+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Date post: 04-Jan-2016
Category:
Upload: garrison-meadows
View: 33 times
Download: 3 times
Share this document with a friend
Description:
Manville Filings By Selected Industry. ARPC 2001. ARPC 2001. ARPC 2001. FUTURE CLAIMS FORECASTING BASED ON MEDICAL MODELS MAY BE MISLEADING. History of the Manville Personal Injury Settlement Trust Future Claims Forecasting Employing Medical Models. Year of Forecast. Forecast 2002-2049. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Popular Tags:
32
Asbestos-R elated Bankruptcies Year Com pany 1982 U N R Industries,Inc. Johns-M anville C o. Am atex C orp. 1983 W aterm an S team ship 1984 W allace & G ale C o. 1985Forty-EightInsulations,Corp PACOR P rudentialLines,Inc. 1986 S tandard Insulations,Inc. U.S .Lines 1987Nicolet,Inc. G atke C orp. Todd S hipyards 1988 C hem etron Corp 1989 Raytech (R aym ark) D elaw are Insulations 1990 S tandard A sbestos M fg.& Insul 1991Eagle-Picher H.K .P orterC o. 1992 CassiarMines K entile Floors 1993 K eene C orp. Am erican S hipbuilding,Inc. 1995 Lykes B rothers S team ship 1996 R ock W oolMfg. 1998 SG L C arbon M .H.D etrick B runsw ick Fabricators Fuller-A ustin Insul. 1999 Joy Technologies R utland Fire & C lay 2000 B abcock & W ilcox P ittsburgh C orning B urns & R oe E nterprises E.J.B artells O w ens Corning Arm strong W orld Industries 2001 G -1 H oldings (G A F C orp) W .R.Grace S kinnerE ngine C o USG (U S G ypsum )C orp. FederalM ogul E astco IndustrialS afety W ashington G roup Int’l,Inc. Bethlehem Steel 2002 North A m erican R efractories KaiserAluminum P librico R efractories P orter-H ayden Am erican C lub H uxley D evelopm entC orp Harbison-WalkerRefractories C ontinentalP roducers C o. A.P .G reen Indus. S hook & Fletcher A tra G roup,Inc.(S yncoloid)
Transcript
Page 1: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Asbestos-Related Bankruptcies

Year Company

1982 UNR Industries, Inc. Johns-Manville Co. Amatex Corp.

1983 Waterman Steamship 1984 Wallace & Gale Co. 1985 Forty-Eight Insulations, Corp

PACORPrudential Lines, Inc.

1986 Standard Insulations, Inc.U.S. Lines

1987 Nicolet, Inc.Gatke Corp.Todd Shipyards

1988 Chemetron Corp 1989 Raytech (Raymark)

Delaware Insulations1990 Standard Asbestos Mfg. & Insul1991 Eagle-Picher

H.K. Porter Co.1992 Cassiar Mines

Kentile Floors1993 Keene Corp.

American Shipbuilding, Inc.1995 Lykes Brothers Steamship1996 Rock Wool Mfg.1998 SGL Carbon

M.H. DetrickBrunswick FabricatorsFuller-Austin Insul.

1999 Joy TechnologiesRutland Fire & Clay

2000 Babcock & WilcoxPittsburgh CorningBurns & Roe EnterprisesE.J. BartellsOwens CorningArmstrong World Industries

2001 G-1 Holdings (GAF Corp)W.R. GraceSkinner Engine CoUSG (US Gypsum) Corp.Federal MogulEastco Industrial SafetyWashington Group Int’l, Inc.Bethlehem Steel

2002 North American RefractoriesKaiser AluminumPlibrico RefractoriesPorter-HaydenAmerican ClubHuxley Development CorpHarbison-Walker RefractoriesContinental Producers Co.A.P. Green Indus.Shook & Fletcher Atra Group, Inc. (Syncoloid)

Page 2: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Manville TrustTDP Liquidations Average

02/10/02 Payments Liquidated AverageCategory Scheduled Disease # Resolved Millions $ Value Payment

7 Malignant Mesothelioma 17,644 4% $356 21% $205,807 $20,1806 Lung Cancer (Two) 25,017 6% $225 13% $92,111 $9,0025 Lung Cancer (One) 3,687 1% $22 1% $61,308 $6,018

Subtotal - Lung Cancers 28,704 7% $247 15% $8,605

4 Other Cancer 5,712 1% $22 1% $40,818 $3,930Subtotal - All Cancers 52,060 12% $625 37% $12,005

3 Disabling Bilateral Interstitial Lung Disease 137,614 33% $617 37% $50,439 $4,4842 Nondisabling Bilateral Interstitial Lung Disease 146,556 35% $341 20% $25,190 $2,3311 Bilateral Pleural Disease 82,809 20% $95 6% $12,137 $1,1540 Other* 941 0% $4 0% $40,332 $4,083

Subtotal - All Non Malignancies 367,920 88% $1,057 63% $2,873

Total 419,980 $1,682 $43,073 $4,005

NOTE: The number of Category I, II and III claims and the amounts paid include previously disqualified claims resubmitted by the Maritime Asbestosis Legal Clinic, and also include the small number of claims for which the value was derived from Individual Evaluation or arbitration following Individual Evaluation.

* Includes some cancers.

Page 3: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Manville Trust Remaining Assets & Claims Liabilities Estimated

Market Value (Millions)

Remaining Assets 1/31/2002Equities $973 49%Fixed Income $736 37%Cash $273 14%Total Assets Remaining $1,982 100%

Claim Liabilities * # Claims Amt PaidResolved 448,723 $2.739 billion paidDisqualified 700Deactivated (Expired offer and denials) 43,264 33,779 of which were denied

Outstanding Dollar Offers 20,680Denials & Work-in-process 21,996Subtotal Active 42,676Total Claims (11/30/01) * 524,421 (Exclusive of unregistered claims)

*Excludes voided, co-defendant and distributor claims and cases liquidated by JM, but paid by the trust

NOTE: There was a voluntary claim filing moratorium from 9/1/01 to 10/15/01.

Page 4: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

60686068

58105860

5805

5693

5500

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

8/99-7/01 9/99-8/01 10/99-9/01 11/99-10/01 12/99-11/01 1/00 -12/01

Chart 2: POC ReceiptsRolling Two Year Average

Page 5: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Manville TrustInjury by Year Filed with the Trust

Filed Mesothelioma Lung Cancer

Other Cancer Asbestosis Pleurals Subtotal

(Denied) or Unknown Total Malignancies

Non-Malignancies

1988 1,509 2,885 820 20,862 5,749 31,825 648 32,473 16.4% 83.6%1989 4,783 9,334 1,892 49,722 26,261 91,992 8,205 100,197 17.4% 82.6%1990 1,543 1,680 256 6,934 4,808 15,221 6,320 21,541 22.9% 77.1%1991 842 1,437 281 7,836 3,757 14,153 1,156 15,309 18.1% 81.9%1992 745 1,356 278 9,003 3,015 14,397 1,350 15,747 16.5% 83.5%1993 499 763 165 8,465 3,119 13,011 1,097 14,108 11.0% 89.0%1994 1,238 1,800 308 15,497 3,976 22,819 1,625 24,444 14.7% 85.3%1995 1,318 2,262 438 19,775 5,855 29,648 1,865 31,513 13.6% 86.4%1996 1,313 2,193 495 35,511 6,534 46,046 5,011 51,057 8.7% 91.3%1997 1,182 1,752 427 13,909 4,216 21,486 2,188 23,674 15.6% 84.4%1998 1,118 1,500 416 20,593 3,832 27,459 1,965 29,424 11.0% 89.0%1999 1,460 1,845 379 19,159 6,131 28,974 2,759 31,733 0.1% 87.3%2000 1,830 2,609 546 41,213 8,167 54,365 3,676 58,041 9.2% 90.8%

2001 1,674 2,303 581 53,732 10,322 68,612 20,826 * 89,438 6.6% 93.4%21,054 33,719 7,282 322,211 95,742 480,008 58,691 449,261 12.9% 87.1%3.90% 6.30% 1.40% 59.80% 17.80% 10.90% 100%4.40% 7.00% 1.50% 67.10% 19.90% 100%

* For 2001, total excludes refiled claims.

Page 6: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Evaluated TDP Claim FilingsPre

Last Category 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Total7 Mesothelioma 9,034 1,307 1,300 1,179 1,118 1,459 1,827 1,706 18,930 6 Lung Cancer (Two) 13,458 1,947 1,926 1,508 1,364 1,632 2,310 2,260 26,405 5 Lung Cancer (One) 2,375 297 236 219 125 206 268 224 3,950 4 Other Cancer 2,882 432 478 395 408 376 540 561 6,072

Cancer 27,749 3,983 3,940 3,301 3,015 3,673 4,945 4,751 55,357

3 Disabling Asbestosis 47,161 7,763 13,753 5,970 9,090 7,844 22,808 27,352 141,741 2 Nondisabling Asbestosis 50,342 11,977 21,701 7,915 11,497 11,301 18,194 24,183 157,110 1 Pleurals 45,843 5,858 6,524 4,211 3,833 6,129 8,187 10,473 91,058 0 Other 20,605 1,931 5,138 2,278 1,990 2,785 3,905 7,534 46,166

Non Malignancy 163,951 27,529 47,116 20,374 26,410 28,059 53,094 69,542 436,075

Total 191,700 31,512 51,056 23,675 29,425 31,732 58,039 74,293* 512,160

PreLast Category 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

7 Mesothelioma 5% 4% 3% 5% 4% 5% 3% 2% 4%6 Lung Cancer (Two) 7% 6% 4% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 5%5 Lung Cancer (One) 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%4 Other Cancer 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Cancer 14% 13% 8% 14% 10% 12% 9% 6% 11%

3 Disabling Asbestosis 25% 25% 27% 25% 31% 25% 39% 37% 28%2 Asbestosis 26% 38% 43% 33% 39% 36% 31% 33% 31%1 Pleurals 24% 19% 13% 18% 13% 19% 14% 14% 18%0 Other 11% 6% 10% 10% 7% 9% 7% 10% 9%

Non Malignancy 86% 87% 92% 86% 90% 88% 91% 94% 85%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

* Note - Excludes 20,797 claims not valued during 2001

Page 7: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Auto Manufacturing

Construction

Non-Asbestos ProductsManufacturing

Railroad

ShipyardConstruction/Repair

Textile

Utilities

Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Page 8: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Manville TrustNumber of Claims by Year Received and Industry

IndustryTraditional "Nicholson" Industries 1999 2000 2001* 99 to 00 00 to 01Primary & Sec. Asb. 249 578 736 132.1% 27.3%Insulators 582 609 1,162 4.6% 90.8%Railroad (Maint.) 1,547 5,369 8,700 247.1% 62.0%Utilities 1,496 2,203 3,686 47.2% 67.3%Chemical 3,177 4,972 8,786 56.5% 76.7%Marine 1,205 1,831 1,097 51.9% -40.1%Construction 5,181 7,746 12,367 49.5% 59.6%Auto Maintenance 358 2,618 6,208 631.9% 137.1%Shipyard 2,650 4,836 4,512 82.5% -6.7%WWII Shipyard 552 734 1,143 33.0% 55.7%

Subtotal 16,997 31,496 48,397 85.3% 53.7%New, Non-"Nicholson" IndustriesFood & Beverage 161 354 619 120.0% 75.1%Textiles 1,098 5,986 9,011 445.1% 50.5%Pulp & Paper 714 1,619 2,825 126.8% 74.5%Glass 145 310 544 113.6% 75.6%Iron, Steel and Nonferrous 5,789 8,935 16,590 54.3% 85.7%Durable (Metal) Goods 754 1,633 2,864 116.6% 75.4%All Others 2,759 4,745 8,000 72.0% 68.6%

Subtotal 11,420 23,582 40,453 106.5% 71.5%Grand Total 28,417 55,078 88,850 93.8% 61.3%

* Estimated, not through 11/30/01

Year Received by Trust Percent Change

ARPC 2001

Page 9: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Year of First Exposure by Industry

1944194619481950195219541956195819601962

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Filing Year

Yea

r o

f 1st

Exp

osu

re Shipyard

Non-Asbestos Mfg.

Textile

Automotible orMechanical

ARPC 2001

Page 10: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Year of First Exposure: Injury

194019421944194619481950195219541956195819601962

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Filing Year

Ave

rag

e Y

ear

of 1

st

Exp

osu

re

Mesothelioma

Lung Cancer

Other Cancer

Asbestosis

Pleural Pleural

ARPC 2001

Page 11: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Manville TrustPayments by Disease and Period

Allocation of Claim $ Payments

Claims Trust Distribution Process by Year SettledSettled Disease Pre TDP 1995-2000 2000-02/10/02 Total TDP Grand Total

19,248 Mesothelioma 24% 25% 14% 21% 22%31,286 Lung Cancer 17% 18% 9% 15% 16%

6,680 Other Cancer 3% 2% 1% 1% 2%57,214 Subtotal 44% 44% 24% 37% 40%

295,835 Asbestosis 49% 49% 72% 57% 54%84,684 Pleurals 7% 7% 4% 6% 6%

48 Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%437,781 Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Payments $MM $1,053 $1,108 $576 $1,684 $2,737

Page 12: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

TDP Claim Payments By Year

$0$50

$100$150$200$250$300$350

Pre1995

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Jan'01-Feb'02

Mil

lio

ns

of

Do

llar

s

Millions of $

Page 13: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Manville TrustIndustries

Mining and Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals, Except FuelsConstruction Special Trade Contractors Phase 1Transportation Equipment

Building Construction General Contractors and OperativePaper and Allied ProductsPetroleum Refining and Related IndustriesRubber and Miscellaneous Plastics ProductsPrimary Metal IndustriesRailroad TransportationWater TransportationElectric, Gas, and Sanitary Services

Food and Kindred ProductsTextile Mill Products Phase 3Stone, Clay, Glass, and Concrete Products

Metal MiningOil and Gas ExtractionHeavy Construction Other Than Building ConstructionTobacco ProductsPrinting, Publishing, and Allied IndustriesFabricated Metal Products, Except Machinery and TransportationIndustrial and Commercial Machinery and Computer Equipment Phase 4Electronic and Other Electrical Equipment and ComponentsMeasuring, Analyzing, and Controlling InstrumentsMiscellaneous Manufacturing IndustriesLocal and Suburban Transit and Interurban Highway PassengerPipelines, Except Natural GasAutomotive Dealers and Gasoline Service StationsAutomotive Repair, Services and Parking

Phase 2

Page 14: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

FUTURE CLAIMS FORECASTING BASED FUTURE CLAIMS FORECASTING BASED ON MEDICAL MODELS MAY BE ON MEDICAL MODELS MAY BE

MISLEADINGMISLEADINGHistory of the Manville Personal Injury Settlement Trust Future Claims Forecasting Employing Medical Models

Year of Forecast

1993

1995

1997

2000

2001

Forecast 2002-2049

48,600

266,000

333,500

441,000

1,420,000

% Error

108%

447%

25%

32%

222%

Page 15: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Manville TrustSummary of Forecasts Used in the Cash Flow Model

Meso: 100% of Nicholson; Lung: 23% of Nicholson

Not Appplicable Asbestosis: 1990 to 2001 Increasing Ratios Trended to 2049. Other Injuries: 2000-01 Ratios to Lung Cancer 2,684,719 8%

Nicholson 2000 Only Ratios to Lung Cancer (2000 Only) 1,615,386 13%Peto

2000 OnlyARPC "Traditional" Log-Log Claims-per-Year Regression 1,578,393 13%

Peto1998 To 2000

ARPC "Traditional" Log-Log Claims-per-Year Regression 1,417,851 17%

Nicholson1998 To 2000

Ratios to Lung Cancer (1998 To 2000 Totals) 1,289,759 17%

Peto1997 To 1999

ARPC "Traditional" Log-Log Claims-per-Year Regression 1,195,446 13%

Nicholson1997 To 1999

Ratios to Lung Cancer (1998 To 2000 Totals) 1,029,889 12%

Peto1996 To 1998

ARPC "Traditional" Log-Log Claims-per-Year Regression 747,726 7%

1,421,598Weighted Average

Mesothelioma and Lung Cancer

Calibration Period (Based on Diagnosis

Year)Other Cancers and Non-malignancies

Number of Claims (2001 to

2049)

Cash Flow Model

Selection Probability

ARPC 2001

Page 16: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Future Claim Projections By OthersFuture Claim Projections By Others Not Using Medical ModelsNot Using Medical Models

Milliman USA: pre

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2030

2035

-- 2000 -- 400,000

-- 2004 -- 270,000

-- 2009 -- 130,000

-- 2014 -- 110,000

-- 2019 -- 80,000

-- 2024 -- 30,000

-- 2034 -- 17,000

-- 2049 -- 12,000

1,049,000

Page 17: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Future Claim Projections By Others Future Claim Projections By Others Not Using Medical ModelsNot Using Medical Models

(continued)(continued)

pre

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2030

2035

-- 2000 -- 410,000

-- 2004 -- 225,000

-- 2009 -- 175,000

-- 2014 -- 110,000

-- 2019 -- 45,000

-- 2024 -- 20,000

-- 2034 -- 10,000

-- 2049 -- 5,000

Tillinghast – Towers Perrin:

~1,000,000

Page 18: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Milliman USA Estimates ofMilliman USA Estimates of Ultimate Loss and Expense Ultimate Loss and Expense

Due to U.S. Asbestos Exposure Due to U.S. Asbestos Exposure

Ultimate Paid of $275BUltimate Paid of $275B $50B Paid Through 2000$50B Paid Through 2000

$8B

$20B

$22B

$30B

$70B

$175B

U.S. Insurers

Uninsured Losses

Non-U.S. Insurers

Page 19: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Tillinghast – Towers Perrin Estimates ofTillinghast – Towers Perrin Estimates of Ultimate Loss and Expense Ultimate Loss and Expense

Due to U.S. Asbestos Exposure Due to U.S. Asbestos Exposure

Net Non-Net Non-U.S. U.S.

Insured Insured 31%31%

Net U.S. Net U.S. Insured Insured 30% *30% *

Retained Retained by by

Defendants Defendants 39%39%

$200 billion

Page 20: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Manville TrustPercentage Plan Trends

Eagle-Picher Manville Celotex UNRYear Pro-Rata Payment Pro-Rata Payment Pro-Rata Payment Pro-Rata Payment1988 1001989 1001990 1001991 *1992 *1993 * 17.21994 * 17.21995 10 18.61996 27.8 10 18.61997 27.8 10 12 18.61998 31.9 10 12 12.91999 31.9 10 12 12.92000 25.7 10 12 7.52001 15.5 5 10 7.5**

* For the years 1991 - 1994, there was essentially a stay on payments. ** UNR Trust is presently under a claim payment moratorium.

Claims Processing Facility 2001

Page 21: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

EstimatedMarket Value

(Millions)Remaining Assets 5/31/2002

Equities $988 51%Fixed Income $748 39%Cash $184 10%Total Assets Remaining $1,920 100%

Claim Liabilities * # Claims Amt PaidResolved 448,723 $2.815 billion paidDisqualified 700Deactivated (Expired offer and denials) 43,264 33,779 of which were denied

Outstanding Dollar Offers 20,680Denials & Work-in-process 43,206Subtotal Active 42,676Total Claims (11/30/01) * 545,631 (Exclusive of unregistered claims)

*Excludes voided, co-defendant and distributor claims and cases liquidated by JM, but paid by the trust

NOTE: There was a voluntary claim filing moratorium from 9/1/01 to 10/15/01, and a partial claim filing moratorium from 1/29/02 to 5/13/02.

Remaining Assets and Claims Remaining Assets and Claims LiabilitiesLiabilities

Page 22: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Transition Table – Alleged to ‘Final’ Injury CategoryTransition Table – Alleged to ‘Final’ Injury Category

Transition Matrix 1998-2000 Filings as of 3/31/02 (excludes voids).

Based on Last Category

1st Alleged Cat 0 Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 Cat 6 Cat 7 Total

Mesothelioma 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 97% 100%

Lung Cancer 5% 0% 1% 1% 0% 9% 82% 0% 100%

Other Cancer 6% 1% 3% 10% 79% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Asbestosis 2% 3% 47% 47% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Pleural 6% 80% 12% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

CAT 0/None 32% 7% 46% 12% 3% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Page 23: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

History of 1History of 1stst Exposures to JM Asbestos Products Exposures to JM Asbestos Products

Year Claim Filed

1ST Exposure 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Total

Pres 1976 99.3% 99.1% 97.9% 97.6% 96.4% 212,874

76 – 82 0.6% 0.7% 2.1% 2.2% 3.3% 4,716

Post 1982 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 461

Totals 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 218,051

23,510 29,171 31,058 56,662 72,473

Only about 20% of post 1975 exposures have been denied for any reason

Page 24: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

History of Cumulative Exposure to JM Asbestos Products.History of Cumulative Exposure to JM Asbestos Products.

Duration of

Exposure (Yrs.) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Total

1 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 2,719

2 1.5% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 1.5% 4,076

3 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8% 4,292

4 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 4,369

5 or more 94.2% 92.4% 91.5% 92.1% 93.9% 201,666

Totals 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

23,614 29,302 31,480 57,832 74,894 217,122

Less Than 5 5.8% 7.6% 8.5% 7.9% 6.1%

Only about 7% with exposure less than 5 years have been denied for any reason.

Page 25: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Year Production Imports Apparent Consumption1961 47,900.00 560,000.00 604,000.00 1962 48,300.00 613,000.00 659,000.00 1963 60,200.00 606,000.00 657,000.00 1964 91,700.00 670,000.00 738,000.00 1965 107,000.00 653,000.00 721,000.00 1966 114,000.00 659,000.00 731,000.00 1967 112,000.00 585,000.00 654,000.00 1968 109,000.00 669,000.00 741,000.00 1969 114,000.00 630,000.00 712,000.00 1970 114,000.00 589,000.00 665,000.00 1971 119,000.00 618,000.00 699,000.00 1972 120,000.00 668,000.00 747,000.00 1973 136,000.00 718,000.00 803,000.00 1974 103,000.00 695,000.00 768,000.00 1975 99,000.00 490,000.00 552,000.00 1976 105,000.00 596,000.00 659,000.00 1977 92,000.00 551,000.00 610,000.00 1978 93,000.00 570,000.00 619,000.00 1979 93,000.00 513,000.00 564,000.00 1980 80,000.00 327,000.00 356,000.00 1981 76,000.00 338,000.00 349,000.00 1982 64,000.00 242,000.00 247,000.00 1983 70,000.00 196,000.00 217,000.00 1984 57,000.00 210,000.00 226,000.00 1985 57,000.00 142,000.00 162,000.00 1986 51,000.00 108,000.00 120,000.00 1987 51,000.00 94,000.00 84,000.00 1988 18,000.00 85,000.00 71,000.00 1989 17,000.00 55,000.00 55,000.00 1990 41,000.00 41,000.00 1991 20,000.00 35,000.00 35,000.00 1992 16,000.00 32,000.00 33,000.00 1993 14,000.00 31,000.00 32,000.00 1994 10,000.00 26,000.00 27,000.00 1995 9,000.00 22,000.00 22,000.00 1996 10,000.00 22,000.00 22,000.00 1997 7,000.00 21,000.00 21,000.00 1998 6,000.00 16,000.00 16,000.00 1999 7,000 16,000.00 22,000.002000 5,000 15,000.00 19,000.002001 5,000 13,000.00 22,000.00

ASBESTOS STATISTICS

Page 26: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Results of Transitioning Selected Forecasts from Alleged to ’Final’ Category and, Based on Scheduled Values, Estimates of

Total Liability.

Transitioned Alleged Injuries to Category Projections

Maximum Mid-Range Minimum

Category 7 53,304 40,587 29,118

Category 6 97,739 49,145 30,191

Category 5 11,192 5,632 3,458

Category 4 25,099 13,164 8,760

Category 3 971,242 491,833 249,446

Category 2 997,926 504,427 256,487

Category 1 291,243 134,373 71,034

Category 0 75,471 38,004 20,570

Total 2,523,215 1,277,164 669,064

Total $ Allocated to Malignancies – Status Quo

22% 26% 32%

Total Liab $MM

Page 27: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Ignoring criteria differences, the redistribution of claims by Category to their nearest Level equivalents and resulting liability estimates

based on proposed Scheduled Values.

Transitioned Category to Level Projections

Assuming No Changes to Injury Criteria

Maximum Mid-Range Minimum

Level VIII 53,304 40,587 29,118

Level VII 97,739 49,145 30,191

Level VI 11,192 5,632 3,458

Level V 25,099 13,164 8,760

Level IV - - -

Level III 971,242 491,833 249,446

Level II 1,289,169 638,799 327,521

Level I - - -

Level O 75,471 38,004 20,570

Total 2,523,215 1,277,164 669,064

Total $ Allocated to Malignancies – Proposed Values

43% 50% 57%

Total Liab $MM $ 69,270 $ 39,653 $ 23,758

Liab. Chg. -29% -24% -18%

Page 28: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Applying the Proposed Injury Criteria to the CategorizationCategorization of Claims.

• Assessing the Financial impact of the proposed changes in injury criteria is significantly more uncertain than assessing the impact of the Scheduled Value changes.

• Based on previous filed claims, we can make some “guess-estimates” with respect to how some criteria changes my re-distribute claims within the Levels and revise the previous liability estimates.

Page 29: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

The Asbestos Problem in a NutshellThe Asbestos Problem in a Nutshell

I. The claim problem: (a) disappearance of serious asbestosis; (b) huge pool of exposed people; and (c) screening industry.

II. The litigation problem: (a) mobility among the states; (b) mobility within the states; (c) consolidations; (d) mixed diseases.

III. The search for the solvent by-stander: (a) almost all traditional defendants in bankruptcy; (b) new industries (friction products); (c) new theories (premises); (d) new players (law firms); and (e) financial community reactions.

IV. Political environment: (a) trial lawyers split; (b) labor ambivalence; and (c) alliance between insurers and business.

Page 30: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Some Effects Of BankruptcySome Effects Of Bankruptcy

• Loss of earnings

• Uncertainty of outcome

• Delay

• Human factors

Page 31: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Section 524(g)Section 524(g)• Trust assumes present and future asbestos liabilities.• Trust funded in whole or part by securities of the debtor

and obligations of debtor to make future payments.• The trust will own – or can own -- a majority of the voting

stock of the debtor.• The trust will pay present and future asbestos claims.• Present and future claims will be treated the same.• Plan is approved by 75% or more of asbestos claimants.• There is a future claims representative.

Page 32: Manville Filings By Selected Industry

Required Court FindingsRequired Court Findings

• The debtor has substantial future demands arising out of asbestos-related liabilities.

• The actual amount of liabilities cannot be determined.

• If no bankruptcy plan, all claims are in jeopardy.• 75% of present and future claimants voted in

favor of Plan.• Trust procedures insure similar treatment for

present and future claimants.


Recommended