Manpower Employment

Outlook Survey Q3 2013

UK Headline Data

Manpower

MEOS Q3 2013 Summary

• The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS) for the third quarter of 2013 is based on responses from 2,101 UK employers and asks whether they intend to increase or reduce the size of their workforce in the coming economic quarter

• The national Net Employment Outlook (NEO) has fallen marginally to +5% from +6% over the last two quarters, but still remains firmly in positive territory

– This is equal with the mean quarterly Outlook over the last year – compared with a mean quarterly Outlook of +1% in the 12 months prior

• In terms of the raw data, 9% of employers are looking to hire in Q3, with 3% looking to reduce head count and 82% to retain the same staffing levels

• Hiring intentions in London reach their highest level in five years and now stand at +13%

• There are signs that Construction is digging its way out of trouble. The sector rose to -4%, having been as low as -13% six months ago

• Finance and Business services hit a 15-month high to reach +14%.

Manpower

MEOS: The last five years

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

5

-1

-3

-6-5

-1

1 1 1 12 2

3

10

2 2

4

6 65

National NEO

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008

Manpower

• Companies of all sizes show positive hiring intentions for Q3• Medium companies (50 to 249 staff) are most optimistic once again, on +15%• Medium sized firms are often considered the engines of employment growth• Micro firms remain cautious – smaller workforce means less elastic workforce

and higher associated risks

Company size breakdown

Large

Medium

Small

Micro

National

12

15

10

1

6

13

15

8

2

5

3Q 2Q

-1

+1

-2

n/c

+1

QoQ change

Manpower

Sector breakdown

-9

-2

2

6

4

5

9

12

13

6

-4

-1

1

4

5

5

6

9

14

5

3Q 2Q

QoQ change

National

Finance & Business Services

Transport & Comms

Utilities

Community & Social

Manufacturing

Mining

Hotels & Retail

Agriculture

Construction

-1

+1

-3

-3

0

+1

-2

-1

+1

+5

Manpower

• Hiring intentions are at the same level across Public and Private sectors: +6%• Public sector hiring falls marginally from +7% to +6% QoQ• Optimism among not-for-profits increases by nine percentage points, from

+4% to +13%

Public/Private sector breakdown*

Not for profit

Public sector

Private sector

National

4

7

6

6

13

6

6

5

3Q 2Q

-1

n/c

-1

+9

QoQ change

*Data not seasonally adjusted

Manpower

Public/Private sector breakdown*

2011 2012 2013

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

5

3

-2

3

5 5 5 6 6

-2-2

-6-6

00

-3

76

Public sector

Private sector

*Data is not seasonally adjusted

Manpower

• London and the East - The most optimistic regions this quarter, with London recording its highest level of optimism for more than five years. The capital is up 12 percentage points year-on-year

• South East and South West - Levels of optimism in both regions fall from last quarter, but the regions remain firmly in positive territory. The South East has an Outlook of +6%, while the South West now stands at +9%

• East Midlands and West Midlands - Employers continue to be positive about hiring at +5% and +8%, respectively

• North West and North East - Optimism increased four percentage points on the quarter in the North West, with employers in the region predicting a return to marginally positive territory in Q3. The North East is down one percentage point to -2%

• Yorkshire and Humberside - Rose two percentage points to +5%. The region is up eight percentage points year-on-year

• Northern Ireland and Scotland - Look set to struggle: the Outlook in Northern Ireland improves by four percentage points but this takes it only to a flat Outlook of 0%, while Scotland’s Outlook dropped from +5% last quarter to +1% this time around

• Wales - The surprise package this quarter, jumping from +1% to +10%.

Regional summary

Manpower

Regional breakdown

-1

-4

5

-2

5

3

10

8

12

1

11

8

6

-2

0

1

2

5

5

6

8

9

10

13

13

5

QoQ change

Total

London

East

Wales

South West

West Midlands

South East

Yorks & Humb

East Midlands

North West

Scotland

N. Ireland

North East

-1

+5

+2

+9

-3

n/c

-4

+2

n/c

+4

-4

+4

-1

Manpower

UK employment intention heat map

+13

For more insights on the world of work visit: manpower.co.uk/meos