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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
September 2013
Prepared by:
Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council
MacroeconomicEnvironment
U.S. Real GDP Growth
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9 Percent
U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price
2030405060708090
100110120130140150160 Dollars per Barrel
U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast
80110140170200230260290320350380410440 Cents per Gallon
Civilian Unemployment Rate
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 133.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5Percent
U.S. Federal Budget Surplus(CBO Projection)
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-1800
-1500
-1200
-900
-600
-300
0
300$ Billions
12-Aug 13-May
CBO Ag Baseline Spending
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18$ Billions
Upland Cotton Other Commodity Programs Conservation
Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries
World US India China-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Percent
2011 2012 2013 2014
Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)
Jan-97Mar May Jul Sep NovJan-04Mar May Jul Sep NovJan-11Mar May0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
Real Exchange Rate Index(Other Important Trade Partners)
Jan-
01 Jun
Nov Apr Sep
Feb Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan-
06 Jun
Nov Apr Sep
Feb Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan-
11 Jun
Nov Apr Sep
Feb Jul90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Federal Reserve
Ag Prices Received Index
Jan-95Apr Jul OctJan-00Apr Jul OctJan-05Apr Jul OctJan-10Apr Jul80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Crops Livestock
U.S. Net Farm Income
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140$ Billions
Market Government Emergency
U.S. Cotton Supply
December Cotton FuturesA
ug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
p
Oct
Nov Dec
30405060708090
100110120130140150160
Cents/Pound
December Corn FuturesA
ug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
p
Oct
Nov Dec
275325375425475525575625675725775825875
Cents/BushelDec-12
November Soybean FuturesA
ug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
p
Oct
Nov
580680780880980
1,0801,1801,2801,3801,4801,5801,6801,7801,880
Cents/BushelNov-12
2013 U.S. Cotton AreaThousand Acres
2012 Actual*
2013 Estimated* % Change
Southeast 2,748 2,653 -3.5Mid-South 2,030 1,235 -39.2Southwest 6,911 5,962 -13.7West 387 286 -26.1ALL UPLAND 12,076 10,136 -16.1ALL ELS 238 201 -15.5ALL COTTON 12,314 10,337 -16.1
* USDA
2013 U.S. Cotton AreaThousand Hectares
2012 Actual*
2013 Estimated* % Change
Southeast 1,112 1,074 -3.5Mid-South 822 500 -39.2Southwest 2,797 2,413 -13.7West 157 116 -26.1ALL UPLAND 4,887 4,102 -16.1ALL ELS 96 81 -15.5ALL COTTON 4,983 4,183 -16.1
* USDA
U.S. Cotton Production
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
0.0
0.9
1.7
2.6
3.5
4.4
5.2
6.1
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Supply
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0
1.1
2.2
3.3
4.4
5.4
6.5
7.6Beg Stocks Imports Production
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Demand
Net Domestic Fiber Consumption
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0.0
2.2
4.4
6.5
8.7
10.9
13.1Million Bale Equivalents
Cotton Other
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1235
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
Percent
U.S. Cotton Retail Consumption
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
2013
2012
Components of Retail Fiber Consumption
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
0.0
0.9
1.7
2.6
3.5
4.4
5.2
6.1Fiber Equivalents
Retail Imported
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Textile Imports
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
5
10
15
20
25
0.0
1.1
2.2
3.3
4.4
5.4Fiber Equivalents
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
0.0
0.7
1.3
2.0
2.6
3.3
3.9
4.6
5.2Fiber Equivalents
Non-U.S. Cotton ROW NAFTA CBI
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Product Trade with Mexico
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.7Imports Exports
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Product Trade with CBI
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.9Imports Exports
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Product Imports from China
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year)
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.2
2.6
Met
ric
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Marketing Year)
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.2
2.6
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Production & Use
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.0
1.1
2.2
3.3
4.4
5.4
6.5Exports Mill Use Production
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
The World Market& U.S. Cotton Exports
China Cotton Supply & Use
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.4
6.5
8.7
10.9
13.1
15.3Net Imports Production Use Stocks
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
World Cotton Production
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
25
50
75
100
125
150
0.0
5.4
10.9
16.3
21.8
27.2
32.7
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
World Fiber Mill Use
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0.0
4.4
8.7
13.1
17.4
21.8
26.1
30.5
34.9
39.2
43.6
47.9Cotton Polyester
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
*PCI
Fiber Prices
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250 Cents per PoundA FE Index Asian Polyester Staple
World Cotton Mill Use
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0.0
4.4
8.7
13.1
17.4
21.8
26.1
30.5
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
Foreign Cotton Production & Use
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
6.5
8.7
10.9
13.1
15.3
17.4
19.6
21.8
24.0
26.1
28.3
30.5Stocks Production Use
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
U.S. Cotton Exports
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.2
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.4
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
World Cotton Ending Stocks
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.0
2.2
4.4
6.5
8.7
10.9
13.1
15.3
17.4
19.6
21.8U.S. ROW China
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
Cotton Stocks/Use(World less China)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
43
52
44 44
6055
57 5761
47
5762
50 50
Percent
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.35 3.90Production 17.32 12.90Imports 0.01 0.01
Total Supply 20.68 16.81
Mill Use 3.50 3.50Exports 13.03 10.40
Total Offtake 16.53 13.90
Ending Stocks 3.90 2.90Stocks-to-Use Ratio 23.6% 20.9%
2012/13e 2013/14p
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks 0.73 0.85Production 3.77 2.81Imports 0.00 0.00
Total Supply 4.51 3.66
Mill Use 0.76 0.76Exports 2.84 2.27
Total Offtake 3.60 3.03
Ending Stocks 0.85 0.63Stocks-to-Use Ratio 23.6% 20.9%
2012/13e 2013/14p
World Supply and DemandMillion Bales
Beginning Stocks 71.77 86.04Production 121.04 117.42Imports 46.43 38.93
Mill Use 107.27 109.53Exports 46.74 38.96
Ending Stocks 86.04 94.73Stocks-to-Use Ratio 80.2% 86.5%
2012/13e 2013/14p
World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks 15.64 18.75Production 26.37 25.58Imports 10.12 8.48
Mill Use 23.37 23.86Exports 10.18 8.49
Ending Stocks 18.75 20.64Stocks-to-Use Ratio 80.2% 86.5%
2012/13e 2013/14p
MerchantsMerchantsGinnersGinners CottonseedCottonseed
ProducersProducers
CooperativesCooperatives
WarehousesWarehousesManufacturersManufacturers