10
REFERENCE CODE GDHCER055 | PUBLICATION DATE FEBRUARY 2014 MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
REFERENCE CODE GDHCER055 | PUBLICAT ION DATE FEBRUARY 2014
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
Major Depressive Disorder – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
Executive Summary
Major depressive disorder (MDD), also known as
clinical depression or major depression, is widely
recognized as one of the most common mental
disorders in the world (Dobson and Dozois, 2008).
MDD is a type of mood disorder characterized by
persistent feelings of sadness, anger, loss, or
frustration that can last from days to months and
alternates with episodes of wellness (MedlinePlus,
2013). Little is known about the etiology of MDD;
however, research suggests that chemical
changes in the brain may potentially increase the
risk of MDD (NHS, 2012).
The prevalence of MDD is high in both developed
and developing countries, with approximately 350
million people living with the condition worldwide
as of 2012. Globally, the total lifetime prevalence of
MDD according to the recent World Mental Health
(WMH) surveys varies from 6.6% in Japan to
21.0% in France, whereas the total 12-month
period prevalence of MDD varies from 2.2% in
Japan to 10.4% in Brazil (Bromet et al., 2011;
Lépine and Briley, 2011).
MDD is a highly debilitating condition that is
associated with substantial morbidity and an
enormous social and economic burden. The
condition affects the thoughts, feelings, behavior,
and physical health of an individual, leading to a
range of psychological, physical, and social
problems. According to the World Health
Organization (WHO), depression is one of the
major contributors to the global burden of disease
(WHO, 2012). In 2000, MDD was the third leading
cause of disability, accounting for 4.3% of
Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) worldwide,
and is predicted to become the leading cause of
disability by 2030 (Murray and Lopez, 1996; Ustün
et al., 2004; WHO, 2012). Although MDD is
treatable and manageable, it can lead to serious
consequences, including suicide, if left untreated
(MedlinePlus, 2013; NHS, 2012).
This report provides an overview of the risk factors
and the global and historical trends for MDD in the
eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany,
Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Australia). In addition,
the report includes a 10-year epidemiological
forecast (2013–2023) for the total prevalent cases
of MDD in these markets, segmented by age (ages
≥20 years) and sex. To construct the 10-year
epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent
cases of MDD in the 8MM, GlobalData
epidemiologists selected only country-specific
studies that provided the total prevalence of MDD
based on the American Psychiatric Association’s
(APA) Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental
Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) criteria, using the
Composite International Diagnostic Interview
(CIDI) version 3.0 as the diagnostic instrument.
The CIDI is a comprehensive and fully-
standardized diagnostic interview tool designed to
diagnose MDD according to the DSM-IV criteria
(Dobson and Dozois, 2008).
Major Depressive Disorder – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 3 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
Executive Summary
As shown in below mentioned figure GlobalData
epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent
cases of MDD in the 8MM will grow by 4.0% over
the next decade, from 31,798,832 total prevalent
cases in 2013 to 33,083,108 total prevalent cases
in 2023. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the
growth in the total prevalent cases of MDD in the
8MM to changing population demographics in the
respective markets, rather than to an actual
increase in the prevalence of MDD in these
markets.
8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MDD, Ages ≥20 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2013 and 2023
657,591
1,368,321
1,401,931
1,798,752
2,293,789
2,682,152
5,918,318
13,169,474
15,677,978
31,798,832
714,873
1,374,377
1,480,420
1,745,641
2,249,144
2,747,966
6,153,757
13,502,161
16,616,930
33,083,108
0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000
Australia
Italy
Spain
Germany
Japan
France
UK
5EU
US
8MM
Total Prevalent Cases of MDD (N)
Mar
kets 2023
2013
Source: GlobalData; Bromet et al., 2011; CDC, 2010; Kawakami et al., 2004; Kessler et al., 2005; King et al., 2008; Ohayon and Schatzberg, 2002; Slade et al., 2009 5EU = France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK; 8MM = US, 5EU, Japan, and Australia
Major Depressive Disorder – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 4 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Table of Contents
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 6
1.2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 6
2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 7
2.1 Catalyst ............................................................................................................................... 7
2.2 Related Reports .................................................................................................................. 7
2.3 Upcoming Reports .............................................................................................................. 8
3 Epidemiology .............................................................................................................................. 9
3.1 Disease Background ........................................................................................................... 9
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities ........................................................................................ 10
3.2.1 A Family History of MDD Increases the Risk for MDD by Almost 14 Times ................... 11
3.2.2 Substance Abuse and Lifetime Anxiety Disorders are Highly Prevalent in MDD Patients
..................................................................................................................................... 12
3.3 Global and Historical Trends ............................................................................................. 13
3.4 Forecast Methodology ....................................................................................................... 16
3.4.1 Sources Used................................................................................................................ 18
3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods ............................................................................. 22
3.4.3 Sources Not Used ......................................................................................................... 24
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for MDD (2013–2023) ............................................................... 26
3.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of MDD ...................................................................................... 26
3.5.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MDD ................................................................. 27
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of MDD.................................................................. 29
Major Depressive Disorder – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 5 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Table of Contents
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of MDD ................................................................. 31
3.6 Discussion ........................................................................................................................ 32
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight ................................................................................... 32
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis ............................................................................................. 33
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis ............................................................................................... 34
4 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 35
4.1 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 35
4.2 About the Authors ............................................................................................................. 39
4.2.1 Epidemiologists ............................................................................................................. 39
4.2.2 Reviewers ..................................................................................................................... 39
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Health Policy ........................................................ 40
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare ............................................................................................ 41
4.3 About GlobalData .............................................................................................................. 42
4.4 About EpiCast ................................................................................................................... 42
4.5 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 43
Major Depressive Disorder – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 6 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Table of Contents
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: DSM-IV Diagnostic Criteria for MDD ............................................................................................ 10
Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for MDD ..................................................................................... 11
Table 3: Prevalence of the Most Frequent Psychiatric Comorbidities in Individuals With and Without MDD 13
Table 4: 8MM, Total Prevalence (%) of MDD According to the DSM-IV Criteria ......................................... 15
Table 5: 8MM, Total Prevalence (%) of MDD According to the DSM-III Criteria.......................................... 15
Table 6: 8MM, Sources of the MDD Prevalence Data Used to Forecast the Total Prevalent Cases of MDD
................................................................................................................................................... 17
Table 7: 8MM, Sources Excluded from the Forecast for the Total Prevalent Cases of MDD ...................... 25
Table 8: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MDD, Ages ≥20 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2013–2023 ..................... 26
Table 9: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MDD, by Age, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2013 .............................. 28
Table 10: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MDD, by Sex, Ages ≥20 Years, N (Row %), 2013 ....................... 30
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MDD, Ages ≥20 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2013–2023 ..................... 27
Figure 2: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MDD, by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2013 ............................................ 29
Figure 3: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MDD, by Sex, Ages ≥20 Years, N, 2013 ..................................... 31
Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence (%) of MDD, by Sex, Ages ≥20 Years, 2013 .............. 32
Major Depressive Disorder – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 7 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
Introduction
2 Introduction
2.1 Catalyst
Major depressive disorder (MDD), also known as clinical depression or major depression, is widely
recognized as one of the most common mental disorders in the world (Dobson and Dozois, 2008).
The total lifetime prevalence of MDD according to the recent World Mental Health (WMH) surveys
varies from 6.6% in Japan to 21.0% in France (Bromet et al., 2011; Lépine and Briley, 2011).
Although MDD is treatable and manageable, it can lead to serious consequences, such as suicide,
if left untreated (MedlinePlus, 2013; NHS, 2012). In 2000, MDD was the third leading cause of
disability, accounting for 4.3% of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) worldwide, and is
predicted to become the leading cause of disability by 2030 (Murray and Lopez, 1996; Ustün et al.,
2004; WHO, 2012).
This report provides an overview of the risk factors and the global and historical trends for
MDD in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and
Australia). In addition, the report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast (2013–2023) for
the total prevalent cases of MDD in these markets, segmented by age (ages ≥20 years) and
sex.
GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of MDD in the 8MM will grow
by 4.0% over the next decade, from 31,798,832 total MDD prevalent cases in 2013 to
33,083,108 total MDD prevalent cases in 2023.
A major strength of GlobalData’s epidemiological analysis is the exclusive use of country-
specific studies that provided the total prevalence of MDD in the 8MM using the DSM-IV
criteria, which allows for a meaningful comparison of the total prevalent cases of MDD in these
markets.
Major Depressive Disorder – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 8 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
Introduction
2.3 Upcoming Reports
GlobalData (2014). PharmaPoint: Major Depressive Disorder — Global Market Forecast and
Market Analysis to 2023
Major Depressive Disorder – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 42 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Appendix
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
4.3 About GlobalData
GlobalData is a leading global provider of business intelligence in the healthcare industry.
GlobalData provides its clients with up-to-date information and analysis on the latest developments
in drug research, disease analysis, and clinical research and development. Our integrated business
intelligence solutions include a range of interactive online databases, analytical tools, reports, and
forecasts. Our analysis is supported by a 24/8 client support and analyst team.
GlobalData has offices in New York, San Francisco, Boston, London, India, Korea, Japan,
Singapore, and Australia.
4.4 About EpiCast
EpiCast is a series of premier epidemiology reports written and developed by Master’s-
and PhD-level epidemiologists.
EpiCast Reports are in-depth, high quality, transparent, and market-driven, providing expert
analysis of epidemiological trends and forecasting of patient populations for major markets.
Specifically, the reports identify disease trends over a 10-year forecast period in six to eight major
markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). Additional countries, such as
Canada, Brazil, China, and India, are covered in these reports if their markets are highly relevant.
Major Depressive Disorder – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023 43 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.
Appendix
MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER – EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023
4.5 Disclaimer
All Rights Reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any
form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior
permission of the publisher, GlobalData.
