Managing Growthand Cushioning Falls
AGENDA
• Context• The Hypothesis• The Analysis• Managing Growth• Cushioning Falls
PANELISTS:Todd Messenger Rick Brady, Esq.Kendig Keast Collaborative City of Greeley
MODERATOR:Andy Firestine
CONTEXT
• In agriculture, “monoculture” is “the use of land for growing only one type of crop.”– In the short and medium run, monocultures allow for large harvests with less labor and standardized inputs.
– However, they come with more risk, as they tend to hasten the spread of disease (and its impact).
– Monocultures also deplete soil and depend more heavily on “outside” inputs.
CONTEXT
• Research on rice farms in China revealed that genetic diversity of rice strains in rice farms increased disease resistance overall, even among the more susceptible strains
THINKING OUT LOUD . . .
• Biological systems often provide models that help explain economic systems
• Does it follow that large monocultures of housing entail greater risk, particularly when they attract a relatively narrow market segment (like a human “monoculture”)?
• It can’t be that simple (and it isn’t).
WELD COUNTY GEOGRAPHY
• 4,022 square miles of land area.• Greeley is the county seat and the largest city in Weld County.
• 2010 Census identifies 12 towns and cities within Weld County that have undergone a population change of at least 50 percent from the 2000 Census.– Eaton, Erie, Evans, Firestone, Frederick, Hudson, Johnstown, Lochbuie, Mead, Milliken, Severance, and Windsor.
WELD COUNTY STATS
• 2009 American Community Survey (ACS) one‐year estimates:– About 94,500 housing units, 30,000 constructed since 2000.
– About 80% of all owner‐occupied housing units have a mortgage and 1/3 of these have owner costs exceeding 30% of household income.
– Median HH income is about $54,700.– About 36% of all 16+ yr. old workers commute 30 min. or more; 15% commute 45 min. or more.
H.U.D.’S 2004 ANALYSIS (GREELEY)
“The affordability of housing and the presence of major transportation corridors to the adjacent metropolitan areas have been the leading factors for the significant population and household growth of the HMA. Greeley has become an affordable bedroom community for some workers in the Denver and Boulder‐Longmont metropolitan areas to the south. Homes are quite affordable when compared to the adjacent metropolitan areas. “U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (2004). Analysis of the Greeley, Colorado Housing Market as of April 1, 2004. Retrieved February 16, 2011 from http://www.huduser.org/publications/pdf/greeleycocomp.pdf.
H.U.D.’S 2004 ANALYSIS (GREELEY)
“The substantial increases in the civilian labor force and total resident employment in the HMA are due to the growing number of workers commuting to jobs in adjacent metropolitan areas. “
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (2004). Analysis of the Greeley, Colorado Housing Market as of April 1, 2004. Retrieved February 16, 2011 from http://www.huduser.org/publications/pdf/greeleycocomp.pdf.
WELD COUNTY
• Between January 2008 and June 2010, a Notice of Election and Demand (NED) was filed on more than 7,500 residential properties in Weld County.
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Little boxes on the hillside,Little boxes made of ticky tacky,Little boxes on the hillside,Little boxes all the same.There's a green one and a pink one And a blue one and a yellow one,And they're all made out of ticky tackyAnd they all look just the same.
Malvina Reynolds (1962). Little Boxes. Schroder Music Company.
CENSUS GEOGRAPHY
Proximity. American Community Survey ACS 2005‐2009 Block Group Demographics. Retrieved February 14, 2011 from http://proximityone.com/acs0509bg.htm.
U.S. Census Bureau. American FactFinder Help. Retrieved February 14, 2011 from http://factfinder.census.gov/home/en/epss/census_geography.html.
AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY
• The American Community Survey is not the 2010 Census, but it has socioeconomic and housing data that won’t be in the 2010 Census.
• The American Community Survey data are period estimates that are intended to represent the characteristics of an area over a specified period of time.
• Produced in 1‐, 3‐, and 5‐ year estimates.
ACS DATA RELEASES1‐year estimates 3‐year estimates 5‐year estimates
12 months of collected data 36 months of collected data 60 months of collected data
Data for areas with populations of 65,000+
Data for areas with populations of 20,000+ Data for all areas
Smallest sample size Larger sample size than 1‐year Largest sample size
Less reliable than 3‐year or 5‐year
More reliable than 1‐year; less reliable than 5‐year Most reliable
Most current data Less current than 1‐year estimates; more current than 5‐year
Least current
Best used when Best used when Best used when
Currency is more important than precisionAnalyzing large populations
More precise than 1‐year, more current than 5‐yearAnalyzing smaller populationsExamining smaller geographies because 1‐year estimates are not available
Precision is more important than currency Analyzing very small populationsExamining tracts and other smaller geographies because 1‐year estimates are not available
ACS GEOGRAPHY• Census tracts;• Block groups;• Census Designated Places (CDPs);• Census County Divisions (CCDs);• Tribal Designated Statistical Areas (TDSAs);• State Designated Tribal Statistical Areas (SDTSAs);• Oklahoma Tribal Statistical Areas (OTSAs) ;• Alaska Native Village Statistical Areas (ANVSAs);• Urban Areas; and• Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMS).
METHODOLOGY
• It is reasonable to assume that there are more NED filings and more foreclosure activity in geographies with more housing units.
• Model controlled for this in order to sort out the underlying causes of the crisis – data was measured as a percentage of total housing units, households, or population.
• ACS 2005‐2009 five‐year estimates were used, except for the race variable where Census 2000 data was used.
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
• Percent of housing units in geographic area where an NED filing was recorded.
• Data was obtained from the Weld County Public Trustee’s website.– Date range of January 1, 2008 – January 24, 2011 was used.
– Geo‐coded to Census block groups.– Linked to Assessor’s data to remove non‐residential properties.
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES• YR_BLT
– Percent of housing units built since 2000.• MF
– Percent of housing units with two or more units in structure.• OWN_COSTS
– Percent of housing units with a mortgage with selected monthly owner costs exceeding 30 percent of household income.
• HHI_60 – Percent of households with a household income of less than $60,000 (2009
inflation adjusted dollars).• RACE
– Percent of population that is a minority; not white alone or in combination with one other race (from Census 2000).
• TRAVEL– Percent of workers 16 years of age and older with a commute of more than 45
minutes.
SPECIFICATION
• Linear regression model was selected.
• A linear regression model is linear in the coefficients.
iiiii ...22110
REGRESSION RESULTSResiduals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
‐0.086084 ‐0.019795 ‐0.00049 0.019726 0.14536
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.033389 0.012798 2.609 0.01039*
YR_BLT 0.069504 0.015495 4.486 1.85E‐05***
MF ‐0.081309 0.017172 ‐4.735 6.82E‐06***
OWN_COSTS 0.014527 0.015719 0.924 0.35751
HHI_60 0.039033 0.021415 1.823 0.07116 .
RACE 0.093564 0.034341 2.725 0.00753**
TRAVEL 0.006202 0.037613 0.165 0.86935
Signif. codes: ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1
Residual standard error: 0.03143 on 106 degrees of freedom
Multiple R‐squared: 0.4001, Adjusted R‐squared: 0.3662
F‐statistic: 11.78 on 6 and 106 DF, p‐value: 4.345e‐10
INTERPRETATION
• Model suggests that there is a significant relationship between newer housing and the number of NED filings.
• Equally, the model suggests that there is a relationship between the percentage of multi‐family units and the number of NED filings. – Block groups with greater percentages of multi‐family had fewer NED filings.
AREAS FOR FURTHER WORK
• Limitations of ACS five‐year estimates.• Data obtained from Weld County Public Trustee could be expanded to include more NED filings.
• Studies have suggested that vacancy rates are related to the extent of neighborhood impacts of foreclosures, particularly housing prices.
• What are the impacts of non‐occupant homes? • Principal component analysis.
MANAGING GROWTH
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.~ Mike Tyson The only source of knowledge is experience. ~ Albert Einstein
MANAGING GROWTH
• “Growth management” traditionally comes in several “flavors,” which may also be mixed:– Ensuring adequate public facilities (“concurrency”)– Controlling the rate of growth (“ROGO”)– Establishing growth boundaries (“UGB”)
• Most often, these deal with infrastructure (who pays for it and how efficiently it will be used) or fragile natural resources
MANAGING GROWTH
• A lesson from the crash is that planning and managing growth could (should) also be used to promote development of:– A more diverse and resilient community fabric; and– Local economic opportunity / activity (particularly in high‐growth “bedroom communities”)
DIVERSTY
• Ages / lifestages; incomes; and perspectives / preferences impact housing choice.
• Rapid production of a narrow range of housing product may create a narrow demographic. – There is strength in diversity of price, format, and character of housing.
• Planning should address whether new growth will tend to increase or decrease diversity.
• Zoning should allow for / encourage diversity.
OPPORTUNITY / FOUNDATIONS
• Identify the “reasons for being” for the place. – Why was it founded?– Has that purpose changed over time? How?
• Identify the drivers of growth.• Do they relate to the current “reasons for being?”
• Monitor whether the pace of growth is related to area employment growth.– Are there meaningful local opportunities for the workforce that lives in the new households?
MARKETS
• Who are the residents and what are their preferences? Long term expectations?
• Who moves in and out, and why? – What are their preferences?– Is life‐cycle housing available?
• Who drives in and out, and why?• What is the relationship between local wages, local rent, and local mortgage payments?
RMP OPPORTUNITY GAP
2010 OPPORTUNITY / SURPLUS IN RADIUS . . .
LOCATION 3 MILES 5 MILES 12 MILES
GREELEY: 28TH ST. @ 25TH AVE.
$16.4 MILLION “OPPORTUNITY”
$137.5 MILLION “OPPORTUNITY”
$437.7 MILLION “OPPORTUNITY”
GREEN VALLEY RANCH: TOWER RD. @ GREEN VALLEY RANCH BLVD.
$91.5 MILLION “OPPORTUNITY”
$17.2 MILLION SURPLUS (~1.5% OF MARKET)
$532.2 MILLION SURPLUS
LOVELAND: E.EISENHOWER BLVD. @ BOYD LAKE AVE.
$447.3 MILLION SURPLUS
$203.3 MILLION SURPLUS
$61.4 MILLION “OPPORTUNITY”
STAPLETON: E. 35TH AVE. @ CENTRAL PARK BLVD.
$610.2 MILLION SURPLUS
$1.1 BILLION SURPLUS
$3.2 BILLION SURPLUS
“OPPORTUNITY” = $ IS CURRENTLY LOST TO OTHER PLACES“SURPLUS” = $ FROM ELSEWHERE IS BEING SPENT IN AREA
DATA PROVIDED COURTESY OF NIELSEN‐CLARITAS http://www.sitereports.com
GREELEY STUDY AREA
5 MILE RADIUSFROM 28TH STREETAND 35TH AVENUE
TOP 3 SEGMENTS W/ MOREAREA JOBS THAN HOUSEHOLDS(EXCLUDING RETIREE SEGMENTS)
TOP 3 SEGMENTS W/ MOREAREA HOUSEHOLDS THAN JOBS
(EXCLUDING RETIREE SEGMENTS)
DATA PROVIDED COURTESY OF NIELSEN‐CLARITAS http://www.sitereports.com
GREELEY PRIZM(2010 5‐MILE RADIUS)
PRIZM SEGMENT HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYEES DIFFERENCE
FAMILY THRIFTS 3,230 (7.41%) | #2 4,580 (9.11%) | #1 +1,350 jobs
CITY STARTUPS 4,333 (9.94%) | #1 4,458 (8.87%) | #2 +125 jobs
UP‐AND‐COMERS 846 (1.94%) 2,651 (5.27%) | #3 +1,805 jobs
BOOMTOWN SINGLES 975 (2.24%) 2,645 (5.26%) | #4 +1,670 jobs
WHITE PICKET FENCES 1,808 (4.15%) 2,626 (5.22%) | #5 +818 jobs
KIDS AND CUL‐DE‐SACS 2,909 (6.67%) | #3 2,602 (5.17%) ‐307 jobs
BLUE‐CHIP BLUES 2,221 (5.10%) 750 (1.49%) ‐1,471 jobs
SUBURBAN PIONEERS 2,327 (5.34%) | #4 2,043 (4.06%) ‐284 jobs
MOBILITY BLUES 2,235 (5.13%) | #5 2,219 (4.41%) ‐16 jobs
HOME SWEET HOME 1,908 (3,1%) 33 (0.1%) ‐1,875 jobs
DATA PROVIDED COURTESY OF NIELSEN‐CLARITAS http://www.sitereports.com
MOSTLYRENTERS
GREEN VALLEY RANCH PRIZM(2010 5‐MILE RADIUS)
DATA PROVIDED COURTESY OF NIELSEN‐CLARITAS http://www.sitereports.com
PRIZM SEGMENT HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYEES DIFFERENCE
UPWARD BOUND 1,583 (4.8%) 5,664 (10.2%) | #1 +4,081
WHITE PICKET FENCES 3,164 (9.6%) | #2 3,835 (6.9%) | #2 +671
MULTI‐CULTI MOSAIC 2,543 (7.7%) | #4 3,119 (5.6%) | #3 +576
URBAN ACHIEVERS 36 (0.1%) 2,328 (4.2%) | #4 +2,292
LOW‐RISE LIVING 1,980 (6.0%) | #5 2,287 (4.1%) | #5 +307
BRITE LITES, LI’L CITY 560 (1.7%) 2,205 (4.0%) +1,645
BLUE‐CHIP BLUES 3,372 (10.2%) | #1 2,176 (3.9%) ‐1,196
KIDS & CUL‐DE‐SACS 3,129 (9.5%) | #2 1,656 (3.0%) ‐1,473
SUBURBAN SPRAWL 1,495 (4.5%) 872 (1.6%) ‐623
HOME SWEET HOME 1,770 (5.4%) 335 (0.6%) ‐1,435
MOSTLYRENTERS
LOVELAND PRIZM(2010 5‐MILE RADIUS)
DATA PROVIDED COURTESY OF NIELSEN‐CLARITAS http://www.sitereports.com
PRIZM SEGMENT HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYEES DIFFERENCE
GOD’S COUNTRY 538 (2.1%) 2,812 (8.9%) | #1 +2,274
MIDDLEBURG MGRS. 2,314 (8.8%) | #1 2,724 (8.6%) | #2 +410
GREENBELT SPORTS 464 (1.8%) 1,918 (6.1%) | #3 +1,454
WHITE PICKET FENCES 1,622 (6.2%) | #2 1,793 (5.7%) | #4 +171
KIDS & CUL‐DE‐SACS 518 (2.0%) 1,533 (4.9%) | #5 +1,015
FAMILY THRIFTS 1,427 (5.4%) | #3 663 (2.1%) ‐764
BOOMTOWN SINGLES 1,343 (5.1%) | #4 1,519 (4.8%) +176
SUBURBAN PIONEERS 1,142 (4.4%) | #5 278 (0.9%) ‐864
UPWARD BOUND 1,050 (4.0%) 1,011 (3.2%) ‐39
SECOND CITY ELITE 1,041 (4.0%) 158 (0.5%) ‐883
MOSTLYRENTERS
STAPLETON PRIZM(2010 3‐MILE RADIUS)
DATA PROVIDED COURTESY OF NIELSEN‐CLARITAS http://www.sitereports.com
PRIZM SEGMENT HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYEES DIFFERENCE
MULTI‐CULTI MOSAIC 6,483 (16.7%) | #1 5,069 (9.3%) | #1 ‐1,414
UPWARD BOUND 2 (0.0%) 4,991 (9.2%) | #2 +4,991
WHITE PICKET FENCES 2 (0.0%) 3,544 (6.5%) | #3 +3,542
AMERICAN DREAMS 4,204 (10.8%) | #3 3,272 (6.0%) | #4 ‐932
URBAN ACHIEVERS 870 (2.2%) 3,068 (5.7%) | #5 +2,198
LOW‐RISE LIVING 4,206 (10.8%) | #2 2,234 (4.1%) ‐1,972
MONEY AND BRAINS 2,628 (6.8%) | #4 2,490 (4.6%) ‐138
BIG CITY BLUES 2,589 (6.7%) | #5 871 (1.6%) ‐1,718
THE COSMOPOLITANS 2,033 (5.2%) 1,583 (2.9%) ‐450
YOUNG DIGERATI 1,499 (3.9%) 424 (0.8%) ‐1,075
MOSTLYRENTERS
YELLOW FLAGS
• Large‐scale development “monoculture” that was “planted” in a relatively short period– Monitor jobs‐housing balance by segment (e.g., PRIZM household and workplace)
– Monitor availability of goods and services to households (e.g., RMP Opportunity Gap)
RED FLAGS
• The key “driver” for new growth is the highway that leaves town for distant places– Growing gaps between households and workplace numbers in individual population segments, particularly those that tend to be homeowners
• A rapid increase of for‐sale home prices, combined with:– Negligible increases in area wages– A flat or declining rental market
AVERAGE WAGES
$0$5,000
$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
annual (actual) annual (YR 2000 $)
2 to 4 xannual wages
WAGES & HOUSING
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000
$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000$200,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
annual wages (actual) 2 x wages 4 x wages median housing price
PLANNING & REGULATORY TOOLS
• Ensure adequate supply of land zoned for economic activity that promotes jobs‐housing balance
• Focus economic development efforts on industries that employ the local workforce
PLANNING & REGULATORY TOOLS
• Create incentives for housing diversity, including:– Housing types preferred by underserved segments in the local workforce
– Housing for people who would prefer to “downsize” due to empty nest or retirement
• Create incentives for diverse housing in individual neighborhoods
Richard P. Brady, Greeley City Attorney
THE GREELEY, COLORADO EXPERIENCE
GREELEY POPULATION GROWTH
YEARS POPULATION GROWTH RATE1998 72,252 1.14%
2000 74,296 2.83%
2002 81,502 9.7%
2004 85,661 5.1%
2006 90,041 5.1%
2008 94,592 5.1%
2010 94,358 ‐0.25%
AVG. ANNUAL GROWTH 2000‐2010
2.70%
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
CITY MHHIGREELEY $ 40,140WELD COUNTY $ 52,543FORT COLLINS $ 45,846LARIMER COUNTY $ 53,745COLORADO AVERAGE $ 52,015
US CENSUS, 2006 SURVEY
RESIDENTIAL UNITS
OCCUPANCY PERCENTOWNER OCCUPIED 59.6%RENTER OCCUPIED 40.4%
HOUSING UNITS (ALL TYPES)YEAR HOUSING UNITS GROWTH RATE
2000 30,250 7.82%2002 32,718 8.16%2004 34,587 5.71%2006 35,743 3.34%2008 36,072 0.92%2010 36,185 0.31%
AVG. ANNUAL GROWTH 2000‐2010
1.96%
MULTIFAMILY RESIDENCE VACANCYYEAR MULTIFAMILY VACANCY RATE
2000 5%2001 3.6%2002 5.9%2003 11.8%2004 12%2005 10.8%2006 10.6%2007 9%2008 9%
BUILDING PERMITSYEAR SINGLE FAMILY MULTI FAMILY COMMERCIAL2002 702 166 372003 603 79 392004 706 72 502005 565 100 362006 315 39 162007 152 15 332008 60 3 92009 46 0 102010 80 2 7
ZONING CLASSIFICATION BY PERCENTAGE (2006)
Single‐Family, 31.80%
Two‐Family, 3.22%
Multifamily, 6.26%PUD, 10.49%
Commercial, 6.41%
Industrial, 14.84%
Manufactured Homes, 1.05%
Agriculture, 24.43%
Percent of Land Area
TRYING ECONOMIC TIMES• GREATEST ECONOMIC DOWNTURN SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION
• REDUCED HOUSING VALUES, FORECLOSURES, CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT
• MODERATE PRICES, WAGES, NO INFLATIONARY PRESSURE
• SLOW AND PROLONGED RECOVERY FROM 9% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
• BANK CLOSURE
FORECLOSURES
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
APPROACH
CONSERVATIVE FISCAL APPROACH• CUT BUDGETS• HIRING FREEZE / NO LAYOFFS OR FURLOUGHS
• EARLY RETIREMENT
APPROACH
• NO RAISES (UNION CONCESSIONS)• KEEP DEVELOPMENT FEES COMPETITIVE• PROVIDE INCENTIVES FOR PRIMARY JOBS• FOOD SALES TAX EXTENDED BY VOTERS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS
RESULTS
RECENT JOB GROWTH IN GREELEYEMPLOYER JOBS ADDEDLEPRINO FOOD WHEY & CHEESE PRODUCTION
500
JBS CORPORATE H.Q. (BEEF / CHICKEN) 400JBS TRANSPORTATION TRUCKING 200
GREELEY’S RESULTS
RECENT JOB GROWTH IN GREELEYEMPLOYER JOBS ADDEDSCHNEIDER ENERGY OIL & GAS 88NOBLE ENERGY OIL & GAS 400
MORE GOOD NEWS
JOBS RETAINED – BUILDING EXPANSIONS– JOHN ELWAY CHRYSLER JEEP DODGE DEALERSHIP
–GREELEY HYUNDAI AUTO DEALERSHIP–KING SOOPERS MARKET PLACE–BANNER HEALTH ‐ HOSPITAL–NATIONAL BOARD OF CHIROPRACTIC EXAMINERS
GREELEY’S ECONOMIC DEVEOPMENT INCENTIVES & TOOLS
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVES*SALES AND USE TAX WAIVER*PERSONAL PROPETY TAX REBATE*INDUSTRIAL WATER BANK*RESIDENT JOB REBATE*BUILDING PERMIT FEE WAIVER
LEGISLATIVE TOOLS
• MAJOR ZONING UPDATE (1998)– ALLOW FOR NEWER FORMS OF DEVELOPMENT– RECOGNIZES THAT PUD HADN’T BEEN USED TO IMPROVE QUALITY
• NEIGHBORHOOD STALIZATION PROGRAM• TAX INCREMENT DISTRICT• LOW DEVELOPMENT FEES• CODE ENFORCEMENT DECRIMINALIZATION
LEGISLATIVE TOOLS
• NEIGHBORHOOD IMPROVEMENT PLANS/GRANTS
• OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT• HERITAGE TOURISM
QUESTIONS?
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
PANELISTS
ORGANIZER / PANELIST: Todd Messenger, AICPCode Practice LeaderKendig Keast Collaborative6860 S. Yosemite Ct., Ste. 2000Centennial, CO 80112T. (303) 577‐7466F. (720) 255‐[email protected]
PANELIST: Rick Brady, Esq.City AttorneyCity of GreeleyT. (970) 350‐[email protected]
MODERATOR: Andy Firestine, [email protected]
RESOURCES
MARKET RESEARCH DATA:Nielsen‐Claritas SiteReportswww.sitereports.com(866) 737‐7429
Special Thanks for Nielsen‐Claritas for its contribution of the following reports to this study:• Area Maps• RMP Opportunity Gap –Merchandise Lines Report
• PRIZM Household Distribution 2010• Workplace PRIZM Distribution 2010• Pop‐Facts: Demographic Snapshot 2010 Report
NED FILING DATA:Weld County Public Trusteewww.wcpto.com
Denver County Public Trusteewww.denvergov.org/Public_Trustee
Larimer County Public Trusteewww.co.larimer.co.us/publictrustee
U.S. CENSUS DATA:American Community Surveywww.census.gov/acs/www
2010 Censuswww.census.gov
STUDY AREA GROWTH& NED FILINGS
CensusTract
2000 Housing Units
2005‐2009 ACS Housing Units
Housing Unit Change
NED Filings
NED Filings as a Percent of Housing Units
Greeley 14.01 2,921 7,147 4,226 540 13%
GVR 83.03 3,624 9,142 5,518 1,178 21%
Loveland 17.05 2,672 5,288 2,616 214 4%
Stapleton 41.05 3 3,048 3,045 84 3%
*Institutional population was 2,571.
WELD COUNTY SHIFT‐SHARE ANALYSIS
Weld County State of Colorado Shift Share Location Quotient
2000 Employment 2009 EmploymentRate of Growth or Decline 2000 Employment 2009 Employment
Rate of Growth or Decline Share (Overall Growth) Proportional Shift Differential Shift LQ 2009
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 3,270 3,261 (0.0028) 14,830 13,776 (0.0711) 0.0064 (0.0092) 0.0683 6.5688
Mining 1,110 2,752 1.4793 11,692 24,005 1.0531 0.0064 1.4729 0.4262 3.1813
Utilities 258 285 0.1047 13,375 14,227 0.0637 0.0064 0.0982 0.0410 0.5559
Construction 5,148 6,795 0.3199 166,783 134,331 (0.1946) 0.0064 0.3135 0.5145 1.4037
Manufacturing 11,090 10,733 (0.0322) 189,378 130,014 (0.3135) 0.0064 (0.0386) 0.2813 2.2908
Wholesale Trade 3,340 3,474 0.0401 100,043 93,275 (0.0677) 0.0064 0.0337 0.1078 1.0335
Retail Trade 7,645 7,709 0.0084 245,103 239,700 (0.0220) 0.0064 0.0020 0.0304 0.8925Transportation and Warehousing 2,347 2,228 (0.0507) 84,642 73,646 (0.1299) 0.0064 (0.0571) 0.0792 0.8395
Information 1,037 1,196 0.1533 108,580 77,217 (0.2888) 0.0064 0.1469 0.4422 0.4298
Finance and Insurance 2,806 3,492 0.2445 101,562 102,057 0.0049 0.0064 0.2381 0.2396 0.9495Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 826 963 0.1659 46,029 43,858 (0.0472) 0.0064 0.1594 0.2130 0.6093Professional and Technical Services 1,795 1,867 0.0401 152,514 170,708 0.1193 0.0064 0.0337 (0.0792) 0.3035Management of Companies and Enterprises 740 931 0.2581 18,098 28,550 0.5775 0.0064 0.2517 (0.3194) 0.9049Administrative and Waste Services 4,234 3,799 (0.1027) 145,626 132,108 (0.0928) 0.0064 (0.1092) (0.0099) 0.7980
Educational Services 6,656 8,553 0.2850 158,754 194,819 0.2272 0.0064 0.2786 0.0578 1.2183Health Care and Social Assistance 6,145 7,793 0.2682 189,434 253,265 0.3370 0.0064 0.2618 (0.0688) 0.8539Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 605 926 0.5306 46,487 49,952 0.0745 0.0064 0.5242 0.4560 0.5144Accommodation and Food Services 5,095 5,913 0.1605 204,191 218,686 0.0710 0.0064 0.1541 0.0896 0.7503Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 1,603 1,874 0.1691 65,463 66,451 0.0151 0.0064 0.1626 0.1540 0.7826
Public Administration 3,640 4,759 0.3074 124,041 140,000 0.1287 0.0064 0.3010 0.1788 0.9433
Total 69,390 79,303 0.1429 2,186,625 2,200,645 0.0064
SCATTER PLOTS FOR VARIABLES IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS