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Mainstreet - National August

Date post: 16-Aug-2015
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A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a three way race among the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals in Canada's federal election.
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Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,401 Canadians by Smart IVR™ on August 10-11, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones. Margin of error: +/- 1.35%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
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Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,401 Canadians by Smart IVR on August 10-11, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.Margin of error: +/- 1.35%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.A2"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.CAMPAIGN SETTLES INTO THREE WAY RACEAugust14,2015(Toronto,ON)-AnewMainstreet/Postmediapollndsathreewayraceamongthe Conservatives, NDP and Liberals. With 5,401 respondents the Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.35%, 19/20.Among decided and leaning voters (A11) the Conservatives lead with 31% (-4%) compared to 30% (+1%) for the NDP and 29% (+3%) for the Liberals with the Green Party at 6% (no change).Quebec and Ontario continue to drive national numbers as the Conservatives have slipped in Ontario to just a single digit lead and the NDP lead has shrunk in to Quebec to just a few points over surging Liberals. Nationally,thismeanswearebacktoathreewayracewiththeConservativeleadnarrowingtojust4 points over both the Liberals and the NDP, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.Mainstreet Momentum TrackerOur Momentum Tracker continues to show the momentum with the Conservative party that now enjoys a 3 point lead over the NDP and an 5 point lead over the Liberals. In Qubec, the Liberals and NDP are now neck and neck 30 to 28 with the BQ back at 21 and the Conservatives in fourth place at just 18. The strength ofConservativesupportcontinuestooutpaceboththeLiberalsandNDPanddespitetrailingdistantly amongundecidedleaningvotersandsecondchoiceforvoteswitchers,theyholdasimilarleadaswe found two weeks ago.Post Debate BumpWhether the post debate bump enjoyed by Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party can be maintained, only time will tell, but this race has only just begun. The bump is likely not from the debate itself but from the media coverage surrounding it.Canadians Want May in More DebatesAn overwhelming majority of Canadians approve of allowing the Green Party leader to take part in future debates.79%approveincluding63%whostronglyapprove.Only11%disapprove,withjust5%strongly disapproving.Most Following the Campaign, Even Now in SummerIt appears that Canadians are engaged in this election, with over 7 in 10 indicating they are following the campaign, including over 40% who say they are following it very closely. This is both good and bad news for the candidates and leaders. While this represents an opportunity for all parties to communicate their platforms and policies, it also presents a risk that small mis-steps could have a signicant efect on voter intention numbers.Regional Races Show a Divided CanadaIn the regional races, a few regions are beginning to be surprisingly competitive, with Manitoba being the most obvious. While Conservatives still enjoy a lead, the Liberals are just 7 points back and the NDP trail with just 15%. The NDP commands a big lead in BC, leading Liberals by 13 and the Conservatives by 15 at 38% and on the other end of the country, Liberals continue to dominate Atlantic Canada by 15% over the Conervatives and 20% over the NDP with 43%.No Leader Has Clear Senate AdvantageCanadians are evenly split on which party leader they trust to x the Senate, 24% for each of Tom Mulcair and Stephen Harper with Justin Trudeau just one point back at 23%. Although recent scandals involving Senators have been primarily with Harper appointed Senate members, he continues to be trusted with this le equally with his rivals.Uncertain Economy; Most Believe Canada is Entering a RecessionThe economy continues to be a major issue for the coming election as recent world events and oil prices afect the economy and employment negatively across Canada. Canadians are feeling less secure than they were a year ago, 44% vs just 14% who say they feel more secure. In fact, over 60% of Canadians believe we arealreadyinarecession,comparedtojust17%whosayCanadaisnotinarecession.Asthatnancial insecurity increases, look for greater scrutiny of each parties economic platforms.Whenaskedabouttheyearahead,moreCanadiansarepessimisticabouttheCanadianeconomythan optimisticbyafactorofalmost2to1.(48%to27%)Whenaskedabouttheirownpersonalnancial situation in the next 12 months, the tables are turned with 48% saying they are optimistic vs just 28% saying they are pessimistic, Maggi nished.RegionalMarginsofError:BritishColumbia+/-3.59%;Alberta+/-3.59%;Saskatchewan+/-3.92%; Manitoba +/- 3.84%; Ontario +/- 2.68%; Qubec +/- 3.17%; Atlantic Canada +/- 4.9% (all 19/20)About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreetisanationalpublicresearchrm.With20yearsofpoliticalexperienceatallthreelevelsof government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public afairs. Diferentiatedbyitslargesamplesizes,Mainstreethasprovidedaccuratesnapshotsofpublicopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.-30-Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected] SETTLES INTO THREE WAY RACEAugust14,2015(Toronto,ON)-AnewMainstreet/Postmediapollndsathreewayraceamongthe Conservatives, NDP and Liberals. With 5,401 respondents the Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.35%, 19/20.Among decided and leaning voters (A11) the Conservatives lead with 31% (-4%) compared to 30% (+1%) for the NDP and 29% (+3%) for the Liberals with the Green Party at 6% (no change).Quebec and Ontario continue to drive national numbers as the Conservatives have slipped in Ontario to just a single digit lead and the NDP lead has shrunk in to Quebec to just a few points over surging Liberals. Nationally,thismeanswearebacktoathreewayracewiththeConservativeleadnarrowingtojust4 points over both the Liberals and the NDP, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.Mainstreet Momentum TrackerOur Momentum Tracker continues to show the momentum with the Conservative party that now enjoys a 3 point lead over the NDP and an 5 point lead over the Liberals. In Qubec, the Liberals and NDP are now neck and neck 30 to 28 with the BQ back at 21 and the Conservatives in fourth place at just 18. The strength ofConservativesupportcontinuestooutpaceboththeLiberalsandNDPanddespitetrailingdistantly amongundecidedleaningvotersandsecondchoiceforvoteswitchers,theyholdasimilarleadaswe found two weeks ago.Post Debate BumpWhether the post debate bump enjoyed by Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party can be maintained, only time will tell, but this race has only just begun. The bump is likely not from the debate itself but from the media coverage surrounding it.Canadians Want May in More DebatesAn overwhelming majority of Canadians approve of allowing the Green Party leader to take part in future debates.79%approveincluding63%whostronglyapprove.Only11%disapprove,withjust5%strongly disapproving.Most Following the Campaign, Even Now in SummerIt appears that Canadians are engaged in this election, with over 7 in 10 indicating they are following the campaign, including over 40% who say they are following it very closely. This is both good and bad news for the candidates and leaders. While this represents an opportunity for all parties to communicate their platforms and policies, it also presents a risk that small mis-steps could have a signicant efect on voter intention numbers.Regional Races Show a Divided CanadaIn the regional races, a few regions are beginning to be surprisingly competitive, with Manitoba being the most obvious. While Conservatives still enjoy a lead, the Liberals are just 7 points back and the NDP trail with just 15%. The NDP commands a big lead in BC, leading Liberals by 13 and the Conservatives by 15 at A338% and on the other end of the country, Liberals continue to dominate Atlantic Canada by 15% over the Conervatives and 20% over the NDP with 43%.No Leader Has Clear Senate AdvantageCanadians are evenly split on which party leader they trust to x the Senate, 24% for each of Tom Mulcair and Stephen Harper with Justin Trudeau just one point back at 23%. Although recent scandals involving Senators have been primarily with Harper appointed Senate members, he continues to be trusted with this le equally with his rivals.Uncertain Economy; Most Believe Canada is Entering a RecessionThe economy continues to be a major issue for the coming election as recent world events and oil prices afect the economy and employment negatively across Canada. Canadians are feeling less secure than they were a year ago, 44% vs just 14% who say they feel more secure. In fact, over 60% of Canadians believe we arealreadyinarecession,comparedtojust17%whosayCanadaisnotinarecession.Asthatnancial insecurity increases, look for greater scrutiny of each parties economic platforms.Whenaskedabouttheyearahead,moreCanadiansarepessimisticabouttheCanadianeconomythan optimisticbyafactorofalmost2to1.(48%to27%)Whenaskedabouttheirownpersonalnancial situation in the next 12 months, the tables are turned with 48% saying they are optimistic vs just 28% saying they are pessimistic, Maggi nished.RegionalMarginsofError:BritishColumbia+/-3.59%;Alberta+/-3.59%;Saskatchewan+/-3.92%; Manitoba +/- 3.84%; Ontario +/- 2.68%; Qubec +/- 3.17%; Atlantic Canada +/- 4.9% (all 19/20)About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreetisanationalpublicresearchrm.With20yearsofpoliticalexperienceatallthreelevelsof government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public afairs. Diferentiatedbyitslargesamplesizes,Mainstreethasprovidedaccuratesnapshotsofpublicopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.-30-Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.Whos got the Momentum? Mainstreets Momentum Tracker compares a number of factors including vote strength, second choice preferences and undecided leaners.A43530252015105035%32%28%6%18%30%28%3%21%National Quebec OnlyCPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UDAtlantic20%17%31%0%4%29%400A5CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLEBC18%29%19%0%11%22%746AB44%16%20%0%7%13%744SK35%23%14%0%6%22%592MB35%12%30%0%3%20%626QC18%28%26%13%3%13%953ON29%24%24%0%5%18%1340CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDCertain28%24%25%3%5%16%Might19%16%23%2%6%35%Likely18%21%22%4%6%29%Unlikely13%32%11%6%8%31%CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE18-3427%23%28%1%6%15%35835-4926%27%21%4%6%16%98550-6425%24%22%3%6%20%185665+28%21%24%4%3%20%2202Female22%23%24%2%6%21%3028Male30%24%24%3%5%14%2373The Question Was:If the Federal Election were today,which party would you support?Party and Leader Name were givenie. The Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperCONSERVATIVE (CPC)NDPLIBERAL (LPC)BLOC QUBECOIS (BQ)GREEN PARTY (GPC)UNDECIDED (UD)26%24%24%3%5%18%-4%+2%+4%---2%A626%24%24%3%5%18%CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UDA74035302520151050British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan ManitobaRegional Margins of Error:British Columbia +/- 3.59%Alberta +/- 3.59%Saskatchewan: +/- 3.92%Manitoba: +/- 3.84%A8302520151050Ontario Qubec AtlanticRegional Margins of Error:Ontario +/- 2.68%Quebec +/- 3.17%Atlantic +/- 4.9%A9CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYBC23%38%25%0%14%AB51%19%23%0%8%SK45%29%19%0%8%MB44%15%37%0%4%QC20%32%30%14%4%ON35%29%30%0%6%Atlantic28%23%43%0%6%30252015105032%29%29%4%7%CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTY32%29%29%4%7%-6%+2%+4%-+1%WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? (UNDECIDED ONLY)A10CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDED18-343%19%17%3%3%57%35-495%26%11%2%1%54%50-649%13%14%3%2%61%65+9%16%15%1%2%58%Female5%19%15%3%1%57%Male10%16%13%1%1%58%CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDBC5%26%10%x1%58%AB18%11%10%x2%60%SK27%14%5%x2%52%MB7%17%3%x6%68%QC3%11%11%12%6%64%ON6%22%21%x1%50%Atlantic2%8%12%x2%71%7%18%14%2%2%58%CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UDA11CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTY31%30%29%4%6%CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYBC22%40%25%0%13%AB50%19%23%0%7%SK46%29%18%0%8%MB44%17%34%0%5%QC20%32%30%15%3%ON33%31%31%0%5%Atlantic26%24%43%0%7%30252015105031%30%29%4%6%CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD-4%+1%+3%+1%-A12Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you wil change you mind before the next election?lCONSERVATIVESTRONG75%MIGHT CHANGE MIND23%DONT KNOW2%NDPSTRONG57%MIGHT CHANGE MIND35%DONT KNOW8%LIBERALSTRONG60%MIGHT CHANGE MIND34%DONT KNOW6%And who would be your second choice?A1330252015105011%31%31%4%9%14%CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UDA14LEANING AND DECIDED Recently, the federal election campaign began with a vote set for October 19th. How closely have you been following this story?VERY CLOSELYSOMEWHAT CLOSELYNOT TOO CLOSELYNOT AT ALL CLOSELYNOT AWARESAMPLE18-3433%48%10%6%4%35835-4939%37%16%7%1%98550-6447%33%15%4%1%185665+44%37%11%5%3%2202Female38%39%15%5%3%3028Male43%39%11%6%1%2373VERY CLOSELYSOMEWHAT CLOSELYNOT TOO CLOSELYNOT AT ALL CLOSELYNOT AWARESAMPLEBC36%40%16%5%3%746AB47%40%9%3%1%744SK39%38%14%6%2%592MB38%42%13%6%1%626QC43%35%14%5%2%953ON39%40%12%7%2%1340Atlantic39%38%13%7%2%40040%39%13%6%2%Very Closely Somewhat Closely Not Too Closely Not At All Closely Not AwareA15Do you think you will follow the campaign very closely, and if so, when? [Did not answer very closely on previous question only]SEPTEMBERBEGINNING OF OCTOBERLAST WEEK OF ELECTIONWILL NOT FOLLOWNOT SURESAMPLE18-3426%46%16%10%2%24535-4929%34%15%14%8%60950-6423%33%15%17%12%99665+24%35%17%12%12%1210Female26%36%18%12%8%1742Male26%39%13%15%8%1318SEPTEMBERBEGINNING OF OCTOBERLAST WEEK OF ELECTIONWILL NOT FOLLOWNOT SURESAMPLEBC25%33%19%14%9%450AB25%37%18%11%10%394SK27%35%16%14%7%342MB30%36%16%11%7%363QC25%37%15%14%9%513ON27%39%14%13%7%766Atlantic24%36%19%15%7%23226%37%16%13%8%September Beginning of October Last Week Will Not Follow Not SureA16Last week Macleans hosted a leaders debate for the federal election. This was the onlydebate so far to which Green party leader Elizabeth May was invited. Do you approve or disapprove of inviting Elizabeth May to future debates?STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE18-3462%20%6%1%11%35835-4965%15%5%8%6%98550-6462%15%6%6%11%185665+62%14%8%5%10%2202Female66%15%5%4%11%3028Male60%17%8%6%8%2373STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLEBC64%16%4%4%11%746AB59%15%11%10%6%744SK58%19%7%6%10%592MB56%21%7%7%9%626QC67%16%5%4%8%953ON62%16%7%5%10%1340Atlantic62%17%7%4%11%40063%16%6%5%10%APPROVE: 79% DISAPPROVE: 11%NOT SURE: 10%A17Recently, there have been a number of scandals involving the Senate of Canada. Whichfederal Leader do you trust most to x the problems in the Senate?STEPHEN HARPERTOM MULCAIR JUSTIN TRUDEAUGILLES DUCEPPEELIZABETH MAYNOT SURE SAMPLE18-3425%22%26%1%7%20%35835-4923%26%22%1%6%22%98550-6423%27%20%1%4%25%185665+25%21%26%1%3%24%2202Female19%25%25%1%5%25%3028Male29%24%21%1%5%20%2373STEPHEN HARPERTOM MULCAIR JUSTIN TRUDEAUGILLES DUCEPPEELIZABETH MAYNOT SURE SAMPLEBC17%28%19%x10%26%746AB40%18%22%x3%17%744SK33%23%16%x6%22%592MB33%16%23%x6%22%626QC16%28%26%5%2%23%953ON25%24%23%x6%22%1340Atlantic18%20%28%x6%28%40024%24%23%1%5%23%CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UDA18Would you say you feel more nancially secure, less secure, or about as secure as you felt ayear ago?MORE SECUREABOUT AS SECURELESS SECURE NOT SURESAMPLE18-3428%19%37%16%35835-497%37%50%5%98550-648%37%50%5%185665+12%40%41%7%2202Female11%32%48%9%3028Male18%33%41%8%2373MORE SECUREABOUT AS SECURELESS SECURE NOT SURESAMPLEBC12%30%48%10%746AB12%35%44%9%744SK14%35%42%9%592MB14%34%44%8%626QC14%31%47%7%953ON16%34%41%8%1340Atlantic15%32%46%8%40014%33%44%8%More Secure About As Secure Less Secure Not SureA19Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about thestate of the Canadian economy?OPTIMISTICPESSIMISTICNOT SURE SAMPLE18-3426%51%24%35835-4926%56%18%98550-6426%48%26%185665+33%35%32%2202Female23%50%26%3028Male31%46%23%2373OPTIMISTICPESSIMISTICNOT SURE SAMPLEBC23%47%31%746AB29%51%19%744SK28%48%24%592MB28%48%24%626QC23%54%23%953ON31%44%24%1340Atlantic24%49%28%40027%48%25%OPTIMISTIC: 27% PESSIMISTIC: 48%NOT SURE: 25%A20Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic aboutyour own familys nancial situation?OPTIMISTICPESSIMISTICNOT SURE SAMPLE18-3454%22%24%35835-4944%37%19%98550-6444%30%25%185665+51%19%30%2202Female44%30%26%3028Male53%25%22%2373OPTIMISTICPESSIMISTICNOT SURE SAMPLEBC45%26%29%746AB55%31%14%744SK51%26%24%592MB48%29%23%626QC44%30%26%953ON50%26%24%1340Atlantic44%28%28%40048%28%24%OPTIMISTIC: 48% PESSIMISTIC: 28%NOT SURE: 24%A21Do you think the economy is entering a recession or not?YES NO UNSURESAMPLE18-3460%20%20%35835-4964%20%15%98550-6464%12%23%185665+56%16%28%2202Female63%14%22%3028Male60%20%20%2373YES NO UNSURE SAMPLEBC64%14%22%746AB64%18%19%744SK59%18%23%592MB58%18%24%626QC67%15%19%953ON58%19%23%1340Atlantic58%18%24%40061%17%21%YES: 61% NO: 17%NOT SURE: 21%A22How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote Might vote Unlikely to vote And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecidedAnd which party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only]Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecidedDo you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Selected a Party Q2]Strong supporter Might change your mind Dont know And who would be your second choice? [Might Change/Dont Know Only]Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom MulcairLiberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecidedA23Recently, the federal election campaign began with a vote set for October 19th. How closely have you been following this story?Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not at all closely Not aware of this story Do you think you will follow the campaign very closely, and if so, when?You will follow the campaign closely in SeptemberYou think you will follow the campaign closely in the beginning of OctoberYou think you will follow the campaign closely during the last week of the electionYou think you will not follow the campaign closely at any pointNot sureLast week Macleans hosted a leaders debate for the federal election. This was the only debate so far to which Green party leader Elizabeth May was invited. Do you approve or disapprove of inviting Elizabeth May to future debates?Strongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveNot sure Recently, there have been a number of scandals involving the Senate of Canada. Which federal Leader do you trust most to x the problems in the Senate?Stephen Harper of the Conservative PartyTom Mulcair of the NDPTrudeau of the Liberal PartyGilles Duceppe of the Bloc Qubcois Elizabeth May of the Green PartyNot sureWould you say you feel more nancially secure, less secure, or about as secure as you felt a year ago?Press 1 for more securePress 2 for about as securePress 3 for less securePress 4 if you are not sure Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of the Canadian economy?OptimisticPessimisticNot sureThinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own familys nancial situation?OptimisticPessimisticNot sureDo you think the economy is entering a recession or not?YesNoNot Sure A24CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE mainstreetresearch.caTWITTER @MainStResearchFACEBOOKfb.com/mainstresearch 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reservedMainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public afairs. Diferentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority LiberalgovernmentinBritishColumbia,andamajorityLiberalgovernmentinOntario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.


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