Maj Gen Muniruzzaman the Security Dimensions of Climate Change COP15

7/30/2019 Maj Gen Muniruzzaman the Security Dimensions of Climate Change COP15

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The Security Dimensions ofClimate Change

Major General Muniruzzaman (Retd)

President

Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS)1


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Cl im a t e c h a n g e i s a n a l l en com p a s s i n g

t h r e a t , d i r e c t l y a f f e c t i n g t h e e n v i r o n m e n t ,

t h e e co n o m y , h e a l t h a n d sa f e t y . M a n y co m m u n i t i e s f a c e m u l t i p l e s t r e ss e s w i t h

s e r i o u s s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l a n d s e c u r i t y

im p l i c a t i o n s , b o t h d om e s t i ca l l y a n d a b r o a d . M i l l i o n s o f p e o p l e a r e u p r o o t e d o r

p e r m a n e n t l y o n t h e m o v e a s a r e su l t .

M a n y m o r e m i l l i o n s w i l l f o l l o w .

K o f i A n n a n


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Introduction

Climate change is recognised as a major security

issue that poses serious global threats.

Climate change affects individuals and communities

around the world.

Climate change brings hunger, disease, poverty and

poses a threat to social and, political stability.

Climate change can heighten existing social and

political tensions or can lead to new ones.

If unchecked, climate change is likely to aggravate

old and trigger new tensions.

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Understanding Climate Security

The impacts of climate change have now

constituted political, economic, societal and

environmental threats to the international

community.

Climate security is the protection of human

civilisation from the danger and loss that can

be caused by climate change.

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Changes in Temperature


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The security dimensions of climate

change

Mainly two dimensions:

1. Human security

2.Hard Security

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Human Security Dimensions

Food security

Water security

Health security

Migration/IDP Development

Poverty

Energy security


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Threat to food security

Reduced agricultural productivity is

potentially the most worrisome

consequence of cl imate change

If global warming rises to 3 0 C it is

likely that the number of people

suffering from hunger will increase by250 million to 550 million (Stern

2006:72)

The combination of various climatechange impacts will overstretch

adaptive capacities in agricultural

production (IPCC, 2007)

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Threat to food security

Desertification and soil erosion will

lead to a decrease in available

farmland and a reduction in potentialyields (IPCC, 2007)

Food production in river deltas may

be substantially constrained due tosea level r ise and coastal erosion.

According to German AdvisoryCouncil on Global Change agricultural

production from rainfed agriculture

could fall by about 50% in some

regions by 2020 (WBGU 2007)


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Possible Effects of Environmental Change on

Agricultural Productivity

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Sea level rise

Extremeweather events

Frequentdroughts

Erosion andsilting

Globalwarming,Deforestation,Degradation of

agriculturalland

Reduced orconstrained

Regionalagricultural

productivity


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Water Crisis

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Climate change affects the

nature of global rainfall,evaporation, snow, stream

flow and other factors that

affect water supply and

quality.

Water scarcity and reducedquality threaten the very

survival of those affected


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Water Crisis

1.1 billion people are currently without access to safe drinkingwater.

According to IPCC, the availability of water will decrease inabsolute terms as a result of global warming. By mid centurysome regions, including the MENA region and southern Africawill see a decline of between 10% and 30%.

According to IPCC, worlds population that will suffer as aresult of water stress range from 262 million to approximatelythree bill ion by 2080.

Likely to threaten irrigation and food production

Hinders economic development and damages ecosystems.


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Areas vulnerable to climate related

water challenges

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German Advisory Council on Global Change


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Risk to Human Health

A changing climate affects the essential

ingredients of maintaining good health: clean

air and water, sufficient food and adequate

shelter.

Every year the health of 235 million people is

likely to be seriously affected by gradual

environmental degradation due to climate

change.

http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf
http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf


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Risk to Human Health

Climate change is projected to cause over

150,000 deaths annually and almost 45 million

people are estimated to be malnourished

because of climate change.

Climate change-related diarrhoea incidences are

projected to amount to over 180 million cases

annually, resulting in almost 95,000 fatalities.

Source:http://www.eird.org/pub

lications/humanimpactreport.pdf
http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf


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Impact of Climate Change onHuman Health

Climate

Change

Human Exposure

Regionalweather change;Heat waves;

Extremeweather; Sealevel rise;Salinity intrusion

Health Effects

Temperature -related illnessand deathWaterbornediseasesAir pollutionrelated healtheffectsInfectious and

other healtheffects


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Threat to development

Threatens the long terms sustainability ofdevelopment process.

Economic resources which would normally be

channeled directly into the productionprocess instead have to be spent onadaptation measures.

Th e d r o p s i n g r o w t h a n d p r o s p e r i t y a r e l i k e l y t o b e

v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l i f c l i m a t e ch a n g e co n t i n u e s

u n a b a t e d a n d c a u s e s g r e a t l y in t e n s i f i ed c l i m a t e

i m p a c t s .

(German Advisory Council on Global Change)


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Threat to development

Infrastructures of climate-

sensitive areas face seriousvulnerability

To the extent that industry isaffected, large economies arethreatened with lossesamounting to several percentageof GDP, while in smaller regionsreductions of up to 25% mayeven occur.

( GTZ, Climate Change and Security: Challenges for

German Development Cooperation ,2008)


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Climate Change: Threat to MDGs

MDGs Threat to MDGsGoal 1: Eradicate extreme

hunger

and poverty

Regional food security is undermined

and vulnerability of poor people

increases

Goal 2: Achieve universal

primary

education

Displacement and migration of families

makes education a low priority

Goal 3: Promote gender equality Women make up two-thirds of worldspoor and are more adversely impacted

by disasters

Goal 7: Ensure environmental

sustainability

Climate change causes fundamental

alterations in ecosystemsGoal 8: Develop a global

partnership for development

The lack of adequate investment for

adaptation acts as a significant drag on

humanitarian assistance and

development.http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf
http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf


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Poverty

Climate change compounds

existing poverty bydestroying livelihoods.

Climate change drives

poverty through a vicious

circle of reduced crop yieldand resulting lower income


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Poverty

About 60 percent of developing

nations workforce, about 1.5

billion people, are employed in

agriculture, livestock, fisheries

and tourism

More than ten million people

have fallen into poverty todaybecause of climate change

Source:http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf
http://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdfhttp://www.eird.org/publications/humanimpactreport.pdf


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Migration/IDPs

Changes in local and regional climatic

conditions may severely restrictlivelihood options for large groups indeveloping countries.

Climate changes may directly challengebasic subsistence of alreadydisadvantaged communities in the

region, thereby further increasing theirvulnerability across social, economicand institutional settings


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Migration/IDPs

Increasing local vulnerability

could potentially trigger large-scale displacement and migration

from one region to other in search

of new avenues for employment

and/or settlement.

Loss of livelihoods will trigger

IDPs in vulnerable regions.

Pressure on unplanned urban

areas

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Energy Security

Over the coming decades, the world faces a

daunting challenge in meeting growing globalenergy needs while mitigating the impacts of global

climate change.

According to ADB climate change poses

fundamental threats to food and energy security.

Developing countries will severely be affected.


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Hard Security Dimensions

Inter-state conflict

Regional destabilization

Intra-state conflict

State vulnerability Social fragmentation

Vulnerability of nuclear

zones


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Rising tension

Localised war

Inter-state conflict/war


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For centuries, wars have been fought for

territorial expansion, ideological or religious

dominance, and national pride. In the future,

as climate change progresses and its effectsbecome more pronounced, conflicts

between states over natural resources could

increasingly take centre-stage.Byers & Dragojlovic


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Regional destabilisation

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for

instability in some of the most volatile regions ofthe world.

Projected climate change will seriously

exacerbate already marginal living standards in

many Asian, African, and Middle Eastern nations,

causing widespread political instability and thelikelihood of failed state.


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Intra-state conflict

Ethnic conflict Civil strife

SocialFragmentation

Terrorism

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State Collapse

Vulnerable state Weak state

Fragile state

Failed state Non-state


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State Collapse

When climate change significantly orenvironmental conditions deteriorate

to the point that necessary resources

are not available, societies canbecome stressed sometimes to the

point of collapse

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CNA Report on the National Securityand the Threat of Climate Change


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Social Fragmentation

Competition over scarce

resources

Breakdown of traditionalestablished order.

Group versus groupconflict

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Social Fragmentation

An exercise last December at the National Defence

University, an educational institute that is overseenby the military, explored the potential impact of a

destructive flood in Bangladesh that sent hundreds

of thousands of refugees streaming into

neighboring India, touching off religious confl ict, the

spread of contagious diseases and vast damage to

infrastructure. It gets real complicated real

quickly, said Amanda J. Dory, the Deputy AssistantSecretary of Defense for Strategy

(The New York Times, 8th August, 2009)

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Conflict over resources

Resource scarcity has thepotential to be a contributing

factor to conflict and instability.

Examples include: the 1994genocide in Rwanda, the

situation in Darfur, Sudan, the1970s downfall of EthiopianEmperior because of hisgovernment inabili ty to respond

to food shortages; and the 1974Nigerian coup that resultedlargely from an insufficientresponse to famine

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Vulnerability of nuclear zones


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Threat Multiplier

The impacts of climate change

will add significantly to existing

tensions.

It leads to economic collapses,

massive human migration and

escalation of existing conflictsbetween states.

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S it i k i t d ith li t h S l t d h t t


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Security r isks associated with climate change: Selected hotspots

B l d h A C St d


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Bangladesh: A Case Study

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC

following changes have been observed in climate trends,

variabili ty and extreme events in Bangladesh:

In Bangladesh, average temperature has registered an

increasing trend of about 1C in May and 0.5C in November

during the 14 year period from 1985 to 1998.

Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation

in Bay of Bengal has increased.

Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have

penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels

during the dry season.

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(Source:4th Assessement Report of IPCC,2007)


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Impacts of major floods in Bangladesh

Event Impact

1954 flood Affected 55% of the country

1974 flood Moderately severe, over 2000 deaths, affected 58% of the

country, followed by famine with over 30,000 deaths

1984 flood Inundated 52,520 sq. km. cost estimated at US$378 million

1987 flood Inundated over 50,000 sq.km. estimated damage US$1.0billion, 2055 deaths

1988 flood Inundated 61% of the country, estimated damage US$1.2billion, more than 45 million homeless, between 2000-6500

deaths

1998 flood 1100 deaths, inundated nearly 100000 sq.km., rendered 30million people homeless, damaged 500,000 homes, heavy loss

to infrastructure, estimated damage US$2.8 billion

2004 flood Inundation 38%, damage US$6.6 billion, deaths 700, affectedpeople nearly 3.8 million.

Source: Ministry of Environment and

Forest, Government of Bangladesh


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Is Bangladesh sinking?



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Year Storm surgeHeight(m)

Wind speed

Km/hr

Casualty (people)

1960 5.35 211 10000

1961 7.45 160 11468

1963 4.7 203 11520

1965 6.85 160 19279

1970 7.6 224 500000

1985 3.95 184 11069

1988 3.5 160 5704

1991 6.75 225 150000


Some devastating tropical cyclones since 1960

Source:www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdf

I t f l l i B l d h
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdfhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Resesarch/RAV/Presentations/orchid_detailed_research_report_2007.pdf


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Impact of sea level rise on Bangladesh

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Sea Level Rise: Worst Case Scenario


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Sea Level Rise: Worst Case Scenario

Salinity affected areas in the coastal and offshore regions


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Salinity affected areas in the coastal and offshore regions

of Bangladesh

Description Total cultivated area(ha) Saline

Area(ha)

Non-saline with

very slightly saline

4,25,490 1,15,370

(27%)

Very slightly saline

with slightly saline

4,20,420 3,09,190

(73%)

Slightly saline

with moderately

saline

2,57,270 2,40,220

(93%)

Moderately saline

with strongly

saline

1,98,890 1,98,890

(100%)

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Source:http://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdf

Spread of Climate sensitive Diseases in Bangladesh
http://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdfhttp://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdfhttp://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdfhttp://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdfhttp://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdf


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Spread of Climate-sensitive Diseases in Bangladesh

Diseases Total cases per period

Period Average annualcases

Diarrhoea 48302636 1988-2005 2842273

Skin diseases 23697833 1988-1996 2623092

Malaria 1018671 1974-2004 33956

Mental disorders 201881 1988-1996 22431

Dengue 19830 1999-2005 3305

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Source:http://www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/Regional_Health_Forum_volume_12_No_1_climat

e_change_and_its_impact

M j A f C
http://www.searo.who.int/Linkhttp://www.searo.who.int/Link


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Glacier Melting

Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other partsof the world.

In Northwest China, 27% of the glacier area will decline by 2050(equivalent to an ice volume of 16,184 km3), as will 10 to 15% of the

frozen soil area. IPCC made a forecast that if current trends continue, 80% of

Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 30 years.

The current trends of glacial melt suggest that the Ganges, Indus,Brahmaputra and other rivers across the northern Indian plain couldlikely become seasonal rivers in the near future.

Major Areas of Concern

Glacier Melting: A Growing Danger


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Glacier Melting: A Growing Danger

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I i t l di t


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Increasing natural disasters

Global warming ispredicted to increasethe frequency andintensity of tropical

storms, flash floods,landslides, and wildfires, and substantiallyalter precipitation

patterns in many partsof the world

Response Mechanism


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Response Mechanism

Global information and early warning system must beexpanded

Climate protection must be integrated as a cross-cutting

theme into poverty reduction strategies from the outset. Role of the military.

Contingency planning

Knowledge, information, technology and expertise sharingand exchange.

Comprehensive adaptation. International/ Regional policy framework. Public Awareness. Political will and co-operation.

Global consensus.

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Thank YouThank You

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Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security

Studies (BIPSS)

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Maj Gen Muniruzzaman the Security Dimensions of Climate Change COP15

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