Managing Megacities

Mehtab S. Karim, PhD

Research Professor

School of Public Policy

George Mason University, USA

President

The Metropolitan Institute

Karachi, Pakistan

The two most important events since 1950 which have affected our life are?

• Phenomenal increase in the world’s population from 2.6 billion in 1950 to over 7.4 billion in 2015.

• The world has been transformed from a predominantly rural to predominantly urban entity.

In 1950 28% of the world’s population was urban

In 2010 it increased to 55% in 2015

In the emergence of cities, today’s developing countries played a prominent role. For example, over 5000 years cities were thriving in Iraq, Egypt, China and present day Pakistan.

However today, the sheer size of cities in developing countries cast doubt on their ability to continue providing improved standards of living.

Kingsley Davis, a well-known Social Demographer, held three traits responsible for the destruction of ancient cities

-- constant in-migration

-- too many people with high density and

-- concentration of wealth in few families.

Thus, in the early 1950s, he had warned that if the modern cities are unable to cope with these three traits, they will soon encounter spread of diseases, environmental depletion and street violence through internal conflicts leading to deaths and serious injuries.

• During much of the past few centuries, much of urban growth occurred in developed countries (Europe, North America and Japan).

• Consequently, among the 20 largest cities in the world in 1950, 17 were located in developed countries

• During the past 50 years, however, cities in developing countries have been growing much faster.

• Thus, in 2000, out of 30 largest cities, 22 were located in developing countries.

• In 2015 out of 20 largest cities, 17 are located in developing countries.

Population size 20 largest cities of the world

Source: Demographia World Atlas 2015

Today 9 out of 10 world’s 10 Largest cities are located in Asia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 2015

The rapid urban growth in developing countries is

becoming a major challenge. For example:

– In 1950 only 18% of people in developing countries lived in cities.

– In 2000 that percentage was more than doubled to

40% which has now exceeded 50%

– In developing countries besides natural increase (births minus deaths), rapid urban growth is mainly due to substantial migration to cities from rural areas.

– In the coming decades cities in developing countries will continue growing rapidly since every year millions of people relocate there, mainly due to high rate of natural increase in the rural areas, which increases population pressure on agricultural land forcing people to migrate to cities.

For example since 1960, most Asian countries have experienced rapid increase in percentage of

population living in urban areas

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

Bangladesh China India Indonesia

Korea, South Malaysia Pakistan Thailand

Rapid urbanization in developing countries have created many problems but it also shows profound impact on economic well being of the people.

But a country needs to be more than 50% to reach that threshold.

Percent Urban and GDP Per Capita (US $ PPP) Selected Asian Countries

Country

Percent

Urban

Per Capita

GD PPP $

Indonesia 53.0 11,135

China 54.4 13,181

Malaysia 74.0 25,632

Korea 82.4 36,601

Japan 93.0 38,216

Hong Kong 100.0 56,428

Singapore 100.0 85,198

Country

Percent

Urban

Per Capita

GD PPP $

Nepal 18.0 2,489

Cambodia 21.0 3,477

Bangladesh 32.0 3,581

India 32.4 6,266

Myanmar 34.0 5,101

Pakistan 38.3 4,886

Philippines 44.5 7,348

Urban Growth in Pakistan

Between 1951-1998

• About four-fold increase was recorded in Pakistan’s total population (from 33.7 million to 132.4 million)

• The rural population increased about 3 time (from 27.7 to 88.1 million)

• The urban population increased over 7 times (from 6 million to 42.5 million)

Pakistan’s Unchecked Urbanization: Some Facts

• 1998 Census identified about 33% population was living in urban Areas.

• However, if the definition of urban areas is applied properly and there were no under-reporting of urban population it was already about 40%.

• Perhaps soon it will be 50%.

THE CASE OF KARACHI

0.672 0.849 1.296 2.170

2.953

5.443

10.1

0.387 1.068

1.913

3.515

5.208

11.339

22.1

1941 1951 1961 1972 1981 1998 2015

Lahore Karachi

From a small town in 1941 Karachi’s population has grown by 20 times since 1951, whereas that of Lahore has grown by 12 times

Karachi has grown more rapidly due to internal migration. For example; While Karachi contained about 8% of Pakistan’s population in 1998, of all those people who migrated internally (within Pakistan) during the 1990s, chose to settle in Karachi. In comparison, the four largest districts – Lahore, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi and Multan which combined together contained about 21% of the country’s population – received about the same number of internal migrants

Karachi’s growing stature in the World

Year Population (million)

World Ranking

1970 3.0 Above 30th

1980 5.0 22nd

1990 8.0 19th

2000 11.6 12th

2015 22.1 7th

And it has the distinction of being on the list of 10 Most Dangerous Cities in The World to Travel

Rank City Country

1 San Pedro Sula Honduras

2 Karachi Pakistan

3 Kabul Afghanistan

4 Baghdad Iraq

5 Acapulco Mexico

6 Guatemala City Guatemala

7 Rio de Janeiro Brazil

8 Cape Town South Africa

9 Ciudad Juarez Mexico

10 Caracas Venezuela

And worst still • In 2013, a US magazine Foreign Policy, termed Karachi

“the most dangerous megacity” in the world.

• The magazine cited a murder rate of 12.3 per 100,000 residents, “some 25 percent higher than any other major city”.

• Commenting on the recent pace of change in Karachi, the report states:

“From 2000 to 2010, Karachi’s population grew more

than 80 percent. That’s roughly equivalent to adding more

than New York City’s entire population in just a decade.”

With a population exceeding 22 million today Karachi needs national attention which it has been denied for too long.

These include better urban planning, improved public transportation, better sanitation, rational water use policies, energy conservation, waste management and most important better allocation of resources.

What I have shared with you, is just an example of

the way Karachi city is growing.

The numbers may be different for Lahore, Faisalabad, Peshawar, Quetta and even some smaller cities in the country, as the growth of these cities may be equally alarming.

Unlike, the ancient cities, our cities may not disappear from

the map, however, we need concerted efforts to address the

growing problems of our cities through provision of:

• low cost housing to the poor

• better public transportation

• rational water use policies

• proper waste management & sanitation

• providing employment opportunities to youth and

• more allocation of resources for health, education and

other basic urban services.

If we are unable to address these basic issues and don’t

pay heed to the changing reality of rapid urbanization,

poverty and hopelessness could become widespread

leading to rising discontent and civil unrest.

Otherwise, one wonders if what Kingsley Davis mentions

as the causes of destruction of ancient cities, may come

true closer to home.

How to meet the challenges of urbanization

Housing

Promote incremental housing for poor:

--Occupants charged only what they can afford

--Residents receive only the services they can pay for

--Self-financed, simple, transparent, non-bureaucratic

Transport

Our urban transport policy promotes heavy use of automobiles (signal free roads, flyovers etc.)

--But most Pakistanis don’t own or use cars (only 21% in Karachi and 16% of households in Lahore own cars)

There has been a failure to understand market demand for public transport.

--Karachi is the only megacity in the world without a mass

transit system

Health

--Urban residents are highly vulnerable to communicable as well as non-communicable diseases. Over 80% of urban population is physically inactive (substantially higher percentage than in rural areas)

--Urban residents are stricken by illnesses linked to environmental degradation (e.g. waterborne diseases) on the one hand and due to various other reasons diseases of modern era.

--Pakistan’s public health system suffers due to multiple problems such as high costs and poor quality of care (both in urban and rural areas).

Education

• The government has passed on this responsibility (specially at school level) mostly to the private sector.

• On the one hand, only children of affluent families get better educated. Resulting in substantial deterioration of public sector institutions.

Some Policy Recommendations: Related to Governance

Establish urban governance principles and initiate institutional reforms

--overhaul the urban bureaucracy;

--make the civil service more meritocratic;

--create cadre of civil servants and induct from the market

those who are more aware of urban issues;

--give more autonomy to local governments serving cities

Tools, Connections & Partnerships

Exploit the power of technology and telecommunications

--social media, TV, mobile phones can help tackle urban challenges.

Connect the dots between cities, health, and environment

--develop efficient urban public transport

--tighten links between city services and environment and health sectors

Encourage public-private partnerships

--Private capital is essential, as public sector can’t manage the challenges of urbanization on its own.

Besides

Broaden the definition of urban

include high-density rural regions in definition

Learn from the experiences of other countries into account

Controlled rural-urban migration as in Korea and China

Urban transport successes in Latin America

Lowering of urban violence in Colombian cities

Undertake frequent data collection through census, sample surveys and surveillance systems

Research Project on Managing Karachi Megacity

Through a grant from the US State Department the School of Public Policy at George Mason University signed a research partnership agreement with the Faculty of Management Sciences at the University of Karachi to pursue research five sub-themes related to Karachi.

Research Sub-themes Data through a household sample survey are being collected in Karachi to seek opinion of end users on five issues which could help policy makers. These include:

1. Water & Sanitation

2. Transport

3. Health

4. Education

5. Youth

An International Conference is being organized on May 24-26, 2016 in Karachi, where findings from the survey will be presented and policy dialogues will be initiated with the relevant departments of the Government of Sindh and City Government of Karachi. We are also inviting abstracts from researchers and policy makers in Pakistan and elsewhere, working on specific sub-themes. For submission of abstracts please contact: jwitte@gmu.edu with cc to mkarim2@gmu.edu

THANKS