United NationsSudan

Managing the recovery challenge

in Sudan

Slide 1Nov-09

Ameerah Haq

DSRSG/RC/HC/UNDP-RR

United Nations Sudan

United NationsSudan

A. The recovery challenge

B. Sudan’s situation in perspective

Aid profile

Basic needs

Governance and state capacity

Security

C. Key priorities for 2010 and beyond

Slide 2Nov-09

Content

United NationsSudan

A. The recovery challenge

Slide 3Nov-09

United NationsSudan

The importance of getting the timing right

Slide 4Nov-09

Aid flows in post-conflict situations

Source: United Nations Sudan

Time

Resources

t 0t -2 t +2 t +4

$

The recovery

challenge

Development aid

• Poverty-reducing, long-

term support

• Led by national actors

and priorities

• Based on Paris

Declaration principles

Humanitarian aid

• Life-saving, short-term

action

• Based on neutrality,

independence and

impartiality

years

United NationsSudan

Managing the recovery challenge

Slide 5Nov-09

Six key interventions in post-conflict environments

Key

interventions

Assess the needs

Manage expectations

Improve basic services visibly

Make people feel safe

Ensure good governanceBuild state capacity quickly

1

6

5

2

3

4

United NationsSudan

B. Putting Sudan’s situation into perspective

Slide 6Nov-09

Aid profile

United NationsSudan

Aid flows to Liberia

Slide 7

Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million

0

250

500

750

1,000

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs

Nov-09

Development aid as share of total

Humanitarian

Development

United NationsSudan

Aid flows to Afghanistan

Slide 8

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

Nov-09

Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million

Development aid as share of total

Humanitarian

Development

Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs

United NationsSudan

Aid flows to the Democratic Republic of Congo

Slide 9

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

Nov-09

Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million

Development aid as share of total

Humanitarian

Development

Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs

United NationsSudan

Aid flows to Sudan

Slide 10

0

550

1,100

1,650

2,200

2,750

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

Nov-09

Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million

Development aid as share of total

Humanitarian

Development

Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs

United NationsSudan

B. Putting Sudan’s situation into perspective

Slide 11Nov-09

Aid profile

Basic needs

United NationsSudan

Sudan’s human development indicators improved

Slide 12

Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2009, countries with human development index values higher than 0.46 and lower than 0.5 in 2000, 2000 = 100

Nov-09

Improvement in Sudan’s Human Development Index compared to its peer group in 2000

1999 2001 2003 2005 20072000

BangladeshNigeria

Papua New G.

Haiti

Ghana

Mauritania

Malawi

Timor-LesteCote d’Ivoire

Sudan (HDI 2000=0.491; 2007=0.531=150/180)

100

+2%

+10%

+4%

+6%

+8%

HDI Change (2000=100)

United NationsSudan

Overall, Sudan’s economy is growing

Slide 13

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

100

150

200

250

300

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (2009)

Nov-09

Nominally, per capita incomes (PPP) doubled in Africa since 1985, but tripled in Sudan

Sudan

Africa

Developing countries

2007

United NationsSudan

Sudan’s population grows faster than the region’s

Slide 14

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

100

120

140

160

180

200

Source: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, US Census Bureau (International Database), www.ssrc.org for urbanization

Nov-09

From 1983 to 2008 Sudan’s population rose from 19m to 39m. It will reach 52m in 2020

Sudan

Northern Africa

Africa

1983=100 2008

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Est. level of urbanization in Sudan

United NationsSudan

Different challenges in a vast country

Slide 15Nov-09

A country the size of a continent Challenges by region

0 200 500km

France

NL

Afghanistan

Sierra

Leone

Zimbabwe

Rwanda

Burundi

Area comparatives (1:1)

• Darfur: IDP return, hum. aid to 4.7m

people, community level recovery

• East: forgotten crisis, protracted refugee

situation, health crisis

• Three Areas: PCA, Misseryia migration,

recovery/conflict resolution

• South: budget pressure, tribal conflict,

food crisis, protection

• National: CPA milestones, GoSS and

GNU cooperation, Darfur peace process

United NationsSudan

Extreme regional differences

Slide 16Nov-09

Net primary school attendance (%) Net primary school att. (bottom 10, world)

Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006)

Slide 16

0

20

40

60

80

100South

Darfur

22%

36%

38%

40%

45%

47%

47%

50%

51%

52%

Somalia

Chad

Niger

Liberia

Ethiopia

Burkina Faso

Eritrea

Haiti

Guinea

Congo, Dem. R.

Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009)

North and rest

United NationsSudan

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Extreme regional differences

Slide 17Nov-09

Maternal mortality (per 100,000 births) Maternal mortality (bottom 10, world)

Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006)

Slide 17

2,100

1,800

1,800

1,500

1,400

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,100

Sierra Leone

Afghanistan

Niger

Chad

Angola

Somalia

Rwanda

Liberia

Burundi

Congo, Dem. R.

Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009)

South

Darfur

North and rest

United NationsSudan

0

20

40

60

80

100

Extreme regional differences

Slide 18Nov-09

Access to improved sanitation (%)

Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006)

South

Darfur

5%

7%

9%

10%

11%

11%

12%

12%

13%

19%

Eritrea

Niger

Chad

Ghana

Ethiopia

Sierra Leone

Madagascar

Togo

Burkina Faso

Guinea

Access to sanitation (bottom 10, world)

North and rest

Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009)

United NationsSudan

Extreme regional differences

Slide 19Nov-09

Infant mortality (bottom 10, world)

Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006), National Census (1993)

Slide 19

0

40

80

120

160South*

2006

1993

Infant mortality in Sudan (per 1,000)

165

155

124

124

118

117

116

115

113

109

Afghanistan

Sierra Leone

Chad

Equatorial Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Mali

Angola

Mozambique

CAR

Rwanda

Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009)

* State-level data not available

North and rest

United NationsSudan

Social services receive insufficient public funds

Slide 20

Source: Government of Southern Sudan, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (01/2009)

Nov-09

Composition of GOSS public expenditure in 2008

Infrastructure

$373m (14.2%)

Security

$862m (32.9%)

Transfers

$207m (7.9%)

Health

$52m (2.0%)

Economic functions

$89m (3.4%)

Rural dev. / environ.

$90m (3.4%)

Education

$133m (5.1%)

Public administration

$235m (9.0%)

Rule of law

$236m (9.0%)

Accountability

$300m (11.5%)

Social affairs

$39m (1.5%)

United NationsSudan

Most aid to Sudan is humanitarian. Most of it is food.

Slide 21

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: OCHA Financial Tracking Service (10/2009), dotted line indicates data not available

Nov-09

Food aid, agriculture and early recovery as a share of total humanitarian aid

50%

100%

0%

Food aid

Agriculture

Early recovery

59%

($684m)

5%

($58m)

United NationsSudan

B. Putting Sudan’s situation into perspective

Slide 22Nov-09

Aid profile

Basic needs

Governance and state capacity

United NationsSudan

Rise in public revenue challenges state capacity

Slide 23Nov-09

Government revenue by source (billion $) Transfers to the South (billion $)

Source: Sudan Ministry of Finance, IMF Staff-monitored programme, International Financial Statistics

Slide 23

1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004 2006 2008 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Taxes

Other (incl. oil)

United NationsSudan

Weak government institutions

Slide 24Nov-09

Government effectiveness Control of corruption

Source: World Bank, World Governance Indicators (2009)

Slide 24

South Africa

Ghana

Ethiopia

Cameroon

Nigeria

Kenya

Cote d'Ivoire

Guinea

Zimbabwe

Sudan

0 25 50 75 100

South Africa

Ghana

Ethiopia

Kenya

Cameroon

Nigeria

Cote d'Ivoire

Guinea

Sudan

Zimbabwe

0 25 50 75 100

Percentile rank Percentile rank

United NationsSudan

Weak government institutions

Slide 25Nov-09

Regulatory quality Rule of law

Source: World Bank, World Governance Indicators (2009)

Slide 25

South Africa

Ghana

Ethiopia

Kenya

Cameroon

Nigeria

Sudan

Cote d'Ivoire

Guinea

Zimbabwe

0 25 50 75 100

South Africa

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Cameroon

Ethiopia

Cote d'Ivoire

Guinea

Sudan

Zimbabwe

0 25 50 75 100

Percentile rank Percentile rank

United NationsSudan

Low share of aid devoted to capacity building

Slide 26

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

Source: OECD CRS (10/2009), Commitments (curr. USD), Aid for purposes of institutional and government capacity building, training, research (codes ending 10, 81, 82, ...)

Nov-09

Institutional capacity building as a share of total foreign assistance

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 2001 2007

Afghanistan Dem. Republic of Congo Sudan

Sierra Leone Liberia Iraq

United NationsSudan

B. Putting Sudan’s situation into perspective

Slide 27Nov-09

Aid profile

Basic needs

Governance and state capacity

Security

United NationsSudan

Renewed tensions in Southern Sudan

Slide 28Nov-09

Clashes, intertribal conflict, LRA incursions More than 332,000 displaced in 2009

0 200 500km

Major

clashes

LRA

activity

Intertribal

conflict

0.8

31

2.4

25

12258

1421

76

IDPs

United NationsSudan

United NationsSudan

C. Defining key priorities for 2010 and beyond

Slide 29Nov-09

United NationsSudan

Key priorities for 2010 and beyond

Slide 30Nov-09

What we have to get right

Key

interventions

Save lives

Recovery challenge in Darfur

Strengthen governance

Build state capacity

Lay foundations for recoveryHelp stabilize and secure

5

6

1

4

2

3

• Coordinate response to acute crises

• Ensure essential services and safety nets

• Avoid that humanitarian aid substitutes for

lack of recovery and development

• Continue humanitarian action, but seek

recovery local recovery opportunities

• Mobilize recovery and development

actors and funding now

• Fast-track MDG achievement

• Support transition to government-led

development.

• Create accountability frameworks

• Review and clean up public pay rolls

• Strengthen public financial mgt.

• Juba compact

• Mitigate conflicts and reduce threats

• Focus UN support on CPA milestones

• Coordinate with UNAMID, UNMIS, JMST

• Build capacity to plan, coordinate and

deliver assistance at state level

• Rapid capacity placement

• Capacity development working group

United NationsSudan

Darfur: make the integration with UNAMID work

Slide 31Nov-09

United NationsSudan