MANPOWER PLANNING AND ORGANIZATION DESIGN

NATO CONFERENCE SERIES

Ecology II Systems Science III Human Factors IV Marine Sciences V Air-Sea Interactions VI Materials Science

II SYSTEMS SCIENCE

Volume 1 Transportation Planning for a Better Environment Edited by Peter Stringer and H. Wenzel

Volume 2 Arctic Systems Edited by P. J. Amaria, A. A. Bruneau, and P. A. Lapp

Volume 3 Environmental Assessment of Socioeconomic Systems Edited by Dietrich F. Burkhardt and William H. Ittelson

Volume 4 Earth Observation Systems for Resource Management and Environmental Control Edited by Donald J. Clough and Lawrence W. Morley

Volume 5 Applied General Systems Research: Recent Developments and Trends

Edited by George J. Klir

Volume 6 Evaluating New Telecommunications Services Edited by Martin C.J. Elton, William A. Lucas, and

David W. Conrath

Volume 7 Manpower Planning and Organization Design Edited by Donald T. Bryant and Richard J. Niehaus

MANPOWER PLANNING AND ORGANIZATION DESIGN

Edited by

Donald T. Bryant Tavistock Institute of Human Relations London

and

Richard J. Niehaus u.s. Navy Office of Civilian Personnel Washington, D. C.

Published in coordination with NATO Scientific Affairs Division by

PLENUM PRESS· NEW YORK AND LONDON

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

NATO Conference on Manpower Planning and Organization Design, Stresa, ItaIY,1977. Manpower planning. and organization design.

(NATO conference series: II, Systems science; 7) "Proceedings of the NATO Conference on Manpower Planning and Organiza­

tion Design held at Stresa, Italy, June 20-24, 1977, sponsored by the NATO Special Program Panels on Human Factors and on Systems Science."

1. Manpower planning-Congresses. I. Bryant, Donald, T. II. Niehaus, Richard J. III. NATO Special Program Panel on Human Factors. IV. NATO Special Program Panel on Systems Science. V. Title. VI. Series. HF5549.5.M3N21977 658.3 784623 ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-4624-1 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-4622-7 001: 10.1007/978-1-4613-4622-7

Proceedings of the NATO Conference on Manpower Planning and Organization Design held at Stresa, Italy, June 20-24, 1977, sponsored by the NATO Special. Program Panels on Human Factors and Systems Science

© 1978 Plenum Press, New York Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1978 A Division of Plenum Publishing Corporation 227 West 17th Street, New York, N.Y. 10011

All rights reserved

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher

PREFACE

This volume is the proceedings of the conference entitled "Manpower Planning and Organization Design" which was held in Stresa, Italy, 20-24 June 1977.

The Conference was sponsored by the NATO Scientific Affairs Division and organized jointly through the Special Programs Panels on Human Factors and on Systems Science. Two Conference Directors were appointed with overall responsibilities for the programme and for policy, and they were assisted in their tasks by a small advisory panel consisting of Professor A. Charnes (University of Texas), Professor W.W. Cooper (Carnegie Mellon University, now at Harvard University) and Dr. F.A. Heller (TavistQck Institute of Human Relations). Professor R. Florio of Bergamo kindly agreed to become Administrative Director and, as such, was responsible for all the local arrangements.

The Conference Directors were further assisted by "national points of contact" appointed from each of the member countries of NATO. These national representatives played a substantial part in the search for participants and in the collection and trans­mission of the various conference communications. Although full details of the national points of contact are included in the Appendices, special tribute must be paid to the UK point of contact, Brian Smith of the Civil Service Department. He very capably shouldered the additional burdens of maintaining conti­nuity and resolving problems during the absence in Canada of Don Bryant in the particularly demanding two months preceding the Conference.

By the time when the selection of papers to be included in the Conference had to be made, over fifty acceptable abstracts had been received. This presented the Conference Directors with the problem of deciding which out of so many potentiall worth-

v

PREFACE

while papers should be eliminated in order to produce a manageable programme. Eventually the difficulty was resolved by including all the papers with acceptable abstracts and by allocating to one or other of two types of presentation: main plenary sessions for papers that appeared to fit in with one of the eight Conference themes; and parallel presentations of special interest topics (Paper Fair). In the event, thirty-nine papers were presented in the main plenary sessions and thirteen in the Paper Fair. In addition, two authors intending to present papers (Athanassiou of Greece and Joynt of Norway) were prevented by unavoidable circum­stances from attending the Conference; their papers were however made available to participants, and consequently the Editors decided to include both of these papers in the published proceedings.

The proceedings follow the Conference programme to some ex­tent, but it will be seen there are now ten sections instead of eight sessions and a paper fair. The order of some individual papers has been changed in order to produce a balanced publication geared towards the requirements of the general reader. The pro­ceedings then consist of ten sections which themselves consist of three to. six papers grouped together under a particular theme. The contents pages, list all section themes, papers and authors for the entire proceedings.

The original session themes for the Conference itself are listed below, together with the session chairmen:

Session Theme Chairmen

I Organization Design and Career Management RC Sorenson(US) Models.

2 Practical Experiences with Manpower J Picard(France) Planning Systems.

3 Interactive Computer-assisted Manpower NO Heyer (US) Management.

4 Organization Design in Workforce Planning.G Mensch (West Germany)

5 Planning for Equal Employment Opportu- ffi~ Cooper (US) nities.

6 Manpower Planning as a General WW Cooper (US) Organizational System.

7 Macro-Implications of Micro Manpower G Alpay (Turkey) Planning.

8 Aspects of Organizational Systems. GD Kaye (US) 9 Behavioral and Management Science Methods. W. Price(Canada)

(Paper Fair) (Co-ordinator)

PREFACE vn

The Conference Directors would like to express their graditude to these session chairmen and the paper fair co-ordinator for their efforts in ensuring that the events were smoothly organized.

Thanks are also due to a number of other people who helped to make the meeting a success: in particular to the staff and management of the hotel group in Stresa, and of the Palazzo dei Congressi where the Conference was held; and to the Mayor and City of Stresa for their generous contribution to the entertain­ment provided by the folk dancers at the Gala Dinner. Social events are often important ingredients that go into the making of a successful conference, and we were indeed fortunate in having the Spouses' Programme directed by Mrs. Mary Regina Niehaus.

Secretarial services were provided by Mrs. Ruth Combs of the U.S. Navy Office of Civilian Personnel and by Mrs. Jean Goodes of the Travistock Institute. Mrs. Ursula Granville of the Tavistock Institute was responsible for much of the administra­tive as well as of the secretarial arrangements in the U.K. David Sholtz of the U.S. Navy Office of Civilian Personnel gave considerable help to the Conference Directors in the U.S., together with Kathy Lewis of Columbia University who also proved to be not only an exceptional 'behind the scenes' organizer in the pre-planning and planning phases of the Conference, but also a competent problem-solver 'on-the-spot' during the Conference week itself.

Fianlly, we would be remiss if we did not acknowledge the role of the NATO Scientific Affairs Division in taking the initiative in launching this Conference. We owe a special debt to Dr. B.A. Bayraktar who provided much valuable counsel and advice during the early stages of the Conference preparations.

Don Bryant

Richard J. Niehaus

CONTENTS

Introductory Statement. • • • • D. Bryant and R. J. Niehaus

SECTION 1: Organization Design and Career Management

Models for Organization Design and Staffing E. S. Bres, F. Leader, B. E. Moore and D. Sholtz

Manpower Planning for the Managerial Workforce: A Quantitative and Qualitative Approach

C. Plougonven

The Creation of a System of Personnel Management Forecasting: Technology or Sociology? •

P. Miret

A Methodological Review of the Treatment of Individual Goals in Some Recent German System Approaches Towards Manpower Planning

J. Gohl and H. J. Oppelland

An Optimal Retirement Policy for Individuals D. Sadowski

SECTION 2: Conversational Computer-Assisted Manpower Management • • • • •

Conversational Manpower Planning Models in a Telecommunications Environment

R. J. Niehaus

MANPLAN: A Flexible C~mputer Package for Practical

1

13

15

31

45

57

73

83

85

Manpower Planning • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• 103 J. Nash and A. Goddard

ix

x

Bargaining Assignment and Officer Rotation Models in the U.S. Navy •••••

T. I. Eubanks and G. L. Thompson

Developing a Research-Based System for Manpower Management and Career Progression in the U. S. Army Officer Corps ••••••

B. H. Cory, F. F. Medland and J. E. Uhlaner

A Computer Assisted Manpower Planning Model • • R. C. Dudding and W. G. Piskor

SECTION 3: Organization Design in Workforce Planning

An Action Research Approach to Organisation Design D. Bryant and B. Painter

CONTENTS

119

131

145

155

157

Organization Design in the Smaller Enterprise • • • • • • •• 173 B. Barry

The Place of Value Orientation of Members in Organizational Design • • • • •

M. Gurkaynak and K. Sayba~ili

Manpower Planning on the Halifax Waterfront: A Case Study with Implications for Industrial Relations ••••• • •

J. A. Dougall

. . . , . . . .

Matrix Organization in an Industrializing Society: Case Studies from Brazil •• • • • • •

J. R. Hemsley, R. Sbragia and E. Vasconcellos

Importance of Individual Differences in Intervention and Design for Improving Quality of Working Life • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

M. Boisvert and R. Theriault

SECTION 4: Descriptive Models of Organizations

The Integration of Human Resources Planning into the Budgetary Cycle of the Canadian Federal Public Service • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

R. C. Dudding and R. L. Marsh

Possibilities for Career Management in a Subordinate Organisation

G. D. Kaye

187

197

209

223

241

243

259

CONTENTS xi

Organisational Dichotomies: The Dilemma of Management • • •• 271 R. Pemble

Planning for Manpower Needs and Organization Development • • • • • • •

G. A1pay

SECTION 5: Mathematical Methods for Manpower Systems

A Normative Model for Manpower Planning Under Risk •••••••••

A. Martel and W. L. Price

283

289

291

Interactive Design of a Manpower System • • • • • • • • • •• 307 R. C. Grino1d

Efficient Computation and Long Range Optimization Applications Using a Two-Characteristic Markov-Type Manpower Flow Model • • • •

K. T. Marshall

Two Linear Programming Models of a Large German Federal Department • •• • • • •

G. Uebe, M. J. Beckmann, J. Fischer and E. Marwitz

Manpower Planning Under Stochastic Turnover Behavior K. Uyar and C. K. Uyar

Forecasting and Recruitment in Graded Manpower Systems • • • •

J. A. E. E. van Nunen and J. Wessels

SECTION 6: Planning for Equal Employment Opportunities

Equal Employment Opportunity Planning and Staffing Models • • • • • • • •

A. Charnes, W. W. Cooper, K. A. Lewis and R. J. Niehaus

Planning Manpower Utilization in a Bi-Cu1tura1 Environment

J. E. Mayhood, C. A. U. Cotton and W. L. Price

On the Racial Composition of Workers Available to an Organization • • • • • • • • •

S. Haber

319

331

341

353

365

367

383

395

xii

SECTION 7: Economic and Demographic Implications of Manpower Planning • • • • • •

Intertempora1 Eco-Demographic Interactions and Their Manpower Planning Implications

A. P. Schinnar

Personnel Transfer in the Public/Private

CONTENTS

409

411

Research and Development (R&D) Sector • • • • • •• 427 G. Mensch

The Demand for Qualified Manpower: Some Implications for Macroeconomic Planning • • • • •• 433

R. Pearson

Some Economic-Demographic Interactions Affecting Female Manpower Supply: The Greek Experience 445

S. K. Athanassiou

Institutional Considerations for Macro Manpower Planning in Less Developed Countries

B. J. Bhatt and V. Mahajan

Manpower Planning for Industrial Projects in Libya ••

M. M. Aswed and M. H. E1wany

Engineering Education and Manpower Needs of Developing Countries ••••••

M. A. K. Malik

SECTION 8: Practical Experiences with Manpower Planning

461

475

485

Systems • • • • . • • . • • • . • • . • 497

Organizational/Systems Opportunities in the Operational Use of a Personnel Planning Model • •• 499

J. Silverman

Manpower Planning as a Basis for Current Changes in Periods of Engagement in the Canadian Forces

1. P. Sherlock

Local Government Manpower Planning: Theory in Practice P. E. Judkins, J. A. Dawson, P. L. Davies, N. J. Sutcliffe, D. A. Surgey and C. A. Rowswell

513

529

CONTENTS

Re-Eva1uating Company Manpower Planning in the Light of Some Practical Experiences •

R. J. Casson

An Integrated Assignment and Training Control System of the Army (IVAS) • • • • •

P. Bauhardt

On the Application of Analytical Models in Personnel Planning in the Bundeswehr

G. A. Zolzer

xiii

545

561

573

Selecting the Most Appropriate Manpower Model • • • • • • •• 587 J. Draper and J. R. Merchant

SECTION 9: Issues in Selection, Performance and Occupational Choice •••..•.•••. • . . . • .• 603

The Identification of Management Potential: A Contingency Approach •• • • •

V. Stanic

An Objective Approach to the Development of Job Classification Schemes

V. Du1ewicz and G. Keenay

The Characteristics of Naval Personnel and Personnel Performance

S. A. Horowitz and A. Sherman

Implications of a Country Work Force's Perceptions of Occupations on Work Force Mix and Macro Manpower Plans • • • • • • • • •

A. K. Jain, V. Mahajan and B. T. Ratchford

Contingency Analysis: With an Emphasis on Organization Satisfaction • • •

P. Joynt

SECTION 10: Quantitative Methods and Studies for Manpower

605

621

637

653

667

Planning .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 681

An Interactive Manpower Planning and Scheduling System for a Health Facility •• • •

E. N. West 683

xiv

The Cost-Effectiveness of Various Fringe Benefits to U. S. Navy Personnel

R. C. Morey and A. P. La1chandani

VACATE: A Model for Personnel Inventory Planning Under Changing Management Policy

P. H. Sto1off and S. J. Ba1ut

An Initial Investigation into the Suitability of Absenteeism Rates as Measures of Performance

F. Dansereau, Jr., J. A. A1utto and S. Markham

An Evaluation of Navy Unrestricted Line Officer Accession Programs •••••••••

S. D. Kleinman

CONTENTS

691

707

721

733

An Industry Framework for Company Manpower Planning • • • •• 749 A. Moss

Appendix I: National Points of Contact . . . 767

Appendix II: List of Participants 769

Index • • • • • • 779