1. Managing risk in a highly variable climate- Farmer case study example Barry Mudge Farmer Consultant Port Germein 2. Port Germein 3. Vital Statistics

Farm size 1600 Ha

Fourth generation since closer settlement in 1878

Average Annual Rainfall (Port Germein) 329mm (175 625 mm)

Average Growing Season Rainfall (April to October) 227mm (85 -485 mm)

Mixed farming program- predominantly Wheat/ Sheep

4. Historic Crop Yields 6. Strategic Resilience Tactical Responsiveness 7. Tactical Management- Dealing with risk

Attempting to predict seasonal variability

Respond accordingly

8. Tactical Responses- Dealing with risk

Final crop yields are heavily influenced by PAW at seeding and time of seeding.

Responses can reduce downside risk and maximise upside opportunity

Focus on tactical responsiveness has been fundamental in surviving the past few difficult seasons

9. Recent important developments

Maximising PAW at sowing (GRDC WUE Initiative and CSIRO Plant Industry)

Direct Drilling

13. Direct Drilling and Early Seeding- Why is this so important? 14. Take Home Message

Climatically challenged farming systems have shown remarkable resilience to date

Harnessing the variability in these systems is the key to making them robust

Technology will continue to allow these systems to evolve

15. Climate Change

A warmer and dryer word is likely to bring new boundaries

Likely to have fewer good years- need to capture these better

Rate of change may increase- adaptations will need to keep pace

Strong role for the scientific and research community in assisting with the change process- investing public funds in R & D is imperative to making these farming systems work with ramifications throughout these communities

16. Yield Probabilities-2006/2007 64% 24% High 3.0 t/ha and over 23% 26% Medium 1.8 to 3.0 t/ha 13% 50% Low -Up to 1.8t/ha 2007 2006 Yield 64% 24% High 3.0 t/ha and over 23% 26% Medium 1.8 to 3.0 t/ha 13% 50% Low -Up to 1.8t/ha 2007 2006 Yield 17. Low Modelled Plant Available Water at seeding (PAW 78 mm)-Port Germein 19. Modelled effects of PAW at seeding against simulated yields at Quorn- 1900 to 2009 20. What happened in 2007

Reduced sowings in 2005 and 2006 due to predicted lower yields

Large summer rainfall event in Jan 2007 and March 2007

Good opening rain in April 2007

Maximum crop area sown into full soil moisture profile

Very low rainfall for balance of growing season

Average to slightly below average yields

Strong profit result due to good prices

21. Co-Author Acknowledgement

Original aboriginal inhabitants

William Mudge- First white settler 1878

Ern Mudge-Son of William

Laurence Mudge- Son of Ern and father of Barry