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Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

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A new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls finds the Liberals battling the Conservatives in key Ontario battlegrounds while they battle the NDP in two ridings in the city of Toronto.
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Page 1: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding
Page 2: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

LIBERALS, TORIES FIGHTING IN KEY BATTLEGROUND RIDINGS

October 3, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls finds the Liberals battling the Conservatives in key Ontario battlegrounds while they battle the NDP in two ridings in the city of Toronto. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Polls have a maximum margin of error of +/-3.88%, 19 times out of 20.

BRAMPTON EAST“Brampton East is shaping up to be one of the closest races in the GTA,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “With the Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked at 31% each among all voters, this will be decided by whoever has the best ground game and organization. The NDP also have significant strength in this riding with 21% among all voters and are poised to play spoilers in this riding. As we have noted repeatedly, the strength of the Conservative vote is highest, with 81%, that may be a sign of who has the edge in this close battle.”

CHATHAM-KENT-LEAMINGTONChatham-Kent-Leamington is a Conservative bastion and that looks likely to continue in 2015. Although the Liberal candidate has a 6% lead over the 3rd place NDP among all voters, a look at leaning voters shows a 1 point margin for the NDP. This narrows the lead to just 4% for the Liberals among decided and leaning voters. With a relatively high percentage of voters in this riding still undecided, at 21%, and still over 2 weeks to go, there still might be surprises here on election day.

DON VALLEY WESTDon Valley West is a hotly contested rematch of the 2011 election. This time, it's incumbent MP John Carmichael taking on Liberal contender Rob Oliphant, who was the MP until 2011. The Liberal candidate holds a significant lead, among all voters, the Liberals lead by 11%, 41% to 30% for the Conservatives with the NDP at just 11%. With the Undecided vote at just 15%, this race looks to be out of reach for the incumbent as the lead increase to 12% among decided and leaning voters.

ORLEANSOrleans is one of the most closely watched races in Canada, and of particular interest to observers inside the Ottawa political scene. This is where Liberal star candidate and former general, Andrew Leslie is up against Conservative incumbent Royal Galipeau and NDP contender, Nancy Tremblay. With a high undecided rate of 22% and significant Green party support of 6% among all voters, this close race is far from a foregone conclusion. Leslie leads by 6% among all voters and 7% among decided and leaning voters. The NDP, at 19% of decided and leaning voters, could again play spoilers in this riding.

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

A2

Page 3: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWESTIn Scarborough Southwest, former police Chief Bill Blair is taking on NDP incumbent Dan Harris for the Liberals. This is another closely watched contest, and rightfully so. With a 2% lead among all voters, and just 1% among decided and leaning voters, Bill Blair and the Liberals are looking for a major upset against a fading NDP. This is a race very much the opposite of many we have looked at, with a strong Conservative campaign looking to play spoiler. This is a very polarized riding, with just 12% being undecided, this is likely to be decided by ground game and organization on election day.

UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALEUniversity Rosedale is a new riding for the 2015 election, after the riding of Toronto Centre was redistributed post by-election. Incumbent Chrystia Freeland, a star candidate for the Liberal party trails the NDP star candidate Jennifer Hollett by 6%. The continued strength of the NDP in the downtown core of Toronto may prove a di�cult obstacle for the Liberal incumbent to overcome, but with undecided votes leaning towards Freeland, it's too early to count out Freeland.

ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.

Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

METHODOLOGYMainstreet surveyed a random sample of riding residents by Smart IVR™ on September 28-29 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.

SAMPLES & MARGINS OF ERRORBrampton East: 684, +/- 3.73%, 19 times out of 20Chatham Kent Leamington: 625, +/- 3.88%, 19 times out of 20Don Valley West: 688, +/- 3.72%, 19 times out of 20Orleans: 660, +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20Scarborough Southwest: 654, +/- 3.83%, 19 times out of 20University Rosedale: 644, +/- 3.84%, 19 times out of 20

Page 4: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

A4

NAVAL BAJAJ (CPC)HARBALJIT SINGH KAHLON (NDP)RAJ GREWAL (LPC)KYLE LACROIX (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain32%22%32%3%11%

Likely25%14%38%3%21%

Unlikely26%8%10%36%21%

Might18%10%15%0%58%

NAVAL BAJAJ (CPC)HARBALJIT SINGH KAHLON (NDP)RAJ GREWAL (LPC)KYLE LACROIX (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3430%17%36%4%13%93

35-4927%22%29%5%17%185

50-6437%21%30%3%9%172

65+30%23%32%3%12%234

Female25%24%36%2%13%384

Male37%17%27%6%13%300

BRAMPTON EAST

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

All Voters Decided & Leaning

31%

21%

31%

4% 13%

35%

24%

36%

5%

Bajaj Singh Kahlon Grewal Lacroix Undecided

Page 5: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

A5

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW

CPC81%16%3%

NDP52%44%5%

LPC62%32%5%

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

Bajaj Singh Kahlon Grewal Lacroix Undecided

BRAMPTON EAST

6%

6%

5%

3%

80%

Page 6: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

A6

DAVE VAN KESTEREN (CPC)TONY WALSH (NDP)KATIE OMSTEAD (LPC)MARK VERCOUTEREN (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain41%18%20%4%17%

Likely17%4%

30%4%

46%

Unlikely26%27%21%3%23%

Might15%6%

39%1%

40%

DAVE VAN KESTEREN (CPC)TONY WALSH (NDP)KATIE OMSTEAD (LPC)MARK VERCOUTEREN (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3429%22%17%5%

28%54

35-4939%18%22%4%17%102

50-6437%16%26%3%18%228

65+43%8%

26%0%23%241

Female39%13%23%2%

23%366

Male33%20%23%5%

20%259

CHATHAM-KENT--LEAMINGTON

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

All Voters Decided & Leaning

36%

17%

23%

3% 21%

45%

23%

27%

4%

Van Kesteren Walsh Omstead Vercouteren Undecided

Page 7: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW

CPC85%11%4%

NDP57%26%17%

LPC52%32%16%

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

A7

CHATHAM-KENT--LEAMINGTON

17%

19%

6%

1%

57%

Van Kesteren Walsh Omstead Vercouteren Undecided

Page 8: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

A7

JOHN CARMICHAEL (CPC)SYEDA RIAZ (NDP)ROB OLIPHANT (LPC)NATALIE HUNT (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain31%11%42%2%15%

Likely29%27%28%6%11%

Unlikely23%8%

43%0%26%

Might32%0%

60%0%8%

JOHN CARMICHAEL (CPC)SYEDA RIAZ (NDP)ROB OLIPHANT (LPC)NATALIE HUNT (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3423%15%52%0%11%117

35-4937%13%27%5%18%156

50-6429%7%

45%2%17%168

65+34%10%40%2%14%247

Female31%10%41%1%17%388

Male30%13%41%3%13%300

Carmichael Riaz Oliphant Hunt Undecided

DON VALLEY WEST

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

All Voters Decided & Leaning

30%

11%

41% 2%

15%

35%

13%

47%

4%

Page 9: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

A8

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW

CPC70%29%1%

NDP63%18%19%

LPC64%27%9%

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

Carmichael Riaz Oliphant Hunt Undecided

DON VALLEY WEST

8%

5%

7%

9%

70%

Page 10: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

ROYAL GALIPEAU (CPC)NANCY TREMBLAY (NDP)ANDREW LESLIE (LPC)RAPHAEL MORIN (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3420%12%39%7%

22%131

35-4926%16%25%6%27%129

50-6429%15%30%7%19%196

65+33%14%34%3%15%204

Female28%13%32%6%22%362

Male24%16%32%7%

22%298

ROYAL GALIPEAU (CPC)NANCY TREMBLAY (NDP)ANDREW LESLIE (LPC)RAPHAEL MORIN (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain28%16%33%6%18%

Likely36%7%31%2%

25%

Unlikely2%0%5%0%61%

Might14%7%

35%32%44%

Galipeau Tremblay Leslie Morin Undecided

A9

ORLEANS

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

All Voters Decided & Leaning

26%

14%

32%

6% 22%

33%

19%

40%

8%

Page 11: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW

CPC85%7%8%

NDP62%23%14%

LPC68%26%5%

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

A10

ORLEANS

Galipeau Tremblay Leslie Morin Undecided

10%

9%

14%

3%

64%

Page 12: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

A12

ROSHAN NALLARATNAM (CPC)DAN HARRIS (NDP)BILL BLAIR (LPC)TOMMY TAYLOR (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain17%34%34%13%3%

Likely26%30%37%6%1%

Unlikely16%34%39%11%0%

Might16%24%55%6%0%

ROSHAN NALLARATNAM (CPC)DAN HARRIS (NDP)BILL BLAIR (LPC)TOMMY TAYLOR (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3413%37%34%15%1%105

35-4923%35%26%13%4%141

50-6418%30%38%11%2%202

65+16%31%41%9%2%206

Female18%28%39%13%2%356

Male18%39%30%11%2%298

Nallaratnam Harris Blair Taylor Undecided

SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

All Voters Decided & Leaning

18%

33%

35%

2% 12%

21%

37%

40%

3%

Page 13: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

A13

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW

CPC72%18%10%

NDP49%39%11%

LPC63%24%14%

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

Nallaratnam Harris Blair Taylor Undecided

SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST

27%

9%

4%0%

59%

Page 14: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

A14

KARIM JIVRAJ (CPC)JENNIFER HOLLETT (NDP)CHRYSTIA FREELAND (LPC)NICK WRIGHT (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain8%

43%32%3%16%

Likely46%21%21%2%9%

Unlikely4%23%19%0%54%

Might21%16%42%0%19%

KARIM JIVRAJ (CPC)JENNIFER HOLLETT (NDP)CHRYSTIA FREELAND (LPC)NICK WRIGHT (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3420%22%38%5%

20%85

35-495%

40%31%1%

19%131

50-6413%44%24%2%18%202

65+8%

45%32%2%13%226

Female12%37%33%1%

18%350

Male12%38%30%3%18%294

Jivraj Hollett Freeland Wright Undecided

UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

All Voters Decided & Leaning

12%

37%

31% 2%

18%

15%

43%

39%

3%

Page 15: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

A15

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE

Jivraj Hollett Freeland Wright Undecided

27%

9%

4%0%

59%

CPC83%15%2%

NDP55%41%5%

LPC63%30%6%

Page 16: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

Naval Bajaj of the Conservative Party Harbaljit Singh Kahlon of the NDP

Raj Grewal of the Liberal PartyKyle Lacroix of the Green Party

Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]

Naval Bajaj of the Conservative Party Harbaljit Singh Kahlon of the NDP

Raj Grewal of the Liberal PartyKyle Lacroix of the Green Party

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Don’t know

BRAMPTON EAST SCRIPT

A16

Page 17: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? Dave van Kesteren of the Conservative Party

Tony Walsh of the NDP Katie Omstead of the Liberal Party

Mark Vercouteren of the Green Party Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]

Dave van Kesteren of the Conservative PartyTony Walsh of the NDP

Katie Omstead of the Liberal Party Mark Vercouteren of the Green Party

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Don’t know

CHATHAM-KENT--LEAMINGTON SCRIPT

A17

Page 18: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

John Carmichael of the Conservative Party Syeda Riaz of the NDP

Rob Oliphant of the Liberal Party Natalie Hunt of the Green Party

Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]

John Carmichael of the Conservative Party Syeda Riaz of the NDP

Rob Oliphant of the Liberal Party Natalie Hunt of the Green Party

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Don’t know

DON VALLEY WEST SCRIPT

A18

Page 19: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? Royal Galipeau of the Conservative Party Nancy Tremblay of the NDP Andrew Leslie of the Liberal Party Raphael Morin of the Green Party

Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]

Royal Galipeau of the Conservative Party Nancy Tremblay of the NDP Andrew Leslie of the Liberal Party Raphael Morin of the Green Party

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Don’t know

ORLEANS SCRIPT

A19

Page 20: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? Roshan Nallaratnam of the Conservative Party

Dan Harris of the NDP Bill Blair of the Liberal Party

Tommy Taylor of the Green Party Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]

Roshan Nallaratnam of the Conservative Party Dan Harris of the NDP

Bill Blair of the Liberal Party Tommy Taylor of the Green Party

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Don’t know

SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST SCRIPT

A20

Page 21: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

Karim Jivraj of the Conservative Party Jennifer Hollett of the NDP

Chrystia Freeland of the Liberal PartyNick Wright of the Green Party

Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]

Karim Jivraj of the Conservative Party Jennifer Hollett of the NDP

Chrystia Freeland of the Liberal PartyNick Wright of the Green Party

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Don’t know

UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE SCRIPT

A21

Page 22: Mainstreet - Ontario Riding

© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.

Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.


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