Marcello Arosio
RISCHI ASSOCIATI AI
CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
Udine - Valdelsa 28 Marzo 2018
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19/04/2018 2
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With the contribution of the LIFE financial
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Marcello Arosio
• Ingegnere Civile & Dottorando allo IUSS di Pavia; • 5 anni d’esperienza nello mondo del rischio • Specialista in DRR and CCA in Vietnam per l’ONU
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Fonte: “Cambiamenti climatici e le politiche ambientali e Territoriali Prof. Stefano Caserini - D.I.C.A. Sez. Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano”
19/04/2018 6
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Fonte: “Cambiamenti climatici e le politiche ambientali e Territoriali Prof. Stefano Caserini - D.I.C.A. Sez. Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano”
19/04/2018 7
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With the contribution of the LIFE financial
instrument of the European Community
LIFE DERRIS - DisastEr Risk Reduction InSurance
[email protected] - www.derris.eu
19/04/2018 9
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•
•
• Ondate di calore • Siccità • Alluvioni • Cicloni tropicali
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•
••
•
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19/04/2018 12
With the contribution of the LIFE financial
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LIFE DERRIS - DisastEr Risk Reduction InSurance
[email protected] - www.derris.eu
19/04/2018 13
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Esposto
19/04/2018 14
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Stephenson D., Definition, diagnosis and origin of extreme weather and climate events, Climate, Extremes and Society, Cambridge University Press, 2008
19/04/2018 15
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Tempo (anni)
Grandezza Intensità
2 3 5 5 2 2 4 4 = 3 anni in media
Valore con tempo di ritorno pari a 3 anni
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Studio conoscitivo dei cambiamenti climatici e di alcuni loro impatti in Friuli Venezia Giulia – Marzo 2018
Andamento delle temperature medie annuali nel periodo 1961-2016 per la
pianura del Friuli Venezia Giulia
linea tratteggiata rappresenta l’andamento
delle temperature medie nei diversi decenni.
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Introduzione ai cambiamenti climatici in Friuli Venezia Giulia - ARPA FVG - OSMER Osservatorio Meteorologico Regionale.
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Introduzione ai cambiamenti climatici in Friuli Venezia Giulia - ARPA FVG - OSMER Osservatorio Meteorologico Regionale.
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Introduzione ai cambiamenti climatici in Friuli Venezia Giulia - ARPA FVG - OSMER Osservatorio Meteorologico Regionale.
19/04/2018 20
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Studio conoscitivo dei cambiamenti climatici e di alcuni loro impatti in Friuli Venezia Giulia – Marzo 2018
Estate Autunno
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LIFE DERRIS - DisastEr Risk Reduction InSurance
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R P V E =
RISK
Vulnerability
Exposure
Hazard
19/04/2018 24
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È la probabilità che accada un evento
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E’ il grado di danno che può conseguire da un evento
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E’ il valore delle cose che possono trovarsi a rischio
19/04/2018 27
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“… questa casa ha una probablità del 20% di essere inondata”
Pericolosità
19/04/2018 29
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“… questa casa sarebbe danneggiata al 30% da un alluvione ”
Vulnerabilità
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“… il valore di questa casa è € 100.000”
Esposizione
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R P V E =
20% 30% 100.000 € 6.000 € =
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R H V E =
Magnitudo
pro
bab
ilità
% D
ann
o
Magnitudo
€
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R H V E =
Dan
no
(€
)
Tempo di ritorno
19/04/2018 34
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R H V E =
Modelli idraulici
19/04/2018 35
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R H V E =
Modelli di danno
19/04/2018 36
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R H V E =
Modelli di danno
Magnitudo dell’evento
Gra
do
di d
ann
o
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R H V E = Il patrimonio / Il portafoglio
€ €
€ € €
19/04/2018 38
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LIFE DERRIS - DisastEr Risk Reduction InSurance
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•
•
•
R H V E =
19/04/2018 39
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19/04/2018 39
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2.
2.1 La pericolosità
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Grandi quantità d’acqua
che precipitano in breve tempo
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L’uso del suolo
AUMENTA le portate,
i volumi e la velocità
L’uso del suolo
DIMINUISCE
il tempo di corrivazione
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Esondazione di un corso d’acqua
in occasione di piene
19/04/2018 45
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19/04/2018 46
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Una precipitazione di durata pari al tempo di
corrivazione si dice critica in quanto alla
sezione di chiusura arriveranno
contemporaneamente gli afflussi da tutto il
bacino
19/04/2018 47
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Area
Satura
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Movimenti in terra molto spesso innescati da forti precipitazioni
19/04/2018 49
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un lungo periodo con alte temperature e poche precipitazioni
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19/04/2018 51
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Precipitazione intense di chicchi e grani ghiacciati
19/04/2018 52
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Generate da grande differenza di temperatura tra masse d’aria associate a venti di altissima intensità
19/04/2018 53
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Scarica elettrica che avviene tra l’atmosfera e la terra a causa della loro carica elettrostatica
19/04/2018 54
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Modelli Meteo
Rischio
Esposizione &
Vulnerabilità
e idraulici
Modelli idrologici
Modelli Climatici
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Necessità di individuare il fenomeno e
produrne una corretta rappresentazione
fisica e probabilistica
Cambiamenti Climatici
19/04/2018 56
2.2 La vulnerabilità
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Evento Danno
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Magnitudo dell’hazard
Grado del danno
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19/04/2018 61
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Studi condotti
su modelli in
scala
Flo
w D
ep
th
Flow Velocity
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Relazione Tirante-Velocità
Stabilità Umana
0.00
0.50
1.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
Velocità, m/s
Tir
an
te i
dri
co
, m
CSU (Abt et al., 1989)
HUT (Maijala et al., 2001)
Uh = 0.6 mq/s
Monolite (Abt et al., 1989)
campo dei valori sperimentali
Flo
w D
ep
th
Flow Velocity
Esperimenti in
laboratorio
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19/04/2018 65
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Tirante, cm100806040200
1
2
3
4
0
Ve
locità
, m
/s
Scale tests (Cacioli Paciscopi,
1999)
Relazione Tirante-Velocità
Mobilizzazione di veicoli
0.00
0.50
1.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
Velocità, m/sT
ira
nte
id
ric
o,
m
h = 0.65 - 0.18U
campo dei valori sperimentali
valori sperimentali
Flo
w D
ep
th
Flow Velocity
19/04/2018 66
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19/04/2018 66
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Effetti (Danni) Evento (Sinistro) Cause (Azioni)
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1. Azioni idrodinamiche
2. Azioni idrostatiche
3. Azioni di erosione
4. Azioni di galleggiamento
5. Azioni dei detriti
6. Azioni non fisiche
19/04/2018 70
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I
Tempo
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pianta
Trascinamento
Sfondamento: - portoni - finestre - cancelli
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Collasso fondazioni Pressione idrostatica
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h
Danni
Attenzione all’utilizzo di curve altezza-danno
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Area alluvionata
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Per il principio di Archimede “un corpo immerso in un fluido in equilibrio subisce una spinta diretta dal basso verso l'alto di intensità pari al peso del volume del fluido spostato”.
19/04/2018 77
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• Spinta di galleggiamento • Pressione idrostatica laterale
• Nessuna azione sulle strutture
19/04/2018 78
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(1) Erosione
(2) Sedimentazione
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prima
dopo
€osti per lo smaltimento !
19/04/2018 81
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Prima Dopo
Monterosso 2011
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Prima Dopo
Monterosso 2011
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(1) Azioni chimiche
(2) Azioni biologiche
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Detersivi Tinture
Vegetazione
Rifiuti industriali Fognatura
Drenaggio urbano Microorganismi
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Calcestruzzo
Aggressione chimica
Legno Pareti
Ammuffimento Legno
Formazione muffe e funghi
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E’ interessante analizzare l’evoluzione temporale dei danni risultante dalle diverse
dinamiche temporali dei fenomeni fisici e dai diversi tempi di reazione a ciascuno di essi
19/04/2018 87
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v
h
u
s
c
b
Velocità idrodinamica
Altezza idrometrica
Umidità
Sedimentazione detriti
Aggressione chimica
Aggressione biologica
tempo
19/04/2018 88
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19/04/2018 89
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19/04/2018 90
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19/04/2018 91
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19/04/2018 91
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•
•
Modellodidanno
Variabilidell’eventofis
ico
Cara eris chedelbeneesposto
Valoredelbeneesposto
www.floodloss.eu
19/04/2018 94
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Modello di danno
Variabili dell’evento fisico
Caratteristiche del bene esposto
Valore del bene esposto
19/04/2018 95
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•
•
–
–
–
19/04/2018 96
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Danno
Costi bonifica Bonifica
Pulizia
Ripristini
Strutturale
Fondazioni
St. portanti verticali
St. portanti orizzontali
Non-Strutturale
Tamponamenti e tramezzi
Intonaci
Rifiniture
Porte e finistre
Impianti
Demolizioni e sgomberi
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Variable Description Unit of
measure
Range of
values
Default value
he Water depth
outside the
building
m >=0 [0;5] step=0.1 m
v Maximum velocity
of the water
perpendicularly to
the building
m/s >=0 0
s Sediment load % on the water
volume
[0;100] 0
d Duration of the
flood event
hours >0 0
q Contaminant load % on thw water
volume [0;100] 0
19/04/2018 98
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Variable Description Unit of
measure
Range of values Default value
FA Footprint area m2 > 0 100
NF Number of floors - ≥ 1 3
EP External perimeter m > 0 40
IP Internal perimeter m > 0 2.5*EP
BA Basement area m2 ≥ 0 25
OA Other stuff area
(at the ground
level)
m2 ≥ 0 10
BT Building type - 1=Detached, 2=Semi-detached
3=Apartment house
1
BS Building structure - 1=Reinforced concrete, 2=Unreinforced
masonry
3=Reinforced masonry, 4=Wood
1
PD Heating Plant
distribution
- 1=centralized
2=distributed
1 if YY≤1980
2 otherwise
PT Heating plant Type - 1=radiator
2=pavement
2 if YY>2000 and FL>1
1 otherwise
FL Finishing level - 0.8= low, 1=medium
1.2=high
1
YY Year of
construction
- ≥ 0 1994
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Scenari climatici e ambientali
intensità Mitagazioni strutturali e
non strutturali Intensità ridotte
Mappe di pericolosità
Dati economici Dati sociali Dati ambientali
Mitigazione economica
Mitigazione sociale Mitigazione ambientale
Funzioni di danno economiche
Funzioni di danno sociale
Funzioni di danno ambientale
Analisi multi criterio
Valutazione del rischio alluvione
Hazard
Exposure
Vulnerability
R I S K
19/04/2018 100
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19/04/2018 101
19/04/2018 102
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19/04/2018 103
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Penning-Roswell, E., and Wilson, T. Gauging the impact of natural hazards: the pattern and cost of emergency response during flood events. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 31, 2 (2006), 99–115 Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A. Assessment of economic flood damage. Natural Hazards Earth System Science 10 (2010), 1697–1724
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LIFE DERRIS - DisastEr Risk Reduction InSurance
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Rinaldi SM, Peerenboom JP, Kelly TK. Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. IEEE Control Systems Magazine 2001;21(6):11–25.
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LIFE DERRIS - DisastEr Risk Reduction InSurance
[email protected] - www.derris.eu
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With the contribution of the LIFE financial
instrument of the European Community
LIFE DERRIS
DisastEr Risk Reduction InSurance
www.derris.eu
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