065.4014.90

CARICOM11.668.841.531.290.711.782.282.33

13.899.013.062.933.065.153.784.77

MCCA37.42 (398.604.265.501.291.722.083.72

78.36215.1715.4423.132.214.406.7515.29

MERCOSUR393.66 (4367.6040.9446.581.552.564.265.32

155.57196.9217.9231.643.364.843.857.81

ASEAN7.508.442.221.862.232.114.413.43

11.2011.292.973.373.654.165.507.51

UE2.695.470.330.900.901.341.050.86

3.196.330.651.381.752.252.372.25

Notas:

1) en rojo est medido el promedio ponderado por PBI de la tasa de inflacin anual de cada pas, y en azul el promedio simple.

2) en rojo est medida la volatilidad del promedio de las tasas de variacin en valor absoluto, ponderado por PBI, y en azul el promedio simple de las volatilidades de cada pas.

3) Si se exluye 1991 (alta inflacin en Nicaragua) la inflacin promedio se reduce a 12.03%

4) A partir de 1995 la inflacin promedio del MERCOSUR se reduj a solo un 11,49%.

*Perodo 1971-2001

**Perodo 1971-1999

***Perodo 1980-2001

Fuente: Clculos propios sobre datos de IFS/IMF (2001) y WDI (2001)

GRAFICO 1

20001989SADCECOWASCANMCCAASEANMERCOSURNAFTAEU

CAN104

MCCA1112

ASEAN2118

MERCOSUR218

NAFTA4736

UE6562

MERCOSURCANMCCANAFTAASEANEU

19982.563.616.657.2113.1518.62

19890.821.244.543.749.2617.51

GRAFICO 1

00

00

00

00

00

00

a) Exportaciones Intraregionales como porcentaje del comercio total

2000

1989

porcentaje del comercio total

trade

00

00

00

00

00

00

b) Exportaciones Intraregionales como porcentaje del PBI regional

Fuente: Clculos propios en base a DOTS (2001) y WDI (2001)

1998

1989

porcentaje del PBI regional

MERCOSUR

19891998

BRAZIL0.040.17

ARGENTINA0.150.35

PARAGUAY0.340.54

URUGUAY0.330.55

URUGUAYPARAGUAYARGENTINABRAZIL

19890.330.340.150.04

19980.550.540.350.17

Grafico3

Op, Coeff.1989199019911992199319941995199619971998

Argentina9.827.506.887.378.149.089.8810.7611.6411.67

Brazil6.627.588.309.639.809.348.618.158.878.76

Paraguay33.8736.3734.1933.3342.4043.5243.0236.9335.3136.68

Uruguay20.6020.8119.2820.0419.3420.0719.0519.8220.5420.12

IR Trade/ Total Trade

Argentina0.150.150.170.190.280.290.320.330.350.35

Brazil0.040.040.070.110.140.140.130.150.180.17

Paraguay0.340.360.330.350.370.520.570.630.540.54

Uruguay0.330.340.350.340.420.470.470.480.500.55

(Op, Coeff.)*(IR Trade/ Total Trade)WEIGHTS

Argentina0.271.471.111.141.402.292.663.173.524.134.11

Brazil0.700.280.320.611.061.361.271.141.251.571.52

Paraguay0.0111.6312.9811.2111.6015.8522.6324.7123.3418.9019.81

Uruguay0.026.717.166.776.738.059.438.949.5310.2011.13

0.81911839650.77402985270.95942562961.35669122511.8670843331.98564110112.03816325192.2133340922.57572412942.5595803303

y as %

ECOWASCARICOMCANMERCOSURASEANSADCMCCANAFTAECOWASCARICOMCANMCCAMERCOSURSADCASEANNAFTA

sav23.1220.2420.1618.2916.4215.7314.378.879744828716.99515.07014.90513.51612.27711.4109.5825.3424588279

y as %

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P

Precios de Exportacin

Trminos del Intercambio

Nota: La volatilidad regional es el promedio simple de las desviaciones estndar de cada pais miembro. *Debido a problemas de informacin se incluyeron solo cuatro pases para el CARICOM: Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica y Trinidad y Tobago, que representan el 63% del PBI regional.Fuente: clculos propios en base a WDI (2001)

Volatilidad

Grfico 3: Volatilidad de los Precios de Exportacin y de los Trminos del Intercambio, 1971-2000

BOX I Cuadro

Private Capital Flows as Percentage of GDP, 1970-1999

Year1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99

Austria0.310.390.580.780.621.871.442.184.915.022.412.474.544.841.770.350.830.330.410.441.811.151.982.023.342.441.433.662.202.221.95Austria

Belgium0.300.660.650.250.180.160.690.201.241.271.261.272.111.402.101.371.843.311.952.946.4820.788.2711.375.3310.978.0018.2312.8511.374.39Belgium

Denmark0.350.040.350.780.391.421.260.561.380.721.321.570.931.121.772.771.832.091.472.731.660.344.284.271.152.957.892.978.543.782.03Denmark

France0.020.040.110.460.200.420.100.630.440.040.391.340.330.370.460.190.610.611.850.790.420.360.320.710.421.041.873.042.411.180.69France

Germany0.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.690.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.690.670.690.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.691.091.07Germany

Greece11.2311.5514.7021.2417.821.361.311.092.072.392.612.032.012.223.311.761.221.972.543.463.052.493.905.992.697.190.186.704.294.064.98Greece

Ireland0.730.510.762.330.421.431.612.445.845.766.744.782.962.521.651.960.200.211.014.792.910.872.023.060.290.194.764.461.532.232.37Ireland

Italy0.270.320.441.210.100.400.320.800.731.291.180.080.250.050.350.320.521.151.652.410.950.844.333.253.446.175.808.5010.064.821.97Italy

Netherlands0.000.370.720.650.470.790.040.870.671.171.320.891.562.360.860.450.400.292.261.271.271.822.802.514.480.822.772.224.652.591.40Netherlands

Portugal0.560.630.570.080.480.280.230.000.240.293.253.650.100.560.661.161.042.014.863.274.980.862.800.859.425.728.8410.835.195.502.53Portugal

Spain0.110.020.011.020.921.260.690.270.161.291.251.130.580.480.480.810.010.732.183.290.8412.295.832.954.115.423.915.115.255.082.15Spain

Sweden0.190.280.700.460.200.901.200.141.272.301.531.810.420.270.620.280.060.321.462.932.063.654.342.072.004.211.941.121.142.501.38Sweden

United Kingdom0.410.090.321.060.480.180.050.350.020.921.690.900.600.190.330.360.953.093.733.351.930.660.471.430.100.691.840.401.901.050.98United Kingdom

3.652.15

menossur3.401.76

Private Capital Flows as a percentage of GDP

Country1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99

Argentina0.400.030.100.010.060.610.781.362.444.620.871.080.640.610.900.450.321.751.760.710.474.377.492.080.290.393.123.482.732.711.51Argentina

Brazil0.761.181.171.651.512.001.342.451.251.762.402.150.850.250.200.070.860.190.151.340.312.242.031.484.344.823.303.741.982.691.65Brazil

Paraguay0.430.420.871.890.981.021.131.752.272.702.430.291.170.130.330.350.761.200.700.130.460.040.401.161.271.231.010.780.450.760.96Paraguay

Uruguay2.760.881.571.860.891.842.676.119.6412.907.521.083.260.250.682.531.410.032.622.4210.231.565.225.972.350.574.072.983.974.103.44Uruguay

2.571.89

PKF/GDPaverage

Country1971A11972A11973A11974A11975A11976A11977A11978A11979A11980A11981A11982A11983A11984A11985A11986A11987A11988A11989A11990A11991A11992A11993A11994A11995A11996A11997A11998A11999A191-9971-99

Bolivia0.950.140.780.671.892.002.133.561.666.052.378.0714.960.5512.0310.2315.620.966.694.624.082.054.451.013.176.7011.0613.008.496.005.17

Colombia0.920.500.300.970.240.210.580.060.861.293.243.381.691.101.250.680.280.860.310.120.840.633.331.645.375.486.083.412.363.241.65

Ecuador3.701.811.321.181.371.204.455.354.667.023.013.9816.778.967.187.043.393.741.202.343.365.5611.092.990.264.216.686.6911.435.814.89

Peru0.190.091.022.571.950.540.201.852.180.890.752.741.751.621.552.412.183.573.123.481.444.292.3710.337.397.994.253.030.494.622.63

Venezuela, RB1.120.580.461.680.010.162.895.155.230.293.063.215.854.203.602.170.912.866.0811.765.772.762.319.9410.226.175.082.472.115.203.73

4.973.62

LucioC:la p serie de Alemania se repite la de los 90 para las otras dcadas

Sheet3

Box 1: Dependencia e Interdependencia

La Interdependencia entre el socio ms grande y el resto del bloque (1)

Socio principal*

por acuerdo

de integracin198919901991199219931994199619971998

ASEAN

INDONESIA6.636.306.328.189.1210.438.918.1310.75

MCCA

GUATEMALA3.604.334.544.585.784.704.123.542.43

MERCOSUR

BRASIL0.270.280.510.760.640.580.530.570.58

NAFTA

Estados Unidos0.310.380.370.370.370.390.370.380.39

ECOWAS

NIGERIA6.634.906.312.522.731.983.213.263.60

SADC

SUDAFRICA0.02.32

CAN

COLOMBIA2.492.715.274.522.931.893.893.813.19

UNION EUROPEA

ALEMANIA4.030.930.930.950.900.910.900.903.92

*En trminos de porcentaje del PBI regional

(1) La interdependencia esta estimada como las exportaciones del pais ms grande al conjunto

del AIR relativas a sus exportaciones totales y con respecto

a las exportaciones de los otros paises miembros al pas mas grande.

Fuente: clculos propios en base a DOTS (2001)

19981989

NAFTA (EE.UU)0.390.31

MERCOSUR (Brasil)0.580.27

SADC (Sudfrica)2.32n.a.

MCCA (Guatemala)2.433.60

CAN (Colombia)3.192.49

ECOWAS (Nigeria)3.606.63

UNION EUROPEA (Alemania)3.924.03

ASEAN (Indonesia)10.756.63

LucioC:data only available for 1998

Sheet3

00

00

00

00

00

00

1998

1989

porcentaje

El grado de interdependencia (en porcentaje)

Trade interdependencea) Intra-regional exports as percentage of regional GDPSource: own calculations based on DOTS (2001) and WDI (2001).

Chart4

2.55958033030.8191183965

3.60908008631.2403281029

6.65031852114.5357660874

7.20963243353.7356560981

13.15213460149.2556387617

18.615767880817.5095735737

1998

1989

% of regional GDP

GRAFICO 1


CAN104

CACM1112

ASEAN2118

MERCOSUR218

NAFTA4736

EU6562

MERCOSURACCACMNAFTAASEANEU

19982.563.616.657.2113.1518.62

19890.821.244.543.749.2617.51

GRAFICO 1

00

00

00

00

00

00

a) Intraregional Trade as a % of Total Exports

2000

1989

% of total trade

trade

00

00

00

00

00

00

b) Intraregional Exports as a % of regional GDP

Source: own calculations based on DOTS (2001) and WDI (2001)

1998

1989

% of Regional GDP

MERCOSUR

19891998

BRAZIL4.1917.35

ARGENTINA14.9435.24

PARAGUAY34.3354.01

URUGUAY32.6055.32


19890.330.340.150.04

19980.550.540.350.17

MERCOSUR

00

00

00

00

a) Como % del Comercio total

1989

1998

Grafico3

Op, Coeff.19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Argentina9.827.506.887.378.149.089.8810.7611.6411.679.84

Brazil6.627.588.309.639.809.348.618.158.878.7610.6

Paraguay33.8736.3734.1933.3342.4043.5243.0236.9335.3136.6822.98

Uruguay20.6020.8119.2820.0419.3420.0719.0519.8220.5420.1217.99


Argentina0.150.150.170.190.280.290.320.330.350.35

Brazil0.040.040.070.110.140.140.130.150.180.17

Paraguay0.340.360.330.350.370.520.570.630.540.54

Uruguay0.330.340.350.340.420.470.470.480.500.55


Argentina0.271.471.111.141.402.292.663.173.524.134.11

Brazil0.700.280.320.611.061.361.271.141.251.571.52

Paraguay0.0111.6312.9811.2111.6015.8522.6324.7123.3418.9019.81

Uruguay0.026.717.166.776.738.059.438.949.5310.2011.13

0.81911839650.77402985270.95942562961.35669122511.8670843331.98564110112.03816325192.2133340922.57572412942.5595803303

19891998

BRASIL0.281.52

ARGENTINA1.474.11

URUGUAY6.7111.13

PARAGUAY11.6315.00

Grafico3

00

00

00

00

1989

1998

b) como porcentaje del PBI

K-Y corr


sav23.1220.2420.1618.2916.4215.7314.378.879744828716.99515.07014.90513.51612.27711.4109.5825.3424588279

K-Y corr

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P




Volatilidad


y as %

YearAustriaBelgiumDenmarkFranceGermanyGreeceIrelandItalyNetherlandsPortugalSpainSwedenUnited Kingdom

19710.3083271997-0.30133395010.3500516256-0.01629607660.818509682611.23427372560.7313232629-0.271601291800.5565811647-0.1074124418-0.1890115797-0.4113456616

19720.3943790934-0.66311157350.04167457940.03622121492.593662223711.54651212820.5069722995-0.3239967475-0.37431800970.62780490960.0181928697-0.2828774351-0.0866686021

19730.5750476729-0.64963274530.3489965864-0.10936758720.753287407614.70156156180.76249414590.4399545684-0.71750289120.5675479688-0.0082579895-0.70467510740.316473245

19740.7797238384-0.24564459010.77998621580.462215961.383264447921.24178436752.33362436761.2136240828-0.65309916030.08120243961.0203108627-0.45557024261.0618576664

19750.61572000790.17905050350.3913228748-0.20231667922.019301969617.81803469330.41884722270.1015170491-0.4673641682-0.48442444920.92084445170.19903191770.476530258

1976-1.8672642530.15817383361.42019617720.41730808480.53763829941.36274503671.43032551940.3991035385-0.7891311550.27592895211.25849465380.90316600840.1750484015

1977-1.43731076470.6919254931.26324579420.10227066810.3927255741.30748107191.606806212-0.32112389230.03588695440.23335337890.68827012311.2027831533-0.0470549684

1978-2.18401109370.2034672830.5590874031-0.63436550350.6664074091.08748389822.444915872-0.79583567950.87419816640.0002718853-0.26797746950.1416704236-0.3464261099

1979-4.90769283911.23929415041.376064919-0.44182345280.68654181612.06658687425.8436783474-0.73310228130.6650624172-0.2408366315-0.1574697541.2706081069-0.0228847318

1980-5.01634873211.27330399940.7202209553-0.03929760560.81850968262.39231826075.76477601951.28923295791.167544611-0.28689939441.29167519642.2974327061-0.9228916214

1981-2.41165672111.26218518081.32312549870.39281816962.59366222372.6120731516.73553895311.1763527966-1.31533797243.24837470691.24773200211.5270085935-1.6856177974

1982-2.47471110711.27440876011.5650469351.34343881450.75328740762.02577081394.77951569430.0846986736-0.89386018673.64648663751.13051465881.8096513055-0.8963678026

1983-4.54337794372.10533848260.92883796160.32537135111.38326444792.00792081822.95579560090.2504621642-1.557606380.09502857020.57745964290.4213580952-0.6014234124

1984-4.84324839641.39572859941.12374411730.3668010652.01930196962.21894672452.52015242550.049315299-2.36115759670.5560036331-0.4833823226-0.269804888-0.1895168

1985-1.77426518122.09815943381.76685303390.45734610020.53763829943.30905522791.6483523664-0.3493072209-0.86400535060.6562546927-0.47577971680.6222372685-0.3262989591

1986-0.35193344761.3686210552.77456755870.19328420620.3927255741.76158332311.9621621155-0.3232706378-0.4525153853-1.1554261437-0.8118963085-0.28309422680.3635715734

19870.83104071731.83942564361.8334469770.6061527420.6664074091.21759272880.20388647920.5225557597-0.39765196411.03594834290.00778395040.05606582070.9503311882

1988-0.32721765293.3063376522.09346900860.61077589250.68654181611.9743950129-0.20535136221.1467084436-0.28560963842.01028406240.73240697920.32324527723.0851790883

19890.40680954181.9549971233-1.4669758581.85331828040.6664074092.53931425631.01278909721.6460863337-2.25805330844.86439155672.18406327131.46006351083.7253970409

1990-0.44245204052.93677357272.73470300840.79034559560.68654181613.46281296024.78749267272.4132931432-1.26785174553.26852051283.29036031972.93299301753.3461800042

1991-1.80870477166.4839783994-1.66345719380.42490757010.81850968263.05345557882.91369548510.9529149748-1.26700618834.9818126084-0.83911282782.0632828421.9274487257

19921.15147110620.78257168960.3429872529-0.36306373322.59366222372.49373233050.8705880118-0.8407650029-1.8174943408-0.858530315412.29413817073.6525478115-0.6558182259

19931.97711830388.2710589117-4.2763858557-0.31912131280.75328740763.89991662682.0216294151-4.3345954479-2.8010737792-2.80351536465.83078695914.3426817154-0.4744416138

19942.017165040211.3652220228-4.2749831745-0.71275850011.38326444795.99114737023.06435793-3.2524904351-2.50796159080.85444450352.9457323812.0701571432-1.4272590652

19953.33549584575.33238498651.1461295638-0.41603336472.01930196962.6895988568-0.2874677404-3.4419170104-4.4776893249.42392489864.1089036665-1.99612669980.0952621867

19962.437613349110.96778246462.9471398337-1.03980275410.53763829947.1947946184-0.1855970961-6.1678770654-0.82163871965.7234596686-5.4165793711-4.2074829372-0.6875451953

19971.42529517478.00379105117.8851247051-1.87200793270.3927255740.18456766814.7625779515-5.800253069-2.77390841198.8411005042-3.9142125059-1.9362158786-1.8436459765

19983.664805480918.2333900239-2.9693205267-3.03686477220.6664074096.69503744014.4638938486-8.4966139274-2.2242919610.82509487275.1096205951.1152973074-0.3953245398

19992.195515568312.85280371328.5447663782-2.41469364780.68654181614.2939539628-1.5340188708-10.0645963922-4.64567437445.18736839365.2522343826-1.13922236811.9042821201

yearArgentinaBrazilParaguayUruguay

1971-0.400.760.432.76

19720.031.180.42-0.88

19730.101.170.87-1.57

1974-0.011.651.891.86

1975-0.061.510.980.89

1976-0.612.001.021.84

19770.781.341.132.67

19781.362.451.756.11

19792.441.252.279.64

19804.621.762.7012.90

19810.872.402.437.52

19821.082.150.29-1.08

1983-0.640.851.173.26

19840.610.25-0.13-0.25

19850.90-0.20-0.330.68

19860.450.07-0.352.53

19870.320.86-0.761.41

19881.75-0.19-1.20-0.03

1989-1.76-0.150.70-2.62

1990-0.711.340.13-2.42

19910.470.310.46-10.23

19924.372.240.041.56

19937.492.030.405.22

19942.081.481.165.97

19950.294.341.272.35

19960.394.821.23-0.57

19973.123.301.014.07

19983.483.740.782.98

19992.731.980.453.97

yearBoliviaColombiaEcuadorPeruVenezuela, RB

19710.950.923.70-0.191.12

1972-0.140.501.810.09-0.58

19730.780.301.321.020.46

19740.670.971.182.57-1.68

19751.890.241.371.950.01

19762.000.211.200.540.16

19772.130.584.45-0.202.89

19783.56-0.065.35-1.855.15

19791.660.864.66-2.185.23

1980-6.051.297.02-0.890.29

1981-2.373.243.010.75-3.06

1982-8.073.383.982.74-3.21

1983-14.961.6916.771.75-5.85

1984-0.551.108.961.62-4.20

1985-12.031.257.181.55-3.60

1986-10.23-0.687.042.41-2.17

1987-15.62-0.28-3.392.180.91

1988-0.960.863.743.57-2.86

19896.690.311.203.12-6.08

1990-4.620.122.343.48-11.76

19914.08-0.843.361.44-5.77

19922.050.635.564.29-2.76

19934.453.3311.092.37-2.31

19941.011.642.9910.33-9.94

19953.175.370.267.39-10.22

19966.705.484.217.99-6.17

199711.066.086.684.25-5.08

199813.003.416.693.03-2.47

19998.49-2.36-11.43-0.49-2.11

YEARCosta RicaEl SalvadorGuatemalaHondurasNicaragua

19712.05577253190.41900607610.78307597460.77239301361.4647225975

19720.5789292925-0.02818342510.57537451170.29729838460.01321785

19731.4082762170.15815443280.86146792121.87708237384.8523081358

19742.98865943822.06487372881.23195543153.53762739427.986164487

19751.94336984591.37376463221.62095788472.12359559665.9893805877

19762.44458403760.78330012241.1699625163.9140932475-1.5299261326

19772.9020006441.61753662821.54933953551.63604740252.5067893322

19783.8915152484.47470372473.23491051451.610706916-6.4669501353

19793.6066099974-0.11313869441.52717796414.4581091259-21.0541105947

19804.87198307733.82434593422.49726857970.0152789107-12.080152131

19810.03376952172.12278660711.61362225421.258842461312.4729997891

1982-3.7738601668-1.89868544821.18064094680.3448880895-1.2365951745

1983-1.9705463509-1.05115037590.7276607335-3.1618647815-25.6223970865

1984-4.9078574951-2.15788637312.03224576951.2922930937-14.5110110259

1985-2.5102868026-1.67825331491.31714432321.491631184-11.6255998984

1986-2.1875001432-1.3176908620.85645023770.9966628844-42.3102675783

1987-5.59732831950.44110903383.89976597085.5895813964-38.9290987207

1988-0.94454448820.42092616932.20719472581.1497735375-9.6203248671

19890.10426592281.1480052832.6101665282-7.1293461852-31.3238639766

19903.18369139270.36505661152.48296206231.381801349-33.7350802235

19910.87774335241.7383251564.9042212196-2.5843997308-63.7720619193

19921.1255308756-1.32236679495.3336948115-0.3003572496-78.5754955766

19932.907037491-0.45368199867.0046187288-6.0207319851-53.3846297707

1994-0.87488403240.23871869577.69781614292.79106395841.2340482074

19952.74674612110.61046211263.15570440258.77525250865.3065542439

19965.61134813140.61678583314.55115439146.36208573296.1553988797

19974.57358352152.2277376034.31332888467.13059705449.6063377632

19985.15163061386.65245210717.71269561247.3884638299.6263840803

YEARBAHAMAS, THEBARBADOSBELIZEDOMINICAGRENADAGUYANAHAITIJAMAICAST. KITTS AND NEVISST. LUCIAST. VINCENT & GRENS.SURINAMETRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

19710.54161639421.8416299245.42941948779.1777656620.22935216264.45916393182.54886355795.5858128837

19720.00000023491.53348445673.94735936910.68261381960.55739151132.4825582864.91744459574.8673897884

19730.74379849452.55364329456.25211691472.58165475890.116749171.35969952349.57142916522.1815533334

19742.35936938370.39887891351.96948379740.33143784510.24911877490.97332166161.5517934592.5518561418

19752.37484827670.52532327227.33161854110.5256695931.11963219452.382531368342.68753314538.3162945157

19761.92562526690.99772789491.63463959543.84671943760.91282992640.597248161723.93997259670.333296766

19770.91611466630.92225345633.84654658396.8582895674.85376158531.498681950.25614274680.21641797130.366232312613.58458439166.51465779678.4932945123

19780.89231534841.4519452513.39472627580.46562218312.39222163772.24719142410.32125442811.68156592681.16491985341.56827259664.65473517126.7791577995

19791.64285558241.9176255563.6437623150.47443241751.99179442960.22875716410.99861414730.72844349651.98432825374.43755978220.146142426811.7795854112

19800.5755595281.82626221472.53896259190.37571167450.1542343520.25682245820.66667635561.95549141143.853125423312.76172149427.33349517591.19816834383.6529444535

19815.89359777587.44783363852.26578227360.4267224290.57674717541.66139142772.83748363920.59976193833.826966539413.75389124141.932373934614.12173412474.4663466684

19823.27243458980.23862874371.43333334430.24553882114.21472333220.47358973730.17877468931.25647785534.617697179913.45854426392.5627349799.55455876321.619511427

19830.77784411980.76673728151.28625616710.74653495860.5148816890.72474471640.74533133560.15352199321.17857991562.89883118622.99999998353.28293848747.9456854889

19840.98471831310.69569798540.39333757141.62782172620.33977253640.00000156980.13633555860.67433525830.56916865244.97725791872.26579357279.97676175841.5979968296

19850.47711785370.89751581133.66756466611.59364779163.98473738420.00000153590.14212579260.92276723590.79663684564.53289162132.57116511959.88979313371.9142127861

19861.16714287223.23865319171.95583594490.84165721493.29716382890.00000232131.28684443710.27583878593.87151844732.95454556654.22359115742.87292711631.1331524835

19870.37472863566.49716464891.15496497490.51547674684.61135335390.74446449520.1657875691.86675544945.4749668984.84764412830.42553178290.41195647160.5538258317

19882.51157342473.23637251740.49356547180.25748952551.16143352571.29436288260.11985747440.49527862127.12537247272.13681638272.83334149754.93126327542.6169214319

19892.26923873240.58635372622.252874181312.33745223729.99958358212.24175788710.96782911332.985511127223.481362538612.96875119698.552368642162.77779838875.1448975266

19901.22368738481.72982575761.47691776131.24926947975.44937499665.37414949340.33538485425.113463636415.199488457613.41527634344.43757999566.66666571536.3987513523

19911.95178944771.78138956262.244773747.41452121646.3123594345.21482875523.18867358233.777181271516.416674976314.34426311951.251166231315.65225626593.2913826979

19920.4694692127.78149314620.119178848.82675619421.557628865319.36827214211.67212768925.66121445887.929293295814.367816841314.91648374434.43965599461.1146489954

19930.13249233884.95932212155.38188357518.81984179967.251988746915.2146592353.16831464665.494638365911.849629934413.457944564515.78663165814.75555911180.6767683485

19942.26426427140.72397834565.828976149312.47926161518.754684718513.68243382310.71267892131.64849471392.27275169597.937385521616.23975987712.86363987761.8785384556

19953.13912969322.54518366531.942567495217.22368378226.416635957712.21865983960.28728394785.84897468123.63636312795.579322767212.77385173532.97777571520.9119912364

19963.72954653763.79239963760.36912254321.55948767718.78715941591.7663221970.15145918654.52265244422.19512427560.384395756115.57974899785.84313813821.5853529123

199713.19597551860.28255633834.6542395911.187594145713.95653377997.92134853680.18214937513.868198743.43511533970.13613599317.95932594315.484277815415.9929896632

199813.15353839161.81691733990.88333314911.47541475311.79535139537.41428611410.9451275470.434172218425.7358527770.63761554421.591229216416.232877679414.866991919

19997.18769621523.4798997186.884193973911.47963374891.77474338714.41541151340.872614189212.135655317422.51282681340.427913417511.293577484715.9515573244.8158598597

BOX I Cuadro


Year1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99

Austria0.310.390.580.780.62-1.87-1.44-2.18-4.91-5.02-2.41-2.47-4.54-4.84-1.77-0.350.83-0.330.41-0.44-1.811.151.982.023.342.441.433.662.201.82-0.42Austria

Belgium-0.30-0.66-0.65-0.250.180.160.690.201.241.271.261.272.111.402.101.371.843.311.952.946.4820.788.2711.375.3310.978.0018.2312.8511.374.27Belgium

Denmark0.350.040.350.780.391.421.260.561.380.721.321.570.931.121.772.771.832.09-1.472.73-1.660.34-4.28-4.271.152.957.89-2.978.540.851.02Denmark

France-0.020.04-0.110.46-0.200.420.10-0.63-0.44-0.040.391.340.330.370.460.190.610.611.850.790.42-0.36-0.32-0.71-0.42-1.04-1.87-3.04-2.41-1.08-0.11France

Germany0.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.690.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.690.670.690.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.691.091.07Germany

Greece11.2311.5514.7021.2417.821.361.311.092.072.392.612.032.012.223.311.761.221.972.543.463.052.493.905.992.697.190.186.704.294.064.98Greece

Ireland0.730.510.762.330.421.431.612.445.845.766.744.782.962.521.651.960.20-0.211.014.792.910.872.023.06-0.29-0.194.764.46-1.531.792.22Ireland

Italy-0.27-0.320.441.210.100.40-0.32-0.80-0.731.291.180.080.250.05-0.35-0.320.521.151.652.410.95-0.84-4.33-3.25-3.44-6.17-5.80-8.50-10.06-4.61-1.17Italy

Netherlands0.00-0.37-0.72-0.65-0.47-0.790.040.870.671.17-1.32-0.89-1.56-2.36-0.86-0.45-0.40-0.29-2.26-1.27-1.27-1.82-2.80-2.51-4.48-0.82-2.77-2.22-4.65-2.59-1.22Netherlands

Portugal0.560.630.570.08-0.480.280.230.00-0.24-0.293.253.650.100.560.66-1.161.042.014.863.274.98-0.86-2.800.859.425.728.8410.835.194.692.13Portugal

Spain-0.110.02-0.011.020.921.260.69-0.27-0.161.291.251.130.58-0.48-0.48-0.810.010.732.183.29-0.8412.295.832.954.11-5.42-3.915.115.252.821.29Spain

Sweden-0.19-0.28-0.70-0.460.200.901.200.141.272.301.531.810.42-0.270.62-0.280.060.321.462.932.063.654.342.07-2.00-4.21-1.941.12-1.140.440.58Sweden

United Kingdom-0.41-0.090.321.060.480.18-0.05-0.35-0.02-0.92-1.69-0.90-0.60-0.19-0.330.360.953.093.733.351.93-0.66-0.47-1.430.10-0.69-1.84-0.401.90-0.170.22United Kingdom

1.571.14promedio simple

3.652.15promedio absoluto

menos sur3.401.76promedio absoluto


Country1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99

Argentina-0.400.030.10-0.01-0.06-0.610.781.362.444.620.871.08-0.640.610.900.450.321.75-1.76-0.710.474.377.492.080.290.393.123.482.732.711.23Argentina

Brazil0.761.181.171.651.512.001.342.451.251.762.402.150.850.25-0.200.070.86-0.19-0.151.340.312.242.031.484.344.823.303.741.982.691.61Brazil

Paraguay0.430.420.871.890.981.021.131.752.272.702.430.291.17-0.13-0.33-0.35-0.76-1.200.700.130.460.040.401.161.271.231.010.780.450.760.77Paraguay

Uruguay2.76-0.88-1.571.860.891.842.676.119.6412.907.52-1.083.26-0.250.682.531.41-0.03-2.62-2.42-10.231.565.225.972.35-0.574.072.983.971.702.09Uruguay



PKF/GDPaverage


Bolivia0.95-0.140.780.671.892.002.133.561.66-6.05-2.37-8.07-14.96-0.55-12.03-10.23-15.62-0.966.69-4.624.082.054.451.013.176.7011.0613.008.496.00-0.04

Colombia0.920.500.300.970.240.210.58-0.060.861.293.243.381.691.101.25-0.68-0.280.860.310.12-0.840.633.331.645.375.486.083.41-2.362.531.36

Ecuador3.701.811.321.181.371.204.455.354.667.023.013.9816.778.967.187.04-3.393.741.202.343.365.5611.092.990.264.216.686.69-11.433.273.87

Peru-0.190.091.022.571.950.54-0.20-1.85-2.18-0.890.752.741.751.621.552.412.183.573.123.481.444.292.3710.337.397.994.253.03-0.494.512.23

Venezuela, RB1.12-0.580.46-1.680.010.162.895.155.230.29-3.06-3.21-5.85-4.20-3.60-2.170.91-2.86-6.08-11.76-5.77-2.76-2.31-9.94-10.22-6.17-5.08-2.47-2.11-5.20-2.61


PKF/GDP4.973.62promedio absoluto

countries1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99

Costa Rica2.060.581.412.991.942.442.903.893.614.870.03-3.77-1.97-4.91-2.51-2.19-5.60-0.940.103.180.881.132.91-0.872.755.614.575.155.783.101.24Costa Rica

El Salvador0.42-0.030.162.061.370.781.624.47-0.113.822.12-1.90-1.05-2.16-1.68-1.320.440.421.150.371.74-1.32-0.450.240.610.622.236.652.631.440.82El Salvador

Guatemala0.780.580.861.231.621.171.553.231.532.501.611.180.732.031.320.863.902.212.612.484.905.337.007.703.164.554.317.715.615.592.91Guatemala

Honduras0.770.301.883.542.123.911.641.614.460.021.260.34-3.161.291.491.005.591.15-7.131.38-2.58-0.30-6.022.798.786.367.137.3916.424.442.19Honduras

Nicaragua1.460.014.857.995.99-1.532.51-6.47-21.05-12.0812.47-1.24-25.62-14.51-11.63-42.31-38.93-9.62-31.32-33.74-63.77-78.58-53.381.235.316.169.619.6314.05-16.64-12.57Nicaragua

-0.41-1.08promedio simple


country19711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996.001997.001998199991-9971-99

BAHAMAS, THE0.540.000.742.362.371.930.920.891.640.585.893.270.780.980.481.170.372.512.271.221.950.470.132.263.143.7313.2013.157.195.022.63

BARBADOS1.841.532.550.400.531.000.921.451.921.837.450.240.770.700.903.246.503.240.591.731.787.784.960.722.553.790.281.823.483.022.29

BELIZE5.433.956.251.977.331.633.853.393.642.542.271.431.290.393.671.961.150.492.251.482.240.125.385.831.940.374.650.886.883.152.92

DOMINICA6.860.470.470.380.430.250.751.631.590.840.520.2612.341.257.418.838.8212.4817.221.5611.1911.4811.4810.055.15

GRENADA4.852.391.990.150.584.210.510.343.983.304.611.1610.005.456.311.567.258.756.428.7913.9611.801.777.404.79

GUYANA9.180.682.580.330.533.851.502.250.230.261.660.470.720.000.000.000.741.292.245.375.2119.3715.2113.6812.221.777.927.414.429.694.18

HAITI0.230.560.120.251.120.910.260.321.000.672.840.180.750.140.141.290.170.120.970.343.191.673.170.710.290.150.180.950.871.240.81

JAMAICA4.462.481.360.972.380.600.221.680.731.960.601.260.150.670.920.281.870.502.995.113.785.665.491.655.854.523.870.4312.144.822.57

ST. KITTS AND NEVIS0.371.161.983.853.834.621.180.570.803.875.477.1323.4815.2016.427.9311.852.273.6422.203.4425.7422.5112.898.24

ST. LUCIA12.7613.7513.462.904.984.532.954.852.1412.9713.4214.3414.3713.467.945.580.380.140.640.436.367.30

ST. VINCENT & GRENS.13.581.574.447.331.932.563.002.272.574.220.432.838.554.441.2514.9215.7916.2412.7715.5817.961.5911.2911.937.27

SURINAME2.554.929.571.5542.6923.946.514.650.151.2014.129.553.289.989.892.870.414.9362.786.6715.654.4414.7612.862.985.8415.4816.2315.9511.5811.26

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO5.594.872.182.558.320.338.496.7811.783.654.471.627.951.601.911.130.552.625.146.403.291.110.681.880.911.5915.9914.874.825.014.59



country1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99

Canada-0.31-0.080.14-0.051.362.302.181.291.761.711.223.18-1.360.750.250.600.022.731.701.901.40-0.54-1.26-0.12-0.60-2.65-2.971.471.55-0.410.61

Mexico0.710.531.352.083.193.221.301.892.364.8410.090.01-5.26-2.48-1.65-0.320.79-2.381.593.727.348.6611.926.321.394.384.845.455.926.252.82

United States-0.060.040.14-0.18-0.05-0.43-0.68-0.40-0.56-0.17-0.73-0.70-0.800.120.961.361.181.871.040.350.10-0.350.06-0.650.18-1.13-2.060.700.50-0.29-0.01


CUADRO I



Socio principal*

por acuerdo

de integracin198919901991199219931994199619971998

ASEAN

INDONESIA6.636.306.328.189.1210.438.918.1310.75

MCCA

GUATEMALA3.604.334.544.585.784.704.123.542.43

MERCOSUR

BRASIL0.270.280.510.760.640.580.530.570.58

NAFTA

Estados Unidos0.310.380.370.370.370.390.370.380.39

ECOWAS

NIGERIA6.634.906.312.522.731.983.213.263.60

SADC

SUDAFRICA0.02.32

CAN

COLOMBIA2.492.715.274.522.931.893.893.813.19

UNION EUROPEA

ALEMANIA4.030.930.930.950.900.910.900.903.92






19981989

NAFTA (USA)0.390.31

MERCOSUR (Brazil)0.580.27

SADC (South Africa)2.32n.a.

CACM (Guatemala)2.433.60

AC (Colombia)3.192.49


EUROPEAN UNION (Germany)3.924.03



CUADRO I

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Note: the indicator was estimated as the relationship between the exports from the biggest country to the RIA relative to the exports from the rest of the members countries to the biggest partner. In both cases, as a percentaje of total exports.In brackets, the biggest county in terms of its share in the regional GDP.Source: own estimations based on DOTS/IMF (2001) and WDI (2001)

1998

1989

ratio

The Level of Interdependency

BOX I Grafico






CAN32.2290.053.0616.841.841.671.657.85

31.51142.514.9330.042.653.065.4014.90

CARICOM11.668.841.531.290.711.782.282.33

13.899.013.062.933.065.153.784.77

MCCA37.42 (398.604.265.501.291.722.083.72

78.36215.1715.4423.132.214.406.7515.29

MERCOSUR393.66 (4367.6040.9446.581.552.564.265.32

155.57196.9217.9231.643.364.843.857.81

ASEAN7.508.442.221.862.232.114.413.43

11.2011.292.973.373.654.165.507.51

UE2.695.470.330.900.901.341.050.86

3.196.330.651.381.752.252.372.25

Notas:





*Perodo 1971-2001

**Perodo 1971-1999

***Perodo 1980-2001


Grafico6

NAFTASADCMERCOSURECOWASMCCAASEANCANUECARICOM

0.890.810.700.500.350.360.370.290.26

0.070.040.270.110.280.290.320.180.21

0.040.030.020.080.220.160.210.130.17

0.030.010.070.100.140.070.130.13

0.030.040.050.040.030.070.09

0.020.040.010.050.03

0.020.040.010.030.03

0.020.030.000.030.03

0.010.020.030.01

0.010.020.020.01

0.010.020.020.01

0.010.010.010.01

0.000.010.010.01

0.000.000.01

0.00

Grafico6

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

Note: the indicator was estimated as the share of every country in the average regional s GDP for the period 1990-1999.Source: own estimations based on WDI (2001)

porcentaje por pas del PBI regional

Regional GDP distribution by country

T. Tobago

Alemania

Colombia

Indonesia

Guatemala

Nigeria

Brasil

Sudfrica

EE.UU

Sheet3

Nota: Porcentaje de observaciones significativas estadsticamente y promedio total ponderado (PIB) de todas las correlaciones.

Fuente: Clculos propios en base a WDI (2001)

1960-99

EUASEANMCCACANMERCOSURSADCNAFTAECOWAS

promedio ponderado total0.420.400.380.300.230.120.100.03

Sheet3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

promedio ponderado total

Grfico 6: Correlacin de los ciclos, 1960-99

TotalUENAFTAINTRAOTROS

CARICOM15,4879852,93092510,647

MCCA12,7441,9136,5202,5711,740

CAN55,8785,35929,9455,19115,383

MERCOSUR78,50017,32315,64117,69827,838

TotalUENAFTAIntra-reginotros pases

CARICOM1006.3618.925.9768.75

MCCA10015.0151.1620.1713.65

CAN1009.5953.599.2927.53

MERCOSUR10022.0719.9222.5535.46

CARICOMMCCACANMERCOSURCARICOMMCCACANMERCOSUR

otros pases84.6079.9090.9079.10Intra-regin15.4020.109.1020.90

UE15.6015.019.6019.90NAFTA46.4051.2053.6022.10

NAFTA46.4051.2053.6022.10UE15.6015.019.6019.90

Intra-regin15.4020.109.1020.90otros pases84.6079.9090.9079.10

84.6000

79.9000

90.9000

79.1000

otros pases

UE

NAFTA

Intra-regin

Exportaciones por destino como % de las Exportaciones totales

00084.6

00079.9

00090.9

00079.1

\

7

Intra-regin

NAFTA

UE

otros pases

Exportaciones por destino como % de las Exportaciones totales

MERCOSURIntraregional exports

Chart3

4.185198453217.3528969061

14.940997056735.2368196761

34.326430599754.0113773214

32.599353866655.3202857896

a) As a % of total exports

1989

1998

CUADRO I






CAN32.2290.053.0616.841.841.671.657.85

31.51142.514.9330.042.653.065.4014.90

CARICOM11.668.841.531.290.711.782.282.33

13.899.013.062.933.065.153.784.77

MCCA37.42 (398.604.265.501.291.722.083.72

78.36215.1715.4423.132.214.406.7515.29

MERCOSUR393.66 (4367.6040.9446.581.552.564.265.32

155.57196.9217.9231.643.364.843.857.81

ASEAN7.508.442.221.862.232.114.413.43

11.2011.292.973.373.654.165.507.51

UE2.695.470.330.900.901.341.050.86

3.196.330.651.381.752.252.372.25

Notas:





*Perodo 1971-2001

**Perodo 1971-1999

***Perodo 1980-2001


GRAFICO 1


CAN104

MCCA1112

ASEAN2118

MERCOSUR218

NAFTA4736

UE6562

MERCOSURCANMCCANAFTAASEANEU

19982.563.616.657.2113.1518.62

19890.821.244.543.749.2617.51

GRAFICO 1

00

00

00

00

00

00


2000

1989


trade

00

00

00

00

00

00



1998

1989


MERCOSUR

19891998

BRAZIL4.1917.35

ARGENTINA14.9435.24

PARAGUAY34.3354.01

URUGUAY32.6055.32


19890.330.340.150.04

19980.550.540.350.17

MERCOSUR

00

00

00

00


1989

1998

Grafico3

Op, Coeff.19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Argentina9.827.506.887.378.149.089.8810.7611.6411.679.84

Brazil6.627.588.309.639.809.348.618.158.878.7610.6

Paraguay33.8736.3734.1933.3342.4043.5243.0236.9335.3136.6822.98

Uruguay20.6020.8119.2820.0419.3420.0719.0519.8220.5420.1217.99


Argentina0.150.150.170.190.280.290.320.330.350.35

Brazil0.040.040.070.110.140.140.130.150.180.17

Paraguay0.340.360.330.350.370.520.570.630.540.54

Uruguay0.330.340.350.340.420.470.470.480.500.55


Argentina0.271.471.111.141.402.292.663.173.524.134.11

Brazil0.700.280.320.611.061.361.271.141.251.571.52

Paraguay0.0111.6312.9811.2111.6015.8522.6324.7123.3418.9019.81

Uruguay0.026.717.166.776.738.059.438.949.5310.2011.13

0.81911839650.77402985270.95942562961.35669122511.8670843331.98564110112.03816325192.2133340922.57572412942.5595803303

y as %


sav23.1220.2420.1618.2916.4215.7314.378.879744828716.99515.07014.90513.51612.27711.4109.5825.3424588279

y as %

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P




Volatilidad


BOX I Cuadro


Year1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99

Austria0.310.390.580.780.621.871.442.184.915.022.412.474.544.841.770.350.830.330.410.441.811.151.982.023.342.441.433.662.202.221.95Austria

Belgium0.300.660.650.250.180.160.690.201.241.271.261.272.111.402.101.371.843.311.952.946.4820.788.2711.375.3310.978.0018.2312.8511.374.39Belgium

Denmark0.350.040.350.780.391.421.260.561.380.721.321.570.931.121.772.771.832.091.472.731.660.344.284.271.152.957.892.978.543.782.03Denmark

France0.020.040.110.460.200.420.100.630.440.040.391.340.330.370.460.190.610.611.850.790.420.360.320.710.421.041.873.042.411.180.69France

Germany0.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.690.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.690.670.690.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.691.091.07Germany

Greece11.2311.5514.7021.2417.821.361.311.092.072.392.612.032.012.223.311.761.221.972.543.463.052.493.905.992.697.190.186.704.294.064.98Greece

Ireland0.730.510.762.330.421.431.612.445.845.766.744.782.962.521.651.960.200.211.014.792.910.872.023.060.290.194.764.461.532.232.37Ireland

Italy0.270.320.441.210.100.400.320.800.731.291.180.080.250.050.350.320.521.151.652.410.950.844.333.253.446.175.808.5010.064.821.97Italy



Spain0.110.020.011.020.921.260.690.270.161.291.251.130.580.480.480.810.010.732.183.290.8412.295.832.954.115.423.915.115.255.082.15Spain

Sweden0.190.280.700.460.200.901.200.141.272.301.531.810.420.270.620.280.060.321.462.932.063.654.342.072.004.211.941.121.142.501.38Sweden


3.652.15

menossur3.401.76


Country1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99


Brazil0.761.181.171.651.512.001.342.451.251.762.402.150.850.250.200.070.860.190.151.340.312.242.031.484.344.823.303.741.982.691.65Brazil


Uruguay2.760.881.571.860.891.842.676.119.6412.907.521.083.260.250.682.531.410.032.622.4210.231.565.225.972.350.574.072.983.974.103.44Uruguay

2.571.89

PKF/GDPaverage


Bolivia0.950.140.780.671.892.002.133.561.666.052.378.0714.960.5512.0310.2315.620.966.694.624.082.054.451.013.176.7011.0613.008.496.005.17

Colombia0.920.500.300.970.240.210.580.060.861.293.243.381.691.101.250.680.280.860.310.120.840.633.331.645.375.486.083.412.363.241.65

Ecuador3.701.811.321.181.371.204.455.354.667.023.013.9816.778.967.187.043.393.741.202.343.365.5611.092.990.264.216.686.6911.435.814.89

Peru0.190.091.022.571.950.540.201.852.180.890.752.741.751.621.552.412.183.573.123.481.444.292.3710.337.397.994.253.030.494.622.63

Venezuela, RB1.120.580.461.680.010.162.895.155.230.293.063.215.854.203.602.170.912.866.0811.765.772.762.319.9410.226.175.082.472.115.203.73

4.973.62


BOX I Grafico



Socio principal*

por acuerdo

de integracin198919901991199219931994199619971998

ASEAN

INDONESIA6.636.306.328.189.1210.438.918.1310.75

MCCA

GUATEMALA3.604.334.544.585.784.704.123.542.43

MERCOSUR

BRASIL0.270.280.510.760.640.580.530.570.58

NAFTA

Estados Unidos0.310.380.370.370.370.390.370.380.39

ECOWAS

NIGERIA6.634.906.312.522.731.983.213.263.60

SADC

SUDAFRICA0.02.32

CAN

COLOMBIA2.492.715.274.522.931.893.893.813.19

UNION EUROPEA

ALEMANIA4.030.930.930.950.900.910.900.903.92






19981989










BOX I Grafico

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

1998

1989

ratio


Sheet3


0.890.810.700.500.350.360.370.290.26

0.070.040.270.110.280.290.320.180.21

0.040.030.020.080.220.160.210.130.17

0.030.010.070.100.140.070.130.13

0.030.040.050.040.030.070.09

0.020.040.010.050.03

0.020.040.010.030.03

0.020.030.000.030.03

0.010.020.030.01

0.010.020.020.01

0.010.020.020.01

0.010.010.010.01

0.000.010.010.01

0.000.000.01

0.00

Sheet3

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

Nota: el indicador se calcul como la participacin de cada pas en el PBI regional promedio del perodo 1990-1999.Fuente: Clculos propios sobre datos del WDI (2001)

Acuerdos de Integracin Regional


Distribucin del PBI Regional

T. Tobago

Alemania

Colombia

Indonesia

Guatemala

Nigeria

Brasil

Sudfrica

EE.UU

Chart2

0.27713854221.5205728783

1.46704143374.1118546057

6.714417450611.1326852156

11.625281381715

1989

1998

b) as a % of GDP

CUADRO I






CAN32.2290.053.0616.841.841.671.657.85

31.51142.514.9330.042.653.065.4014.90

CARICOM11.668.841.531.290.711.782.282.33

13.899.013.062.933.065.153.784.77

MCCA37.42 (398.604.265.501.291.722.083.72

78.36215.1715.4423.132.214.406.7515.29

MERCOSUR393.66 (4367.6040.9446.581.552.564.265.32

155.57196.9217.9231.643.364.843.857.81

ASEAN7.508.442.221.862.232.114.413.43

11.2011.292.973.373.654.165.507.51

UE2.695.470.330.900.901.341.050.86

3.196.330.651.381.752.252.372.25

Notas:





*Perodo 1971-2001

**Perodo 1971-1999

***Perodo 1980-2001


GRAFICO 1


CAN104

MCCA1112

ASEAN2118

MERCOSUR218

NAFTA4736

UE6562

MERCOSURCANMCCANAFTAASEANUE

19982.563.616.657.2113.1518.62

19890.821.244.543.749.2617.51

GRAFICO 1

00

00

00

00

00

00


2000

1989


trade

00

00

00

00

00

00



1998

1989


MERCOSUR

19891998

BRAZIL4.1917.35

ARGENTINA14.9435.24

PARAGUAY34.3354.01

URUGUAY32.6055.32


19890.330.340.150.04

19980.550.540.350.17

MERCOSUR

00

00

00

00


1989

1998

Grafico3

Op, Coeff.19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Argentina9.827.506.887.378.149.089.8810.7611.6411.679.84

Brazil6.627.588.309.639.809.348.618.158.878.7610.6

Paraguay33.8736.3734.1933.3342.4043.5243.0236.9335.3136.6822.98

Uruguay20.6020.8119.2820.0419.3420.0719.0519.8220.5420.1217.99


Argentina0.150.150.170.190.280.290.320.330.350.35

Brazil0.040.040.070.110.140.140.130.150.180.17

Paraguay0.340.360.330.350.370.520.570.630.540.54

Uruguay0.330.340.350.340.420.470.470.480.500.55


Argentina0.271.471.111.141.402.292.663.173.524.134.11

Brazil0.700.280.320.611.061.361.271.141.251.571.52

Paraguay0.0111.6312.9811.2111.6015.8522.6324.7123.3418.9019.81

Uruguay0.026.717.166.776.738.059.438.949.5310.2011.13

0.81911839650.77402985270.95942562961.35669122511.8670843331.98564110112.03816325192.2133340922.57572412942.5595803303

19891998

BRASIL0.281.52

ARGENTINA1.474.11

URUGUAY6.7111.13

PARAGUAY11.6315.00

Grafico3

00

00

00

00

1989

1998

b) como porcentaje del PBI

y as %


sav23.1220.2420.1618.2916.4215.7314.378.879744828716.99515.07014.90513.51612.27711.4109.5825.3424588279

y as %

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P




Volatilidad


BOX I Cuadro


Year1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99

Austria0.310.390.580.780.621.871.442.184.915.022.412.474.544.841.770.350.830.330.410.441.811.151.982.023.342.441.433.662.202.221.95Austria

Belgium0.300.660.650.250.180.160.690.201.241.271.261.272.111.402.101.371.843.311.952.946.4820.788.2711.375.3310.978.0018.2312.8511.374.39Belgium

Denmark0.350.040.350.780.391.421.260.561.380.721.321.570.931.121.772.771.832.091.472.731.660.344.284.271.152.957.892.978.543.782.03Denmark

France0.020.040.110.460.200.420.100.630.440.040.391.340.330.370.460.190.610.611.850.790.420.360.320.710.421.041.873.042.411.180.69France

Germany0.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.690.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.690.670.690.822.590.751.382.020.540.390.670.691.091.07Germany

Greece11.2311.5514.7021.2417.821.361.311.092.072.392.612.032.012.223.311.761.221.972.543.463.052.493.905.992.697.190.186.704.294.064.98Greece

Ireland0.730.510.762.330.421.431.612.445.845.766.744.782.962.521.651.960.200.211.014.792.910.872.023.060.290.194.764.461.532.232.37Ireland

Italy0.270.320.441.210.100.400.320.800.731.291.180.080.250.050.350.320.521.151.652.410.950.844.333.253.446.175.808.5010.064.821.97Italy



Spain0.110.020.011.020.921.260.690.270.161.291.251.130.580.480.480.810.010.732.183.290.8412.295.832.954.115.423.915.115.255.082.15Spain

Sweden0.190.280.700.460.200.901.200.141.272.301.531.810.420.270.620.280.060.321.462.932.063.654.342.072.004.211.941.121.142.501.38Sweden


3.652.15

menossur3.401.76


Country1971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199991-9971-99


Brazil0.761.181.171.651.512.001.342.451.251.762.402.150.850.250.200.070.860.190.151.340.312.242.031.484.344.823.303.741.982.691.65Brazil


Uruguay2.760.881.571.860.891.842.676.119.6412.907.521.083.260.250.682.531.410.032.622.4210.231.565.225.972.350.574.072.983.974.103.44Uruguay

2.571.89

PKF/GDPaverage


Bolivia0.950.140.780.671.892.002.133.561.666.052.378.0714.960.5512.0310.2315.620.966.694.624.082.054.451.013.176.7011.0613.008.496.005.17

Colombia0.920.500.300.970.240.210.580.060.861.293.243.381.691.101.250.680.280.860.310.120.840.633.331.645.375.486.083.412.363.241.65

Ecuador3.701.811.321.181.371.204.455.354.667.023.013.9816.778.967.187.043.393.741.202.343.365.5611.092.990.264.216.686.6911.435.814.89

Peru0.190.091.022.571.950.540.201.852.180.890.752.741.751.621.552.412.183.573.123.481.444.292.3710.337.397.994.253.030.494.622.63

Venezuela, RB1.120.580.461.680.010.162.895.155.230.293.063.215.854.203.602.170.912.866.0811.765.772.762.319.9410.226.175.082.472.115.203.73

4.973.62


BOX I Grafico



Socio principal*

por acuerdo

de integracin198919901991199219931994199619971998

ASEAN

INDONESIA6.636.306.328.189.1210.438.918.1310.75

MCCA

GUATEMALA3.604.334.544.585.784.704.123.542.43

MERCOSUR

BRASIL0.270.280.510.760.640.580.530.570.58

NAFTA

Estados Unidos0.310.380.370.370.370.390.370.380.39

ECOWAS

NIGERIA6.634.906.312.522.731.983.213.263.60

SADC

SUDAFRICA0.02.32

CAN

COLOMBIA2.492.715.274.522.931.893.893.813.19

UNION EUROPEA

ALEMANIA4.030.930.930.950.900.910.900.903.92






19981989










BOX I Grafico

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

1998

1989

ratio


Grafico6


0.890.810.700.500.350.360.370.290.26

0.070.040.270.110.280.290.320.180.21

0.040.030.020.080.220.160.210.130.17

0.030.010.070.100.140.070.130.13

0.030.040.050.040.030.070.09

0.020.040.010.050.03

0.020.040.010.030.03

0.020.030.000.030.03

0.010.020.030.01

0.010.020.020.01

0.010.020.020.01

0.010.010.010.01

0.000.010.010.01

0.000.000.01

0.00

Grafico6

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

000000000000000

Nota: el indicador se calcul como la participacin de cada pas en el PBI regional promedio del perodo 1990-1999.Fuente: Clculos propios sobre datos del WDI (2001)

Acuerdos de Integracin Regional


Distribucin del PBI Regional

T. Tobago

Alemania

Colombia

Indonesia

Guatemala

Nigeria

Brasil

Sudfrica

EE.UU

Sheet3

Nota: Porcentaje de observaciones significativas estadsticamente y promedio total ponderado (PIB) de todas las correlaciones.

Fuente: Clculos propios en base a WDI (2001)

1960-99

EUASEANMCCACANMERCOSURSADCNAFTAECOWAS

promedio ponderado total0.420.400.380.300.230.120.100.03

Sheet3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

promedio ponderado total

Grfico 6: Correlacin de los ciclos, 1960-99

Financial interdependenceLack of financial relationsButSimilar external financial shocksContagion

Financial shocksCorrelation of capital movements

Cuadro I

Cuadro I: Tasa de Crecimiento de las Exportaciones Totales e Intra-regionales (%) en el MERCOSUR, 1990-2000

Crecimiento

Anual Promedio

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920001990-2000

MERCOSUR

Exportaciones Totales-0.3-1.110.07.314.813.36.59.8-1.2-8.613.95.9

Exportaciones Extra-regionales-1.0-0.46.02.013.711.73.57.5-2.1-3.013.24.7

Exportaciones Intra-regionales7.623.641.438.919.320.318.517.71.5-25.516.716.4

MERCOSUR+Chile+Bolivia

Exportaciones Totales0.5-0.510.05.017.017.64.29.7-3.4-6.014.06.2

Exportaciones Extra-regionales0.1-3.66.0-0.316.516.41.27.5-4.40.112.64.7

Exportaciones Intra-regionales3.123.433.630.418.622.014.416.5-0.7-22.218.614.3

FUENTE: BID (2001)

Cuadro II

Cuadro II: Inversion Extranjera Directa en el Mercosur, 1984-1999

Promedios Anuales, monto en millones de dolares y porcentajes

1984-891990-931994-961997-99

Pais/regionMonto%Monto%Monto%Monto%

Total mundial..115,370100.0197,282100.0321,783100.067,287100.0

Paises desarrollados93,11780.7132,90671.0190,20659.146,41069.0

Paises en desarrollo.22,19519.25,10627.3120,61137.518,86328.0

America Latina

y el Caribe7,7396.71,5088.13,62611.37,78011.6

MERCOSUR1,5941.43,8802.11,2043.74,0025.9

Argentina6630.62,8751.55391.41,4412.0

Brasil9060.8980.56,1871.92,6203.9

Paraguay.60.0870.0160.1220.0

Uruguay..290.0880.0290.1330.1

.

FUENTE: Chudnovski (2001) basado en datos de UNCTAD

Cuadro III

Cuadro III: Dficit en Cuenta Corriente como Porcentaje del PBI, MERCOSUR, 1991-00

19911992199319941995199619971998199920001991-001996-00

Argentina-0.3-2.5-3.5-4.3-2.0-2.5-4.2-4.9-4.4-3.2-3.2-3.8

Bolivia-4.9-9.7-8.8-1.5-4.5-5.2-7.0-8.0-6.7-5.6-6.2-6.5

Brazil-0.41.60.0-0.2-2.6-3.0-3.8-4.4-3.3-4.1-2.0-3.7

Chile-0.3-2.3-5.7-3.1-2.1-5.1-5.0-5.7-0.1-1.4-3.1-3.5

Paraguay1.4-0.90.9-3.5-2.6-5.2-2.6-1.5-3.0-4.0-2.1-3.3

Uruguay0.4-0.1-1.7-2.7-1.2-1.2-1.3-2.1-2.9-3.0-1.6-2.1

Promedio*-0.7-2.3-3.1-2.6-2.5-3.7-4.0-4.4-3.4-3.5-3.0-3.8

FUENTE: World Development Indicators (2001)

* Promedio simple

Cuadro IV

Cuadro IV: Tasa de Crecimiento del PBI en los paises del MERCOSUR, 1990-01

PromedioPromedio

WEIGHTS1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020011991-981999-01

Argentina0.27-2.412.711.95.95.8-2.95.58.13.9-3.4-0.5-4.46.4-2.8

Brazil0.70-4.31.3-0.54.95.94.22.73.30.20.84.51.52.72.3

Paraguay0.013.12.51.84.23.14.71.32.6-0.40.5-0.32.62.50.9

Uruguay0.020.33.57.92.77.3-1.55.65.14.5-2.9-1.3-3.14.4-2.4

MERCOSUR-3.64.43.05.15.92.23.54.61.3-0.43.0-0.23.70.8

Bolivia4.645.271.654.274.674.684.364.955.230.442.371.24.41.3

Chile3.77.9712.286.995.7110.637.267.543.92-1.145.382.87.82.3

FUENTE: World Development Indicators (2001) y WEO (2001)

Cuadro VI

Cuadro VI: Simetra del Ciclo Econmico entre los pases del MERCOSUR y EE.UU

1962-2002

ArgentinaBrazilParaguayUruguayBoliviaChileEE.UU.MundoPromedio

Argentina1

Todos0.24

Merco0.30

Brasil0.151Merco+0.30

0.32

Paraguay0.040.141

0.780.37

Uruguay0.500.330.621

0.000.030.00

Bolivia0.090.060.460.441

0.570.700.000.00

Chile0.240.070.590.590.121

0.130.660.000.000.46

EE.UU.-0.020.10-0.060.110.200.221

0.910.510.710.470.210.17

Mundo0.040.280.040.25-0.050.420.651

0.790.070.800.100.750.000.00

1990-2002

ArgentinaBrazilParaguayUruguayBoliviaChileEE.UU.MundoPromedio

Argentina1

Todos0.38

Brasil0.331Merco0.46

0.27Merco+0.58

Paraguay0.290.451

0.330.12

Uruguay0.950.340.361

0.000.250.22

Bolivia0.750.470.660.811

0.000.100.010.00

Chile0.710.330.740.750.771

0.010.280.000.000.00

EE.UU.0.100.34-0.270.240.17-0.191

0.740.260.380.440.570.53

Mundo-0.13-0.07-0.100.090.09-0.070.531

0.670.820.740.770.760.830.06

FUENTE: Clculos propios con base en WDI (2001)

Nota: debajo de los coeficientes de correlacin se encuentra en cursivas el p-estadistico. En negrita

los coeficientes positivos y significativos estadsticamente.

Cuadro V

Cuadro V: Volatilidad de los Tipos de Cambio Real en el Mercosur, 1980-2000

AR/BRAR/URARG/PARAR/BOAR/CHBRA/URUBR/PABR/BOBR/CH

80-840.130.160.140.330.120.100.070.300.04

85-900.250.250.270.400.260.050.120.310.08

91-950.060.070.060.070.070.030.030.030.04

96-000.050.010.040.010.020.050.060.050.05

98-020.100.090.090.080.080.060.070.060.05

80-02*0.150.160.160.260.150.060.080.210.06

FUENTE: IFS/IMF (2001)

Nota: La volatilidad fue calculada como el desvo estndar de la diferencia logartmica entre cada perodo

y el perodo anterior, sobre datos mensuales

*Promedio simple

Cuadro VII

Cuadro VII.: Flujos de Capital Privado como % del PBI

MERCOSUR

Promedio

70-8081-9091-991970-1999

Argentina0.830.292.711.231.23

Brazil1.510.742.691.611.61

Paraguay1.350.200.760.770.77

Uruguay3.620.901.702.092.09

Chile2.614.284.683.83

Bolivia0.75-6.276.00-0.04

MERCOSUR+2*1.780.023.095.691.58

Unin Europea

Promedio

70-8081-9091-991970-1999

Austria-1.27-1.591.82-0.42

Blgica0.191.9511.374.27

Dinamarca0.731.470.851.02

Francia-0.040.69-1.08-0.11

Alemania1.071.041.091.07

Grecia8.482.314.064.98

Irlanda2.182.641.792.22

Italia0.100.66-4.61-1.17

Holanda-0.03-1.17-2.59-1.22

Portugal0.131.824.692.13

Espaa0.470.742.821.29

Suecia0.440.860.440.58

Reino Unido0.020.78-0.170.22

Union Europea*0.890.871.461.06

FUENTE: Clculos propios en base a IFS/IMF (2001)

*Promedio simple

CUADRO VIII

Cuadro VIII: La Volatilidad de los Flujos de Capital Privado

como porcentaje del PBI

71-8081-9091-9971-99

MERCOSUR0.690.801.141.20

1.871.512.282.09

CAN0.601.061.671.23

1.803.634.004.13

MCCA0.831.293.112.43

2.845.2110.047.18

CARICOM(10.901.412.431.97

3.894.945.826.16

NAFTA0.200.870.900.75

0.872.171.842.05

ASEAN0.831.925.123.14

1.183.006.445.20

SADC8.481.601.546.07

4.423.075.856.07

ECOWAS0.592.071.381.62

4.813.583.594.61

UE0.390.500.970.68

1.301.132.662.44

UE menos UE "Sur"(20.370.531.030.79

0.821.092.502.24

Notas:

en letra itlica esta medida la volatilidad del promedio ponderado por PBI, y en letra normal el promedio simple de las

volatilidades de cada pas

1) Debido a problemas de informacin se incluyeron solo cuatro pases para el CARICOM:

Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica y Trinidad y Tobago, que representan el 63% del PBI regional.

2) UE "Sur": Pases de menor desarrollo relativo en la UE: Espaa, Irlanda, Portugal y Grecia

FUENTE: Machinea y Monteagudo (2002)

Cuadro IX

as percentage of GDP in Mercosur countries, 1971-2000

,

ArgentinaBrasilParaguayUruguayChileBolivia

Argentina1

Brasil0.291

0.13

Paraguay0.090.451

0.640.02

Uruguay0.500.260.571

0.010.170.00

Chile0.390.370.500.541

0.040.050.010.00

Bolivia0.270.500.25-0.040.071

0.150.010.190.840.73

Source: Own estimation based on IMF

Nota: Debajo de cada coeficiente de correlacin se encuentra el p-estadstico.

En negrita los coeficientes positivos y significativos estadisticamente.

Cuadro X

Cuadro X: Variacin de los Flujos de Capitales (en miles de millones de dolares y % del PBI)

En miles de millones de dolares

1990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Argentina2.02.39.48.513.3-4.80.38.11.5-2.6

Brazil9.0-6.211.7-0.7-2.920.64.3-10.33.3-13.0

Paraguay-0.10.1-0.10.10.10.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

Uruguay0.0-0.60.90.30.1-0.3-0.30.4-0.10.1

Chile1.5-1.82.00.42.2-3.03.12.0-4.1-4.1

Bolivia-0.60.5-0.10.2-0.20.10.30.30.2-0.3

MERCOSUR11.0-4.421.98.210.615.54.4-1.74.6-15.6

Mercosur +211.9-5.723.88.712.612.77.80.60.8-20.0

Como porcentaje del PBI

1990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Argentina1.01.23.93.15.4-1.80.12.70.4-0.7

Brazil1.5-1.01.9-0.2-0.52.90.5-1.50.4-1.8

Paraguay-1.10.6-0.80.81.70.10.0-0.4-0.4-0.8

Uruguay0.1-3.95.91.80.2-1.6-1.42.1-0.60.5

Chile3.5-4.33.70.53.5-5.44.22.2-5.6-5.3

Bolivia-11.38.7-2.02.4-3.42.23.54.41.9-4.5

FUENTE: Clculos propios en base a WEO (2001) y WDI (2001)

Cuadro XI

TOT

1990199119921993199419951996199719981999

ARGENTINA-0.050.100.000.020.00-0.060.080.00-0.05-0.05

BRAZIL-0.060.190.040.080.150.090.010.06-0.02-0.10

PARAGUAY0.010.00-0.080.100.21-0.050.000.050.05-0.21

URUGUAY-0.13-0.02-0.02-0.020.000.06-0.010.010.06-0.03

X+M

ARGENTINA8215.53510125.08513548.0514945.3519383.119791.924225.6527827.329140.424201.0552060.7

BRAZIL28195.528575.5529827.6534883.54000550483.8553334.956101957234.951546.9118012.7

PARAGUAY1202.791121.071056.671220.121585.641997.9752089.9852753.112753.9251936.714156.95

URUGUAY1523.791570.0351815.0252006.9452349.452493.912859.9553222.4653290.1852907.7555760.17

GDP

ARGENTINA141,352189,720228,779236,754257,711258,303272,436293,167298,444283,166

BRAZIL464,989407,729390,567438,299546,486704,168774,869803,585774,967751,505

PARAGUAY5,2656,2496,4476,8757,8539,0169,6289,6128,5987,741

URUGUAY9,28711,20012,98514,12816,37218,34820,20821,44122,20520,805

Cuadro XI: Impacto de la Variacin de los Trminos del Intercambio

(mill. De U$S y % del PBI, Mercosur, por pases)

En millones de dlares

1990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Argentina-4011,030430118-1,1442,058110-1,350-1,263

Brasil-1,5985,3221,2552,6975,8384,6655233,543-1,221-4,998

Paraguay120-88119326-978124142-398

Uruguay-194-31-38-342140-2845198-90

Necesidad de Financ.*-2,193-31-125-340-1,241-280-2,373-6,351

Como porcentaje del PBI

Argentina-0.280.540.000.130.01-0.440.760.04-0.45-0.45

Brasil-0.341.310.320.621.070.660.070.44-0.16-0.67

Paraguay0.230.01-1.361.734.15-1.080.091.291.65-5.14

Uruguay-2.09-0.27-0.29-0.240.010.77-0.140.210.89-0.43

Necesidad de Financ.*-2.71-0.27-1.65-0.240.00-1.52-0.140.000.28-1.54


*Necesidad de financiamiento definida como la suma simple del impacto de la variacion de los TI en el PBI ( en Millones de U$S y %)

Cuadro XII

Cuadro XII: Reservas Totales de los Paises de Sudamerica (en millones de SDRs y %)

19911992199319941995199619971998199920001991-2000*

Argentina4,3427,41810,1949,9679,76512,74316,55517,59219,13919,30112,702

Bolivia106163194340475697838635674631475

Brasil5,68716,45722,38325,52333,60040,68937,77630,40225,46325,00226,298

Chile4,9886,7337,0849,0309,57710,38112,89111,16710,53911,3089,370

Colombia4,5985,6515,7845,4845,6266,8557,2786,1575,8466,8556,013

Guyana87137180169181229234196195234184

Paraguay674410461707736731632615714585626

Uruguay3144416127238349311,2151,5351,5791,9401,012

Venezuela, Rep. Bol.7,8587,3567,1115,9274,6288,59911,0588,8079,28710,4048,103

Ecuador6626471,0191,2781,1091,3071,5661,1651,2117561,072

0.0

MERCOSUR11,01624,72733,64936,92044,93555,09356,17850,14446,89546,82840,639

MERCOSUR+216,11031,62340,92746,29154,98866,17169,90761,94558,10858,76750,484

SUDAMERICA29,31445,41355,02159,14966,53283,16190,04278,27074,64877,01665,856

Hemisferio Occidental46,67765,05379,89272,34087,892109,232126,352114,863112,519120,47393,529

MERCOSUR (como % de Total SA)38%54%61%62%68%66%62%64%63%61%62%

MERCOSUR+2 (como % de Total SA)55%70%74%78%83%80%78%79%78%76%75%

MERCOSUR+2 (como % de HO)35%49%51%64%63%61%55%54%52%49%53%


*Promedio simple

Cuadro XIIIa

Cuadro XIIIa: Tipos de cambio real y factor de compensacion

Tipo de cambio Argentina/Brasil observadoTipo de cambio Argentina/Brasil "normal"AR/BR- Prom. Mvil1.10-0.90Tipo de cambio Argentina/"Resto del mundo" observadoTipo de cambio Argentina/"Resto del mundo" "normal"ARG/"resto del mundo"- Prom. Mvil1.10-0.90ar/br-mFactor de compensacinTipo de cambio Brasil-Argentina observadoTipo de cambio Brasil-Argentina "normal"BRA/ARG-Prom. Mvil1.1-0.9Tipo de cambio Brasil-"Resto del Mundo" observadoTipo de cambio Brasil-"Resto del Mundo" "normal"BRA/"Resto del mundo"-Prom. Mvil1.1-0.9Factor de compensacin

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)

1980M168.61143.72145.74209.47

1980M267.75139.30147.59205.60

1980M367.31131.99148.56196.10

1980M465.21131.59153.34201.78

1980M564.17131.18155.84204.43

1980M663.32128.69157.93203.24

1980M763.08124.89158.52197.98

1980M862.69123.09159.51196.35

1980M961.40121.00162.87197.08

1980M1059.90112.24166.93187.36

1980M1159.86107.47167.04179.52

1980M1259.27105.37168.71177.77

1981M158.60100.34170.65171.23

1981M263.55106.04157.35166.86

1981M361.48104.98162.66170.77

1981M475.70127.73132.10168.74

1981M573.07120.39136.86164.77

1981M6102.35167.7597.71163.90

1981M788.26141.61113.31160.45

1981M888.52144.58112.96163.32

1981M989.57150.08111.65167.56

1981M1091.07155.89109.80171.16

1981M1191.36161.27109.45176.51

1981M1290.92158.10109.98173.88

1982M1116.72197.2985.68169.03

1982M2113.88184.2787.81161.81

1982M3118.43186.6884.44157.64

1982M4125.58200.9479.63160.01

1982M5144.77231.0769.07159.61

1982M6147.92223.7567.60151.26

1982M7298.03445.9233.55149.62

1982M8287.47428.6734.79149.12

1982M9241.10364.9441.48151.36

1982M10208.85318.7547.88152.62

1982M11194.73309.7251.35159.05

1982M12199.32320.7250.17160.91

1983M1191.52310.0452.21161.88

1983M2146.70306.1968.17208.72

1983M3144.69305.6369.11211.23

1983M4143.76310.0669.56215.67

1983M5140.30305.3971.28217.67

1983M6132.66286.5375.38215.99

1983M7127.72279.0578.30218.49

1983M8122.14263.3981.87215.65

1983M9114.87252.1987.06219.55

1983M10112.22261.3589.11232.89

1983M11112.74262.6388.70232.95

1983M12117.63269.7485.01229.31

1984M1121.60275.8082.24226.81

1984M2113.08269.9288.43238.69

1984M3103.53255.9596.59247.24

1984M499.94242.88100.06243.02

1984M599.54238.30100.46239.39

1984M699.10233.12100.91235.24

1984M798.62227.38101.40230.56

1984M896.45224.88103.68233.16

1984M993.17210.24107.33225.66

1984M1095.78221.27104.41231.02

1984M11105.98243.5194.35229.76

1984M12109.33112.95-3.62124.24101.65244.33214.2030.14235.62192.78-3.62-33.7591.46103.96-12.50114.3693.56223.48194.0329.45213.43174.63-41.94

1985M1141.87114.1727.70125.59102.75270.17216.3053.87237.93194.6727.70-26.1770.49102.71-32.22112.9892.44190.44193.71-3.28213.09174.34-28.94

1985M2139.73115.3724.36126.91103.83261.31218.3442.97240.17196.5024.36-18.6271.57101.44-29.87111.5891.30187.01193.40-6.39212.74174.06-23.48

1985M3140.81116.5924.22128.25104.94270.02220.6449.38242.70198.5724.22-25.1671.02100.15-29.13110.1690.13191.76193.33-1.58212.67174.00-27.55

1985M4135.78117.7718.01129.55105.99280.12223.1157.01245.43200.8018.01-39.0073.6598.82-25.17108.7088.94206.31193.4112.90212.75174.07-38.07

1985M5138.80119.0119.78130.92107.11296.93225.8871.05248.46203.2919.78-51.2772.0597.42-25.38107.1687.68213.93193.5720.36212.92174.21-45.74

1985M6141.81120.3221.49132.36108.29309.58228.8980.69251.78206.0021.49-59.1970.5295.96-25.45105.5686.37218.30193.8224.48213.20174.44-49.93

1985M7135.99121.5414.45133.69109.38297.70231.7765.93254.95208.5914.45-51.4873.5494.55-21.01104.0085.09218.92194.1724.75213.58174.75-45.77

1985M8137.02122.7814.24135.05110.50291.95234.5957.36258.04211.1314.24-43.1272.9893.11-20.12102.4283.80213.07194.4418.62213.89175.00-38.75

1985M9134.25123.9910.26136.39111.59292.99237.4555.54261.20213.7110.26-45.2874.4991.63-17.15100.8082.47218.24194.8023.45214.28175.32-40.59

1985M10132.78125.217.57137.73112.68297.47240.5456.93264.59216.497.57-49.3675.3290.11-14.7999.1281.10224.04195.4128.63214.95175.87-43.42

1985M11135.55126.479.08139.11113.82297.84243.7154.12268.08219.349.08-45.0473.7888.55-14.7897.4179.70219.73196.0823.65215.69176.47-38.43

1985M12136.19127.758.44140.52114.97292.88246.8446.04271.52222.158.44-37.6073.4386.96-13.5495.6678.27215.05196.7018.35216.37177.03-31.89

1986M1132.49128.983.51141.88116.08292.22250.0442.19275.04225.033.51-38.6875.4885.38-9.9093.9276.84220.56197.5223.04217.27177.77-32.94

1986M2127.48130.05-2.56143.05117.04299.78253.2646.51278.59227.94-2.56-49.0778.4484.06-5.6292.4775.66235.15198.6636.49218.53178.79-42.11

1986M3120.15131.02-10.87144.13117.92284.77256.2628.51281.89230.63-10.87-39.3883.2382.740.4991.0174.46237.01199.7637.24219.74179.79-36.75

1986M4121.39131.79-10.39144.96118.61293.13259.0234.11284.92233.12-10.39-44.5082.3881.910.4790.1073.72241.47200.9840.49221.07180.88-40.02

1986M5121.14132.59-11.44145.85119.33284.69261.7622.94287.93235.58-11.44-34.3882.5581.001.5489.1072.90235.01202.1532.86222.36181.93-31.32

1986M6121.44132.90-11.46146.20119.61286.60263.7422.86290.11237.36-11.46-34.3382.3480.751.6088.8272.67236.00203.3532.65223.68183.01-31.05

1986M7119.59133.43-13.84146.77120.08286.62266.1520.47292.77239.54-13.84-34.3083.6280.253.3688.2872.23239.67204.6735.00225.14184.20-31.63

1986M8124.48134.03-9.55147.43120.62291.17268.6022.58295.46241.74-9.55-32.1380.3479.710.6387.6871.74233.92205.8528.07226.43185.26-27.45

1986M9125.35134.62-9.28148.08121.16292.11270.9621.15298.06243.87-9.28-30.4379.7879.180.6087.1071.26233.05206.9426.11227.63186.24-25.51

1986M10126.08135.21-9.13148.73121.69288.66273.1815.48300.49245.86-9.13-24.6179.3278.670.6586.5470.80228.95207.9021.05228.69187.11-20.41

1986M11130.56135.86-5.30149.44122.27288.55275.3013.25302.83247.77-5.30-18.5576.5978.12-1.5385.9470.31221.01208.6412.37229.51187.78-13.90

1986M12143.63136.746.89150.41123.06291.80277.5314.27305.28249.776.89-7.3869.6277.45-7.8385.2069.71203.16209.13-5.97230.04188.22-1.86

1987M1148.88137.2711.60151.00123.55298.93279.2219.71307.14251.3011.60-8.1167.1777.14-9.9784.8669.43200.79209.66-8.87230.63188.69-1.11

1987M2157.22138.0019.22151.80124.20326.10281.5844.52309.74253.4319.22-25.3063.6176.74-13.1384.4169.06207.42210.42-3.00231.46189.38-10.13

1987M3146.76138.478.29152.31124.62304.95283.5521.39311.91255.208.29-13.1068.1476.47-8.3384.1168.82207.79211.26-3.47232.38190.13-4.86

1987M4148.95138.8610.10152.74124.97300.18285.2114.97313.73256.6910.10-4.8767.1376.26-9.1283.8868.63201.53211.95-10.42233.14190.751.30

1987M5140.88138.792.08152.67124.91302.95286.4116.54315.05257.772.08-14.4670.9876.29-5.3183.9268.66215.04212.872.17234.16191.58-7.48

1987M6135.38138.58-3.20152.44124.73309.74287.8421.90316.62259.06-3.20-25.1073.8676.39-2.5384.0368.76228.79214.1614.62235.58192.75-17.15

1987M7129.30135.77-6.47149.35122.19307.27285.5321.74314.08256.98-6.47-28.2177.3477.120.2184.8469.41237.64215.6322.01237.19194.07-21.79

1987M8130.57133.16-2.59146.47119.84315.08283.6431.45312.00255.27-2.59-34.0476.5977.82-1.2385.6070.04241.32217.1724.15238.88195.45-25.39

1987M9138.22131.446.77144.59118.30328.96283.0445.93311.34254.736.77-39.1572.3578.34-5.9986.1770.50238.01218.6119.40240.47196.75-25.38

1987M10159.76130.6229.14143.69117.56374.92283.9790.95312.37255.5829.14-61.8162.5978.58-15.9986.4470.72234.67219.9814.69241.98197.98-30.68

1987M11150.19129.8820.31142.87116.89352.42284.6867.73313.15256.2220.31-47.4266.5878.83-12.2586.7270.95234.65221.2413.41243.36199.11-25.66

1987M12156.08129.1626.92142.08116.24373.06285.5687.50314.11257.0026.92-60.5864.0779.07-15.0086.9771.16239.01222.5416.47244.79200.29-31.47

1988M1160.69128.6532.04141.51115.78368.58286.5382.05315.19257.8832.04-50.0162.2379.23-17.0087.1671.31229.37223.675.71246.03201.30-22.71

1988M2162.21128.9133.31141.80116.01374.99287.6887.31316.45258.9133.31-54.0161.6579.12-17.4887.0471.21231.17224.047.13246.44201.64-24.61

1988M3161.84129.1932.65142.11116.27380.26288.9291.34317.81260.0332.65-58.6961.7979.00-17.2186.9071.10234.96224.4310.52246.88201.99-27.74

1988M4165.14129.5535.59142.50116.59384.44290.1694.28319.18261.1535.59-58.6860.5578.85-18.3086.7470.97232.79224.728.07247.19202.25-26.37

1988M5159.47129.8729.60142.85116.88376.00291.3484.66320.47262.2129.60-55.0662.7178.71-16.0086.5870.84235.79225.0210.77247.52202.52-26.77

1988M6171.07130.5140.57143.56117.46381.35292.9288.43322.21263.6340.57-47.8758.4578.43-19.9786.2770.59222.92225.14-2.22247.65202.62-17.75

1988M7169.39131.2038.19144.32118.08369.62294.4375.19323.87264.9938.19-37.0059.0378.11-19.0785.9270.30218.20225.13-6.93247.65202.62-12.14

1988M8145.12131.5813.53144.74118.43320.90295.3925.52324.93265.8513.53-11.9868.9177.89-8.9885.6870.10221.13225.22-4.09247.75202.70-4.89

1988M9135.75131.933.82145.13118.74289.34296.01-6.67325.61266.413.8210.4973.6677.67-4.0085.4369.90213.14225.12-11.98247.63202.617.98

1988M10127.67132.19-4.52145.41118.97283.69296.38-12.69326.02266.74-4.528.1778.3377.490.8485.2469.74222.20224.94-2.74247.43202.453.57

1988M11125.69132.41-6.71145.65119.17285.95296.77-10.81326.44267.09-6.714.1079.5677.342.2285.0769.60227.50224.852.65247.33202.36-0.43

1988M12123.86132.51-8.65145.76119.26278.12296.91-18.79326.60267.22-8.6510.1480.7477.263.4784.9969.54224.54224.77-0.23247.25202.293.70

1991M1167.15133.2733.88146.60119.94291.89297.18-5.28326.89267.4633.8839.1659.8376.89-17.0684.5869.20174.63225.54-50.91248.09202.9833.84

1991M2146.66133.8312.83147.21120.45244.44296.75-52.31326.43267.0812.8365.1468.1976.55-8.3784.2168.90166.67223.64-56.96246.00201.2748.60

1991M3137.40134.393.01147.83120.95201.86295.85-93.99325.43266.263.0197.0072.7876.16-3.3883.7768.54146.91221.13-74.22243.25199.0270.84

1991M4127.08134.85-7.77148.33121.36193.34295.02-101.68324.53265.52-7.7793.9178.6975.802.8983.3868.22152.14218.65-66.51240.52196.7969.40

1991M5123.93135.25-11.32148.78121.73190.91294.23-103.33323.66264.81-11.3292.0080.6975.475.2283.0267.92154.05216.40-62.36238.04194.7667.58

1991M6123.25135.65-12.40149.22122.09182.87293.40-110.53322.74264.06-12.4098.1381.1375.145.9982.6667.63148.37213.97-65.60235.37192.5771.60

1991M7122.12136.05-13.92149.65122.44179.89292.60-112.71321.87263.34-13.9298.7981.8974.827.0782.3067.33147.31211.40-64.10232.54190.2671.17

1991M8123.55136.50-12.94150.15122.85179.45291.85-112.39321.03262.66-12.9499.4580.9474.446.5081.8866.99145.24208.94-63.70229.83188.0570.20

1991M9120.84136.96-16.12150.65123.26180.06291.34-111.28320.48262.21-16.1295.1782.7574.038.7281.4366.62149.00206.61-57.60227.27185.9566.33

1991M10105.32137.12-31.80150.83123.41179.39290.65-111.26319.71261.58-31.8079.4694.9573.8721.0881.2666.48170.33204.98-34.65225.48184.4855.73

1991M11103.59137.08-33.49150.79123.37182.18289.62-107.45318.59260.66-33.4973.9696.5373.9122.6381.3066.52175.86203.72-27.86224.10183.3550.49

1991M1299.21136.91-37.70150.60123.22187.91288.68-100.78317.55259.82-37.7063.07100.8074.0626.7481.4766.66189.41203.34-13.93223.68183.0140.67

1992M196.22136.15-39.93149.76122.53117.69286.14-168.46314.76257.53-39.93128.53103.9374.6229.3182.0867.16122.31201.16-78.85221.28181.05108.16

1992M294.82135.40-40.58148.94121.86114.55283.70-169.15312.07255.33-40.58128.57105.4675.1830.2782.7067.67120.80198.76-77.95218.63178.88108.23

1992M392.07134.59-42.52148.05121.13112.05281.06-169.01309.17252.96-42.52126.49108.6275.8132.8183.3968.23121.71196.36-74.66216.00176.73107.46

1992M489.86133.82-43.96147.20120.44110.70278.24-167.54306.06250.42-43.96123.58111.2876.4434.8584.0868.79123.19194.19-71.00213.61174.77105.85

1992M592.57133.05-40.48146.36119.75111.46275.15-163.69302.66247.63-40.48123.21108.0377.0430.9984.7469.33120.41191.56-71.15210.72172.40102.14

1992M692.71132.23-39.52145.46119.01112.31271.86-159.55299.05244.68-39.52120.03107.8677.6630.2085.4369.89121.14188.57-67.43207.43169.7197.63

1992M791.33131.49-40.16144.64118.34111.75268.76-157.01295.64241.89-40.1611

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Macroeconomic Coordination in Latin America: Some Lessons from the Mercosur Experience

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