Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Managing through
disruption for
business resilience
Noel Tagoe, PhD, FCMA, CGMA
Professor, University of Nottingham
CEO, Noel Tagoe & Company
Former Exec Vice President, AICPA-CIMA
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Crises destroy bad companies.
Good companies survive them.
Great companies are improved
by them.
Andy GroveFormer CEO, Intel
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
1Frame
disruption and
its impact
3Take practical
steps toward
resilience
2Manage
through
disruption
4A cautionary
tale about
resilience
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Frame disruption
and its impact
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll BryantImpact of
Disruption
Framework of
disruption and
its impact
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Organization
Ecosystem
Business Model
Wider Environment
Generate &
collect data
Store and
refine
data
Analyze &
interpret
data
Report &
share
insights
Financial
Strategy
Financial
Planning
Resource
Allocation
Risk
Management
Financial
Performance
Model of
Organizations
Physical
Events
Information
Flows
Financial
Flows
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
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And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Organization
Disruption Vulnerable
Impact of
disruption
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
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And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Near term (6 months)
Medium –term (18 months)
Long-term (3 years)
Timeline for organization’s
response to disruption
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Manage through
disruption
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll BryantAre rare
Have
extreme
impact
Cannot be
predicted
in advance
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Assess our
vulnerability
Maintain
vigilance
Achieve
viability
Manage disruption
in three steps
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Assess our
vulnerability
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
We need to understand our
exposure, vulnerabilities and
potential losses to inform our
resilience strategies
!
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Impact on macro variables Specific impact on organization
• 6 months’ impact (near-term)• V-curve rebound. Effective pandemic
economic response
• 18 months’ impact (medium-term)• U-curve recovery. Pandemic prolongs;
economy recovers
• 3 years’ impact (long-term)• L-curve recovery. Pandemic spreads;
economy struggles
• Positive• Revenue growth through a surge in
demand (e.g. E-commerce)
• Mildly negative• Sustained revenue loss of 0-15% for the
rest of 2020 (e.g. consumer goods)
• Severe• Sustained revenue loss of 15-50% for
the rest of 2020 (e.g. Oil & Gas)
• Catastrophic• Sustained revenue loss of over 50% for
the rest of 2020 (e.g. tourism)
Impact of Covid-19 on the organization
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Impact
MatrixPositive
Revenue growth due to demand surge
Mildly NegativeSustained revenue loss
of 0-15%
SevereSustained revenue loss
of 15-50%
CatastrophicSustained revenue loss
of over 50%
SPECIFIC IMPACT ON THE ORGANIZATION
0.5 yearsV-curve rebound.
Effective pandemic economic response
1.5 yearsU-curve recovery.
Pandemic prolongs; economy recovers
3 yearsL-curve recovery.
Pandemic spreads; economy struggles SEV
ER
ITY
AN
D D
UR
ATI
ON
OF
EC
ON
OM
IC I
MP
AC
T
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
PositiveRevenue growth due
to demand surge
Mildly NegativeSustained revenue loss
of 0-15%
SevereSustained revenue loss
of 15-50%
CatastrophicSustained revenue loss
of over 50%
SPECIFIC IMPACT ON THE ORGANIZATION
0.5 yearsV-curve rebound.
Effective pandemic economic response
1.5 yearsU-curve recovery.
Pandemic prolongs; economy recovers
3 yearsL-curve recovery.
Pandemic spreads; economy struggles
Push for growth and
market share
WinnersSEV
ER
ITY
AN
D D
UR
ATI
ON
OF
EC
ON
OM
IC I
MP
AC
T
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
At risk
PositiveRevenue growth due
to demand surge
Mildly NegativeSustained revenue loss
of 0-15%
SevereSustained revenue loss
of 15-50%
CatastrophicSustained revenue loss
of over 50%
SPECIFIC IMPACT ON THE ORGANIZATION
0.5 yearsV-curve rebound.
Effective pandemic economic response
1.5 yearsU-curve recovery.
Pandemic prolongs; economy recovers
3 yearsL-curve recovery.
Pandemic spreads; economy struggles
Survive and prepare for
back to normal
recovery
SEV
ER
ITY
AN
D D
UR
ATI
ON
OF
EC
ON
OM
IC I
MP
AC
T
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
In Danger
PositiveRevenue growth due
to demand surge
Mildly NegativeSustained revenue loss
of 0-15%
SevereSustained revenue loss
of 15-50%
CatastrophicSustained revenue loss
of over 50%
SPECIFIC IMPACT ON THE ORGANIZATION
0.5 yearsV-curve rebound.
Effective pandemic economic response
1.5 yearsU-curve recovery.
Pandemic prolongs; economy recovers
3 yearsL-curve recovery.
Pandemic spreads; economy struggles
Look for alternative
growth paths
SEV
ER
ITY
AN
D D
UR
ATI
ON
OF
EC
ON
OM
IC I
MP
AC
T
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Maintain
vigilance
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
See sooner
Act faster
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
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“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
see sooner
• Don’t be caught by surprise
• Plan and prepare for action
• Don’t be wrong-footed
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
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“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
act faster
• Execute our plan
• Separate ourselves from
the rest
• Seek to acquire first
mover advantage
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Spot and manage
weak signals
!
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Faint signals with
lots of noiseEmergence of a
validated modelCritical mass
adopts disruptionAt scale and
mature
Detectable Clearer Inevitable New Normal
Innovators and Early
Adopters
Early Majority Late Majority Laggards
Four phases of disruption
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Time
Sig
na
l Str
en
gth
Threshold at which
mainstream
become aware
Weak SignalZone of highest
opportunity and
greatest risk
Zone of diminishing
returns
Importance of weak early warning signals
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Spotting & managing early signals enhances performance
Innovators and Early
AdoptersEarly Majority Late Majority Laggards
Increasing revenue and
profitability
Falling revenue and low
profitability/losses
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Scan for weak
signalsMake sense
Probe and
act
Actively unearth weak signals
Amplify interesting weak signals
Probe further and clarify
• Tap local
intelligence
• Leverage extended
networks
• Mobilize search
parties
• Test multiple
hypotheses
• Consult widely but
quickly
• Develop diverse
scenarios
• Face reality
• Encourage
constructive
debate
• Trust seasoned
intuition
How we spot and
manage weak signals
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
DESCRIPTIVE
What happened
DIAGNOSTIC
Why it happened
PREDICTIVE
What will happen
PRESCRIPTIVE
What should be done
Scan for weak signals
Make sense Probe and act
How we communicate weak
signals to the organization
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Achieve
viability
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
ThriveReviveSurvive
During the crisis Emerging from
the crisis
After the crisis
Resilience Agility Innovation
Three states of viability
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
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“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
3
1
4
2
Find new
clients/market
Keep existing
clients/market
Keep existing
offering
Find new
offering
Today
Future business
Four zones
of viability
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
3
1
4
2
Find new clients/market
Keep existing
clients/market
Keep existing offering
Find new offering
e.g. improved
logistics process
e.g. alternative
branding
e.g. switch from
B2B to B2C
e.g. to a similar but
digital remote/service
e.g. create new product
for another need of your
existing client
White space
Innovate in the
core organization
Explore adjacent
opportunity spaces
Innovate in the
core organization
Seize white space
opportunities
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
In Danger
PositiveRevenue growth due
to demand surge
Mildly NegativeSustained revenue loss
of 0-15%
SevereSustained revenue loss
of 15-50%
CatastrophicSustained revenue loss
of over 50%
SPECIFIC IMPACT ON THE ORGANIZATION
0.5 yearsV-curve rebound.
Effective pandemic economic response
1.5 yearsU-curve recovery.
Pandemic prolongs; economy recovers
3 yearsL-curve recovery.
Pandemic spreads; economy struggles
Look for alternative
growth paths
SEV
ER
ITY
AN
D D
UR
ATI
ON
OF
EC
ON
OM
IC I
MP
AC
T
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Seizing white space
opportunities
A B C+ +
Reposition today’s
business to maximize its resilience
Create tomorrow’s
growth engineUse unique skills and
resources that give
you an advantage
(Transformation A) (Transformation B) (Capabilities Link)
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
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“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
A BCReposition
Today
Create
tomorrow
Use Unique Assets
Seizing white space
opportunities
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Take practical steps
toward resilience
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Resilience is about springing back
from a crisis and springing forward
to a new reality
!
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
12
3
4
56
7
8
Financing and
liquidity
Supply chain
resilience
Workforce
well-being
Technology investment
Board
management
Scenario
planning
Risk
management
Operational
improvements
Eight Practical
Steps to
Resilience
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Financing and
liquidity
Determine
cash profile
Model cash
flowShore up debt
Work with
current
financing
partners
Diversify
financing
sources
Manage
inventory
closely
Consider
additional
cost cutting
Manage
receivables
Liquidity and cash flow are paramount. We
should identify financial constraints that could
endanger our viability and consider alternatives
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Supply chain
resilience
Map supply
chain shocks
Identify
critical
bottlenecks
Prepare for
long term
supplier
disruption
Create
possible
scenarios
Address the
possibility of
shortages
Locate
backup
suppliers
Explore
alternative
operations
Evaluate
current
contracts
We should increase flexibility due to the many
rising costs across the supply chain, from
accessing raw materials to confronting
significant fluctuations in demand.
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Workforce
well-being
Support
virtualization
Minimize
worker
exposure
Track well-
being
Identify
minimum
staffing
requirements
Secure critical
IT funding and
support
Train staff in
new work
processes
Rethink
authority for
decision-
making
Maintain
open comms
Staff might not be used to working remotely but there
may not be a choice. We can use technology platforms
to create virtual workplaces to maintain collaboration.
We can use this crisis to re-imagine talent strategy
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Technology
investment
Create
dedicated
budgets for
tech needs
Shift to the
cloud
Create
dashboard to
track virtual
tool usage
Secure
business
critical
applications
Evaluate
whether
operations
can be
virtualized
Prepare for IT
supply chain
disruption
Bolster cyber
protections
Provide virtual
employees
with support
We may need to improve digital
capabilities, including cyber security,
to enable virtualization and prepare
for future transformation.
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Board
management
Set up crisis
command
centre
Facilitate
information
flow
Streamline
management
reporting to
the board
Devise
internal
comms
strategy
Communicate closely with key external stakeholders
Present
opportunities
for growth
Leverage
technology
Communicate with external
auditors
Senior leaders should communicate to
the board and its committee about how
the we are managing the disruption.
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Scenario
planning
Weigh
multiple
futures
Monitor
events
Maintain
strategic
optionality
Fund the most
probable
version of the
future
Prepare for
reshaped
competitive
landscape
Recognize
sector
reorganization
Prepare for
the next
normal
Anticipate
round two
Planning for different economic, health
and big picture scenarios may determine
how well we recover from the disruption.
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Risk
management
Be attentive
to internal
controls and
fraud
Monitor
failures of
suppliers and
customers
Guard against
cyber attacks
Monitor
effectiveness
of policy
interventions
Beware of
cascading
risks
Watch for
insider threats
Prepare for
the
unexpected
During a vulnerable time, we should keep a
sharp eye on managing direct and indirect
risks and on protecting our assets
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Operational
improvements
Reduce
enterprise
costs
Re-evaluate
outsourcing
Rethink real
estate
agreements
Rationalize
and diversify
procurement
Improve
pricing
discipline
Rethink the
portfolio of
assets
Fund selective
innovation
Beyond virtualization, we must consider what
we may need to change in how we operate
and what opportunities we can seize now
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
A cautionary tale
about resilience
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Choluteca River Bridge
(Honduras)
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Where we build resilience is
just as important as why and
how we build resilience
!
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Final Words
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll BryantImpact of
Disruption
Framing responses
to disruption
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
Crises destroy bad companies.
Good companies survive them.
Great companies are improved
by them.
Andy GroveFormer CEO, Intel
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Some people make things happen.
Some people watch things happen.
And then there are those who wonder
“what the hell just happened
Carroll Bryant
To learn more about building
business resilience through
mastering disruption enrol on
my e-learning course on:
https://courses.prof-
courses.com/p/disruption-course
Noel Tagoe & CompanyAdvisory|Research|Training
Thank you
www.noeltagoe.com
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