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Modern Asia

The Rise of Asia

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The future of American powerJoseph Nye, 2010

What is power? What are the main dimensions of power? Is power goodor bad? Why?

In the past of human history, what were the powerful countries?

Which countries in the world are considered superpower? Which areconsidered potential superpowers?

According to Lee Kwan Yew, what is the one difference that decides thesoft-power between China and America?

Will China be a contender to American power in the near future? Why?

What are the suggestions of the author to America in order to avoid apost-American world?

RMIT Universityyyyy School/Department/Area 3

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I. The case of ChinaThe fastest-growing economy in the past 30 yrs or so; is undergoing what

has been described as a second industrial revolution

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What do we know about China?

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RMIT Universityyyyy School/Department/Area 5

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Three periods of PRC (since 1949):

Mao China (1949-76): Planned economy (socialism); politicaldictatorship (one-man dictates all)

-- Political correctness over economic development: utopianism-- Populism / mass mobilisation-- Close-door foreign policy

-- Anti-capitalism / planned economy

Deng China (1978-97): socialist-market economy (capitalism withChinese characteristics); pragmatic-authoritarianism

-- pragmatism (the cat theory) and economic determinism

-- Respect knowledge, respect talent; technocracy-- Reform and opening policy-- Gradualism vs. revolution-- Economic liberalisation and one-party political system

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Post-Deng China (since 1997): following the Deng Xiaoping theory)

Further capitalisation / globalisation (WTO: 2001; partial privatisation)

Efforts to fight against corruption, environmental damages, and rich- poorgap: (harmonious society)

New-Marxism, Neo-Confucianism: responsible leaders and government

(responsible authoritarianism); educated and loyal citizens; gracious society

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III. The rise of Chinese economy since the 1980s:

The fastest growing economy: GDP (gross domestic product) growthsince the 1980s: about 10%

The 2nd/3rd largest economy: may overtake US by mid-21st C.

Made in China: the world factory

Overtaking US as the worlds top FDI destination in 2002: US$52.7 B

(globally, shares 12%)

Improving living standard / an emerging consumer society

1.95 trillion foreign currency reserve (richest G) (IMF: 08)

Rapid urbanisation

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Chinas urbanisation: an example

John Garnaut (The Age, 6/10/07) describes the ongoing 2nd

industrial revolution in China this way (edited):

This year China will need enough ore to make enough steel to

build high-rise apartments for:

19 million new urban migrates

make 8.5 million cars

complete 17 major city airports, roll out tens of thousands of

kilometres of railways, tunnels, bridges and highways

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IV. Reasons?

Historical dynamics: Post-colonial nationalism; the failure of Maosutopian socialism

Deng: Architect of Chinese modernisation

Lessons from Russia: radical change and wholesale Westernisation

Social stability

WTO accession (2001)

More?

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V. A potential superpower?

Military power Independent military industrial system

Nuclear capability: can attack global targets

Military expenditures

Science and technology Satellite & carrier rocket tech

Sent its first man in space in 2003; plan to launch its first mission to the

moon by 2010.

HE & scientific research: about 16m. students in 1,500 unis and research

centres

International influence:

Permanent member of UN Security Council with veto power

Growing international influence (soft power)

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The impact of the rising Chinese power

Cultural challenge: first non-Western

superpower

Economic challenge

Military challenge (Coming war with

USA)?

Impact on power structure in Asia.

China-USA-Japan-India

Territory disputes between China and its

neighbours

A superpower without democracy: a

threat?

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VI. Challenges

Overpopulation and the controversial one child policy

This rule has caused a disdain for female infants; abortion,neglect, abandonment, and even infanticide have beenknown to occur to female infants. The result of suchDraconian family planning has resulted in the disparate

ratio of 114 males for every 100 females among babiesfrom birth through children four years of age. Normally, 105males are naturally born for every 100 females.

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Environmental damages

https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/view?q=sanghai+pollution&uname=tronghue76&psc=G&filter=1&hl=vi#5624379803511428722

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RAMPANT OFFICIAL CORRUPTION

China's anti-corruption watchdog has said that 106,000 officials were found

guilty of corruption in 2009, an increase of 2.5% on the year before.

The number of government officials caught embezzling more than onemillion yuan ($146,000; 91,000) jumped by 19% over the year.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8448059.stm

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Rich-poor gap; East-West gap; Urban-rural gap; Mass unemployment

Poor Chinese children are forced to perform on the streets for moneyPhoto: GETTY

Gap between China's rich and poor 'threatening economy

China's growing divide between rich and poor is threatening its economic as well as itssocial health, a United Nations report says.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/3470664/Gap-between-Chinas-rich-and-poor-threatening-economy-.html

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Taiwan/Tibet ?