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MARGIN TOWER Vic NSW WA NSW Vic Vic NSW NSW NSW NSW Qld NSW NSW Qld NSW WA Qld NSW Vic Vic WA NSW Qld NSW NSW Qld WA WA WA Qld NSW Qld NSW Qld Vic Qld Qld Qld Vic Vic Vic Vic Qld Vic WA Vic WA Qld SA NSW NSW NSW Vic Qld WA WA SA Qld Qld Vic SA NSW WA Qld Qld NSW NSW SA Qld NSW Qld Qld LABOR GREENS COALITION CA KAP INDEPENDENT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 NICHOLLS BRADFIELD CURTIN FARRER MALLEE GIPPSLAND MITCHELL BEROWRA RIVERINA NEW ENGLAND ** MARANOA * MACKELLAR COOK GROOM PARKES O’CONNOR MONCRIEFF NORTH SYDNEY KOOYONG GOLDSTEIN FORREST CALARE MCPHERSON LYNE WARRINGAH FADDEN TANGNEY DURACK MOORE FAIRFAX HUME WRIGHT HUGHES FISHER WANNON RYAN HINKLER WIDE BAY MENZIES MONASH ASTON HIGGINS # BOWMAN FLINDERS CANNING DEAKIN STIRLING BRISBANE STURT BENNELONG REID COWPER CASEY LEICHHARDT PEARCE SWAN BARKER *** BONNER DAWSON LA TROBE BOOTHBY PAGE HASLUCK DICKSON PETRIE BANKS ROBERTSON GREY *** FLYNN GILMORE CAPRICORNIA FORDE 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 70 69 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Qld Vic WA Vic NSW Vic NSW Qld NSW Tas Vic NSW Vic WA Tas Vic NSW Qld Vic Vic Qld NSW Vic Tas Vic Vic Qld Vic NT NSW WA Vic WA SA NSW Qld NT Vic NSW SA NSW NSW SA NSW ACT Qld Vic NSW Vic Tas NSW SA Qld Qld WA ACT NSW NSW ACT NSW SA NSW NSW Vic Vic Vic NSW NSW SA NSW NSW Tas Vic Vic NSW NSW Vic Vic Vic 22.62 21.04 20.70 20.53 19.80 18.21 17.82 16.45 16.44 16.42 15.86 15.74 15.39 15.31 15.10 15.04 14.61 13.61 12.80 12.68 12.56 11.81 11.64 11.63 11.55 11.24 11.07 11.06 11.02 10.87 10.18 9.62 9.33 9.15 9.15 8.98 8.38 8.19 7.81 7.51 7.41 7.38 7.07 7.01 6.79 6.44 6.12 6.00 5.39 4.88 4.69 4.56 4.54 3.95 3.63 3.59 3.43 3.39 3.37 3.22 2.71 2.30 2.05 1.69 1.65 1.44 1.14 1.07 1.04 0.73 0.63 0.63 0.02 0.03 0.68 1.03 1.11 1.21 1.22 1.43 2.19 2.31 2.91 2.93 2.98 3.33 3.80 3.87 3.96 4.02 4.21 4.38 4.45 4.81 4.93 5.40 5.52 5.60 5.68 6.00 6.09 6.31 7.11 7.36 7.52 7.53 7.67 8.14 8.19 8.20 8.20 8.30 8.30 8.33 8.43 8.57 8.85 9.01 9.94 9.94 10.40 10.70 10.74 10.79 11.00 11.30 11.43 11.84 12.11 12.46 12.94 13.32 13.55 13.72 13.84 14.05 14.19 15.12 15.31 15.82 17.17 17.49 17.58 17.77 18.49 19.04 19.19 19.48 19.58 19.73 19.79 * Margin over One Nation candidate ** Margin over independent candidate *** Margin over CA candidate # Margin over Greens candidate ## Margin over Coalition candidate HERBERT CORANGAMITE (notionally Labor) COWAN DUNKLEY (notionally Labor) LINDSAY MACNAMARA WENTWORTH GRIFFITH MACQUARIE BRADDON CHISHOLM EDEN-MONARO ISAACS PERTH LYONS BENDIGO RICHMOND MORETON HOTHAM COOPER # LONGMAN DOBELL WILLS # BASS INDI ## JAGAJAGA LILLEY MCEWEN SOLOMON GREENWAY BURT BALLARAT FREMANTLE MAYO ## PARRAMATTA BLAIR LINGIARI CORIO WERRIWA ADELAIDE BARTON MACARTHUR HINDMARSH KINGSFORD SMITH BEAN OXLEY HOLT SHORTLAND MARIBYRNONG FRANKLIN PATERSON MAKIN KENNEDY ## RANKIN BRAND FENNER MCMAHON HUNTER CANBERRA CUNNINGHAM KINGSTON WHITLAM NEWCASTLE BRUCE LALOR GELLIBRAND SYDNEY GRAYNDLER # SPENCE FOWLER WATSON CLARK ## GORTON MELBOURNE ## CHIFLEY BLAXLAND SCULLIN CALWELL FRASER 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 % SEAT MARGIN No. STATE Labor requires a net gain of four seats to win majority government There are 7 seats held by minor parties and independents Labor held 69 seats after the 2016 election Now, it notionally holds 72 after a redistribution turned two Liberal-held seats to Labor, created two seats that are notionally Labor-held and abolished one Labor-held seat New seats: Fraser, Bean Renamed seats: Melbourne Ports Macnamara Batman Cooper Wakefield Spence Denison Clark Abolished seat: Port Adelaide LABOR, MINOR PARTIES AND INDEPENDENTS COALITION Coalition held 76 seats after the 2016 election. It now has 72 after it lost one in a by-election and another through an MP’s defection, while a redistribution left two seats notionally held by Labor Every seat past 75 builds a majority in the House of Representatives, which will now have 151 seats The Coalition requires a net gain of four seats to return to majority government Renamed seats: Murray Nicholls McMillan Monash Wentworth: NSW (Independent 1.22%) Inner eastern Sydney Sitting member: Kerryn Phelps Phelps won a narrow victory in October 2018 after the axing of Malcolm Turnbull, who had held the seat. Liberals are confident they can turn the tide this time. Lindsay: NSW (Labor 1.11%) Outer western Sydney based around Penrith Labor MP Emma Husar resigned after accusations of staff bullying. Expected Liberal win. Indi: Vic (Independent 5.52%) Regional seat in northern Victoria based around Wodonga, Wangaratta, Benalla and Euroa. Sitting member: Cathy McGowan (retiring) Liberals are confident of victory after McGowan’s departure. Herbert: Qld (Labor 0.02%) Regional seat covering Townsville Sitting member: Cathy O’Toole O’Toole won by just 37 votes last time and the Liberals are confident the Adani coal issue is helping. Solomon: NT (Labor 6.09%) Urban electorate based around Darwin Sitting member: Luke Gosling Liberals hope anger at NT Labor state government will produce victory. SEATS TO WATCH | Expected to change hands WHERE TO WATCH ALL RIGHT ON THE NIGHT LIBERAL GAINS COALITION SEATS AT RISK LABOR SEATS AT RISK Sky News, from 5pm Hosted by political editor David Speers, with Laura Jayes, Kieran Gilbert, Chris Kenny, Andrew Bolt and Paul Murray. Guests include Alan Jones, Liberal powerbroker Michael Kroger, Liberal senator Mathias Cormann, Peta Credlin, Labor’s Richard Marles, Stephen Conroy and Graham Richardson. Seven, from 5pm Coverage kicks off with live pre- news show. From 6.45pm, presenter Michael Usher and political editor Mark Riley will lead coverage, alongside Labor’s Chris Bowen and Jenny McAllister, plus the Liberals’ Michaelia Cash and former MP Craig Laundy as well as broadcaster Alan Jones and Jeff Kennett. Nine, from 5pm Kicks off with an hour special election coverage followed by its 6pm news. Election coverage continues at 7pm, hosted by Peter Overton and Deborah Knight, with chief political editor Chris Uhlmann. Plus former foreign minister Julie Bishop, Labor’s Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese and Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie. Ten, from 5pm Hosted by Sandra Sully, Chris Bath and Hamish Macdonald, along with presenter Waleed Aly and The Australian’s contributing editor, Peter van Onselen. Plus, retiring Liberal minister Christopher Pyne, Labor senator Kristina Keneally, former Labor senator Sam Dastyari and Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman. ABC, from 5pm Jeremy Fernandez hosts a special one- hour edition of the news. From 6pm, its election night live coverage kicks off with journalists Leigh Sales, Annabel Crabb, Andrew Probyn, Laura Tingle, Barrie Cassidy, Michael Rowland, Greg Jennett and Patricia Karvelas, with election analyst Antony Green. Guests include Liberal senator Arthur Sinodinos and Labor’s Penny Wong. SBS, from 10.10pm Led by chief political reporter Brett Mason, with TV presenters Janice Peterson and Brett Mason. All times AEST Dunkley: Vic (Liberal but notionally Labor 1.03%) Urban seat in Melbourne’s outer southeast Sitting member: Chris Crewther A redistribution has made the seat marginally Labor. ALP gain. Chisholm Vic (Independent, 2.91%) Eastern suburbs, Melbourne Sitting member: Julia Banks (resigned) Banks quit the Liberals after Malcolm Turnbull was deposed and is contesting the nearby seat of Flinders as an independent makes this an ALP gain. Swan, WA, (Liberal 3.59%) Urban Perth Sitting member: Steve Irons. Labor candidate is Hannah Beazley, daughter of Kim Beazley, who is favoured to win. Cowper: NSW, (Nats, 4.56%) Mid-north coast NSW stretching from Port Macquarie to Coffs Harbour Sitting member: Luke Hartsuyker (retired) Independent Rob Oakeshott is a formidable opponent for Nationals candidate Patrick Conghan. Too close to call. Farrer: NSW, (Liberal, 20%) Rural seat from the Murray River to SA border Sitting member: Sussan Ley Anger over water has triggered a revolt which could see independent Kevin Mack win. Ley is in real trouble here. Gilmore: NSW (Liberal 0.7%) NSW south coast Sitting member: Ann Sudmalis (retired) The Liberals have chosen former Labor president Warren Mundine as their candidate, the Nationals Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor Fiona Phillips. Toss up. Reid: NSW (Liberal 4.7%) Western Sydney . Sitting member: Craig Laundy (retired) Laundy’s decision to retire has put the seat in play. The contest is an arm wrestle between psychologist Fiona Martin for the Liberals and Labor’s Sam Crosby. Must win for Scott Morrison. Robertson: NSW (Liberal, 1.1%) NSW central coast Sitting member: Lucy Wicks Has gone with the party of government since 1980s. Another must-win for Morrison. Warringah: NSW, (Lib, 11%) Sydney’s lower north shore and northern beaches Sitting member: Tony Abbott One of the battles of the campaign between Abbott and independent Zali Steggall. Too close to call. Casey: Vic, (Liberal, 4.5%) Outer suburban and includes regional centres such as Healesville and Warburton Sitting member: Tony Smith Smith, the speaker of the House of Representatives, seems set to hang on after initial fears. Higgins: Vic (Liberal, 7.8%) Inner eastern Melbourne Sitting member: Kelly O’Dwyer (retiring) Liberal candidate Katie Allen faces a strong challenge from the Greens, who are running gay AFL player Jason Ball. Greens likely to fall just short. Corangamite: Vic, (notionally Labor, 0.03%) Outer southern Geelong and Great Ocean Road Sitting member: Sarah Henderson Scott Morrison has thrown everything at this seat and it will come down a few hundred votes. If he can can’t win this one, he likely can’t win government. La Trobe: Vic (Liberal, 3.2%) Outer suburban covering Dandenong to Narre Warren and Pakenham southeast of Melbourne Sitting member: Jason Wood The tide is against the Coalition in Victoria and Wood has a fight on his hands. Forde: Qld (LNP, 0.63%) Outer metropolitan based around Logan City Council Sitting member: Bert Van Manen The LNP has been struggling here. Flynn: Qld (LNP, 1.1%) Regional seat including Gladstone and Emerald in central Queensland Sitting member: Ken O’Dowd Labor’s Zac Beers is mounting a strong challenge to the veteran O’Dowd. Too close to call. Petrie: Qld (LNP, 1.6%) Outer metropolitan on Brisbane’s north Sitting member: Luke Howarth This seat has gone with government in every election since 1984. One to watch. Dickson: Qld (LNP, 1.7%) Northwest outer Brisbane Sitting member: Peter Dutton GetUp has targeted Dutton and Labor has put up Ali France, a former journalist and disability advocate. Will be close, but Dutton looks to have the edge. Hasluck: WA, (Liberal, 2.1%) Eastern Perth Sitting member: Ken Wyatt Labor candidate James Martin expected to fall short. Pearce: WA (Liberal, 3.6%) Urban-rural electorate that includes Perth’s northern suburbs Sitting member: Christian Porter Labor is mounting a strong campaign here against the Attorney-General and has hopes. Stirling, WA (Liberal 6.1%) Inner northern Perth Sitting member: Michael Keenan (retired) Keenan’s retirement has opened the gate for Labor. Braddon, Tas (Labor, 2.31%) Northwest and western coastal Tasmania Sitting member: Justine Keay Keay has voiced concerns over Labor’s franking credits policy. Malcolm Turnbull couldn’t win this in last year’s by-election but the Libs are in the fight this time. Bass, Tas (Labor, 5.4%) Northeast Tasmania. Sitting member: Ross Hart This volatile seat has switched members in eight of its last nine elections. It’s enough to make any MP nervous. Longman: Qld (Labor, 4.45%) Outer urban, incl Caboolture north of Brisbane Sitting member: Susan Lamb The Liberals have late hopes in Longman after the disappointment in last year’s by-election, where Lamb increased her margin. Could be a surprise on the night. LABOR GAINS YOUR GUIDE TO ONLINE, ON YOUR MOBILE LIVE BLOG for up-to-the-minute news SID MAHER calls the seats as they fall LIVE graphic updates The ultimate second-screen experience of the count on your desktop, laptop or mobile ONLINE TONIGHT www.theaustralian.com.au SID MAHER Election night is a bit like a rollercoaster ride. It usually starts slow before a few radical twists and turns either bring on a feeling of euphoria or nausea depending on how you are enjoying the ride. Polls close at 6pm on the east coast and apart from a few exit polls, there isn’t a lot of action until around 6.30pm when the first results come in. Small booths often get counted first and there can be some wild swings as the early votes are counted. Tasmania is usually the first state to give a solid trend. As the only state where the Liberals have nothing to lose this year and Labor is defending Braddon (2.31%), Lyons (3.8%) and Bass (5.4%), Coalition supporters will be hoping for some gains here. Seats in Queensland, NSW and Victoria take longer to show meaningful trends, which usually begin to emerge between 7pm and 8pm. With political insiders tipping a tight contest, this year may take longer. Labor supporters will be paying close attention to Victoria, where the Coalition is expected to lose Dunkley, after the redistribution and Chisholm held by Julia Banks, who quit the party and became an independent after the axing of Malcolm Turnbull. Another seat to watch early is Indi, where sitting independent Cathy McGowan is retiring. The Coalition is expected to regain this seat. The most contested seats here are likely to be Corangamite (nominally Labor after a redistribution by 0.03%) and La Trobe (3.22%) in Victoria, and the results here may not be known until late in the night. In Queensland, early contests to watch include the Liberal seats of Dickson and Petrie, both marginal Liberal and expected to be held by the Coalition. If these seats fall to Labor, Bill Shorten is well on his way to victory. If they hold, attention later in the night is expected to fall to Herbert (Labor, 0.02%) and Longman (Labor 4.45%), where the Coalition has claims. Labor best prospects look to be Flynn (1.04%) in central Queensland and Forde (0.63%) south of Brisbane. In NSW, the Coalition has hopes in the Labor seat of Lindsay (1.11%) and Wentworth (1.22%). But Labor has high hopes in Gilmore (Lib 0.73%) and Robertson (1.14%) while the safe seat of Farrer (Lib 20.53%) could fall to an independent. Potential wildcards include Cowper (Nat, 4.56%) where Rob Oakeshott is a strong chance, Warringah in Sydney’s north where independent Zali Steggall is challenging Tony Abbott and Higgins in inner Melbourne where the Greens are challenging the Liberals. By 8pm if the election is still tight, all eyes will turn to WA, where the Liberals are defending Hasluck (2.05%), Swan (3.59%), Pearce (3.63%) and Stirling (6.12%). Only the seat of Cowan (ALP, 0.68%) appears to be in play.
