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U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Weather Outlook Mike Tannura Owner, Meteorologist and Agricultural Economist T-storm Weather, LLC Advance Trading Chicago, Illinois April 12, 2013
U.S. Corn, Soybean, andWheat Weather Outlook
Mike TannuraOwner, Meteorologist and Agricultural Economist
T-storm Weather, LLC
Advance TradingChicago, IllinoisApril 12, 2013
Major Drought Lingers
Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center
U.S. Winter Wheat Production2006 - 2010
Precipitation (Percent of Normal)Weighted By U.S. Crop Production
180-Day Period Ending Yesterday
• 39% of HRW wheat in drought, compared to 2% of SRW wheat and 10% of corn
Soil Moisture: Extreme Drought Drought Normal Wet Extreme
WetnessPrecipitation
(Percent of Average): (0% - 50%) (50% - 75%) (75% - 125%) (125% - 200%) (200% +)
CORN 2% 8% 71% 19% 0%SOYBEANS 0% 6% 79% 15% 0%
HRW WHEAT 9% 30% 49% 10% 1%SRW WHEAT 0% 2% 87% 11% 0%
SPRING WHEAT 2% 7% 60% 28% 4%
Winter Wheat Rated Poor and Very PoorAs of Monday, April 8
• Includes more than 50% of wheat in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Texas
U.S. Corn Production2006 - 2010
Source: National Weather Service
• Much of the central / northern Plains and Corn Belt were wet over the long term
PrecipitationPercent of Normal, 180-Day Period Ending Yesterday
U.S. Corn Yield1960 - 2012
Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service
U.S. Corn Yield1960 - 2012
Data source: National Agricultural Statistics ServiceYields represent the departure from the linear trend over 1960-2012
U.S. Corn Yield and Lagged September-April Precipitation*
1960 - 2012
* Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-IowaData sources: National Agricultural Statistics Service, National Climatic Data CenterYields represent the departure from the linear trend over 1960-2012
SnowpackYesterday at 1 AM Central Time
• Snowpack is widespread from the Canada Prairies into the north-central U.S.
SnowpackOne Year Ago Yesterday at 1 AM Central Time
• Snowpack is widespread from the Canada Prairies into the north-central U.S.
Coldness and Jet StreamCannot Move With Snowpack
Ongoing / Upcoming Pattern Likely To Limit Corn Planting
Neutral Conditions Exist And Are Expected To Continue – El Niño or La Niña Conditions Do Not Exist
Neutral Conditions Exist And Are Expected To Continue – El Niño or La Niña Conditions Do Not Exist
Data source: Climate Prediction Center
Data source: Climate Prediction Center, National Agricultural Statistics Service
• Neutral conditions persisted 10 times over January-October since 1960• 1960, 1961, 1962, 1967, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1990, 1993, and 2004
Neutral Conditions
Data source: Climate Prediction Center, National Agricultural Statistics Service
• Neutral conditions persisted 10 times over January-October since 1960• 1960, 1961, 1962, 1967, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1990, 1993, and 2004
U.S. Corn Yield andNeutral Conditions
March Temperature AcrossIllinois-Indiana-Iowa
2004 - 2013
10 Coldest Marches AcrossIllinois-Indiana-Iowa
1895 - 2013
July Temperature AcrossIllinois-Indiana-Iowa After
The Coldest Marches1895 - 2013
July Precipitation AcrossIllinois-Indiana-Iowa After
The Coldest Marches1895 - 2013
Thank You!Questions?
Mike Tannura Owner, Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist Email: [email protected] Website: www.tstorm.net
Phone: (312) 638-0993 Toll Free Phone: (866) 475-7370
