Daniel Kammen
Professor of EnergyEnergy and Resources Group | Goldman School of Public Policy
Founding Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy LaboratoryUniversity of California, Berkeley
Reducing Inequality in a Sustainable World,Berkeley, California - March 5, 2015
Making Cities Sustainable for All
http://rael.berkeley.edu
IPCC AR5 (2014): Climate Projections and Associated Risks
2°C “Guardrail“
3Professor D. M. Kammen | rael.berkeley.edu/switch
Clean Energy Transition: Impacts Across Scales
Climate protection depends on a transition to clean energy by mid-Century … what pathways exist?
The California Rim Fire
Energy access is lacking for two billion people worldwide
… can clean energy accelerate access?
Energy access in Nairobi
Job creation, air quality, and health benefits of the transition
… can they also promote equity?
Municipal solar in San Fran.
Quantitative Assessments: Energy and Human Development
Literacy
Mortality(Children)
Poverty
Education
Mortality(Infants)
Sanitation
Correlation, not causation, but warrants deeper investigation
Energy Access, Economic Opportunityand Quality of Life
Alstone, Gerhenson, and Kammen, Nature Climate Change, in press
Developing Sustainable Energy Plans
Western North America
5/2012
Chile4/2014 East
African,Seeking funding & data
India, Seeking funding
China, 1/2015
Malaysian Borneo1/2013
Kosovo3/2013
& Southern Europe
(9/2015?)Nicaragua:3/2015
http://rael.berkeley.edu/switch
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Can we develop viable clean energy plans?
http://rael.berkeley.edu 9
The California Strategy to reduce emissionsThe California framework to reduce emissions
First: return to
1990 levels by
2020(-20% from peak)
Then:-80%
by 2050
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CA Action Plan to 2020 and 2050
http://rael.berkeley.edu
11Professor D. M. Kammen | rael.berkeley.edu/switch
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Compressed AirSodium Sulfur Battery
Sto
rage
Pumped Hydro
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Transmission AC
DC
Re
new
able
Ge
ne
rati
on
Co
nve
nti
on
al G
en
era
tio
n
SWITCH Modeling Framework to Explore Decarbonization Paths
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Western North American (WECC) Electricity Mix, 2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Reference
SunShot
Low-CostBaeries
SunShotandLow-CostBaeries
High-PriceNaturalGas
MethaneLeakage
NuclearandCCS
LimitedEfficiency
High-CostTransmission
LimitedHydro
Load-Shiing
Load-ShiingandFlexibleEVCharging
NoCSP6hStorage
SolarPV100GW
Limit
2020SystemElectricityProducon(TW
h)
Nuclear Biopower Coal CoalCCS Hydro Gas GasCCS Geothermal SolarPV CSP6hStorage Wind
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WECC Electricity Mix, 2050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Reference
SunShot
Low-CostBaeries
SunShotandLow-CostBaeries
High-PriceNaturalGas
MethaneLeakage
NuclearandCCS
LimitedEfficiency
High-CostTransmission
LimitedHydro
Load-Shiing
Load-ShiingandFlexibleEVCharging
NoCSP6hStorage
SolarPV100GW
Limit
2050SystemElectricityProducon(TW
h)
Nuclear Biopower Coal CoalCCS Hydro Gas GasCCS Geothermal SolarPV CSP6hStorage Wind
SWITCH-WECC80% decarbonized
SWITCH-WECC: 80% decarbonized
20,000
Biopower
Coal
Gas
Geothermal
Solar_PV
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15 GW
20,000
Biopower
Gas
Coal
Geothermal
Solar_PV
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15 GW
20,000
Biopower
Gas
Geothermal
Solar_PV
CSP_6h_TES
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15 GW
20,000
Biopower
Coal_CCS
Gas
Gas_CCS
Geothermal
Nuclear
Solar_PV
CSP_6h_TES
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15GW
20,000
Biopower
Coal_CCS
Gas
Gas_CCS
Geothermal
Nuclear
Solar_PV
CSP_6h_TES
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15GW
AverageGenera on(GW)
AverageTransmission(GW)
2020 2030
2040 2050
20,000
Biopower
Gas
Geothermal
Solar_PV
CSP_6h_TES
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15 GW
SWITCH-WECC: Planning Vital to Cost Management
80
100
120
140
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240
260
2020 2030 2040 2050
AverageCostofPower(20
14$/MWh)
AllScenariosRange
ReferenceScenario
• Storage almost exclusively moves solar to the night
• Geothermal only remaining substantial baseload
SWITCH-WECC Example Dispatch in 2050:
Flexibility and variable renewables dominate
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
193111821019311182101931118210171 918210171 91821018210171 918210171 918210171 9171 91821018210171 919311182101821019311WEC
CElectricityDispa
tchin2050(GW)
HourofDay(PST)
Nuclear Geothermal Biopower Coal
CoalCCS Gas(baseload) GasCCS Gas(intermediate)
Gas(peaker) Storage(discharging) Hydro(non-pumped) Solar
Wind Storage(charging) Demand
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
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US – China Climate Accord, October 2014
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SWITCH-China (2050)
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
GW
nuclear coal coal ccs gas
gas ccs solar storage-discharge hydro
wind storage-charge system load
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Can we make clean energy the first option for development?
Fig.3
10/23/2013 22
Pay-as you go solar + advanced batteries & lights
Pay-as you go solar + advanced batteries & lights
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Product Quality for for those Off-grid
Opportunities in Energy Access
$2+ Trillion US profits are “parked” overseas
Transformative opportunities forResearch, philanthropy andbusiness development
☑︎ Apple $138B Cisco $48B
☑︎ GE $110B ☑︎ Google $48B
☑︎Microsoft $93B ☑︎ HP $38B
☑︎ IBM $52B ☑︎ Pepsi $34B
☑︎ Johnson & Johnson $50B ☑︎ Oracle $33B
Fig.3SOM
10/23/2013 27
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Can we make clean energy the first option for urban and community
development?
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http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/mapsWe have seen access rate up to 100,000/day
What do they do first?They check their own community …
& compare to neighbors
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
New York San FranciscoBay Area
Chicago
Total
Household GHG emissions in four metro regions
Dallas
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
Household carbon footprints in East Coast Metropolitan Areas
41Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
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Cities Taking the 2014 Climate Challenge
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Reducing InequalityGreen jobs have been a powerful, but concentrated clean energy benefit
• Expand the data availability and the programs to grow jobs with clean energy (rael.berkeley.edu/greenjobs)
• Promote programs that finance clean energy for all income groups (e.g. Property Assessed Clean Energy for All)
