“MAGIC MOMENTS”:The Politics of Social Protection

Gabriele KoehlerDevelopment economist

Visiting Fellow, Vulnerability and Poverty Reduction Team, IDS Sussex

EC Social Protection Training Course Asia and Pacific Region

Bangkok 12-15 June 2012

Day 3 session 1

The politics of social protection ”

QUICK QUIZI.) Magic moments – policy momentsII.) Policy pushes globally and regionally – policy diffusionIII.) The politics of social protection at the country levelIV.) ExerciseV.) Quick summary

QUICK QUIZWHAT IS “GOOD” SOCIAL PROTECTION?

……

QUICK QUIZWHAT IS “GOOD” SOCIAL PROTECTION?

Rights based - Universal right/universal coverage Citizenship- or residents-based

Accompanied by supply side measuresAccompanied by decent work policy & action

Addresses crises, chronic poverty, vulnerabilities Well-targeted and publicised entitlements for socially excluded groups

Special effort to reach disadvantaged households/communities

Systemic – uniting fragmented systems

Sustainable, predictable, meaningful benefit levels Affordable and long-term sustainable

Tax financed

Empowerment: space to civil society and public action

ManageableAdvanced IT

Monitoring & evaluation systems

I.) “Magic moments” – policy moments

• Shift in domestic political dynamics – such as – Change of government– Political transitions– Change in economic lead paradigm– Burning issues– New fiscal resources – Major financial or economic crisis – Natural disaster– End of an armed conflict

Political will

Political will

II.)

Policy

pushes

globally and regionally

Changing international power dynamics• Economic dynamism in the South leading to a new international

economic geography• Emergence of the G-20 and the BRICs

“Globalisation”• new technologies changing production and trade patterns • IT changing information culture

More transformative international development paradigms• Keynesianism and a concern for employment, decent work and social

protection • focus on social inclusion • multidimensional poverty concepts• awareness of child poverty in developed and developing countries• A drive for equity• the emerging trend for a rights based approach – universalist – transformative

agenda

MDGs and social protection

Accelerated push for social protection & the global social floor since 2008 global crisis UN system together with the IFIs (2009 CEB decision) 2010 high level conference on the MDGs 2011 UN coalition on SP 2012 International Labour Conference and the social floor Also reemerging discussion on role of the state

EU and social protection

Accelerated push for social protection in EU discussions– Treaty of Rome (1958) – Update: Treaty of Lisbon (2009)– Europe 2020 (2010)

Diffusion into EU development cooperation policies European Development Report 2010 PovNet papers on social protection and decent work and EC-UN “show

and tell” meetings 2012 Communication: consultation process (Jan-March 2012) and

document (at Council by October)

G20 2011. Seoul development consensus1) infrastructure, 2) private investment and job creation, 3) human resource development, 4) trade, 5) financial inclusion, 6) growth with resilience, 7) food security, 8) domestic resource mobilization,9) knowledge sharing

ESCAP and social protection

Subregional processes

ASEAN Socio-cultural community blueprint pillars

• Human development• Social welfare and protection• Social justice and rights• Environmental sustainability• An ASEAN identity• Narrowing the development gap

The BRICS and social protection:

Source: http://www.google.com/imgres?q=BRICS+map&hl=en&client=safari&sa=X&rls=en&biw=1280&bih=611&tbm=isch&prmd=imvns&tbnid=RqNceHxgRU8i9M:&imgrefurl=

III. The politics of social protection

at the country level

Social protection in action

Social protection policy

Policy politics example 1: Social protection pensions, poverty transfers, mainstreaming

(Hickey)

• The political context• The key ‘drivers of change’• The policy spaces within• The forms of poverty data and analysis used in relation to the

interventions • Shifting ideologies and discourses of development mobilised

behind interventions for the poorest • The politics of their design and implementation modalities • The extent to which they help construct ‘social contracts’

between state and citizenry.

Policy politics example 2: Creating a welfare state

(Sandbrook et al)

Causal factors• Structural – state formation• Configurational – constellation of classes, political

parties and civil society• Conjunctural – coalescing of organised actors

Policy politics example 3: Conditional cash transfer: Bolsa familia

(IPC)

• The political context• Affordability• Design elements (size of the grant; targeting

features) • Electoral effects

Policy politics example 4:child grant

(Escap/Koehler)

– Recognising a policy moment– Seizing it– Building on existing institutional history– Creating the argument– Creating coalitions– Mobilising financial resources – Supporting government and integrating with other

policies

Policy politics example 5: Introducing pension/health reform

(Weyland) • improvements in communication and trans

portation• inspiration from foreign models and principles• decision-makers participate in transnational

networks • rule making at the international level• international organisations seek to “persuade,

coax, push, or force” governments to adopt policy ideas

Exercise: Adopting a national social protection system

Background:• Parliamentary consultation on institutionalising a national social protection system• Ministry of Welfare proposal to introduce a NSPS• Ministry of Labour opposed• Ministry of Finance opposed• Powerful NGO proposing immediate introduction• Government under strong pressure for policies to address poverty and vulnerability and

enhance governance and efficiency • Opposition comprised of technocrats which see risks of populism, dependency issues,

technical design shortcomings, affordability

Task: Split into four groups, choose Indonesia, Nepal, Tajikistan, Vietnam examples1. Revisit your brief, challenges and obstacles listed, and deepen them with examples of policy2. List out potential strategic alliances or analytical references 3. Prepare arguments Ministry of Welfare could present

15 minutesPlenary: list out your arguments (3 minutes per country) 22

India: RSBY, NREGA

Thailand: UC scheme, minimum pension scheme (500 THB)

Cambodia: NSPS with clear reference to the SPF … including HEFs, CBHIs, Food distribution, PWPs,…

Lao: extension of SHP for all

Vietnam: 10 years Social security strategy

Indonesia: Jamkesmas, Jampersal, PKH, Rice for the poor, PNPM

China: minimum living standard guarantee program; new rural corporative medical care (NRCMC); health insurance for urban uninsured residents (HIUR); rural old-age pension

Philippines: universal health reform

Pathways to social protection

Nepal: broad range

Bangladesh: Strategy…

Sri Lanka: …

Tajikistan :…

IndonesiaInter-vention

Challenges add-ressed

Objective Indicators of progress/success

Coverage/cost/index

Obstacles Shortcomings

EC

Nat prog for comm empowerment

large pop 72 mill poorRural & urban disavantaged. ISAccelerate pov alleviation, liveilhoods & participation

Nationwide. 65000 villages

50000 Local mentors needed. Instit cap. Disparities large/marg comm’s/gender

Reduce pov 8/10%Access to servicesIncrease part of poor. Local cap bldg

Faciliation.Attrition of good staff.Work overload.Cultural. Coord difficult..MIS sustainability.Reg disparities

Y

NepalInter-vention

Challenges add-ressed

Objective Indicators of progress/success

Coverage/cost/index

Obstacles

Shortcomings

EC

Many schemes

Pov., ConflictEnvironment,Social exclusion,Lowest HDI

Gap between commitment/implementation

NationalCoverage3.5% GDP variesApproach needs to vary.P.c.benefits low

Weak gov.Supply side weak.Confusion entitlement

Prod assets missing

Y

TajikistanInter-vention

Challenges add-ressed

Objective Indicators of progress/success

Coverage/cost/index

Obstacles Shortcomings EC

Poor qual of services;low pension/unemploymen;low income,

Pc income 1000$.Vulnerabitlies n.a.Tangible results

Part of Sov Union collapse.rethink role of state

Poor targeting/improving

Resources lacking

y

VietnamInter-vention

Challenges add-ressed

Objective Indicators of progress/success

Coverage/cost/index

Obstacles Shortcomings EC

Cash transfers to poor families w school children

From pov red for spec groups to universal. Large programme.Compensate for user feesSocial cohesion

Qual of servic es. Health insurance 60% cov.Formal insured; not informal

Coverage & distribution of benefits; education outcomes. Graduation

Social insurance for informal sectorHousehold based

cap

Poverty line issue. Fiscal space. Sustain. dependency

Non conditional

Y

Recognise & seizing SP “magic moments” Recognise drivers of change• Analyse and address group interests • Mobilise beneficiaries, stakeholders, overcome political resistance• Build strategic alliances for national consensus towards a social

compact

Be ready for expansion, systematisation and universalisation• Undertake analytical and evidence research• Prepare sound programme/policy incl bencmarch, M&E • Examine fiscal space and address economic and tax performance• Create shifts in “philosophies”, principles• Use international debates/norms/”fashions

Look at obstacles• Address affordability of social protection as a political issue

(“political will”)• Address governance issues• Deal with populist pressures

Resources – reading listBob Deacon, 2009, Middle Class Buy-in: Is it too Late? Global Social Policy, Volume 9 (1): 18

SAGE – Apr 1, 2009 Sam Hickey, 2006 , The Politics of What Works in Reducing Chronic Poverty. A synthesis report

for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands . Institute of Development Policy and Management, School of Environment and Development, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UNITED KINGDOM. CPRC Working Paper 91. http://www.chronicpoverty.org/uploads/publication_files/WP91_Hickey.pdf

International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC), 2o12, Bolsa Familia: A Summary of Its Impacts. One Pager No 137. April 2012

Gabriele Koehler, 2011, The challenges of Delivering as One: Overcoming fragmentation and moving towards policy coherence. ILO Working Paper No. 100. http://www.ilo.org/integration/resources/papers/WCMS_153043/lang--en/index.htm -

Richard Sandbrook, Marc Edelman, Patrick Heller, Judith Teichman, 2007. Social democracy in the global periphery: origins, challenges, prospects. Cambridge university Press

Kurt Weyland, 2007. Bounded Rationality and Policy Diffusion. Princeton University Press