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MANAGING CLIMATE-FRAGILITY RISKS

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MANAGING CLIMATE-FRAGILITY RISKS FROM JAPANESE ASSISTANCE PERSPECTIVE Mikio Ishiwatari, PhD Senior Advisor Japan International Cooperation Agency Addressing Climate Fragility Risks in Asia and Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities for Achieving Sustainable Development ISAP 2016, July 12, 2016 Key message To manage climate-fragility risks development assistance in climate change and peace building should be integrated from a long-term perspective
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MANAGING CLIMATE-FRAGILITY RISKSFROM JAPANESE ASSISTANCE PERSPECTIVE

Mikio Ishiwatari, PhD

Senior Advisor

Japan International Cooperation AgencyAddressing Climate Fragility Risks in Asia and Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities for Achieving Sustainable Development

ISAP 2016, July 12, 2016

Key message

To manage climate-fragility risks

development assistance

in climate change and peace building

should be integrated

from a long-term perspective

Projects involved in Sri Lanka• North Sri Lanka: Peace Building 平和構築

• Climate Change Adaptation in major river basins

気候変動適応策

124.33

145.01

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Max 1 day

10年

確率

年最

大日

雨量

(mm

/日)_

観測値

(1979-1998)選定したGCMの

予測値(2046-2065)

年最大日雨量

Max

Min

Daily precipitation: once‐in‐10 yrs

Ave. ensemble

• Tsunami recovery 津波復興

Implemented these projects separately

Peace building Climate change

124.33

145.01

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Max 1 day

10年確

率年

最大

日雨

量 (m

m/日

)_

観測値

(1979-1998)選定したGCMの

予測値(2046-2065)

年最大日雨量

Disaster recovery

Contents

1. Climate change and security1. Security issues

2. Water resources

2. What approach should we take?1. JICA’s approaches in two sectors are not interlinked

climate change & peace building

2. to manage climate-fragility risk

3. Conclusion

1.CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY1. Climate change is security issue

2. Water Security

Strengthen Our National Defense .Strengthen Our National Defense .

Reinforce Homeland SecurityReinforce Homeland Security

Combat Persistent Threat of TerrorismCombat Persistent Threat of Terrorism

Confront Climate ChangeConfront Climate Change

Build Capacity to Prevent Conflict .Build Capacity to Prevent Conflict .

Prevent Spread and Use of Weapons of Mass DestructionPrevent Spread and Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction

US National Security Strategy

2015

White House

US National Security Strategy

2015

White House Assure Access to Shared Spaces .Assure Access to Shared Spaces .

Increase Global Health Security.Increase Global Health Security.

Climate change is one of top strategic risks in US 

PCC AR5 WGII TS Fig TS.11

紛争

移住移動

文化的変化

Human security will be progressively undermined as the climate changes: IPCC AR5 Report

People living in places affected by violent conflict are particularly vulnerable to climate change: IPCC AR5 Report

IPCC AR5 WGII Chp12 Fig 12‐2

2. Water SecurityRiver flow volume is changing 河川流量の変化

mean annual stream flow

IPCC AR5 WGII Chp3 Fig 3‐4

Magome J. et al. (2015) River discharge simulation of a distributed hydrologicalmodel on global scale for the hazard quantification, 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation,

difference (%)of 50-year flood peak discharges between future and present climates for MRI-AGCM3.2s

Flood is increasing in most Asian countries洪水流量の増加

Flooding in Koshi River: India-Nepal Boarder in 2008

3.3 million people affected in Bihar alone

2. WHAT APPROACH SHOULD WE TAKE?1. JICA’s approaches in two sectors are not interlinked.

1. climate change2. peace building

2. To manage climate-fragility risk

1. JICA approach in Climate Change(1) Flood management in Metro Manila

2040 Pasig-Marikina river

1/30 flood

INCREASE

• Volume 8%

3,100⇒3,350m3

• Inundated Area 45%

10.4⇒15㎞2

• Depth 50㎝

2.4⇒2.9m

1/30 floodUnder climate change

alternatives for flood risk management

JICA approach in Climate Change (2) Low Carbon and Resilient Development Cooperation

JICA approach: Low Carbon and Resilient Development Cooperationrecognizes CC is an imminent global threat endangering human security

JICA approach: Low Carbon and Resilient Development CooperationBut, priority activities are not directly linked to security issues.

2. JICA’s approach: Thematic Guidelines on Peacebuildingpriority areas not cover climate related activities

Governance: election, media judicial system, democratic, financial institution, Governance: election, media judicial system, democratic, financial institution,

Economic recovery: employmentEconomic recovery: employment

Social capital: infrastructure, health, education, food securitySocial capital: infrastructure, health, education, food security

Security: security, demobilization and reintegration, small arms, landmine and UXOSecurity: security, demobilization and reintegration, small arms, landmine and UXO

PeacebuildingPeacebuilding

3. What approach should we take?Long-term perspective

• Assessment linking fragility and climate projection assessment

• Integrating multiple sector activities

• Capacity development to respond to changing climate and society.

Assessment and activities

• Prediction, simulation: GCM, downscaling, flooding, drought

• Risk assessment

• Structural measures

• Early warning

Scientific and Engineering Approach

Scientific and Engineering Approach

Socio-economic Approach

Socio-economic Approach

• PNA (Peace Building Needs & Impact Assessment)

Politics, Socioeconomic, Security, Governance, Natural resources, Inequality

• Community-based

• Livelihood

Kenya a. nationwide master plan of water resource management

Water stress increase in 2030

b. Enhancing Community Resilience against Drought in Northern Kenya

to manage climate-fragility risks

Scientific and EngineeringAssessment

Scientific and EngineeringAssessment

Socio-economic activities

Socio-economic activities

C. Capacity DevelopmentSeverer drought and floods

mitigating tensions

over shared water

mitigating tensions

over shared water

destabilizing effects on river basin

aggravate political tensions

Water allocation &institutional

mechanisms

• Japanese experience 水管理

Water allocation

Drought conciliation

Water allocation

Drought conciliation

Water Right水利権

Water Right水利権

Drought Conciliation渇水調整

Drought Conciliation渇水調整Customary

right 1/3

慣行水利権

Customary right 1/3

慣行水利権

Permission right

Developed by dam, weir…

2/3許可水利権

Permission right

Developed by dam, weir…

2/3許可水利権

River basin committee: Water users

decide restriction rules on

consensus basis

River basin committee: Water users

decide restriction rules on

consensus basis

mutual-concession

spirit 互譲の精神

mutual-concession

spirit 互譲の精神

River basin committee: 渇水調整会議

Yoshino River

Tokushima Old rights

Tokushima New rights

Kagawa

CONCLUSION

To manage climate-fragility risks

development assistance

in climate change and peace building

should be integrated

from a long-term perspective.

Thank you Mikio Ishiwatari PhD,[email protected]


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