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Macroeconomic policy 1992-onwardsNature and causes of inflation in 1992-1995. Cost-push versus demand pull- inflationDemonetization of the economy, barter, non-payments, money substitutesExchange rate based and money based stabilization Currency crisis in 1998Alternative explanations of the crisisMacroeconomic policy after the 1998 crisis
Inflation in Russia 1990-2005
Chart2
15
160
2510
840
215
131
21.8
11
84.4
36.5
20.2
18.6
15.1
12
11.7
10.9
2510
Annual inflation rates in Russia (December-to-December increase in CPI, log scale)
Sheet1
CPIDec. to Dec., % increase
199015
1991160
19922510
1993840
1994215
1995131
199621.8
199711
199884.4
199936.5
200020.2
200118.6
200215.1
200312
200411.7
200510.9
CPI, monthly rates
Jan-9517.8
Feb-9511
Mar-958.9
Apr-958.5
May-957.9
Jun-956.7
Jul-955.4
Aug-954.6
Sep-954.5
Oct-954.7
Nov-954.5
Dec-953.2
Jan-964.1
Feb-962.8
Mar-962.8
Apr-962.2
May-961.6
Jun-961.2
Jul-960.8
Aug-96-0.3
Sep-960.3
Oct-961.2
Nov-961.9
Dec-961.4
Jan-972.3
Feb-971.6
Mar-971.4
Apr-970.9
May-970.9
Jun-971.1
Jul-970.9
Aug-97-0.1
Sep-97-0.4
Oct-970.2
Nov-970.7
Dec-970.9
Jan-981.5
Feb-980.9
Mar-980.7
Apr-980.4
May-980.5
Jun-980.1
Jul-980.1
Aug-983.7
Sep-9838.4
Oct-98
Nov-98
Dec-98
GDP growth rates
1990-3
1991-5
1992-14.5
1993-8.7
1994-12.7
1995-4.1
1996-3.4
19970.9
1998-4.9
19995.4
20008.3
20015
20024.3
20037.3
20047
ExportsImportsTrade balanceCA balanceErrors & omissionsFOREX reserves, excluding gold, end of the periodDebt service paidExternal gov. debtGDP
1990378.8
199120.8
19921.9107.785.4
199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5
199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1
199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3
199690.567.423.112.1-8.111.2-7.3125429.2
199788.971.717.32.9-7.312.9-7.5135447
1998 (1st half)72.5714.3-12-5.311.2-7159.6450
1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6
1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6
1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7
1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5
1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2
1998/211.2
1998/38.5
Gov revExpDef
199244.265.8-21.6GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR
199336.143.3-7.20.2
199434.645-10.410.6
199532.237.7-5.576.657.79435.7
199626.135-8.9237.158.40775.74
199727.936.3-8.4384.90.374136
199824.530.4-5.9436138
GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP
19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.7
19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.81585
199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2
199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586
July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8
Table External indebtness in selected transition economies, Asian and Latin American countries, 1996, %
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689
Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454
Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65
Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346
Bosnia and Herzegovina53--000--
Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484
China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412
Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081
Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89
Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353
Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308
Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845
Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761
Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754
Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024
Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779
Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805
Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972
Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477
Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508
Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562
Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963
Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558
Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033
Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31
Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007
Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198
Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698
Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916
Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292
Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792
Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926
Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828
Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213
Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84
Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027
Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846
Sheet1
17.8
11
8.9
8.5
7.9
6.7
5.4
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.5
3.2
4.1
2.8
2.8
2.2
1.6
1.2
0.8
-0.3
0.3
1.2
1.9
1.4
2.3
1.6
1.4
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.9
-0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.7
0.9
1.5
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.1
3.7
38.4
36069
36100
36130
Monthly inflation
Sheet2
2510
Annual inflation rates in Russia (December-to-December increase in CPI, log scale)
Sheet3
9.52.1-5.219935.85.8
21.110.4-4.7-0.444
17.54.5-6.7-7.914.414.4
23.112.1-7.3-8.111.211.2
17.32.9-7.5-7.312.912.9
4.3-12-7-5.311.211.2
&A
Page &P
Trade balance
Current account
Debt service
Errors and omissions
Foreign exchange reserves*
*Year end,excluding gold
Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars
44.434.9
69.648.5
81.564
90.567.4
88.971.7
72.571
Export
Import
Trade surplus
(1st half)
Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars
65.844.2
43.336.1
4534.6
37.732.2
3526.1
36.327.9
30.424.5
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
(1st half)
Exp
Gov rev
Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
0.7357131161117.164286883944.5
2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8
7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4
9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732
12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5
Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks
Short-term debt held by CBR
External debt
CBR credits to the government
GKO-OFZ
CBR credits to the government
Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP
-3-3
-5-5
-14.5-14.5
-8.7-8.7
-12.7-12.7
-4.1-4.1
-3.4-3.4
0.90.9
-4.9-4.9
5.45.4
8.38.3
55
4.34.3
7.37.3
20047
Fig. 1. GDP growth rates in Russia, %, 1990-2004
4.21991
15.31.95
63.65.8
59.76.5
82.417.2
100.115.3
104.417.8
91.612.2
64.912.5
71.528
7534.5
8547.8
9576.9
100121.6
RER
FOREX
Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%
Fig. 8. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%, and gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $
-3-3
-5-5
-14.5-14.5
-8.7-8.7
-12.7-12.7
-4.1-4.1
-3.4-3.4
0.90.9
-4.9-4.9
5.45.4
8.38.3
55
4.34.3
7.37.3
20047
. 1. , %, 1990-2004
Inflation in 1992-1995Inflation as high as several hundred/thousand percent a year in most transition economiesInflation:Cost-push: caused by price rigidity, monopolization, costs growthDemand-pull: caused by money supply growth; MV=PY, if M, then P (monetary theory of inflation)In the beginning of 1990s many Russian economists believed that inflation in Russia was cost-push in nature, because of rigid prices (lack of competition, capital and labor cannot move freely between sectors)
Long term relationship between inflation and growth
Chart1
2.6
1.5
1.4
0.4
0.3
-0.7
-3.3
16
54
25
17
10
13
5
countries
Average annual growth rates of per capita GDP,%
Inflation
GDP per capita growth rates
Average annual growth rates of per capita GDP in 1975-95,%, in groups of countries with different inflation rates
Sheet1
InflationAverage annual growth rates of per capita GDP,%Average annual inflation, %
< 5%2.63.5
5-10%1.57.2
10-15%1.411.7
15-25%0.419.3
25-40%0.329.5
40-100%-0.753.8
>100%-3.3243.5
Sheet1
16
54
25
17
10
13
5
countries
Average annual growth rates of per capita GDP,%
Inflation
GDP per capita growth rates
Average annual growth rates of per capita GDP in 1975-95,%, in groups of countries with different inflation rates
Sheet2
Sheet3
Negative relationship between growth and inflation for the long term
Chart2
-3-315
-5-5160
-14.5-14.52510
-8.7-8.7840
-12.7-12.7215
-4.1-4.1131
-3.4-3.421.8
0.90.911
-4.9-4.984.4
5.45.436.5
8.38.320.2
5518.6
4.34.315.1
7.37.312
7.27.211.7
6.4200510.9
GDP growth rates
Inflation (CPI, Dec. to Dec.)
CPI
GDP growth rates and inflation (right axis, log scale) in Russia, %, 1990-2005
Sheet1
CPIDec. to Dec., % increase
199015
1991160
19922510
1993840
1994215
1995131
199621.8
199711
199884.4
199936.5
200020.2
200118.6
200215.1
200312
200411.7
200510.9
CPI, monthly rates
Jan-9517.8
Feb-9511
Mar-958.9
Apr-958.5
May-957.9
Jun-956.7
Jul-955.4
Aug-954.6
Sep-954.5
Oct-954.7
Nov-954.5
Dec-953.2
Jan-964.1
Feb-962.8
Mar-962.8
Apr-962.2
May-961.6
Jun-961.2
Jul-960.8
Aug-96-0.3
Sep-960.3
Oct-961.2
Nov-961.9
Dec-961.4
Jan-972.3
Feb-971.6
Mar-971.4
Apr-970.9
May-970.9
Jun-971.1
Jul-970.9
Aug-97-0.1
Sep-97-0.4
Oct-970.2
Nov-970.7
Dec-970.9
Jan-981.5
Feb-980.9
Mar-980.7
Apr-980.4
May-980.5
Jun-980.1
Jul-980.1
Aug-983.7
Sep-9838.4
Oct-98
Nov-98
Dec-98
GDP growth rates
1990-3
1991-5
1992-14.5
1993-8.7
1994-12.7
1995-4.1
1996-3.4
19970.9
1998-4.9
19995.4
20008.3
20015
20024.3
20037.3
20047.2
20056.4
ExportsImportsTrade balanceCA balanceErrors & omissionsFOREX reserves, excluding gold, end of the periodDebt service paidExternal gov. debtGDP
1990378.8
199120.8
19921.9107.785.4
199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5
199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1
199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3
199690.567.423.112.1-8.111.2-7.3125429.2
199788.971.717.32.9-7.312.9-7.5135447
1998 (1st half)72.5714.3-12-5.311.2-7159.6450
1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6
1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6
1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7
1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5
1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2
1998/211.2
1998/38.5
Gov revExpDef
199244.265.8-21.6GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR
199336.143.3-7.20.2
199434.645-10.410.6
199532.237.7-5.576.657.79435.7
199626.135-8.9237.158.40775.74
199727.936.3-8.4384.90.374136
199824.530.4-5.9436138
GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP
19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.7
19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.81585
199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2
199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586
July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8
Table External indebtness in selected transition economies, Asian and Latin American countries, 1996, %
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689
Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454
Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65
Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346
Bosnia and Herzegovina53--000--
Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484
China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412
Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081
Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89
Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353
Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308
Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845
Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761
Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754
Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024
Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779
Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805
Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972
Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477
Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508
Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562
Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963
Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558
Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033
Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31
Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007
Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198
Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698
Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916
Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292
Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792
Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926
Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828
Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213
Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84
Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027
Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846
Sheet1
17.8
11
8.9
8.5
7.9
6.7
5.4
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.5
3.2
4.1
2.8
2.8
2.2
1.6
1.2
0.8
-0.3
0.3
1.2
1.9
1.4
2.3
1.6
1.4
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.9
-0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.7
0.9
1.5
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.1
3.7
38.4
36069
36100
36130
Monthly inflation
Sheet2
15
160
2510
840
215
131
21.8
11
84.4
36.5
20.2
18.6
15.1
12
11.7
10.9
2510
Figure 2. Annual inflation rates in Russia (December-to-December increase in CPI, log scale)
Sheet3
9.52.1-5.219935.85.8
21.110.4-4.7-0.444
17.54.5-6.7-7.914.414.4
23.112.1-7.3-8.111.211.2
17.32.9-7.5-7.312.912.9
4.3-12-7-5.311.211.2
&A
Page &P
Trade balance
Current account
Debt service
Errors and omissions
Foreign exchange reserves*
*Year end,excluding gold
Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars
44.434.9
69.648.5
81.564
90.567.4
88.971.7
72.571
Export
Import
Trade surplus
(1st half)
Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars
65.844.2
43.336.1
4534.6
37.732.2
3526.1
36.327.9
30.424.5
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
(1st half)
Exp
Gov rev
Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
0.7357131161117.164286883944.5
2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8
7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4
9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732
12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5
Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks
Short-term debt held by CBR
External debt
CBR credits to the government
GKO-OFZ
CBR credits to the government
Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP
-3-3
-5-5
-14.5-14.5
-8.7-8.7
-12.7-12.7
-4.1-4.1
-3.4-3.4
0.90.9
-4.9-4.9
5.45.4
8.38.3
55
4.34.3
7.37.3
7.27.2
6.42005
Fig. 1. GDP growth rates in Russia, %, 1990-2004
4.21991
15.31.95
63.65.8
59.76.5
82.417.2
100.115.3
104.417.8
91.612.2
64.912.5
71.528
7534.5
8547.8
9576.9
100121.6
RER
FOREX
Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%
Fig. 8. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%, and gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $
. 1. , %, 1990-2004
GDP growth rates
Inflation (CPI, Dec. to Dec.)
CPI
GDP growth rates and inflation (right axis, log scale) in Russia, %, 1990-2005
Monetary expansion first (18 months) leads to the expansion of output, then - to the acceleration of inflation
Chart3
5.71
2.70
80
2.70.396039604
6.9-0.1972386588
-1.62.9644268775
5.62.6871401152
10.23.9252336449
7.35.5755395683
61.7035775128
5.7-0.5025125628
9.61.0101010101
10.92.1666666667
15.211.0929853181
12.64.845814978
8.55.4621848739
11.212.7490039841
10.78.7161366313
4.18.3423618635
2.75.1
10.69.5147478592
14.314.5091225022
13.519.6509863429
12.813.1896005073
10.55.9383753501
9.60.7403490217
8.8-2.3622047244
7.8-2.1505376344
7.10.9340659341
7.90
7.3-0.8
81.2
9.1
GDP growth
GDP deflator
GDP growth rates (lagged one year) and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year
Sheet1
GDP growthGDP deflator
GDP growthGDP deflator19711.83299389
19715.71.8329938919725.71
19722.711.8329938919732.70
1973801197480
19742.70019752.70.396039604
19756.90.396039604019766.9-0.1972386588
1976-1.6-0.19723865880.3960396041977-1.62.9644268775
19775.62.9644268775-0.197238658819785.62.6871401152
197810.22.68714011522.9644268775197910.23.9252336449
19797.33.92523364492.687140115219807.35.5755395683
198065.57553956833.9252336449198161.7035775128
19815.71.70357751285.575539568319825.7-0.5025125628
19829.6-0.50251256281.703577512819839.61.0101010101
198310.91.0101010101-0.5025125628198410.92.1666666667
198415.22.16666666671.0101010101198515.211.0929853181
198512.611.09298531812.1666666667198612.64.845814978
19868.54.84581497811.092985318119878.55.4621848739
198711.25.46218487394.845814978198811.212.7490039841
198810.712.74900398415.4621848739198910.78.7161366313
19894.18.716136631312.749003984119904.18.3423618635
19902.78.34236186358.716136631319912.75.1
199110.65.18.3423618635199210.69.5147478592
199214.39.51474785925.1199314.314.5091225022
199313.514.50912250229.5147478592199413.519.6509863429
199412.819.650986342914.5091225022199512.813.1896005073
199510.513.189600507319.6509863429199610.55.9383753501
19969.65.938375350113.189600507319979.60.7403490217
19978.80.74034902175.938375350119988.8-2.3622047244
19987.8-2.36220472440.740349021719997.8-2.1505376344
19997.1-2.1505376344-2.362204724420007.10.9340659341
20007.90.9340659341-2.150537634420017.90
20017.300.934065934120027.3-0.8
20028-0.80200381.2
20039.11.2-0.89.1
1.2
Sheet1
GDP growth
GDP deflator
GDP growth rates and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year
Sheet2
GDP growth
GDP deflator
GDP growth rates (lagged one year) and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year
Sheet3
GDP deflator
Growth
inflation
Inflation (GDP deflator) and growth rates in China in 1971-2003, %
Country or AreaPeriodGDP Index at current pricesGDP Index at constant pricesImplicit Price Deflator
Click here to chart table
Click here to chart table197012.325.149.1Infl
China
197113.226.5501.83299389
197213.727.250.51
197314.929.450.50
197415.230.250.50
197516.432.350.70.396039604
197616.131.850.6-0.1972386588
197717.533.552.12.9644268775
197819.83753.52.6871401152
19792239.755.63.9252336449
198024.74258.75.5755395683
198126.544.459.71.7035775128
198228.948.759.4-0.5025125628
198332.454601.0101010101
198438.162.261.32.1666666667
198547.77068.111.0929853181
198654.27671.44.845814978
198763.684.575.35.4621848739
198879.493.584.912.7490039841
198989.997.492.38.7161366313
19901001001008.3423618635
1991116.2110.6105.15.1
1992145.4126.3115.19.5147478592
1993189.1143.4131.814.5091225022
1994255.2161.8157.719.6509863429
1995319.2178.9178.513.1896005073
1996370.6196189.15.9383753501
1997406.5213.3190.50.7403490217
1998427.7230186-2.3622047244
1999448246.2182-2.1505376344
2000488.2265.7183.70.9340659341
2001523.7285.1183.70
Click here to chart table
Click here to chart table
China
Phillips curve - negative short term relationship between inflation and unemployment (positive - between inflation and growth)
Chart2
1.83299389
1
0
0
0.396039604
-0.1972386588
2.9644268775
2.6871401152
3.9252336449
5.5755395683
1.7035775128
-0.5025125628
1.0101010101
2.1666666667
11.0929853181
4.845814978
5.4621848739
12.7490039841
8.7161366313
8.3423618635
5.1
9.5147478592
14.5091225022
19.6509863429
13.1896005073
5.9383753501
0.7403490217
-2.3622047244
-2.1505376344
0.9340659341
0
-0.8
1.2
GDP deflator
Growth
inflation
Inflation (GDP deflator) and growth rates in China in 1971-2003, %
Sheet1
GDP growthGDP deflator
GDP growthGDP deflator19711.83299389
19715.71.8329938919725.71
19722.711.8329938919732.70
1973801197480
19742.70019752.70.396039604
19756.90.396039604019766.9-0.1972386588
1976-1.6-0.19723865880.3960396041977-1.62.9644268775
19775.62.9644268775-0.197238658819785.62.6871401152
197810.22.68714011522.9644268775197910.23.9252336449
19797.33.92523364492.687140115219807.35.5755395683
198065.57553956833.9252336449198161.7035775128
19815.71.70357751285.575539568319825.7-0.5025125628
19829.6-0.50251256281.703577512819839.61.0101010101
198310.91.0101010101-0.5025125628198410.92.1666666667
198415.22.16666666671.0101010101198515.211.0929853181
198512.611.09298531812.1666666667198612.64.845814978
19868.54.84581497811.092985318119878.55.4621848739
198711.25.46218487394.845814978198811.212.7490039841
198810.712.74900398415.4621848739198910.78.7161366313
19894.18.716136631312.749003984119904.18.3423618635
19902.78.34236186358.716136631319912.75.1
199110.65.18.3423618635199210.69.5147478592
199214.39.51474785925.1199314.314.5091225022
199313.514.50912250229.5147478592199413.519.6509863429
199412.819.650986342914.5091225022199512.813.1896005073
199510.513.189600507319.6509863429199610.55.9383753501
19969.65.938375350113.189600507319979.60.7403490217
19978.80.74034902175.938375350119988.8-2.3622047244
19987.8-2.36220472440.740349021719997.8-2.1505376344
19997.1-2.1505376344-2.362204724420007.10.9340659341
20007.90.9340659341-2.150537634420017.90
20017.300.934065934120027.3-0.8
20028-0.80200381.2
20039.11.2-0.89.1
1.2
Sheet1
GDP growth
GDP deflator
GDP growth rates and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year
Sheet2
GDP growth
GDP deflator
GDP growth rates (lagged one year) and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year
Sheet3
GDP deflator
Growth
inflation
Inflation (GDP deflator) and growth rates in China in 1971-2003, %
Country or AreaPeriodGDP Index at current pricesGDP Index at constant pricesImplicit Price Deflator
Click here to chart table
Click here to chart table197012.325.149.1Infl
China
197113.226.5501.83299389
197213.727.250.51
197314.929.450.50
197415.230.250.50
197516.432.350.70.396039604
197616.131.850.6-0.1972386588
197717.533.552.12.9644268775
197819.83753.52.6871401152
19792239.755.63.9252336449
198024.74258.75.5755395683
198126.544.459.71.7035775128
198228.948.759.4-0.5025125628
198332.454601.0101010101
198438.162.261.32.1666666667
198547.77068.111.0929853181
198654.27671.44.845814978
198763.684.575.35.4621848739
198879.493.584.912.7490039841
198989.997.492.38.7161366313
19901001001008.3423618635
1991116.2110.6105.15.1
1992145.4126.3115.19.5147478592
1993189.1143.4131.814.5091225022
1994255.2161.8157.719.6509863429
1995319.2178.9178.513.1896005073
1996370.6196189.15.9383753501
1997406.5213.3190.50.7403490217
1998427.7230186-2.3622047244
1999448246.2182-2.1505376344
2000488.2265.7183.70.9340659341
2001523.7285.1183.70
Click here to chart table
Click here to chart table
China
Chart4
12.614-7.1
15.6151.5
28.9261.1
17.223.7-0.4
15.120-5.9
14.122.31.1
1716.3-3.4
10.19.6-0.5
6.86-1.3
15.392.7
8160
59-0.9
*Lagged 4 months.
M3 (left scale)
Prices (left scale)*
Industrial output (right scale)*
Average monthly growth rates of money supply (M3), prices and industrial output by quarters, %
Sheet1
CPIDec. to Dec., % increaseTrade debts to enterprisesTrade arrears to enterprisesArrears/debts ratio, %Trade arrears of enterprisesAll arrears of enterprises
1990156/1/9221212257.5471698113
19911607/1/9224415061.4754098361
199225108/1/9225115260.5577689243
19938409/1/9219512162.0512820513
199422010/1/921057268.5714285714
199513011/1/921567749.358974359
199621.812/1/921406546.4285714286
1997111/1/931446243.0555555556
19981002/1/931285442.1875
1999803/1/931134539.8230088496
CPI, monthly rates4/1/931254737.6
J-9517.85/1/931406042.8571428571
F-95116/1/931355742.2222222222
M-958.97/1/931315340.4580152672
A-958.58/1/931315541.9847328244
M-957.99/1/931395841.726618705
J-956.710/1/931446041.6666666667
J-955.411/1/931566742.9487179487
A-954.612/1/931607245
S-954.51/1/941939448.7046632124
O-954.72/1/942069948.0582524272
N-954.53/1/942001005093
D-953.24/1/9423211850.8620689655108
J-964.15/1/9424813052.4193548387147
F-962.86/1/9425313653.7549407115100144
M-962.87/1/9427514954.1818181818108164
A-962.28/1/9426614353.7593984962106160
M-961.69/1/9426215057.2519083969110166
J-961.210/1/9423414160.2564102564106163
J-960.811/1/9422113259.7285067873100157
A-96-0.312/1/949982128
S-960.31/1/959681131
O-961.22/1/959271129
N-961.93/1/957859111
D-961.44/1/958163119
J-972.35/1/958463126
F-971.66/1/957659117
M-971.47/1/959671142
A-970.98/1/958770137
M-970.99/1/959168144
J-971.110/1/958665138
J-970.911/1/959473156
A-97-0.112/1/958870148
S-97-0.41/1/96
O-970.22/1/96
N-970.73/1/96
D-970.94/1/96134157227
J-981.5
F-980.9
M-980.7
A-980.4
M-980.5M3 (left scale)Prices (left scale)*Industrial output (right scale)*
J-980.11Q199212.614.0-7.1
J-980.12Q199215.615.01.5
A-983.73Q199228.926.01.1
S-9838.44Q199217.223.7-0.4
O-984.51Q199315.120.0-5.9
N-985.72Q199314.122.31.1
D-9811.63Q199317.016.3-3.4
J-998.54Q199310.19.6-0.5
F-994.51Q19946.86.0-1.3
M-992.72Q199415.39.02.7
A-993.13Q19948.016.00.0
M-992.34Q19945.09.0-0.9
Sheet1
1
Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %
Sheet2
1
2510
Forecast
Figure 3. Annual (December-to-December) inflation rates in Russia
Sheet3
Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %
%
Fig. 4. Monthly inflation rates, %
2510
Forecast
Figure 1. Annual (December-to-December) inflation rates in Russia
*Lagged 4 months.
M3 (left scale)
Prices (left scale)*
Industrial output (right scale)*
Average monthly growth rates of money supply (M3), prices and industrial output by quarters, %
Trade debts to enterprises
Trade arrears to enterprises
Arrears/debts ratio, %
Trade arrears of enterprises
All arrears of enterprises
%
Trade debts and trade arrears of industrial enterprises, as a % of monthly industrial output
1995=100%
1996.197
1996.296.5
1996.396.8
1996.496.8
1996.596.7
1996.695.2
1996.795.5
1996.894.8
1996.995.6
1996.1096.2
1996.1195.2
1996.1295.6
1997.197.1998586184
1997.298.0834936967
1997.397.2980402938
1997.498.2798570475
1997.596.9053135923
1997.697.7889486706
1997.798.5744020736
1997.897.7889486706
1997.997.887130346
1997.1098.672583749
1997.1199.6544005027
1997.12100.1453088796
1998.198.672583749
1998.299.4580371519
1998.398.3780387229
1998.499.0653104505
1998.594.8434984095
1998.695.3344067863
1998.789.2471429132
1998.886.4980560028
1998.983.650787417
1998.1087.6762361073
1998.1190.5235046931
1998.1293.5671366296
1999.193.7634999804
1999.295.7271334878
1999.399.7525821781
1999.4100.538035581
1999.5100.64
1999.6
99.07
Devaluation
1996.1 1996.2 1996.3 1996.4 1996.5 1996.6 1996.7 1996.8 1996.9 1996.10 1996.11 1996.12 1997.1 1997.2 1997.3 1997.4 1997.5 1997.6 1997.7 1997.8 1997.9 1997.10 1997.11 1997.12 1998.1 1998.2 1998.3 1998.4 1998.5 1998.6 1998.7 1998.8 1998.9 1998.10 1998.11 19
Fig. 12. Index of industrial output, seasonally adjusted, 1995 = 100%
Inflation in Russia 1995-2000
Chart2
17.8
11
8.9
8.5
7.9
6.7
5.4
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.5
3.2
4.1
2.8
2.8
2.2
1.6
1.2
0.8
-0.3
0.3
1.2
1.9
1.4
2.3
1.6
1.4
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.9
-0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.7
0.9
1.5
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.1
3.7
38.4
4.5
5.7
11.6
8.4
4.1051660517
2.7913159061
3.0172413793
2.2426778243
1.8988377803
2.8112449799
1.171875
1.46566
1.36194
1.22149
1.24698
2.34406
1.04813
0.65309
0.83069
1.7411
2.56696
1.81356
0.96188
Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %
%
Fig. 4. Monthly inflation rates, %
Sheet1
CPIDec. to Dec., % increaseTrade debts to enterprisesTrade arrears to enterprisesArrears/debts ratio, %Trade arrears of enterprisesAll arrears of enterprises
1990156/1/9221212257.5471698113
19911607/1/9224415061.4754098361
199225108/1/9225115260.5577689243
19938409/1/9219512162.0512820513
199422010/1/921057268.5714285714
199513011/1/921567749.358974359
199621.812/1/921406546.4285714286
1997111/1/931446243.0555555556
199884.42/1/931285442.1875
199936.53/1/931134539.8230088496
2000184/1/931254737.6
CPI, monthly rates5/1/931406042.8571428571
J-9517.86/1/931355742.2222222222
F-95117/1/931315340.4580152672
M-958.98/1/931315541.9847328244
A-958.59/1/931395841.726618705
M-957.910/1/931446041.6666666667
J-956.711/1/931566742.9487179487
J-955.412/1/931607245
A-954.61/1/941939448.7046632124
S-954.52/1/942069948.0582524272
O-954.73/1/942001005093
N-954.54/1/9423211850.8620689655108
D-953.25/1/9424813052.4193548387147
J-964.16/1/9425313653.7549407115100144
F-962.87/1/9427514954.1818181818108164
M-962.88/1/9426614353.7593984962106160
A-962.29/1/9426215057.2519083969110166
M-961.610/1/9423414160.2564102564106163
J-961.211/1/9422113259.7285067873100157
J-960.812/1/949982128
A-96-0.31/1/959681131
S-960.32/1/959271129
O-961.23/1/957859111
N-961.94/1/958163119
D-961.45/1/958463126
J-972.36/1/957659117
F-971.67/1/959671142
M-971.48/1/958770137
A-970.99/1/959168144
M-970.910/1/958665138
J-971.111/1/959473156
J-970.912/1/958870148
A-97-0.11/1/96
S-97-0.42/1/96
O-970.23/1/96
N-970.74/1/96134157227
D-970.9
J-981.5
F-980.9
M-980.7
A-980.4
M-980.5
J-980.1
J-980.1
A-983.7
S-9838.4
O-984.5
N-985.7
D-9811.6
J-998.4
F-994.1051660517
M-992.7913159061
A-993.0172413793
M-992.2426778243
J-981.8988377803
J-982.8112449799
A-991.171875
S-991.46566
O-991.36194M3 (left scale)Prices (left scale)*Industrial output (right scale)*
N-991.221491Q199212.614.0-7.1
D-991.246982Q199215.615.01.5
J-002.344063Q199228.926.01.1
F-001.04813
M-000.65309
A-000.83069
M-001.7411
J-002.56696
J-001.81356
A-000.96188
S-00
GDP growth rates
1990-3
1991-5
1992-14.5
1993-8.7
1994-12.74Q199217.223.7-0.4
1995-4.11Q199315.120.0-5.9
1996-4.92Q199314.122.31.1
19970.63Q199317.016.3-3.4
1998-54Q199310.19.6-0.5
19993.21Q19946.86.0-1.3
200072Q199415.39.02.7
3Q19948.016.00.0
4Q19945.09.0-0.9
ExportsImportsTrade balanceCA balanceErrors & omissionsFOREX reserves, excluding gold, end of the periodDebt service paidExternal gov. debtGDP
1990378.8
199120.8
19921.9107.785.4
199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5
199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1
199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3
199690.567.423.112.1-8.411.2-7.3125429.2
199788.971.717.53.6-7.612.9-7.5135447
1998 (1st half)73.568.94.6-11.7-6.811.2-8.2159.6450
1998 (2nd half)7154171-77.8-6
1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6
1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6
1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7
1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5
1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2
1998/211.2
1998/38.5
Gov revExpDef
199244.265.8-21.6
199336.143.3-7.2
199434.645-10.4
199532.237.7-5.5
199626.135-8.9
199727.936.3-8.4
199824.530.4-5.9
GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR
GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP0.2
19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.710.6
19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.8158576.657.79435.7
199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2237.158.40775.74
199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586384.90.374136
July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8436138
Table External indebtness in selected transition economies, Asian and Latin American countries, 1996, %
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689
Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454
Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65
Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346
Bosnia and Herzegovina53--000--
Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484
China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412
Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081
Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89
Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353
Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308
Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845
Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761
Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754
Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024
Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779
Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805
Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972
Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477
Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508
Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562
Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963
Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558
Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033
Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31
Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007
Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198
Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698
Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916
Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292
Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792
Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926
Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828
Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213
Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84
Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027
Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846
Sheet1
1
Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %
Sheet2
1
2510
Forecast
Figure 3. Annual (December-to-December) inflation rates in Russia
Sheet3
1
Forecast
Figure 5. Russia's GDP growth rates, %
111111
&A
Page &P
Trade balance
Current account
Debt service
Errors and omissions
Foreign exchange reserves*
*End of period,excluding gold
Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars
11
Export
Import
Trade surplus
Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars
11
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
(1st half)
#REF!
#REF!
Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
1111
Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks
Short-term debt held by CBR
External debt
CBR credits to the government
#REF!
#REF!
Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP
Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %
%
Fig. 4. Monthly inflation rates, %
2510
Forecast
Figure 3. Annual inflation rates in Russia (CPI, December-to-December increase)
Figure 5. Russia's GDP growth rates, %
&A
Page &P
Trade balance
Current account
Debt service
Errors and omissions
Foreign exchange reserves*
*End of period,excluding gold
*End of the period, excluding gold.
Trade balance
Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars
Export
Import
Trade surplus
Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars
65.844.2
43.336.1
4534.6
37.732.2
3526.1
36.327.9
30.424.5
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
(1st half)
Exp
Gov rev
Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
0.7357131161117.164286883944.5
2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8
7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4
9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732
12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5
Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks
Short-term debt held by CBR
External debt
CBR credits to the government
CBR credits to the government
CBR credits to the government
GKO held by CBR
Domestic nonGKO debt
External debt
Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
*Lagged 4 months.
M3 (left scale)
Prices (left scale)*
Industrial output (right scale)*
Fig. 2. Average monthly growth rates of money supply (M3), prices and industrial output by quarters, %
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Trade debts to enterprises
Trade arrears to enterprises
Arrears/debts ratio, %
Trade arrears of enterprises
All arrears of enterprises
%
Fig. 3. Trade debts and trade arrears of industrial enterprises, as a % of monthly industrial output
Stock prices $ indices, Dec. 1993=100%
Czech RepublicHungaryPolandRussia
D-199268.24790
J-1993
F-1993
M-1993
A-1993
M-1993
J-1993
J-1993
A-1993
S-1993
O-1993
N-1993
D-1993100100100100
J-1994100100
F-1994117.2109
M-1994137.9144.1134.1
A-1994114.8126.994.7
M-1994102.4123.295.6
J-199496.4114.560.9
J-199494.1116.578.3
A-199498.5127.395.2
S-199494114.664.6
O-199489.4119.564.1
N-199480.5108.148.5
D-199472.3103.953.3313
J-199569.782.143.4
F-199567.184.545.7
M-199562.483.551.4
A-199561.287.268.1188.4
M-199559.983.653.5231.3
J-199556.593.762.4261.1
J-199558.693.361.3299.3
A-199560.593.161.8247.6
S-199565.8100.950.6255.1
O-199564.389.655.4215.6
N-199559.58955.3205.3
D-199573.289.653.8216
J-199662.599.661.7224.4
F-199679.2115.770201.5
M-199684.2137.477.6203.1
A-199686.9145.482.3247.6
M-199691.3160.680.9280
J-199690.7172.989.2501.2
J-199692.4165.881.6350.2
A-199697.3168.579.9439.4
S-199697.8188.193.3423.4
O-199694.3188.691.8403.4
N-199686.5190.984.9429.9
D-199686.6194.485459.2
J-199790.5209.287.4485.5
F-199793.3250.699.4803.6
M-199783.7226.988.9737.5
A-199779.8238.786.7697.4
M-199766.9254.982.1825.6
J-199769270.881.6919.3
J-199764.3296.872.91077.7
A-199768.4297.879.71300
S-199771.8307.286.71204
O-199775.4314.388.21303.7
N-199758.5268.569.8800.4
D-199759.2308.366.9990.5
J-199856.8283.267.7815.5
F-199862.2298.979.5761.5
M-199864.2307.988.6790.5
A-199859.9303.383.5643.4
M-199862.327382.1573.3
J-199854254.972.7375.1
J-199862.626982.5378.4
A-199858231.167.2159
S-199851.1147.856.557.1
O-199849.8145.349.943.2
N-199854.5208.760.248.5
D-19985321454.341.6
J-199953238.963.536.6
F-199944.820755.741.8
CzechHungPolRus
&A
Page &P
Fig. 10. Dollar stock prices indices, Dec. 1993 = 100%
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Russia
Price ratioPr ratio-foreCons pricesExch. rateCons pr-foreExch rate-foreExch rate corridor
12/199437.2100100
1/199538.1704347826118115
2/199538.3716535433131127
3/199538.0028776978142139
4/199539.5089655172154145
5/199543.7492957746167142
6/199551.3302325581178129
7/199555.2095238095187126123.3140.5
8/199557.8666666667196126123.3140.5
9/199559.578125205128123.3140.5
10/199562215129123.3140.5
11/199563.6091603053224131123.3140.5
12/199565.6636363636233132123.3140.5
1/199667.8410526316242.55133130.4147.6
2/199669.219761194249.34134130.4147.6
3/199670.6331555556256.33135130.4147.6
4/199670.618261.97138130.4147.6
5/199670.7225142857266.16140130.4147.6
6/199670.0686713287269.35143130.4147.6
7/199669.0493150685271146143.3160.5
8/199666.984717608271150.5
9/199666.2281967213271.5152.5
10/199666.213592233275154.5
11/199666.5559105431280156.5
12/199668.4532692551291158.14157.6174.8
1/199769.285298160
2/199769.5628482972302161.5
3/199770.063803681307163
4/199770.3170731707310164
5/199770.598540146312164.4
6/199771.4167679222316164.6316164.6
7/199771.486746988319166
8/199771.5128358209322167.5
9/199771.6485207101325.5169
10/199771.7818181818329170.5
11/199771.8046511628332172
12/199771.8270893372335173.5164.76181.96
PricesEX-ratePrice ratioCorrCorrPricesExch ratePrice ratio
Dec. 199410010037.2
Dec. 199523313265.6636363636123.3140.5
Dec. 1996291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8
Dec. 1997317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429
Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818
Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079
Dec. 200015120537518077.5
1995=100%
1996.197
1996.296.5
1996.396.8
1996.496.8
1996.596.7
1996.695.2
1996.795.5
1996.894.8
1996.995.6
1996.1096.2
1996.1195.2
1996.1295.6
1997.197.1998586184
1997.298.0834936967
1997.397.2980402938
1997.498.2798570475
1997.596.9053135923
1997.697.7889486706
1997.798.5744020736
1997.897.7889486706
1997.997.887130346
1997.1098.672583749
1997.1199.6544005027
1997.12100.1453088796
1998.198.672583749
1998.299.4580371519
1998.398.3780387229
1998.499.0653104505
1998.594.8434984095
1998.695.3344067863
1998.789.2471429132
1998.886.4980560028
1998.983.650787417
1998.1087.6762361073
1998.1190.5235046931
1998.1293.5671366296
1999.193.7634999804
1999.295.7271334878
1999.399.7525821781
1999.497.061704211699.1
1999.599.6082272282101.7
1999.6101.5670910872103.7
1999.7103.0362389814105.2
1999.8104.4074436827106.6
1999.9104.9951028404107.2
1999.10100.0979431929102.2
1999.11103.5259549461105.7
1999.12103.4280117532105.6
2000.1105.582761998107.8
2000.2107.541625857109.8
2000.3106.4642507346108.7
2000.4102.3506366308104.5
2000.5109.3046033301111.6
2000.6110.2840352595112.6
2000.7111.361410382113.7
2000.8115.05695
2000.9112.5547
2000.10
2000.11
PolandChinaUSSR/Russia
19851989199519781985199419891996
"Ordinary government"15.113.215.48.99.78.222.316.4
Investment5.63.4314.97.52.121.87.7
Subsidies15.310.12.93.25.91.5
Defence31.81.84.72.21.28.12.8
Debt service50.50.51.12
Total3928.528.132.225.814.152.228.9
11111111
Consumer prices
Exchange rate
Exchange rate
corridor
Forecast (assuming
1% monthly inflation)
Ratio of Russian to US prices
Fig. . Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%, right scale) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars, left scale)
Fig. 4. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)
Proclaimed targets
Ratio of Russian to US prices,%
Exchange rate
Exchange rate
corridor
Exchange rate
Exchange rate
CPI
Fig. 6. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)
Devaluation
Fig. 12. Index of industrial output, seasonally adjusted, 1995 = 100%
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
&F
Page &P
POLAND
CHINA
USSR/ RUSSIA
"Ordinary government"
Investment
Subsidies
Defence
Debt service
Fig. 13. Government expenditure, % of GDP
Attempts to fight inflation in RussiaFirst half of 1992 (Gaidar). Growth of money supply was restricted; inflation fell to 10% a month in summer 1992; as a consequence, massive non-payments emergedFirst half of 1994 (Chernomyrdin). Tightening monetary policy allowed to bring down inflation to 5% a month in summer 1994; again, non-payments increasedmid 1995: exchange rate based stabilization; inflation brought down to 6% a year (July 1998 to July 1997); currency crisis in August 1998, acceleration of inflation1999 - onwards - money based stabilization
Why fight inflation?High inflation damages financial markets, as risk-free assets disappearEmpirical evidence: high inflation (more than 40% per year) is bad for growth (e.g. Michael Bruno and William Easterly)But if inflation rates are moderate, then attempts to reduce inflation may negatively affect the economy
DemonetizationWhen inflation is high, alternative costs of keeping money balances are high money demand is lowMoney velocity is highMonetization=1/money velocity. Monetization is lower whenever inflation is higherCagan effect - reduction of demand for real cash balances during hyperinflation
Chart3
48
10
63
61
83
23
43
12
18
25
23
11
26
32
20
12
62
32
1167
14
11
26.3
896.6
9
22
2280.2
397.9
399.1
LBANIA
BULGARIA
CHINA
CZECH REPUBLIC
HUNGARY
POLAND
SLOVAKIA
SLOVENIA
FSU states, Rumania, Mongolia
Inflation, average level in 1990-95, log scale
M2 as a % of GDP in 1995
Inflation and monetization in transition economies
Sheet1
DateInflation CPI (%)End of month exchange rate (MICEX) R/$Nom exch rateNominal exchange rate, R/S, left scaleNominal exchange rate, $/RConsumer price index, left scaleReal exchange rate, right scaleReal exchange rate (monthly average) Dec-94 =100 , % , , % , , % Share of enterprises in good or normal conditions, industry (%) "" , %
Jan 1990$/RFebr1992=100%Febr1992=100%Febr1992=100%end of the month
Feb 1990Febr1992=100%
Mar 1990
Apr 1990
May 1990
Jun 1990
Jul 1990
Aug 1990
Sep 1990
Oct 1990
Nov 1990
Dec 1990
Jan 19911259.4949671572
Feb 19911634.8662118849
Mar 19911624.3645567955
Apr 19910.0371971.8441347912
May 19910.03791025.0316098797
Jun 19910.0421081.5953198279
Jul 19910.051393.4782735995
Aug 19910.05191378.286533635
Sep 19910.0561447.7070731127
Oct 19910.07311622.6623489175
Nov 19910.112513.6262625391
Dec 19910.16923353.6441419616
Jan 19920.231202.5240527574
Feb 199237.99594555460.1397.1942446043100.000005599.999994510099.9999945822.04323691188
Mar 199229.90556138510.16036.2383031815115.3237473586.7124094541129.9055613851112.644242292519.61906320936
Apr 199221.69628432960.14366.9637883008103.309358296.7966520578158.0902413431153.0260608502431.68049626535
May 199211.89433160760.1138.849557522181.2949685123.008842792176.8940188877217.5952856021310.70311094424
Jun 199219.1007236920.1446.9444444444103.59712896.5277724688210.6820566632203.3666962883267.06374337915
Jul 199210.59866520570.16126.2034739454115.971229486.2282830986233.0115424974200.9218525171275.45823984236
Aug 19928.60127893360.2054.8780487805147.482022567.8048743195253.0535152151171.5826179527298.23935886199
Sep 199211.50273677230.2543.937007874182.73382354.724406439282.1615949633154.4112580424351.57878941895
Oct 199222.90070658240.3982.5125628141286.33095134.9246211947346.778593914121.1111103088460.13687640725
Nov 199226.10142822560.4472.2371364653321.582751531.0961951577437.2927597062135.9814099688440.727216826
Dec 199225.20036473580.41452.4125452352298.2014552533.5343769252547.4921301154183.5980745488343.20717948776
Jan 199325.80.5721.7482517483411.51081424.3006979642688.7450996852167.3698664175319.439443240174258
Feb 199324.64228934820.5931.6863406408426.618728523.440133618858.467660021201.2259665766301.901646198274159
Mar 199320.15306122450.6841.4619883041492.08635820.32163630921031.4751731375209.6126333048294.18045716164654
Apr 199318.68365180470.8231.2150668287592.086363516.88942798971224.1924029381206.7590943493286.858217452984456
May 199318.11270125221.0240.9765625736.69068813.57421800341445.9267156348196.2732445499294.5586771933-11.479460810384357
Jun 199319.91669822041.060.9433962264762.5899713.11320682591733.9075760756227.3708866215286.515888848-11.813782759794159
Jul 199322.38711714560.9871.0131712259710.071981514.0830792662122.0794963274298.8541375544222.5744537278-13.237600103294258
Aug 199326.00619195050.99251.0075566751714.0288162514.00503701312673.9515634837374.4879061782170.3326270557-15.585100737193169
Sep 199322.99344799341.1690.8554319932841.007240511.89050405093288.7852256034391.0531404757151.0088927742-12.526234726293763
Oct 199319.49392375561.1840.8445945946851.79860811.73986421923929.8985099685461.3647490216140.2223663251-9.5460282809102872
Nov 199316.39732516021.2310.8123476848885.611559511.29163219784574.2967471144516.5127643204121.4226822417-8.1989213645111981
Dec 199312.49551166971.2470.8019246191897.122351511.14675159225145.8785309549573.598297083112.3162097361-3.4263692946112179
Jan 199417.91.5480.6459948321113.6691268.97932767156066.9907879958544.7749826546111.1896830615-6.5869380831122179
Feb 199410.68702290081.6590.60277275471193.52524558.37854082916715.3714828961562.6501415211110.3389365563-0.7598206897142080
Mar 19947.43295019161.7530.5704506561261.15114857.92926368257214.5217003987572.058449059111.75253369522.1334700428171882
Apr 19948.4878744651.8320.54585152841317.9856847.58733582727826.8812455824593.8517649014107.7098232879-2.3052110454161981
May 19946.96909927681.9160.52192066811378.4173427.2546968878372.3443698636607.3882063698105.7898430154-0.6516828519171981
Jun 19945.96189305471.9890.50276520861430.93533056.98843601588871.4945873662619.9787228865104.16712159961.3156682135182377
Jul 19945.33642691422.060.48543689321482.014476.74757244449344.9154122141630.5549373087102.55375597281.8004911894201882
Aug 19944.68061674012.1970.45516613561580.57562656.32680893749782.3150873452618.9083852322102.8465913462-0.4132730142192575
Sep 19947.94318779592.6330.37979491071894.24470855.27914896910559.3427455194557.4434336882105.6353201409-1.8140911306192476
Oct 199415.00974658873.0750.3252032522212.23033754.520324954612144.2733330535548.960618033119.3954293587-2.7245719219172773
Nov 199414.61864406783.2340.30921459492326.6188334.298082633113919.6014262329598.2759715108.1114053093-3.8019806302173367
Dec 199416.48798521263.550.28169014082553.9569753.915492742416214.6632510388634.8839627981100-4.9426287063183565
Jan 199517.84.0480.24703557312912.2303763.433794277519100.8733097237655.884694670396.9061285273-7.9400934859-1.3615245704192773
Feb 199511.03565365034.4730.22356360383217.98578853.107533922521208.7795323588659.070018523896.5724768892-1.87901062061.3305091113202575
Mar 19958.86850152914.8990.20412329053524.46062552.837313581423089.6804694793655.126639872899.1244783687-0.0609713998-1.3082526994183664
Apr 19958.49719101125.130.19493177393690.6476852.709551507925051.654722855678.787488295796.99478906720.2414887986-0.442541278172971
May 19957.89644012944.990.20040080163589.9282552.785570989127029.8436394817752.935482814690.64617015240.7565819524-2.5182846664222872
Jun 19956.65866826634.5390.22031284423265.46780553.062348366528829.671260347882.864966905879.26828414331.1593238635-0.0245184583222971
Jul 19955.39932508444.4450.22497187853197.84190253.127108939430386.2789324467950.212044838572.32161155432.08969431432.6304118171213268
Aug 19954.58911419424.4470.22487069933199.28075153.12570254931780.7399720361993.371399403967.73556776582.49176177494.5535121218232674
Sep 19954.43877551024.4990.22227161593236.69082553.089575291333191.41567487651025.473777519365.63851405752.06853887853.5867077179252872
Oct 19954.7386419154.5040.22202486683240.2879483.086145478634764.23801022721072.874959513563.41326109142.07859703742.2637096457252377
Nov 19954.52425373134.580.21834061143294.964213.034934330936337.0603455781102.80591926661.27400070822.40566320914.5359710086241783
Dec 19953.21285140564.640.21551724143338.129682.995689490437504.51609965281123.518847226244.7162500413.4197539614.5665999624261981
Jan 19964.14.7340.21123785383405.7555832.936206006739042.20125973851146.359458518459.17820300132.54620987221.9499730926301288
Feb 19962.78578290114.8180.20755500213466.1872412.885014370240129.83222662851157.751426465158.60465641633.41230769851.4643152838291684
Mar 19962.80373831784.8560.20593080723493.5253722.862438063341254.96770961811180.89789873258.09054025463.26914490083.0278585259311585
Apr 19962.18181818184.940.20242914983553.957032.813765027442155.07609600971186.144788475757.83372819193.89768294976.3748861531311486
May 19961.60142348755.0310.19876764063619.42465952.762870052842830.15738580351183.341591967858.0282087364.4656750398.1810371439331486
Jun 19961.13835376535.1050.19588638593672.66207252.722820614243317.7160950991179.463703438858.19872061594.98666889656.331687125381387
Jul 19960.77922077925.1890.19271535943733.09373052.678743348543655.25673999581169.412286204558.99461064574.87413793784.7077368959361981
Aug 1996-0.25773195885.3520.18684603893850.3599242.597159797443542.74319169691130.874620844860.82015166915.43667086173.913685402371585
Sep 19960.34453057715.4070.18494544113889.92827152.570741489843692.76125609551123.227941661961.67382944225.34650299662.7797013835371981
Oct 19961.20171673825.4510.18345257753921.58294952.549990687144217.82448149061127.550406325861.96122579243.02337718551.979908031391585
Nov 19961.86598812555.510.18148820333964.0289952.522685886745042.9238356831136.291482542161.59575562462.15830102351.2063756868391783
Dec 19961.41548709415.570.17953321364007.1944652.495511532445680.50060937711139.962160767761.41753799352.08313194450.8132779168401783
Jan 19972.35.630.17761989344050.3599352.468916382946731.15212339281153.753070673560.82466556180.77933105860.5850215549381882
Feb 19971.56402737055.6760.17618040874083.4534622.448907546847462.04013314281162.301482674360.53451773411.62040875770.7973596387411882
Mar 19971.44369586145.7270.17461148944120.14411152.427099569748147.24764228351168.581640333860.3420713071.47604704481.0760350836401783
Apr 19970.94876660345.7440.17409470754132.3743282.419916301448604.05264837721176.17739320160.2500604511.4106670621.1320770997451783
May 19970.93984962415.7670.17340038154148.92109152.4102651749060.8576544711182.496764158459.89137434551.51481163951.2131852581401882
Jun 19971.11731843585.7690.17334026694150.35994052.40942957849609.02366178351195.294489465659.46225098470.98988325661.1404035131422476
Jul 19970.92081031315.8090.1721466694179.13692052.39283856750065.82866787731197.994457235659.11885041781.19963039411.112612089452080
Aug 1997-0.09124087595.840.17123287674201.439082.380136855450020.1481672681190.547981651859.55197437622.19162920341.1353808307432476
Sep 1997-0.34703196355.8640.170532064218.7052682.37039550449846.56226495231181.560670830760.14639983112.21806229910.8199845001423169
Oct 19970.16495601175.90.16949152544244.604552.355932073849928.78716604921176.288310911160.60092231821.64109515150.5944203655393268
Nov 19970.64043915835.9240.16880486164261.8707382.346387446950248.55067031481179.025685182960.51293505291.09264727790.9321872699452575
Dec 19970.90909090915.9740.16739203214297.8419632.326749118850705.35567640861179.786416367360.38243880441.19827749951.478929957472773
Jan 19981.56.0480.16534391534351.0793762.298280296951465.93601155471182.831466955960.06214280590.68702650951.5258444377502476
Feb 19980.88669950746.0450.16542597194348.92110252.299420882651922.28421264241193.911845924260.03063761661.33805197091.7591530463461981
Mar 19980.644531256.0890.16423057974380.57578052.282804932752256.93956010671192.92399398160.17999119982.0810198341.4983248384502179
Apr 19980.42693576566.110.16366612114395.6836952.274958958352480.04312508291193.899442418460.29025448812.33296961781.0856757819501783
May 19980.48309178746.1380.16291951784415.8275812.264581172352733.5699034651194.194495508960.37588526132.37351211092.5757576862521684
Jun 19980.05769230776.2250.16064257034478.41751252.232931604152763.99311687081178.183877889860.78525208853.2613964767-5.7102027353521882
Jul 19980.16336728816.2720.15943877554512.2304642.216198857752850.19222152071171.265356306161.17488929052.9706488203-5.9392931948532080
Aug 19983.712942530910.3630.09649715337455.39609351.341310357654812.4894861977735.205598720464.8017954204-0.344345769-5.034873577541387
Sep 199838.390379278416.0450.062324711711543.16610250.866313445775855.2120919073657.143901580799.6364107467-25.39156360090521684
Oct 19984.545454545516.60.060240963911942.44670.837349351579303.1762779031664.0446323106104.8631897906-1.11577051160522278
Nov 19985.690537084418.470.054141851713287.7705150.752571696683815.9529331034630.7751389783102.6310550153-2.41989630020482674
Dec 199811.554748941321.140.047303689715208.633930.657521250593500.6758672975614.7868131855112.2552389937-7.71606788580493268
Jan 19998.423.10.043290043316618.705950.6017315686101354.73264015609.8834226028115.3339091537-4.8206720640463070
Feb 19994.105166051723.10.043290043316618.705950.6017315686105515.512716245634.9201498222113.2224243655-0.9738904543-0.8460318342464159
Mar 19992.791315906124.860.040225261517884.893070.5591311036108460.784006065606.4379785865113.33349362390.3841632986-0.4163746824474159
Apr 19993.017241379324.290.041169205417474.8211050.5722519241111733.30766142639.3960029122115.72056086380.0545073175-0.3396352534434159
May 19992.242677824324.70.0404858317769.785150.5627530055114239.125774664642.8841137377112.18437557580.7949505775-0.0919168763444555
Jun 19991.898837780324.210.041305245817417.2671450.5741428846116408.341454785668.3502095115110.16738302210.4461720403-0.7023678023364852
Jul 19992.811244979924.1980.041325729417408.6340510.5744276071119680.865110141687.4799295541106.9044814255-0.0342484039384753
Aug 19991.17187524.860.040225261517884.893070.5591311036121083.37524815677.0148123013364951
Sep 19991.4656625.1790.03971563618114.38948550.5520473107122858.045845812678.2345380404345446
Oct 19991.3619426.030.038417210918726.6197350.5339992023124531.298715405664.9961417364345248
Nov 19991.2214926.650.037523452219172.6629250.5215759563126052.436076083657.4591989082344852
Dec 19991.2469826.9590.03709336419394.96509550.5155977312127624.284743465658.0279166013364753
Jan 20002.3440628.60.03496503520575.54070.4860139593130615.874552423634.8113833646334951
Feb 20001.0481328.690.034855350320640.2889050.4844893425131984.898718369639.452767962315347
Mar 20000.6530928.680.034867503520633.094660.4846582718132846.878893409643.8533873978305149
Apr 20000.8306928.3950.035217467920428.05867750.4895227764133950.424631688655.7178376388295050
May 20001.741128.250.035398230120323.7421250.4920353712136282.635474951670.5587712969295644
Jun 20002.5669628.080.035612535620201.439960.4950142178139780.956214539691.9356070226265446
Jul 20001.8135627.8510.035905353520036.69174950.499084386142315.967724063710.2767737474265446
Aug 20000.9618827.830.03593244720021.5838350.4994609858143684.876554407717.6499009196215842
Sep 20001.3
DateInflation (CPI), % a month, right scaleEnd of month exchange rate (MICEX) R/$Nom exch rateNominal exchange rate, R/$, left scaleNominal exchange rate, $/RConsumer price index, left scaleReal exchange rate, right scaleReal exchange rate (monthly average) Dec-94 =100 , % , , % , , %, left scaleShare of enterprises in good or normal conditions, industry (%) , %, left scale
Jan-20002.3440628.60.03496503520575.54070.4860139593130615.874552423634.8113833646334951
Feb-20001.0481328.690.034855350320640.2889050.4844893425131984.898718369639.452767962315347
Mar-20000.6530928.680.034867503520633.094660.4846582718132846.878893409643.8533873978305149
Apr-20000.8306928.3950.035217467920428.05867750.4895227764133950.424631688655.7178376388295050
May-20001.741128.250.035398230120323.7421250.4920353712136282.635474951670.5587712969295644
June-20002.5669628.080.035612535620201.439960.4950142178139780.956214539691.9356070226265446
July-20001.8135627.8510.035905353520036.69174950.499084386142315.967724063710.2767737474265446
Aug-20000.9618827.830.03593244720021.5838350.4994609858143684.876554407717.6499009196215842
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15208.6339393500.6758672975614.7868131855
16618.70595101354.73264015609.8834226028
16618.70595105515.512716245634.9201498222
17884.89307108460.784006065606.4379785865
17474.821105111733.30766142639.3960029122
17769.78515114239.125774664642.8841137377
17417.267145116408.341454785668.3502095115
17408.634051119680.865110141687.4799295541
17884.89307121083.37524815677.0148123013
18114.3894855122858.045845812678.2345380404
18726.619735124531.298715405664.9961417364
19172.662925126052.436076083657.4591989082
19394.9650955127624.284743465658.0279166013
20575.5407130615.874552423634.8113833646
20640.288905131984.898718369639.452767962
20633.09466132846.878893409643.8533873978
20428.0586775133950.424631688655.7178376388
20323.742125136282.635474951670.5587712969
20201.43996139780.956214539691.9356070226
20036.6917495142315.967724063710.2767737474
20021.583835143684.876554407717.6499009196
Nominal exchange rate, R/S, left scale
Consumer price index, left scale
Real exchange rate, right scale
Nominal and real exchange rate, consumer price index, Febr. 1992 = 100%
Sheet3
8Feb-199237.9959455546
6Mar-199229.9055613851
5Apr-199221.6962843296
4May-199211.8943316076
5June-199219.100723692
6July-199210.5986652057
9Aug-19928.6012789336
5Sept-199211.5027367723
5Oct-199222.9007065824
6Nov-199226.1014282256
6Dec-199225.2003647358
75825.8
75924.6422893482
65420.1530612245
85618.6836518047
85718.1127012522
95919.9166982204
95822.3871171456
96926.0061919505
96322.9934479934
107219.4939237556
118116.3973251602
117912.4955116697
127917.9
148010.6870229008
17827.4329501916
16818.487874465
17816.9690992768
18775.9618930547
20825.3364269142
19754.6806167401
19767.9431877959
177315.0097465887
176714.6186440678
186516.4879852126
197317.8
207511.0356536503
18648.8685015291
17718.4971910112
22727.8964401294
22716.6586682663
21685.3993250844
23744.5891141942
25724.4387755102
25774.738641915
24834.5242537313
26813.2128514056
30884.1
29842.7857829011
31852.8037383178
31862.1818181818
33861.6014234875
38871.1383537653
36810.7792207792
3785-0.2577319588
37810.3445305771
39851.2017167382
39831.8659881255
40831.4154870941
38822.3
41821.5640273705
40831.4436958614
45830.9487666034
40820.9398496241
42761.1173184358
45800.9208103131
4376-0.0912408759
4269-0.3470319635
39680.1649560117
45750.6404391583
47730.9090909091
50761.5
46810.8866995074
50790.64453125
50830.4269357656
52840.4830917874
52820.0576923077
53800.1633672881
54873.7129425309
528438.3903792784
52784.5454545455
48745.6905370844
496811.5547489413
46708.4
46594.1051660517
47592.7913159061
43593.0172413793
44552.2426778243
36521.8988377803
38532.8112449799
36511.171875
34461.46566
34481.36194
34521.22149
36531.24698
33512.34406
31471.04813
33510.65309
31470.83069
30491.7411
29502.56696
29441.81356
26460.96188
26461.3
Share of barter in sales, %, left scale
Share of enterprises in poor financial conditions, %, left scale
Inflation (CPI), % a month, right scale
Fig. 4. Barter, financial conditions of industrial enterprises and inflation
RETTotal overdue payables of2RET
enterprises, R bn
Totalto suppliers, Rto the budgetwage ar-rears,
& non-budgetaryR bn % 2
funds, R bn ( )
1996.14 262.4131.4100.616216.71996.160.636825103846.42362713437.38347946476.645131518230
1996.2276.4137.2107.917.1229.21996.259.860383944247.07678883077.46073298436.195462478229
1996.3297.6145.5112.417.2241.81996.360.173697270546.48469809767.11331679079.305210918131
1996.4323.2158.1121.718.12511996.462.988047808848.48605577697.211155378510.079681274931
1996.5351.8171.1133.220.3254.21996.567.309205350152.39968528727.985837922910.700236034633
1996.6382.3186.3148.821.6266.91996.669.801423754255.75121768458.09291869619.591607343638
1996.7411.6203.6158.124.8271.91996.774.880470761358.14637734469.12100036789.231335049736
1996.8426.6209.8171.426.3275.31996.876.207773338262.25935343269.55321467496.937885942637
1996.9449.7218.6177.330.52761996.979.202898550764.239130434811.05072463778.442028985537
1996.10485.8230.1194.631278.81996.1082.532281205269.799139167911.119081779110.796269727439
1996.11499236.8197.931.9282.31996.1183.882394615770.102727594811.300035423311.47715196639
1996.12514.4245.9203.434.7288.31996.1285.293097467970.55150884512.036073534510.544571626840
1997.1529.1249.121735.4289.91997.185.926181441974.853397723412.21110727849.520524318738
1997.2559.7259.8231.836.9299.51997.286.744574290577.395659432412.320534223710.417362270541
1997.3601283.8251.237.6305.81997.392.805755395782.145192936612.2956180519.287115761940
1997.4634.3301.1254.236.7317.81997.494.745122718779.987413467611.548143486513.310258023945
1997.5653.8309.426138.4328.41997.594.214372716279.476248477511.693057247313.702801461640
1997.6668.6313.3268.439.33521997.689.005681818276.2511.164772727313.522727272742
1997.7694.3321.5281393631997.788.567493112977.410468319610.743801652914.545454545545
1997.8707.6328.9289.239.6364.61997.890.208447613879.319802523310.861217772913.686231486643
1997.9723.4330.2302.741.33631997.990.964187327883.388429752111.377410468313.553719008342
1997.10745.2340.2311.840.8368.81997.1092.245119305984.544468546611.062906724514.208242950139
1997.11761.7342.9321.241.4357.41997.1195.942921096889.871292669311.58365976515.724678231745
1997.12756.1344.7316.639.7374.11997.1292.14113873384.629778134210.612135792614.728682170547
1998.1687.7286.2299.241.8361.21998.179.235880398782.834994462911.572535991116.749723145150
1998.19 891.6399.6357.855.6362.91998.1110.11297878298.594654174715.321025075821.658859189950
1998.2941.7433.9370.159360.41998.2120.3940066593102.691453940116.370699223121.836847946746
1998.3998.3455.9386.562.33681998.3123.8858695652105.02717391316.929347826125.434782608750
1998.41034.1473.9407.964.23701998.4128.0810810811110.243243243217.351351351423.810810810850
1998.51075.5499.1422.968.6368.61998.5135.4042322301114.731416169318.610960390723.033098209452
1998.61082507.4420.273.23601998.6140.9444444444116.722222222220.333333333322.555555555652
1998.71132527.3429.778.1343.61998.7153.4633294529125.058207217722.729918509928.201396973253
1998.81160.5543.3439.884.1365.81998.8148.5237834882120.229633679622.990705303425.50574084254
1998.91199.8558456.588.1377.61998.9147.7754237288120.895127118623.331567796625.741525423752
1998.101224.7574467.186.8396.91998.10144.6208112875117.687074829921.869488536224.389014865252
1998.111238.7585.9478.685448.31998.11130.693731876106.758866830218.960517510619.897390140548
1998.121230.6586474.577444.21998.12131.9225574066106.821251688417.334533993720.959027465149
1999.11241.1583.5479.776463.91999.1125.7814184091103.405906445416.382841129621.965940935546
1999.21280.6597.7501.972.6473.81999.2126.1502743774105.930772477815.322921063722.878851836246
1999.31321.8623.8515.767.7509.61999.3122.409733124101.197017268413.284929356422.488226059747
1999.41358.9640.6538.863.1542.41999.4118.10471976499.336283185811.63348082621.460176991243
1999.51366.3639.354861.1567.71999.5112.612295226496.52985731910.762726792320.768011273644
1999.61388654.1557.859583.21999.6112.157064471995.644718792910.116598079620.078875171536
1999.71404.8654.456859.1590.81999.7110.765064319696.140825998610.003385240420.870006770538
1999.81427.4658.7573.356.2597.41999.8110.261131570195.96585202549.407432206223.300970873836
1999.91416.9665.9576.254.6625.11999.9106.526955687192.17725163978.734602463619.228923372334
1999.101435.1665585.253.1646.61999.10102.845654191290.50417568828.212186823420.383544695334
1999.111416.3694.4583.250.9704.71999.1198.538385128482.75862068977.22293174412.459202497534
1999.121354.5619.5572.643.76951999.1289.136690647582.38848920866.287769784217.079136690636
2000.11351.1615.5571.344.9726.62000.184.709606385978.62647949356.179466006116.432700247733
2000.21483.9685605.143.6751.42000.291.163162097480.52967793455.802501996319.989353207331
2000.31577729622.639.9787.92000.392.524432034579.02018022595.064094428223.543596903230
2000.41598.9728.4634.838.7831.62000.487.590187590276.33477633484.653679653723.689273689329
2000.51602.2747.8632.338.7892.22000.583.81528805270.86976014354.337592468120.555929163929
2000.61614.1748630.139.3931.22000.680.326460481167.66537800694.220360824721.123281786926
2000.71647.1766.1653.440.5960.12000.779.793771482168.05541089474.218310592619.487553379926
2000.838.321
, % , %,
6/1/9221212257.54716981135DateInflation (CPI), % a month, right scaleEnd of month exchange rate (MICEX) R/$Nom exch rateNominal exchange rate, R/$, left scaleNominal exchange rate, $/RConsumer price index, left scaleReal exchange rate, right scaleReal exchange rate (monthly average) Dec-94 =100 , % , , % , , %, left scaleShare of enterprises in good or normal conditions, industry (%) , %, left scale
7/1/9224415061.47540983616Jan-20002.3440628.60.03496503520575.54070.4860139593130615.874552423634.8113833646334951
8/1/9225115260.55776892439Feb-20001.0481328.690.034855350320640.2889050.4844893425131984.898718369639.452767962315347
9/1/9219512162.05128205135Mar-20000.6530928.680.034867503520633.094660.4846582718132846.878893409643.8533873978305149
10/1/921057268.57142857145Apr-20000.8306928.3950.035217467920428.05867750.4895227764133950.424631688655.7178376388295050
11/1/921567749.3589743596May-20001.741128.250.035398230120323.7421250.4920353712136282.635474951670.5587712969295644
12/1/921406546.42857142866June-20002.5669628.080.035612535620201.439960.4950142178139780.956214539691.9356070226265446
1/1/931446243.05555555567July-20001.8135627.8510.035905353520036.69174950.499084386142315.967724063710.2767737474265446
2/1/931285442.18757Aug-20000.9618827.830.03593244720021.5838350.4994609858143684.876554407717.6499009196215842
3/1/931134539.82300884966
4/1/931254737.68
5/1/931406042.85714285718
6/1/931355742.22222222229
7/1/931315340.45801526729
8/1/931315541.98473282449
9/1/931395841.7266187059
10/1/931446041.666666666710
11/1/9315