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Managing within the big picture

acting on the trends that matter

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MACRO-TRENDS: the Big Picture

Time

ContinuousChange

DiscontinuousChange

New ContinuousChange

Old TechnologiesOld Socio-Institutional

Paradigms

New TechnologiesNew Socio-Institutional

Paradigms

InstitutionalInertia

EntrepreneurshipNew Opportunities

adapted from Mike Hollinshead

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EMERGING PARADIGMS

Shifting FROM Shifting TOWARDS

industrial values person-centered values

petroleum economy

industrial economy

metal and plastics

machineschemicals/pharmaceuticals

mass demand/production

western economies dominate

hydrogen economy

information economy (smart processes)

polymers, ceramics, composites

nanotechnologybiotechnology and genetic engineering

segmented demand/customized production

emerging economies dominate

local communication

Independent computer assisted devices

separation/independence of

microelectronics and telecommunications

programmed computers

virtual global village

integratedsmartsystems

convergence of information,

communication & entertainment technologies

artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems

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BELIEFS, VALUES, ATTITUDES and BEHAVIOURS

Moving Away FROM Moving TOWARDS

Sacrifice of self

Independence

Consumerism

Local Perspectives

Anthropocentrism

JudgementalResponsive/Rigid

Adverse to Risk

Resisting Change

Celebration of Self

Interdependence

Quality of Life

Global Perspectives

Environmental Stewardship

Perceptive

Adaptive/Flexible

Calculated Risk Taking

Embracing Change

Government Orientation

Government OrientationDay to Day Life

Day to Day Life

Business Orientation

Business Orientation

CHANGING

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Managing fromthe middle

CommunityRecreation

MunicipalRecreation

ProvincialRecreation

Politicians

Publics/Stakeholders

TraditionalParadigm

industrial

holding on toold materialsand processes

limited

communicationresistingchange

EmergingParadigm

sustainable,

person centered

new economy

informed andinteractive

embracingchange

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KEY QUESTIONS

Is Canadian Society really transitioning from left toright columns?

Do you personally welcome the transitions

described?

Is leisure the low risk opportunity to try out andmodel new values and behaviours?

Does your agency understand the transitionsdescribed? Is it committed to afacilitation/leadership role?

Is there enough critical mass in the right columnsthat you as a leisure service manager feel confidentin leading accordingly?

Or, do you simply feel caught in the middle ofopposing camps unable to please everybody?

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Key Question Key Strategy

Question

Should the recreation and parks field strategically adopt

and facilitate emerging post-industrial values?person centred interdependence/community quality of life

- green/sustainable - global

NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES

Strategy

Work with your community/stakeholders to clarify the valuesthat will guide your services; brand your organization accordingly;

conduct your own value performance audit.

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www.foresight-trendscan.blogspot.com