Mainstreet - National Capital Region

8/20/2019 Mainstreet - National Capital Region

1/19

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 673 Pontiac residents, 661 Ottawa Centre residents, 685 Otta

West-Nepean residents, 630 Kanata-Carleton residents and 655 Nepean residents by Smart IVR™ onOctober 4, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones. Pontiac margin of error:

3.74%, Ottawa Centre margin of error: +/- 3.79%, Ottawa West-Nepean margin of error: +/- 3.72%

Kanata-Carleton margin of error: +/- 3.89% and Nepean margin of error: +/- 3.81%, 19 times out 20. Results were weighed by age & gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.


2/19

THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

October 8, 2015 (Toronto, ON) - With less than two weeks to go, a new set of fiMainstreet/Postmedia riding polls in the National Capital Region finds three races too close to cThe Liberals are locked in a tight battle with the Conservatives for Nepean and Kanata-Carletand the NDP for Pontiac. Things are less tight in Ottawa West—Nepean and Ottawa Centre, whe Liberals holding a commanding lead in the former and the NDP comfortably ahead in atter.

PONTIAC

In Pontiac, the race between the Liberals and NDP is too close to call,” continued Maggi. “Nncumbent Mathieu Ravignat (28%) is only a single point above Liberal candidate Will Am

27%). With Conservative candidate Benjamin Woodman polling at only 17%, it’s clear that votn Pontiac want change, but haven’t made a clear decision as whether the NDP or Liberepresents the best shift in direction. Add the fact that it was Conservative up until 2011, a

Pontiac is definitely a riding worth watching.”

OTTAWA CENTRE

Paul Dewar looks safe in Ottawa Centre, despite an energetic campaign from the Liberemarked Maggi. “The incumbent MP leads Liberal challenger Catherine McKenna 42% to 3

among decided and leaning voters, while Conservative candidate Damian Konstantinakos briup the rear with 22%. With Dewar looking comfortable, the one wild card in this race is that ohalf of each party’s supporters describe their support as “strong.” If the NDP continues to decl

his seat could be in play. But for now, Dewar’s popularity is holding.”

OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN

With a nearly 20-point lead, Liberal candidate Anita Vandenbeld looks set to take OttaWest-Nepean,” predicted Maggi. Vandenbeld tops Conservative candidate Abdul Abdi 47%29% among decided and leaning voters in the riding formerly held by prominent Conservacabinet minister John Baird. NDP candidate Marlene Rivier stands at 20%. Vandenbeld shouldeeling confident as we approach election day, especially given her commanding lead (54

among voters ages 50 to 64.”

KANATA-CARLETONThings are going down to the wire in Kanata-Carleton, with a mere two points separating Conservatives and Liberals”, stated Maggi. “In this new riding, much of which was formeepresented by Chief Government Whip Gordon O’Connor, Conservative candidate Walter Paops Liberal Karen McCrimmon 45% to 43% among decided and leaning voters. At 8%, N

candidate John Hansen is not a factor. With large numbers of both Liberal and Conservatupports saying they’re “certain” to vote, Kanata-Carleton is an exciting race to watch.”

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyrig

The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republis

with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmed


3/19

NEPEAN

“Much like their neighbours in Kanata, voters in Nepean are nearly evenly split between the teading parties,” noted Maggi. “Liberal candidate Chandra Arya (42%) is only a point aheadConservative Andy Wang (41%), well within the margin of error. NDP candidate Sean Devine lat 13%. As in Kanata-Carleton, large numbers of Liberal and Conservative supporters say the“certain to vote,” making Nepean another contest to follow on election night.”

ABOUT MAINSTREET

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three leof government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian puaffairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majogovernment in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recenMainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last November’s Toronto mayoral election.

-30-

Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, 613-698-5524, [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyrig

The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republis

with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postme


4/19

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

BENJAMIN WOODMAN (CPC)MATHIEU RAVIGNAT (NDP)WILL AMOS (LPC)NICOLAS LEPAGE (BQ)

COLIN GRIFFITHS (GPC)SAMPLE

Certain

17%

29%

28%

6%

2%18%

Likely17%30%36%0%

0%18%

Unlike18%22%42%18%

0%0%

Might

17%

20%

30%

33%

0%0%

BENJAMIN WOODMAN (CPC)MATHIEU RAVIGNAT (NDP)WILL AMOS (LPC)NICOLAS LEPAGE (BQ)COLIN GRIFFITHS (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-34

21%

27%

23%

6%

1%

22%

140

35-4910%33%33%9%2%13%172

50-64

17%

30%

39%

6%

2%

16%

213

65+19%26%30%6%4%

30%148

Fem11%32%

30%6%2%19%36

Male

23%

25%

27%

8%

2%

15%

304

PONTIAC

Woodman Ravignat Amos Griffiths UndecidedLepage

All Voters Decided & Leaning

1 7 %

2 9 %

2 8 %

2 %

7 %

1 7 %

1 9 %

3 6 %

3 4 %

3 %

8 %


5/19

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there achance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MIND

DON’T KNOW

CPC

51%

39%

10%

NDP48%36%

15%

GPC

32%34%

35%

LPC

52%

33%

14%

And, is there anyone you would lean towards?

PONTIAC

Woodman Ravignat Amos Griffiths UndecidedLepage

BQ61%30%

10%

5%

23%

13%

3%3%

53%


6/19


DAMIAN KONSTANTINAKOS (CPC)PAUL DEWAR (NDP)

CATHERINE MCKENNA (LPC)TOM MILROY (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-34

20%

41%

20%8%

10%

117

35-4913%43%

28%3%13%127

50-64

15%

33%

33%5%

14%

178

65+27%32%

27%3%11%239

Fema19%37%

27%3%14%365

Male

17%

39%

27%7%

10%

296

DAMIAN KONSTANTINAKOS (CPC)PAUL DEWAR (NDP)CATHERINE MCKENNA (LPC)TOM MILROY (GPC)SAMPLE

Certain

18%

38%

27%

5%

12%

Likely16%18%34%3%

28%

Unlike49%34%3%0%14%

Might

14%

46%

27%

0%

12%

OTTAWA CENTRE

Konstantinakos Dewar McKenna Milroy Undecided


1 8 %

3 8 %

2 7 %

5 %

1 2 %

2 2 %

4 2 %

3 0 %

6 %


7/19



DON’T KNOW

CPC

49%

38%

13%

NDP50%35%

15%

GPC50%28%

22%

LPC

51%

36%

13%


OTTAWA CENTRE

Konstantinakos Dewar McKenna Milroy Undecided

17%

17%

12%

3%

51%


8/19


ABDUL ABDI (CPC)MARLENE RIVIER (NDP)ANITA VANDENBELD (LPC)

MARK BROOKS (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-34

25%

22%

33%

6%

13%

108

35-4918%24%40%

3%15%164

50-64

22%

10%

54%

4%

9%

159

65+44%9%33%

1%13%254

Fem2417%39

1%2037

Male

27%

18%

43%

6%

5%

314

ABDUL ABDI (CPC)MARLENE RIVIER (NDP)ANITA VANDENBELD (LPC)MARK BROOKS (GPC)SAMPLE

Certain

25%

17%

43%

3%

11%

Likely43%23%12%8%15%

Unlike12%0%0%0%88%

Might

6%

16%

11%

16%

52%

OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN

Abdi Rivier Vandenbeld Brooks Undecided


2 6 %

1 7 %

4 1 %

4 %

1 3 %

2 9 %

2 0 %

4 7 %

4 %


9/19



DON’T KNOW

CPC

87%

10%

3%

NDP69%30%

1%

GPC65%25%

10%

LPC

62%

32%

6%


OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN

Abdi Rivier Vandenbeld Brooks Undecided

10%

9%

21%

3%

57%


10/19


KANATA-CARLETON

Pamic Hansen McCrimmon West Undecided

WALTER PAMIC (CPC)JOHN HANSEN (NDP)KAREN MCCRIMMON (LPC)ANDREW WEST (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-34

32%3%

50%

2%

13%

108

35-49

37%10%34%4%15%129

50-64

39%7%

35%

2%

16%

179

65+

53%6%27%3%12%214

Fem

407%343%17%40

Male

38%7%

41%

3%

12%

229

WALTER PAMIC (CPC)JOHN HANSEN (NDP)KAREN MCCRIMMON (LPC)ANDREW WEST (GPC)

UNDECIDED

Certain

38%

7%

40%

3%

12%

Likely54%6%6%2%

32%

Unlik16%20%36%0%

27%

Might

42%

6%

0%

0%

52%


3 9 %

7 %

3 8 %

3 %

1 4 %

4 5 %

8 %

4 3 %

4 %


11/19

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there chance you will change your mind before the next election?


DON’T KNOW

CPC

79%

17%

3%

NDP57%33%

10%

GPC36%46%

18%

LPC

61%

29%

10%


KANATA-CARLETON

Pamic Hansen McCrimmon WestUndecided

15%

6%

12%

8%

59%


12/19


ANDY WANG (CPC)SEAN DEVINE (NDP)CHANDRA ARYA (LPC)JEAN-LUC COOKE (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-34

24%

8%

48%

0%

19%

74

35-4931%13%33%2%22%230

50-64

39%

9%

33%

3%

17%

179

65+51%6%

29%2%12%172

Fem3712%322%1835

Male

32%

7%

41%

2%

18%

302

ANDY WANG (CPC)SEAN DEVINE (NDP)CHANDRA ARYA (LPC)JEAN-LUC COOKE (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain

36%

10%

36%

2%

13%

Likely34%4%36%0%26%

Unlik15%4%28%7%

46%

Might

26%

4%

41%

0%

29%

NEPEAN

Wang Devine Arya Cooke Undecided


3 5 %

1 0 %

3 6 %

2 %

1 8 %

4 1 %

1 3 %

4 2 %

4 %


13/19



DON’T KNOW

CPC

71%

22%

6%

NDP67%23%

10%

GPC71%29%

0%

LPC

61%

29%

9%


NEPEAN

Wang Devine Arya Cooke Undecided

15%

14%

13%

9%

49%


14/19

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote

Might voteUnlikely to vote

Not eligible or not likely to vote


Benjamin Woodman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Mathieu Ravignat of the NDP led by Tom MulcairWill Amos of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau

Nicolas Lepage of the Bloc Quebecois led by Gilles DuceppeColin Griffiths of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will chang

your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Don’t know

And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]

Benjamin Woodman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperMathieu Ravignat of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Will Amos of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauNicolas Lepage of the Bloc Quebecois led by Gilles Duceppe

Colin Griffiths of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided

PONTIAC SCRIPT


15/19


Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote

Might vote

Unlikely to voteNot eligible or not likely to vote


Damian Konstantinakos of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Paul Dewar of the NDP led by Tom MulcairCatherine McKenna of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau

Tom Milroy of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided



Strong supporter

Might change your mindDon’t know


Damian Konstantinakos of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperPaul Dewar of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Catherine McKenna of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauTom Milroy of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

OTTAWA CENTRE SCRIPT


16/19


Absolutely certain to vote

Likely to voteMight vote

Unlikely to vote



Abdul Abdi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Marlene Rivier of the NDP led by Tom MulcairAnita Vandenbeld of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauMark Brooks of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided




Don’t know


Abdul Abdi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperMarlene Rivier of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Anita Vandenbeld of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau

Mark Brooks of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided

OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN SCRIPT


17/19




Unlikely to vote



Walter Pamic of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

John Hansen of the NDP led by Tom MulcairKaren McCrimmon of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauAndrew West of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided




Don’t know


Walter Pamic of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperJohn Hansen of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Karen McCrimmon of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau

Andrew West of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided

KANATA-CARLETON SCRIPT


18/19




Unlikely to vote



Andy Wang of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Sean Devine of the NDP led by Tom MulcairChandra Arya of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauJean-Luc Cooke of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided




Don’t know


Andy Wang of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperSean Devine of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Chandra Arya of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau

Jean-Luc Cooke of the Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided

NEPEAN SCRIPT


19/19

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at allthree levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentatoron Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots ofpublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majorityLiberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoralelection.

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Mainstreet - National Capital Region

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