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MA.lecture08. the Rise of Asia

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  • 8/3/2019 MA.lecture08. the Rise of Asia

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    RMIT University

    COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA

    Copyright Regulations 1969

    WARNING

    This material has been reproduced and communicated to you by or on behalf ofRoyal Melbourne Institute of Technology, (RMIT University) pursuant to Part VB

    of the Copyright Act1968 (the Act).

    The material in this communication may be subject to copyright under the Act.Any further reproduction or communication of this material by you may be the

    subject of copyright protection under the Act.

    Do not remove this notice.

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    Modern Asia

    The Rise of Asia

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    The future of American powerJoseph Nye, 2010

    What is power? What are the main dimensions of power? Is power goodor bad? Why?

    In the past of human history, what were the powerful countries?

    Which countries in the world are considered superpower? Which areconsidered potential superpowers?

    According to Lee Kwan Yew, what is the one difference that decides thesoft-power between China and America?

    Will China be a contender to American power in the near future? Why?

    What are the suggestions of the author to America in order to avoid apost-American world?

    RMIT Universityyyyy School/Department/Area 3

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    I. The case of ChinaThe fastest-growing economy in the past 30 yrs or so; is undergoing what

    has been described as a second industrial revolution

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    What do we know about China?

    ???

    ???

    ??????

    RMIT Universityyyyy School/Department/Area 5

    http://media.thethaovanhoa.vn/2010/06/29/07/01/Chinese-soldiers.jpg&imgrefurl=http://thethaovanhoa.vn/131N20100629070215104T0/trung-quoc-cam-binh-si-hen-ho-qua-mang.htm&h=300&w=416&sz=31&tbnid=hWWb1Mwgg2hQ-M:&tbnh=90&tbnw=125&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dchinese%2Bsoldiers%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=chinese+soldiers&docid=

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    Three periods of PRC (since 1949):

    Mao China (1949-76): Planned economy (socialism); politicaldictatorship (one-man dictates all)

    -- Political correctness over economic development: utopianism-- Populism / mass mobilisation-- Close-door foreign policy

    -- Anti-capitalism / planned economy

    Deng China (1978-97): socialist-market economy (capitalism withChinese characteristics); pragmatic-authoritarianism

    -- pragmatism (the cat theory) and economic determinism

    -- Respect knowledge, respect talent; technocracy-- Reform and opening policy-- Gradualism vs. revolution-- Economic liberalisation and one-party political system

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    Post-Deng China (since 1997): following the Deng Xiaoping theory)

    Further capitalisation / globalisation (WTO: 2001; partial privatisation)

    Efforts to fight against corruption, environmental damages, and rich- poorgap: (harmonious society)

    New-Marxism, Neo-Confucianism: responsible leaders and government

    (responsible authoritarianism); educated and loyal citizens; gracious society

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    III. The rise of Chinese economy since the 1980s:

    The fastest growing economy: GDP (gross domestic product) growthsince the 1980s: about 10%

    The 2nd/3rd largest economy: may overtake US by mid-21st C.

    Made in China: the world factory

    Overtaking US as the worlds top FDI destination in 2002: US$52.7 B

    (globally, shares 12%)

    Improving living standard / an emerging consumer society

    1.95 trillion foreign currency reserve (richest G) (IMF: 08)

    Rapid urbanisation

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    Chinas urbanisation: an example

    John Garnaut (The Age, 6/10/07) describes the ongoing 2nd

    industrial revolution in China this way (edited):

    This year China will need enough ore to make enough steel to

    build high-rise apartments for:

    19 million new urban migrates

    make 8.5 million cars

    complete 17 major city airports, roll out tens of thousands of

    kilometres of railways, tunnels, bridges and highways

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    IV. Reasons?

    Historical dynamics: Post-colonial nationalism; the failure of Maosutopian socialism

    Deng: Architect of Chinese modernisation

    Lessons from Russia: radical change and wholesale Westernisation

    Social stability

    WTO accession (2001)

    More?

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    V. A potential superpower?

    Military power Independent military industrial system

    Nuclear capability: can attack global targets

    Military expenditures

    Science and technology Satellite & carrier rocket tech

    Sent its first man in space in 2003; plan to launch its first mission to the

    moon by 2010.

    HE & scientific research: about 16m. students in 1,500 unis and research

    centres

    International influence:

    Permanent member of UN Security Council with veto power

    Growing international influence (soft power)

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    The impact of the rising Chinese power

    Cultural challenge: first non-Western

    superpower

    Economic challenge

    Military challenge (Coming war with

    USA)?

    Impact on power structure in Asia.

    China-USA-Japan-India

    Territory disputes between China and its

    neighbours

    A superpower without democracy: a

    threat?

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    VI. Challenges

    Overpopulation and the controversial one child policy

    This rule has caused a disdain for female infants; abortion,neglect, abandonment, and even infanticide have beenknown to occur to female infants. The result of suchDraconian family planning has resulted in the disparate

    ratio of 114 males for every 100 females among babiesfrom birth through children four years of age. Normally, 105males are naturally born for every 100 females.

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    Environmental damages

    https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/view?q=sanghai+pollution&uname=tronghue76&psc=G&filter=1&hl=vi#5624379803511428722

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    RAMPANT OFFICIAL CORRUPTION

    China's anti-corruption watchdog has said that 106,000 officials were found

    guilty of corruption in 2009, an increase of 2.5% on the year before.

    The number of government officials caught embezzling more than onemillion yuan ($146,000; 91,000) jumped by 19% over the year.

    Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8448059.stm

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    Rich-poor gap; East-West gap; Urban-rural gap; Mass unemployment

    Poor Chinese children are forced to perform on the streets for moneyPhoto: GETTY

    Gap between China's rich and poor 'threatening economy

    China's growing divide between rich and poor is threatening its economic as well as itssocial health, a United Nations report says.

    Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/3470664/Gap-between-Chinas-rich-and-poor-threatening-economy-.html

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    http://www.tibettravel.info/images/map/tibet-location-map-b.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.tibettravel.info/tibet-map/&h=440&w=500&sz=49&tbnid=xx_56RONsXGdCM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=102&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dmap%2Bof%2Btibet%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=map+of+tibet&docid=

    Taiwan/Tibet ?


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