Plan Amsterdam04

Amsterdam is flourishing. In recent years the number of visitors has grown by 5% per year, outpacing the growth of its population (1% on average). The property crisis, which started in 2008, seems to have been long forgotten. In 2015, the city built 8,000 new homes as well as many new hotels and buildings providing different combinations of short term housing, work and overnight stay. The pace of change is growing ever faster, which is particularly noticeable in those parts of the city where space is at a premium. More people are cycling more often, more residents go out and about more often to explore the city or the surrounding countryside and more jobs have been created. The sharing economy is boosting the consumption of goods and services, resulting in the rapid rise of car sharing concepts and companies such as Airbnb and WimDu, which broker between suppliers and users of rental holiday accom-modation.

The city’s success is down to a set of key characteristics which Amsterdam shares with many other European

cities, including an attractive city centre, good transport links and high quality cultural amenities. In light of global urbanisation and Amsterdam’s abiding popularity, the city has a bright future if it can take advantage of the opportunities that are there.

If the city keeps growing at the current rate, Amsterdam will have a population of 950,000 people by the year 2025. This means new housing, more jobs and an increase in bicycle traffic. The number of visitors is also expected to keep rising at the current rate of 5% a year. Including day visitors, the current amount of visitors is 17.3 million per year. So if the forecast is correct, this number will have risen to 23 million per year by 2025. How is Amsterdam going to deal with this growth?

Traffic and public nuisancesAmsterdam’s growth and increasing scale also has its drawbacks: the increase in traffic and public nuisances can disturb the social balance and lead to social division.

>

Managing the flip side of successby Claartje van Ette and Eric van der Kooij c.van.ette@amsterdam.nl / e.van.der.kooij@amsterdam.nl

Amsterdam is a city popular with residents, businesses and visitors from the

Netherlands and abroad. To manage the city’s and region’s growth, the City

in Balance project was set up in 2015, looking for solutions to the complex

issue of striking a balance between crowding and peace and quiet, between

living, working and leisure and between the advantages and disadvantages

of a busy, popular city.

0504 | 2016

1a 1b

2 3

1a-b The downside of Amsterdam’s popularity: street litter, one of Amsterdam’s top annoyances (a), and overflowing bike jams (b).Photo: Cécile Obertop / Alphons Nieuwenhuis

2 Many Amsterdam museums attract long queues, like this one at the Anne Frank House.Photo: Cécile Obertop

3 Late night shopping in Kalverstraat, Amsterdam’s busiest shopping street. For trendy chain stores it is essential to have a presence in this busy shopping street, resulting in a less varied mix of shops.Photo: Edwin van Eis

Plan Amsterdam064b

4a

04 | 2016 07

>

4a-b Damrak in the seventies (a). Below, an impression of the upgraded Damrak in 2015 (b). City planning is facing a new paradigm. Whereas only 35 years ago the car was still the dominant mode of transport, the current debate focuses on the conflicting interests of cyclists and pedestrians.Photo: ANP FOTO, Cor Out / Artist impression: City of Amsterdam

5 View from the Adam Tower across the IJ on the ferry stop at Central Station, where every day thou-sands of cyclists and pedestrians hop on and off. The city conducted an experiment to regulate boarding by applying red and green paint on the pavements.Photo: Edwin van Eis

The changes at hand concern traffic, accommodation and leisure. Amsterdam’s public space is in ever shorter supply, with long queues at its museums, bicycle jams and traffic congestion caused by cars, taxis and touring coaches. In addition, there’s also a rise in transport service providers such as bicycle taxis, Tuk Tuks, Segways and a variety of delivery services. Conflicts on the roads, which used to be mainly restricted to driver-cyclist incidents, are now also increasingly arising between cyclists and pedestrians. These conflicts are often borne from frustration with other people’s behaviour

in situations where there is already precious little space to manoeuvre.

Behind the city’s facades things are also changing at a fast pace. The rise in holiday apartment rentals and new hotels, as well as city hot spots such as De Hallen and the number of ice cream parlours – also in relation to the reduced diversity of shops – all need to be addressed.

Recreational behaviour has also changed. There has been an increase in pubs and restaurants as well as events and festivals in the city, causing not only fun, festivity

5

Plan Amsterdam08

and economic gain, but increasingly also frustration and disapproval. Residents resent the noise nuisance, the large amounts of street litter and the reduced accessi-bility of the city’s parks. Crowding and nuisance are concepts which are dependent on the person who experiences it as well as the place and time and the kind of nuisance experienced. This is why City in Balance and related issues are politically charged and hotly debated in public discourse.

GoalsCity in Balance is a search for a new equilibrium between growth and quality of life. It is an integrated, comprehensive approach, focused on the city’s spatial-economic conditions. The main goal is to maintain Amsterdam and its metropolitan area’s appeal for all users, particularly its residents. As well as a clean, safe and accessible city and region, this also means building more homes and schools, creating more space for free enterprise to flourish and developing excellent public spaces such as sport facilities and parks. This is an objective which affects several policy areas (see p.10 ‘Overlap’) and means that City in Balance calls upon all stake holders to get actively involved. The overall ambition comprises three goals:

1 Amsterdam aims to be an appealing city for everyone

Hospitality and a welcoming spirit is essential to achieve this, as well as the ambition to become a sustainable city for future generations.

2 Amsterdam embraces growth and prosperity whilst preserving its liveability

In order to maintain Amsterdam’s appeal and growth in the long term, the city should preserve its diversity, also in terms of its amenities.

3 Amsterdam chooses to operate on a human scale The human scale has for centuries determined how

we engage with each other in this city, with space for individual freedom and respect for society as a whole. Amsterdam cherishes its open, mixed and colourful community and wants to retain its diversity, tolerance and open-minded spirit.

Inspire, connect, stimulate and accelerateCity in Balance is not a project, process or programme. It’s meant to get the city into gear, with scope and meaning gaining shape and roles becoming more clearly defined as we go along. City in Balance focuses on inspiring, connecting and stimulating people to drive and accellerate existing ideas and projects. The idea is to

6 The growth of the city increases pressure on the public space. One of the effects is the increase of bicycle jams.Photo: Karla Gutiérrez

7a-c Stereotypes of two contrasting perceptions. Amsterdam cyclists see themselves being blocked by tourists taking pictures standing on the city’s cycling paths. Tourists see a stampede of wild Amsterdam cyclists, making it virtually impossible just to cross the road.Source: T. Pasma, Jongens van de Tekeningen

6 7a

04 | 2016 09

engage with policy areas such as Traffic, Environment, Events, Economy and Water and to follow an area oriented approach. Collaborations will include city district managers, policy officers, cultural institutes, businesses, app-builders, resident associations and city marketeers. This approach also fits in well with the experimental strategy of testing possible solutions on a small scale to contribute to middle and long term targets.

Strategic choicesThe balance between the hustle and bustle of city life and peace and quiet, between life, work and leisure and between the advantages and disadvantages of city life is a complex matter. Real solutions require real stamina and weighing a range of different interests. Rather than taking a cautious stance, the council wants to work together with residents, businesses and visitors. Based on discussions and lessons learned from other cities, Amsterdam has set out its course, focusing on four strategic orientations:1 Making the city bigger By spreading visitors, encouraging development

of existing districts outside of the city centre and creating new urban centres across the city and the region.

2 Making the city smarter By using new technologies which allow the city to

adapt more quickly and easily to the changing use of the public domain. Collaborating with the many first-rate knowledge institutes across the city, we want to become Europe’s fastest learning city.

3 Seeing the city differently Approaching current problems in a different way,

we can develop new insights and new solutions. We experiment and learn before we roll out promising solutions.

4 Calling on people to work together The council cannot and will not do it alone. Most

solutions lie with people within the city and region. What’s needed is the commitment of all the city’s users.

Future scenariosThe rate of economic, technological and social change is high and increasingly unbalanced. A fast changing environment requires the city council and its stakeholders to be flexible and adaptable. What should the city prepare for in the coming years? How do you adopt flexible and adaptive policies, ensuring today’s decisions will keep pace with new developments in the future?

>

‘City in Balance is a search for a new equilibrium between growth and quality of life.’

7b 7c

Plan Amsterdam10

To be able to respond to social dynamics and world-wide trends, the council has adopted scenario planning, a proven method to better control uncertainty and a powerful tool to develop policies and test decisions. Scenario planning helps the council to prepare for possible future situations and incorporate more flexibility in their policies.

Looking at the near future, people fear that Amsterdam will be flooded with foreign visitors in the coming years. This highly depends on how the global economy and European stability will turn out. If Europe remains stable, developing economies can sustain their growth and the cost of travel is kept within affordable limits, it is likely that the number of visitors to the city will continue to rise. This will possibly put further negative pressure on the quality of life in the city, especially in the city

centre. In this scenario, amenities will need to continue to respond to visitors’ demands though. With an expected strong increase of 65-plus visitors in the coming years, demands will change as well, as these older visitors will prioritise comfort and safety.

If, on the other hand, Europe falls apart, economic growth in countries such as China, India and Indonesia shrinks and the cost of travel rises, it is more likely that the growth of tourism will flatten. This outcome could be further reinforced by the (possibly temporary) effects of any future terrorist acts in Europe. In this scenario, the projected increase in the city’s hotel capacity to 2022 could lead to overcapacity. So it’s important to take into account a variety of different scenarios and to continue to closely monitor new developments.

>

Overlap

The City in Balance programme relates to a

variety of urban issues and policies. Many of

the policies are incorporated in:

– Mobility Implementation Plan

– Home building action plan

– Vision Document 2025: Densifying the city

– Green Agenda

– Touring Coach Policy

– Sustainability Agenda

– Noise Action Plan

– Arts and Culture Plan

– Overnight Stay Policy with regard to new

hotels and holiday lets

– Neighbourhood Strategy Amsterdam Marketing

– Water Vision

– Public Space Vision

– Summary of Principles for new Events Policy

– Strategic Agenda Tourism Amsterdam

Metropolitan Area (AMA) 2025

– Waste plan

– Priorities on law enforcement

8

8 Eddie Obeng’s ‘After Midnight’ concept main-tains that our learning capabilities cannot keep up with the current pace of change. According to Obeng, the solution lies in ‘smart failure’ by improvisation and experimentation.Based on: After Midnight, Eddie Obeng

speed of changes learning ability

size

time

smart failure +how to improvise(experiments)

planning ahead(masterplan)

04 | 2016 11

9 This graphic shows the projected increase in tourism, population, homes and jobs. Four scenarios for 2025, in the middle the situation of 2015.Source: Amsterdam Economic Board

20,000 homes extra homes in this scenario 20,000 residents extra residents in this scenario 20,000 jobs extra jobs in this scenario

Day visitors Dutch foreign

Overnight visitors Dutch foreign

situation 2015

Future scenarios

In 2012 the Amsterdam Economic Board

commissioned Jester Advies to develop four

future scenarios for the metropolitan region to

2025. These four possible futures are based on

Europe’s political stability (will the European

Union remain intact or fall apart) and business

and industry’s economic systems (demand-

driven versus supply-driven).

Global Giants

According to this scenario, we will be living in a

strongly globalised world centred on economic

growth and continued prosperity built on market

domination, an increasingly individualised society

and thriving consumerism. Europe has a flourishing

free internal market and a strong position in the

world market. Europe’s increased prosperity and

stability has resulted in extra pressure on cities, in

terms of growth in population, jobs and tourism.

European Renewal

Europe has made big strides towards financial and

economic integration. Guided by Brussels, metro-

politan regions such as Amsterdam have made the

change to a new, high-tech economy with a strong

focus on sustainability and social enterprise. There’s

a strong community spirit and social challenges

are addressed collectively. In this scenario, there’s

an increase in population, jobs and tourism as

well, but the rise is not as sharp as in the Global

Giants scenario.

International Alliances

Europe has become fragmented and fragile.

Individual countries are trying to protect their own

economies. The Netherlands is faced with strong

competition from other European countries and

tries to establish long-term relationships with

emerging regions outside Europe. In this scenario,

many Amsterdam businesses and residents have

trouble making ends meet. The city is attracting

fewer visitors and tourism has weakened as an

economic pillar to rely on. Although urbanisation

is continuing, employment rates are lagging.

Local for Local

Europe has fallen apart. The Netherlands has

managed to recover by becoming increasingly self-

sufficient. The economy has a regional character,

trade and partnerships are predominantly

conducted with neighbouring countries.

Local communities are strong and many social

programmes are initiated by citizens and

businesses. In this scenario the development of

new jobs is lagging and tourism is contracting.

Plan Amsterdam12

DilemmasCity in Balance throws up numerous complex challenges and dilemmas. The first dilemma can be characterised as Democracy 2.0 and centres on the issue of how to involve all residents. Usually a small group is able to attract all the (media) attention while the silent majority is not heard.

The second dilemma centres on knowledge. How much information do you need before you can take a decision? Is it possible to act quickly yet carefully? It seems logical to make decisions on the basis of all the reliable information available, but this is only partially true. Research has shown that the effects of decisions are lessened the more information is col-lected before making a decision. This means that it’s important to have the courage to take decisions without having complete knowledge of the issue at hand. It takes leadership and trust to act in these circumstances. To create a good balance in the city will require making a number of robust decisions. For instance, how to cope with growing levels of pedestrians in areas which are also used by large numbers of cyclists.

The third dilemma is the ‘planning dilemma’: how do you go from making a plan to actually effectuating this

plan? The rate of change is outpacing the learning capability of our societies. There was a time when new developments could be anticipated, and a well-designed plan could do wonders. These days, the rate of change is so high that a traditional plan is not going to work. According to Eddie Obeng and his New World After Midnight philosophy, we need ‘smart failure’ to cope, taking small steps without losing sight of the long term goals. Experimental and improvisational strategies as well as using scenarios to explore possible future situations and policies are all an integral part of this approach. This means that there is never just one plan, but alternative plans can be implemented in case other scenarios arise. Robust choices are policies which are effective in multiple scenarios.

New phaseCity in Balance is concerned with issues which are part of a new phase in Amsterdam’s development and which are also evident in other successful cities. These are issues which require a new approach focused on multiple scale levels, from neighbourhood to region, and across a variety of areas to identify new aspects of the experience, perception and use of the city.

10 Alternative events programming helps to spread visitor numbers and crowding across the seasons. The Amsterdam Light Festival takes place in winter.Photo: Edwin van Eis

11a-b Spreading events and alcohol sales licensing for Queen’s Day in 2011 and King’s Day in 2014. In 2014 more events were moved to locations out-side the city centre, including the popular Radio 538 concert which was moved to the town of Alkmaar (not featured on this map).Source: City of Amsterdam

Number of visitors per event

> 10,000 2,000-10,000 500-2,000 < 500

10