Making College More Affordable for Students

Sandy BaumKentucky Student Success Summit

April 2018

National Priorities

• 1) Strengthen the student educational experience

• 2) Increase completion and reduce inequities

• 3) Control costs and increase affordability

Increasing affordability

• Cost of education

• Sticker prices

• Net prices students pay

• Time to degree and completion

• Value

Enrollment: U.S. and Kentucky

Source: SHEEO, SHEF Data

1.06

1.431.36

1.00

0.88

1.23

1.13

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Enrollment Relative to 1992

 US  KY

Appropriations per FTE student (constant dollars)

Source: SHEEO, SHEF Data

$8,301$8,794

$7,642

$6,507

$8,293$7,750

$8,870

$6,623

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Educational Appropriations per FTE Student

 US  KY

Net tuition revenues per FTE student (constant dollars)

Source: SHEEO, SHEF Data

$3,361

$2,755

$3,479

$6,696

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net tution Revenue per FTE Student

 Net Tuition per FTE, Constant Dollars   US  Net Tuition per FTE, Constant Dollars   KY

Student share (Net tuition as a proportion of total educational revenues)

Source: SHEEO, SHEF Data

35%

30% 29%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net Tuition as a Share of Total Educational Revenues

 US  KY

FY2017 Wyoming California US KentuckyNew 

Hampshire Vermont15% 20% 46% 50% 79% 87%

Appropriations and net tuition revenue: Lowest, Kentucky/US, highest, 2016‐17

$16,391$15,821

$7,642

$6,623

$3,017 $2,959$2,536 $2,719

$6,572 $6,696

$16,488

$17,778

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Akaska Wyoming US Kentucky Vermont New Hampshire California Wyoming US Kentucky Vermont Delaware

 Educational Appropriations per FTE, Constant Dollars  Net Tuition per FTE, Constant Dollars

Source: SHEEO, SHEF Data

Costs of educating students: Public four‐year institutions, 2009‐10 to 2015‐16

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Instruction Academic Support Student Services Institutional Support Research Auxiliary Enterprises Other

2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16

InstructionAcademic Support

Student Services

Institutional Support Research

Auxiliary Enterprises Other

Total (exc. Hospitals)

7% 13% 16% 10% ‐6% 5% 13% 7%

Sticker pricesPublic Two-Year In-

DistrictPublic Four-Year In-

StatePublic Four-Year

Out-of-StatePrivate Nonprofit

Four-Year For-Profit

Tuition and Fees $3,570 $9,970 $25,620 $34,740 $16,000

Room and Board $8,400 $10,800 $10,800 $12,210 —Tuition and Fees and Room and Board $11,970 $20,770 $36,420 $46,950 —

Public Four-Year Private Nonprofit Four- Year

Doctoral Master’s Bachelor’s Doctoral Master’s Bachelor’s

TF $10,830 $8,670 $8,230 $42,920 $29,960 $33,450

RB $11,220 $10,020 $10,160 $13,800 $11,490 $11,370

TFRB $22,050 $18,690 $18,390 $56,720 $41,450 $44,820

Source: Ma et al, Trends in College Pricing 2017, The College Board.

12

Inflation‐adjusted published tuition and fees relative to 1987‐88, 1987‐88 to 2017‐18 (1987‐88 = 1.0)

Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2017, Figure 4B.

Public four‐year in‐state tuition and fees, 2017‐18

$5,220

$9,360

$9,790

$9,970

$10,300

$10,510

$16,070

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

WY FL UT MT NM ID NV NC AK WV NY MS ND NE SD OK AR GA IA MO WI KS LA IN WAMD CA TN TX ME US KY OR OH AL HI CO AZ MN RI DE CT SC MA VA MI IL NJ PA VT NH

2017‐18 In‐State Tuition and Fees

Source: Ma et al, Trends in College Pricing 2017, The College Board.

Public two‐year college tuition and fees by state, 2017‐18

$1,430

$3,570

$4,390$4,560

$5,090

$7,980

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

CA NM NC TX AZ KS MS NE WY NV FL MO US ME MT AR UT MI GA HI ID IL LA OK TN WV DC WA OH WI CO AL MD IN RI ND DE NJ OR IA KY VA SC PA NY MN MA SD NH VT

Source: Ma et al, Trends in College Pricing 2017, The College Board.

15

Average published and net prices in 2017 dollars, full‐time in‐state undergraduates, public four‐year institutions, 1997‐98 to 2017‐18

Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2017, Figure 9.

State grant aid per FTE student, 2015‐16(Percentage need‐based)

$29071%

$79076%

$1,03098%

$1,28045%

$1,64028%

$2,10017%

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

New

 Ham

pshire

Alab

ama

Mon

tana

Arizo

naUtah

Hawaii

Idah

oKa

nsas

Rhod

e Island

South Da

kota

Neb

raska

Michigan

Miss

issippi

Massachusetts

Ohio

Conn

ectic

utIowa

Maine

Orego

nMarylan

dMiss

ouri

North Dakota

Wisc

onsin

Colorado

Florida

Nevad

aDe

laware

Oklah

oma

Verm

ont

Illinois

Wyoming

Alaska

United States

Minne

sota

North Carolina

Texas

Penn

sylvan

iaArkansas

Indian

aVirginia

West V

irginia

California

New

 York

New

 Mexico

Kentucky

Washing

ton

New

 Jersey

Louisia

naTe

nnessee

Geo

rgia

South Ca

rolin

a

Source: Baum et al , Trends in Student Aid 2017, The College Board

Completion• Nearly 90% of high school graduates enroll in college at some point.

• After 6 years, 67% of four‐year and 38% of two‐year college students have completed a credential.

• About one‐fifth of Americans 25 and older have some college experience but no degree.

• New study from NBER: Comprehensive case management: dramatic impact on completion. Money alone:  no impact (Evans, Kearney, Perry,  Sullivan)

.

What interferes?

• Academic preparation• Half of all college students are required to take developmental (remedial) courses that re‐teach high school‐level reading, writing, and math

• Family and work• Financial strains• Enrollment intensity

Promising practices: CUNY ASAP

• Accelerated Study in Associate Programs• Addressing financial burdens, inadequate advising and support, weak academic preparation

• Focus on students with minimal developmental requirements• Meet full need, including transit passes, etc.• Highly structured program• Enroll full time• Intrusive advising• 3‐year graduation rate 40% vs. 18% for control group

Promising practices: Using data to understand, predict, and prevent problems

Florida State University increased 6‐year graduation rate from 63% for 1988 cohort to 79% 20 years later.• Institution‐wide discussion and structures• Detailed program mapping and investment in advising.

Promising Practices:Reforming developmental education

Placement• Long Beach Community College added high school grades to determination of placement into remedial classes.

• Dramatic increase in placement into college‐level classes, similar pass ratesCo‐requisite instruction• Community College of Baltimore County’s (CCBC’s) Accelerated Learning Program:  large increases in college‐level course completion.

• Several states, including Tennessee and Virginia, have expanded the use of co‐requisite models and/or redesigned, shorter remedial course sequences.

Promising practices: Easing transfer

• University of Central Florida: Guarantees admission to graduates of Valencia College and 3 other community colleges; provides information; advisors upper level classes on Valencia campus.

• Oregon: Students who earn Associate of Arts Oregon Transfer degree meet lower division gen ed requirements of BA programs of any institution in Oregon University System. Students transfer with junior status.

• New Jersey: agreements between 2‐year and 4‐year institutions to allow seamless transfer of academic credits from completed AA or AS to BA program. Students who enter with associate degree granted junior status.

Recommendations

• Increase state funding and target it effectively• Support cost‐saving innovations that maintain or improve quality• Provide strong need‐based state grant aid• Make timely completion a top priority• Collect and use data to support completion efforts• Create personal connections for students• Create guided pathways• Facilitate transfer of credits• Improve pre‐college education

Focus on value

• Affordability depends on value.

• College is an investment in the future.

• A low value education at a low price is not affordable.

• Moderate borrowing for an education that pays off well is affordable.