Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)

MAPS experiences with long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies

Prof Harald Winkler Director, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town Presentation at Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) 13-14 September 2016, Paris

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

LTMS and MAPS: Robust evidence base and facilitated stakeholder process

• jjk • Long Term Mitigation Scenarios 2006 to 2008 – South Africa

–

• $,5m

• MAPS LAC Programme – Brazil, Chile,

Colombia and Peru – 2010 to Paris 2015 – Donors were CIFF,

SDC, CDKN, Danes, USAID, others

• $22m

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

SBT1 SBT3 SBT4 SBT5 SBT6 SBT2 Mandate Plan or Scenario

Map research capacity

Research base year

data

Base case and RBS

Model actions

Research scaled up

effort Packages of actions,

CGE model

Process steps towards building scenarios

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

LTMS – political lines drawn by SA Cabinet

• Cabinet mandated the LTMS – this lead to the Peak

Plateau and Decline Trajectory (policy)

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Long-term perspective to inform short-term decisions

Start year 2025/30 2050

Con

stra

ints

Flex

ibilit

y

GHG

t

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

1) Long term context - SA’s emissions will “peak, plateau and decline” acc to national policy, within a

specified range

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

2) Medium term goal - SA’s emissions will be within a specific range in 2025 and 2030

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

3) Flexibility - in the longer term, SA’s “PPD” trajectory will be periodically reviewed

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Model development climate?

9

Mitigation

Development

1

2

If that is the relationship, why do we mostly model scenarios of climate stabilisation, mostly globally?

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios High effort scenario

MAPS Chile results – development and mitigation

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

.

How can methodologies be devleped? MAPS Academy

A network of learning institutions

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Backcasting and forecasting ?

Forecasting: ΔABC Feasible pathways starting

from A Back-casting: ΔDEF Range of pathways ending in from D

Solution space: ADGH Meets target conditions, and feasible Source: Ashina et al (2012)

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

What might LGDS be good for?

1. Long-term perspective on short-term investment decisions

2. Link climate and development, by framing LGDS as development strategies

3. Tool in increasing ambition 4. Textured understanding of global

emissions pathways, as composite picture, close to national development

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Discussion Questions

1. How can methodologies for long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies deliver robust outputs and compelling narratives, and create a positive vision for each country?

2. How might long-term strategies inform other more near-term plans, including those focused on climate (e.g. NDCs) and development (e.g. energy, environment or other national development plans)?

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Thank you Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.za www.mapsprogramme.org

www.erc.uct.ac.za

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Art 4.19

All Parties should strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies, mindful of Article 2 taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Decision 1/CP.21, para 35

Invites Parties to communicate, by 2020, to the secretariat mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 19, of the Agreement, and requests the secretariat to publish on the UNFCCC website Parties’ low greenhouse gas emission development strategies as communicated