()1 R t 19~,7~ 341 I~11 817

Geophys. Jl R. astr. Soc., 89(2):637-655, Dept. of Math., Statistics and Computer Sci., Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL 60680, USA.

87:5415 Pedlosky, Joseph and L.M. Polvani, 1987. Wave-

wave interaction of unstable baroclinic waves. J. armor. Sci., 44(3):631-647.

Two slightly unstable baroclinic waves in the two-layer Phillips model interact with each other as well as the mean flow, A theory for small dissipation rates is developed to examine the role of wave-wave interaction in the dynamics of vacillation and aperiodicity in unstable systems. The form of the dissipation mechanism as well as the overall dissi- pation timescale determines the nature of the dynamics. Dissipation proportional to potential vorticity expunges amplitude vacillation due to wave-mean flow interaction. Wave-wave interaction can yield amplitude vacillation. As dissipation is decreased, solutions evolve from steady waves to periodic vacillation until finally chaotic behavior is obtained. This occurs in a range of relative growth rates of the two waves which depends on the strength

of the wave-wave and wave-mean flow interactions. WHOI, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.

87:5416 Rood, R.B., 1987. Numerical adveetion algorithms

and their role in atmospheric transport and chemistry models. Revs Geophys., 25(1):71-100.

The extensive literature comparing transport algo- rithms is reviewed, and several conclusions can be made. The judicious use of simple finite difference schemes provides a minimum level of accuracy that is suitable for many atmospheric applications (sig- nificant improvements in accuracy can be obtained at great expense). Spectral and pseudospectral techniques consistently provide the highest degree of accuracy, but expense and difficulties assuring positive mixing ratios are serious drawbacks. Schemes which consider fluid slabs bounded by grid points (volume schemes) provide accurate positive definite results. The computer memory requirements of the volume schemes can be excessive. Atmos. Chem. and Dynamics Branch. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.

B. MARINE METEOROLOGY

BI0. Apparatus and methods

87:5417 gnting, I.G., 1987. On the application of lattice

statistics to ]CO_,] bubble trapping in ice. Tellus, 39B( 1-2): 100-113.

[he use of the percolation model from lattice statistics to represent the distribution of trapping times for air bubbles in polar ice is discussed. A number of relevant techniques and results from the statistical mechanics of phase transitions are re- viewed in order to propose suitable approaches for performing a more refined lattice statistics analysis of bubble trapping. CSIRO, Div. of Atmos. Res., Private Bag 1, Mordialloc, Vic 3195, Australia,

87:5418 Fraedrich, Klaus, 1987. El Nifio iterations. Beitr.

Phys. 4 tmos., 60( 1 ):22-33.

An empirical (quadratic) temperature iteration is deduced from observed annual E1 Niflo/Southern Oscillation intensities with the thermal inertia or ocean surface layer depth representing the external or bifurcation parameter, This leads to the concept of an iterative climate system, the dynamics of which are analysed. (1) The structural analysis of the system emphasizes a basin of attraction and em- bedded intervals, from which the time evolution of the system cannot escape. (2) Further details of the time evolution reveal the known features of period doubling. (3) Stochastic forcing diffuses the itera- tions and enhances the parameter domain of irreg- ularity with increasing noise level: but the main stability properties with the attractor basin and

818 B. Marine Meteorology ()1 R ( 19~7134 t IO)

invariant interval remain almost unchanged. Bur. of Meteorol. Res. Centre, Melbourne, Vic. 3001, Aus- tralia.

87:5419 Nicholls, Neville, 1987. The use o| canonical corre-

lation to study teleconoections. Mon. Weath. Rev, 115(2):393-399.

Canonical correlation can elucidate the temporal signature of the teleconnections and the lags be- tween variables. The teleconnections studied are between Darwin pressure and Tahiti pressure, southeast Australian rainfall, and Willis Island air temperature. In each example the canonical corre- lation analysis confirms the teleconnections uncov- ered previously by other statistical techniques but also suggests the existence of other interesting features of these teleconnections. Bureau of Meteorol. Res. Centre, Melbourne, Australia.

87:5420 Yao, M.-S. and P.H. Stone, 1987. Development of a

two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dy- namical model. Part I. The parameterization of moist convection and its role in the general circulation. J. atmos. Sci., 44(1):65-82. M/A- Com Sigma Data, Inc., NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Inst. for Space Studies, New York. NY 10025, USA.

B40. Area studies, surveys, weather

87:5421 Gillette, D.A., W.D. Komhyr, L.S. Waterman, L.P.

Steele and R.H. Gammon, 1987. The NOAA/GMCC continuous CO 2 record at the South Pole, 1975-1982. J. geophys. Res., 92(D4): 4231-4240.

A spectral analysis of the ambient CO2 variability showed very little power for periods shorter than 5 days. Data showed good agreement with other data sets for the range of the annual fluctuation from 1977 to 1982 and disagreements for 1976. The estimated annual CO2 increase (about 0.6 to 2 ppm yr ') and ranges of seasonal fluctuation were insen- sitive to the data selection methods used. After 1979, seasonal fluctuations apparently decreased. Air Resour. Lab., Geophysical Monitoring for Climate Change, NOAA, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.

87:5422 Meehl, G.A., 1987. The annual cycle and interannual

variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Mort. Weath. Rev., 115(1):27-50.

The observed behavior of the coupled air-sea system in the region is examined first in terms of the mean annual cycle, and then in terms of year-to-year fluctuations of the system. The results show that processes in the region are continually evolving from one annual cycle to the next and that Warm and Cold Events are not discrete occurrences but are extremes of patterns which appear in many other years as part of the dynamically coupled air-sea system. NCAR, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

B50. Common atmospheric properties ( tempera ture , humidi ty , etc.)

87:5423 Monfray, Patrick, Andr~ Gaudry, Georges Polian

and G~rard Lambert, 1987. Seasonal variations of atmospheric CO 2 in the southern Indian Ocean. Tellus, 39B(1-2):67-71.

Atmospheric CO2 recording at Amsterdam Island shows a 0.7 ppm seasonal effect, non-attributable to local causes and significantly different from the results obtained in other southern hemisphere stations. An attempt is made at comparing this seasonal variation to CO 2 models. Centre des Faibles Radioactivites, CNRS, Av. de la Terrasse, B.P. 1, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.

87:5424 Siegenthaler, U. and H. Oeschger, 1987. Biospheric

CO2 emissions during the past 200 years recon- structed by deconvolution of ice core data. Tel~us, 39B(1-2): 140-154.

Quantitative estimates of the emission rates were performed by deconvolving the CO~ and 8'3C records, using models of the global carbon cycle (box-diffusion and outcrop-diffusion ocean, four- box biosphere). Depending on the structure of the ocean submodel, deconvolution of the CO2 record yields a cumulative non-fossil production of about 90 to 150 Gt C until 1980, of which more than 50% were released prior to 1900. The net non-fossil production rate was roughly constant in the 19th and the first part of the 20th century. In the past 30 years, smaller values are obtained which are at the lower limit or below current ecological estimates for deforestation and land use, possibly due to other sinks. While the change of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration reflects more the cumulative carbon release, the isotope concentrations are more sensitive to short-term changes of the emission rate, because the oceanic uptake capacity is smaller for excess CO,

()t R t P ~ t 34 !ll)} B. Marine Meteorolog 3 819

by the buffer factor of ~10 than for an isotopic perturbation. Phys. Inst., Univ. of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.

87:5425 Wu, M.-F., M.A. Geller, J.G. Olson and E.M.

Larson, 1987. A study of global ozone transport and the role of planetary waves using satellite data. J. geophys. Res., 92(D3):3081-3097. Lab. for Atmos., NASA Goddard Space Flight Cen- ter, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.

B80. Radiation

87:5426 Koprova, L.I., 1986. Integral characteristics of

atmospheric transparency and their constituents in the energy active zone of the Gulf Stream in winter. Soy. Met. Hydrol. (a translation of Meteorologiya Gidrol.), 4:53-58.

87:5427 Schaller, Eberhard and Norbert Kalthoff, 1986.

Some aspects of the interaction between radia- tion, advection and turbulence in the planetary boundary layer. Meteorologische Rdsch., 39(6): 203-213.

Radiation plays the role of a source/sink term in the budget equation for dry static energy. We present two case studies from the PUKK experiment for the convective and the stably stratified nocturnal bound- ary layer to demonstrate the influence of the radiative flux divergence on the structure of those two types. The boundary layer structure is non- stationary and non-homogeneous in both cases. Even under strong advective conditions, the cool- ing/heating due to atmospheric radiation cannot be neglected. Its vertical structure is influenced by strong temperature gradients in the nocturnal sur- face inversion and the capping inversion above the convective boundary layer. Clouds add other local structures to the vertical profile of the radiative flux divergence that can only be accounted for with detailed computations using a complete radiation model. Meteorol. Inst. der Univ. Auf dem Hugel 20, D-5300 Bonn 1, FRG.

BII0. Climate, climatology

flicting ENSO signals observed in the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(1):297-316.

A number of important anomalies in circulation, surface temperature and precipitation were observed in the December 1985-February 1986 (DJF) season, particularly in the winter hemisphere, but no single dominant coherent phenomenon comparable to the strong intraseasonal oscillations of DJF 1984-85 was seen. A topic of considerable interest was the possibility that an ENSO event was developing; this paper discusses the seasonal features of the global tropics, the evolution of equatorial ENSO-like features, and the seasonal anomalies observed in Northern and Southern hemispheres. Climate Anal- ysis Center, Natl. Meteorol. Center. NWS/NOAA, Washington, DC 20233, USA.

87:5429 Barnston, A.G., 1987. The global climate for March-

May 1986: continued uncertainty about the possible onset of an ENSO episode. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(1):317-335.

March-May 1986 was characterized by moderately strong extratropical anomalies in geopotential height and surface temperature and precipitation, while the global tropics gave mixed signals as to whether or not an El Niho/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) epi- sode was in the making. This report focuses on the seasonal characteristics of the global tropics, in- cluding the indications and contraindications of an incipient ENSO episode. Southern and Northern hemispheric climate anomalies are discussed. Cli- mate Analysis Center, Natl. Meteorol. Center, NWS/NOAA, Washington, DC 20233, USA.

87:5430 Bryson, R.A. and B.M. Goodman, 1986. Milan-

kovitch and global ice volume simulation. Theor. appl. Climatol., 37(1-2):22-28.

This paper examines the role of the Milankovitch mechanism in the timing of the Pleistocene glaci- ation sequence, distinguishing between astronomi- cally driven climate forcing and the integrated response given by the sea bottom oxygen isotope sequence, to reconcile the large signal of the longer period terms with the calculated magnitude. The integration partially resolves the problem of ice volume spectra with too much power in the lowest frequencies. Center for Climatic Res., Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA. (jrb)

87:5428 Arkin, P.A. and J.E. Janowiak, 1987. The global

climate for December 1985--February 1986. Con-

87:5431 Jain, A.K., M. Lal and M.C. Sinha, 1986. On the

meridional distribution of climate changes due to

820 B, Marine Meteorology ( f I R i It~7) 34 I lO)

doubling of CO2 content in the atmosphere. Theor. appl. Cfimatol., 37(1-2):15-21.

A 2-D radiative-convective model is used to deter- mine mean yearly zonally-averaged temperature profiles of 18 latitudinal belts of 10 ° width. It includes meridional heat transport and effects of surface albedo and lapse rate feedback, and unlike other models, excludes the numerical solution of zonally-averaged primitive equations to deal with the numerical complexities. CO~-induced surface tem- perature response is found to be 1.6°C near the Equator, 4°C in polar regions and 2.1°C for global mean, in agreement with other GMCs. Centre for Atmos. Sci., Indian Inst. of Tech., Hauz Khas, New Delhi I10 016, India. Orb)

87:5432 Meehl, G.A., 1987. The tropics and their role in the

global climate system. Geogrl J., 153(1):21-36.

This paper intends to show how results from traditional observational studies and general cir- culation model climate simulations have combined to promote rapid advances in our knowledge of how the tropics may affect weather and climate over the rest of the planet. It is suggested that the direction of future research will be greatly influenced by new observational and modelling programmes such as the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Programme and the introduction of the next generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Climate Section, NCAR, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

87:5433 SchOnwiese, C.-D., 1986. The CO z climate response

problem: a statistical approach. Theor. appl. Climatol., 37(!-2): 1-14.

The greenhouse effect is conditionally verified by multiple regression with time series of yearly- averaged historical data for near surface tempera- tures, corresponding stratospheric data and SSTs for the Northern Hemisphere, and global mean sea level fluctuations. Volcanic and solar forcing parameters are implied and the data filtered to account for part of the variance. The 'industrial' CO, increase gives a Northern Hemisphere near surface increase of ~ . 7 K, and CO_~ doubling yields a 3.1 _ .6 K increase, in agreement with most deterministic climate models. Inst. fur Meteorol. und Geophys., Univ. Frankfurt, Feldbergstr. 47, D-6000 Frankfurt am Main 1, FRG.

87:5434 SchOnwiese, C.-D., 1987. Observational assessments

of the hemispheric and global climate response to increasing greenhouse gases. Beitr. Phys. A tmos., 600):48-64.

In an attempt to document the increased air temperature predicted by climate models to be a consequence of atmospheric CO, doubling, records of SST and near surface air temperature over land areas were analyzed for the last 100-130 years. The results indicate trace gas induced climatic effects which agree with GCM data and other results. Problems which complicate interpretation of the results are discussed, including time lags and non-linearity of effects. Inst. fur Meteorol. und Geophysik, Univ. Frankfur t /M, FRG. (gsb)

87:5435 Verbitskiy, M.Ya. and D.V. Chalikov, 1986. A

climate model for the World Ocean. Oceanology (a translation of Okeanologiia), 26(3):265-270.

A thermohydrodynamic model is proposed that takes into account an approximation of actual World Ocean morphology and is designed to reproduce the long-period climate evolution within a three-component ocean-atmosphere- ice system. Present ocean climate is calculated (temperature, heat exchange with the atmosphere, and meridional heat and mass fluxes) and model sensitivity inves- tigated. Shirshov Inst. of Oceanol., Leningrad Branch, Acad. of Sci., USSR.

BI40. Air-sea interactions

87:5436 Andreas, E.L. (comment), T.J. Bennett Jr. and

Kenneth Hunkins (reply), 1987. [Discussion of]: 'Atmospheric boundary layer modification in the marginal ice zone.' J. geophys. Res., 92(C4): 3965-3969.

87:5437 Behrend, Hartmut, 1987. Teleconneetions of rainfall

anomalies and of the Southern Oscillation over the entire tropics and their seasonal dependence. Tellus, 39A: 138-151.

The magnitude and phase of these rainfall anomalies are computed for a typical E1 Niflo event using a so-called composite analysis. Rainfall anomalies persist for almost an entire year over the islands of the equatorial Central Pacific, whereas over most areas in and around the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean, they only tend to persist for a season or two. The Southern Oscillation is negatively-correlated with the majority of the rainfall anomalies except for those from India, Indonesia, Hawaii and the north coast of Venezuela. The rainfall anomalies calcu- lated for a typical E! Nifio event fit into this general scheme of teleconnections. Max Planck Inst. fur meteorol., Bundesstr. 55 D-2000 Hamburg, FRG.

~L R I 1~,7134 I ttll B. Mar ine Me teo ro logy 821

87:5438 Betts, A.K. and B.A. Albrecht, 1987. Conserved

variable analysis of the convective boundary layer thermodynamic structure over the tropical oceans. J. atmos. Sci., 44(1):83-99.

An analysis of F G G E dropwindsonde data using conserved thermodynamic variables shows mixing line structures for the convective boundary layer over the equatorial Pacific. Deeper boundary layers show a double structure. Reversals of the gradients of mixing ratio and equivalent potential temperature above the boundary-layer top are present in all the averages and suggest that the origin of the air sinking into the boundary layer needs further study. West Pawlet, VT 05775, USA.

87:5439 Byutner, E.K. and M.V. Shabalova, 1986. Simple

mathematical model of atmospheric moisture exchange over the ocean. Soy. Met. Hydrol. (a translation of Meteorologiya Gidrol.), 6:1-5.

Climate characteristics such as total atmospheric moisture and condensation level altitude are esti- mated and compared with empirical data, and the relation of lower and upper tropospheric tempera- ture gradients to the oceanic evaporation conditions established. Orb)

87:5440 Colin, Christian and S.L. Garzoli, 1987. ln-situ wind

measurements and the ocean response in the equatorial Atlantic during the Programme Francais Ocean et Climat dans I'Atlantique Equatorial and seasonal response of the Atlantic Ocean Experiment. J. geophys. Res., 92(C4): 3741-3750.

In-situ simultaneous wind and temperature meas- urements in the western (I°N, 29°W; 0 °, 28°W) and eastern (0°N, 4°W) equatorial Atlantic February 1983-October 1984 are described. The seasonal variability of the wind is analyzed vis-a-vis local SST and depth of the 20°C isotherm, representative of the thermocline depth; theoretical results from a general circulation model are used to interpret oceanic response at the two locations to abrupt intensification and relaxation of the wind. Office de la Recherche Sci. et Tech. d'Outre-Mer, Paris, France.

87:5441 du Penhoat, Yves and Yves Gouriou, 1987. Hind-

casts of equatorial sea surface dynamic height in the Atlantic in 1982-1984. J. geophys. Res., 92(C4):3729-3740.

Two different wind data sets of the years 1982-1984 are used to force a linear multimode model of the tropical Atlantic ocean. We describe the variations of the equatorial slope in both cases; the main discrepancy occurs in 1983 for the amplitude of the seasonal signal all along the equator. Model results are also compared with observations taken during the FOCAL/SEQUAL experiment. The contrast between 1983 and 1984 is well captured by the two runs. ORSTOM, Centre IFREMER, 29273 Brest, France.

87:5442 Elliott, W.P. and J.K. Angell, 1987. On the relation

between atmospheric CO2 and equatorial sea- surface temperature. Tellus, 39B(1-2):171-183.

Long-term CO 2 records at Mauna Loa and the South Pole and the shorter records at Barrow, Samoa, the South Pole and Mauna Loa were used, following corrections for annual cycles and fossil fuel emis- sions. Warmer than average SST precedes above- average increases in CO 2 by about one season at Mauna Loa and two seasons at the South Pole. The shorter records at Samoa and Barrow support longer lags--2 to 3 seasons at Samoa and 3 to 5 seasons at Barrow. The correlations and their lags change with time, there being periods of relatively high corre- lation associated with E1 Nifio events. Furthermore, there is a seasonal preference for these high corre- lations. At Mauna Loa, the change of CO 2 from fall to spring is better correlated with antecedent SST than the changes from spring to fall. At the South Pole, a similar pattern is found with a one-season shift. Air Resour. Lab., NOAA, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.

87:5443 Eremeev, V.N. and A.Kh. Degterev, 1986. CO 2

exchange between the ocean and atmosphere in the South Atlantic. Sov. Met. Hydrol. (a trans- lation of Meteorologiya Gidrol.), 5:51-54.

The partial pressure of CO 2 in surface waters was indirectly determined from available pH and alka- linity data for the South Atlantic and adjacent circumpolar waters; seasonal and latitudinal vari- ation in ocean-atmosphere CO 2 flow was also assessed. The data did not demonstrate a large ocean-atmosphere integral flow, but rather sup- ported suggestions of approximate equilibrium in CO 2 between the atmosphere and the surface layer of the ocean. (gsb)

87:5444 Fushimi, Katsuhiko, 1987. Variation of carbon

dioxide partial pressure in the western North

822 B. Marine Meteorology ()I.R 11987) 34 (I0)

Pacific surface water during the 1982/83 El Nifio event. Tellus, 39B(1-2):214-227.

Throughout the E1 Nifao event, pCO2 values in surface waters in tropical and western regions increased by up to 20 to 40 /Jatm above normal values. Near the Equator, along the meridian of 137°E, a remarkable increase of pCO 2 was strongly correlated with increased salinity, which could be related to eastward displacement of warm water and enhanced upwelling of subsurface water. In the area from 14°N to 5.5°N along 137°E, the pC02 and temperatures in the surface seawater, which were strongly correlated with each other, showed "lower values than normal and the variation of pCO2 was strongly correlated with water temperatures. Mar. Dept., Japan Meteorol. Agcy., 3 -40 temach i 1, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan.

87:5445 Garratt, J.R., 1987. The stably stratified internal

boundary layer for steady and diurnally varying offshore flow. Boundary-layer Met., 38(4):369- 394.

A 2-D numerical mesoscale model is used to investigate the internal structure and growth of the IBL beneath warm, continental air flowing over a cooler sea. In the steady state case, vertical profiles of mean quantities and eddy diffusion coefficients within the IBL show small, but significant, changes with increasing distance from the coast. In the diurnally varying case, the mean profiles within the IBL show only small differences from the steady- state case, although diurnal variations in the wind maximum are evident within a few hundred km of the coast. CSIRO Div. of Atmos. Res., Private Bag No. 1, Mordialloc, Vic., 3195, Australia.

87:5446 Gaudry, Andrr, Patrick Monfray, Georges Polian

and Grrard Lambert, 1987. The 1982--1983 El Nifio: a 6 billion ton COz release. Tellus, 39B(I-2):209-213.

Atmospheric CO2 concentration at Amsterdam Island showed important variations of the increase rate during the 1982-1983 E1 Nifio. After elimination of the weak local and regional interferences, the main feature of the CO2 record is a slower than normal increase rate at the beginning and at the end of this El Niho, and higher than usual from December 1982 to July 1983. Overall, the CO, increase curve is shifted upward by 1 ppm, which corresponds to a supplementary input into the atmosphere of about 6 billion tons of CO2. Centre des Faibles Radioactivites, CNRS, Av. de la Ter- rasse, B.P. 1, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.

87:5447 Gonella, J.A., 1987, Ocean-atmosphere coupling and

short term fluctuations of Earth rotation. Ocean- ologica Acta, 10(1):123-127.

Measurements of fluctuations in length-of-day (l.o.d.) and angular momentum of the atmosphere are strongly correlated, supporting the assumption that the entire planet is a closed dynamic system. Accelerations of atmospheric angular momentum occur simultaneously with decelerations of the rotation of the solid Earth, and vice versa, with 1.o.d. change of about one millisecond in an annual period. In this paper, only the minor role of the World Ocean is discussed; the wind-driven Southern Ocean could make at most a contribution of only a few percent of the total change of 1.o.d. Mus. Natl. d'Histoire Nat., 43-45, rue Cuvier, 75005 Paris, France.

87:5448 Hastenrath, Stefan and Jacques Merle, 1987. On the

annual cycle of subsurface heat budget and thermal structure of the tropical Atlantic. Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 60(1): 1-1 I.

Subsurface temperature fields are strongly affected by the surface wind field. In the equatorial belt, isothermal surfaces in the west deepen from April to August; in the east, the reverse occurs. During the same period, a northward migration of the shallow mixed layer takes place. Annual variability in oceanic heat storage is in accord with these patterns, as is the surface wind confluence. Dept. of Meteorol., Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA. (sir)

87:5449 Hense, Andreas, 1987. On the possible existence of a

strange attractor for the Southern Oscillation. Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 60(1):34-47. Meteorol. Inst., Univ. Bonn, Auf dem Hugel 20, D-5300 Bonn, FRG.

87:5450 Hisard, Phillipe and Christian Hrnin, 1987. Re-

sponse of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean to the 1983-1984 wind from the Programme Fran~ais Ocean et Climat dans I'Atlantique Equatorial cruise data set. J. geophys. Res., 92(C4):3759- 3768.

Variations of the zonal pressure gradient (ZPG) and Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) at 34°30"W 6 30"E (October 1982-August 1984) are described. The large changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation during 1983-1984 (exceptional collapse of the trade winds in boreal winter 1984; unusually

(/I R ~ Iq87) 34 (I0) B. Marine Meteorology 823

deep 20°C isotherm depth in the Gulf of Guinea; near-zero value of the ZPG, and a doubling of the EUC) are hypothesized to be related to the sup- pression of the coastal Benguela Upwelling along the Namibia coast. Office de la Recherche Sci. et Tech. Outre-Mer, Montpellier, France.

87:5451 Inoue, Hisayuki, Yukio Sugimura and Katsuhiko

Fushimi, 1987. pCOz and 3n3C in the air and surface seawater in the western North Pacific. Tellus, 39B(1-2):228-242.

The distribution of pCO 2 in the surface seawater is low in the mid-latitudes and high in the equatorial region. During the El Nifio Event in 1982/83, the horizontal distribution of pCO 2 was greatly dis- turbed, with a relatively low temperature and a high pCO: level in the equatorial region in the western North Pacific. Surface seawater in the temperate zone shows a seasonal variation in pCO 2, low in winter and high in summer. It was found that pCO 2 in the air over the ocean decreases with distance from the Japanese islands, and south of 15°N it is nearly constant. Between 1982 and 1985, the 8~3C of CO, in the air south of 15°N decreased at 0.022_+0.006 ppt yr t and the pCO 2 increased at 1.11 _+ 0.04 ppm yr ~. Geochem. Lab., Meteorol. Res. Inst., Nagamine 1-1, Yatabe, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan.

87:5452 Kagan, B.A., V.A. Ryabchenko and A.S. Safray,

1986. Response of the ocean-atmosphere system to a doubling of the atmospheric COz content and its seasonal variability. Oceanology (a translation of Okeanologiia), 26(3):271-278.

A thermodynamic seasonal model of the ocean- atmosphere system was used to assess the effects of an atmospheric CO 2 doubling. Due to ocean damp- ing, little difference was seen between lower atmos- pheric temperatures in high and low latitudes. Shirshov Inst. of Oceanol., Leningrad Branch, Acad. of Sci., USSR. (gsb)

87:5453 Kamenkovich, V.M., Yu.M. Grachev and B.V.

Khar'kov, 1986. Forecasting synoptic motions in the POLYMODE region with a barotropic model. Oceanology (a translation of Okeanologiia), 26(3):279-283.

Forecasts of the synoptic eddy field obtained from a barotropic model (Apri l-May 1978), using observed initial field and humidity conditions, are analyzed. Shirshov Inst. of Oceanol., Acad. of Sci., Moscow, USSR.

87:5454 Koprov, B.M. and O.A. Kuznetsov, 1986. Meridional

variability of the characteristics of turbulent exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. Soy. Met. Hydrol. (a translation of Meteorologiya Gidrol.), 5:46-50.

Differential formulas with and without variability of the exchange coefficients are used to calculate turbulent fluxes, and an empirical formula is given to estimate total turbulent heat flux. (jrb)

87:5455 Luick, J.L., T.C. Royer and W.R. Johnson, 1987.

Coastal atmospheric forcing in the northern Gulf of Alaska. J. geophys. Res., 92(C4):3841-3848.

Measured winds were significantly weaker than calculated geostrophic winds; the latter required more than the standard 30% reduction to correct for frictional effects in the maritime boundary layer. An additional 11% is calculated based on principal axis analysis. A counterclockwise rotation of the in- stantaneous geostrophic wind vectors of 44 ° beyond the standard 15 ° was required to align them with those measured at a coastal weather station. How- ever, events in these two wind sets were well correlated throughout the year, and the rotary coherence was significant for frequencies lower than 0.895 cpd. Most of the seasonal variability in this coastal current is associated with wind changes. Freshwater discharge is also important in driving the alongshore baroclinic flow and a secondary cross- shelf flow. Inst. of Mar. Sci., Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.

87:5456 Romano, J.-C. and P. Laborde, 1987. Small-scale

spatial heterogeneity in accumulation structures of particulate material at sea-air interface. Ocean- ologica Acta, 10(1):63-71. (In French, English abstract.)

Accumulation processes are described by compar- ison of particulate matter from the surface micro- layer and underlying water in the neritic Gulf of Marseille and oceanic areas. Results indicate that under fixed meteorological conditions, accumulation processes will vary within a slick and between two slicks a few hundred meters apart. Within a given slick, heterogeneity of particulate matter distribution is not random and greatest accumulation occurs in the middle of the slick. Centre d'Oceanol, de Marseille, Station Mar. d 'Endoume, rue de la Batterie des Lions, 13007 Marseille, France.

87:5457 van Loon, H. and D.J. Shea, 1987. The Southern

824 B. Marine Meteorology ( ) I R 11987) 34 I llll

Oscillation. Part VI. Anomalies of sea level pressure on the Southern Hemisphere and of Pacific sea surface temperature during the development of a warm event. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(2):370-379.

The paper shows discrete, mean three-month anom- alies of sea-level pressure on the Southern Hemi- sphere the year before and the year of a Warm Event in the Southern Oscillation, together with associated SST anomalies in the South Pacific. The two sets of anomalies develop in parallel and logical sequence over the South Pacific in conjunction with changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Most of the Southern Hemisphere responds to the Southern Oscillation, but response is largest in the Australia- South Pacific sector, suggesting that the origin of the Southern Oscillation must be sought in this region. NCAR, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

87:5458 Weisberg, R.H. and T.Y. Tang, 1987. Further studies

on the response of the equatorial thermocline in the Atlantic Ocean to the seasonally varying trade winds. J. geophys. Res., 92(C4):3709-3727.

Upper ocean temperature data obtained during the SEQUAL and FOCAL experiments are used to describe thermocline along the Equator from Feb- ruary 1983 to September 1984. Rather than a slowly varying annual harmonic response implied by climatology, the authors show the annual cycle to consist of upwelling and downwelling (or conversely) sequences developing systematically and inhomo- genously along the Equator after rapid, large-scale changes in zonal wind stress. Dept. of Mar. Sci., Univ. of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA.

87:5459 Wichmann, Marion and Eberhard Schaller, 1986. A

48-hour second-order closure model simulation of the planetary boundary layer during PUKK [coastal climate project]. Meteorologische Rdsch., 39(6):196-202. Meteorol. Inst., Univ.of Bonn, Auf dem Hugel 20, D-5300 Bonn 1, FRG.

BI70. Circulation

87:5460 Kapitza, H. and H. Pamperin, 1986. A case study of

thermally induced secondary circulations during PUKK [coastal climate project]. Meteorologische Rdsch., 39(6):214-218. (In German, English abstract.)

Thermally induced secondary circulation during the project field phase is examined in a case study with pibals. Due to the small effect in this season (fall, 1981) an evaluation technique is used which sup- presses the synoptical part of wind variation. Uncertainties are caused by several factors: only single cases are considered and not appropriate ensembles; optical tracking of pibals might cause greater errors for the estimation of wind than RADAR-tracking, elpecially at night; and clouds set a limit to optical observation. Forschungszen- trum Geesthacht, Postfach 1160 D-2054 Geesthacht, FRG.

87:5461 Lau, K.M. and J.S. Boyle, 1987. Tropical and

extratropical forcing of the large-scale circulation: a diagnostic study. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(2): 400-428. Lab. for Atmos., NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.

87:5462 Plumb, R.A. and J.D. Mahlman, 1987. The zonally

averaged transport characteristics of the GFDL general circulation/transport model. J. atmos. Sci., 44(2):298-327. GFD Prog., Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.

87:5463 van Loon, H. and K. Labitzke, 1987. The Southern

Oscillation. Part V. The anomalies in the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in winter and a comparison with the quasi-biennial oscillation. Mon. Weath, Rev., 115(2):357-369. NCAR, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

B180. Winds

87:5464 Gutzler, D.S. and D.E. Harrison, 1987. The structure

and evolution of seasonal wind anomalies over the near-equatorial eastern Indian and western Pacif- ic oceans. Mon. Weath. Rev, 115(1):169-192.

The longitude-height-time evolution of seasonally averaged wind anomalies is examined using multi- year time series derived from eight rawinsonde stations. The dominant variability pattern on sea- sonal time scales is best described as a propagating oscillation; this space-time structure is confirmed using a complex empirical orthogonal function analysis, which indicates that over half the inter- seasonal zonal wind variance is associated with an eastward-propagating mode. The wind anomaly field

()1 R (P;87)34([0) B, Marine Meteorology 825

described evolves through a characteristic life cycle during E1 Nifio events, beginning before the onset of ocean surface warming in the eastern Pacific; the anomaly pattern then propagates eastward during the course of the event. Atmos. and Environ. Res., Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.

87:5465 Helmis, C.G., D.N. Asimakopoulos, D.G. Deligiorgi

and D.P. Lalas, 1987. Observations of sea-breeze fronts near the shoreline. Boundary-layer Met., 38(4):395-410.

Results from study of sea-breeze fronts, one with an offshore regional wind and one without, as they cross a shoreline are presented. Their structure is substantially different, the former being steeper and having stronger gradients. Measurements of the profiles of the vertical component of the wind speed, its standard deviation and the structure parameter for temperature are presented along with time series of the structure parameters for water vapor pressure and wind speed. Local equilibrium is re-established fairly quickly after passage of the front. Substantial differences have also been noted in the values of the structure parameters before and after the front, especially in the water vapor pressure and wind speed, differences which are of dissimilar magnitude and sign for the two kinds of fronts. Dept. of Phys., Univ. of Athens, Greece.

87:5466 Laude, H. and G. Tetzlaff, 1986. Maxima in the

vertical profiles of the wind velocity in the nocturnal and the morning boundary layer in the PUKK [coastal climate project] area. Meteoro- logische Rdsch., 39(6):218-224. (In German, English abstract.) Inst. fur Meterol. und Klimatol., Herrenhauserstr. 2, D-3000 Hannover 21, FRG.

87:5467 Mitchum, G.T., 1987. A bias in the satellite-observed

low-level cloud motion winds over the central tropical Pacific. J. geophys. Res., 92(C4):3861- 3865.

Island wind data are compared with satellite- observed low-level cloud motion winds over the same area to investigate the effect of gaps in the satellite wind series. The distribution of the gaps is such that the resulting time series is biased from the complete time series because of undersampling of the strongest westerly and northerly wind anomalies. This bias is strong enough to cause difficulties in estimating accurate mean fields from the cloud motion winds alone. The gaps leading to this bias can be attributed to the presence of heavy, high

cloud cover typical of strong convective events (wind anomalies are also strongest at these times). Hawaii Inst. of Geophys., Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96882, USA.

87:5468 Schmidt, Frank, 1987. On monsoon winds. Beitr.

Phys. Atmos., 60(1):12-21.

An attempt is made to explain monsoonal structures by mainly large-scale nonlinear barotropic dynam- ics, based on the barotropic vorticity equation. Orography has the form of a rotationally symmetric mountain. An initially zonal basic flow is modified by two versions of the orography; both force structures resemble aspects of the Indian summer monsoon. Meteorol. Inst., Univ. Munich, FRG.

BI90. Pressure gradients, air masses

87:5469 Davidson, N.E. and G.J. Holland, 1987. A diagnostic

analysis of two intense monsoon depressions over Australia. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(2):380-392. Bur. of Meteorol. Res. Centre, Melbourne, Australia.

87:5470 Hagemann, N. and G. Tetzlaff, 1986. The PUKK

[coastal climate project]-front. Meteorologische Rdsch., 39(6):224-233.

An atmospheric cold front passed over the study area during an intensive measuring phase of the experiment. The vertical structure of the front revealed differences in parameters such as temper- ature and humidity; a small region of very dry and relatively warm air behind the front resulted from lifting of the cold air mass, which caused conden- sation and precipitation (and produced heat). Mes- oscale wind patterns accompanied the front. Inst. fur Meterol. und Klimatol., Herrenhauserstr. 2, D-3000 Hannover 21, FRG.

87:5471 Keshishian, L.G. and L.F. Bosart, 1987. A case study

of extended east coast frontogenesis. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(1):100-117.

The frontogenetical process involves a weak cyclone which strengthens the preexisting temperature gra- dient as it moves northward. A moist baroclinic zone remains in place along the coast in the absence of strong cold advection in the wake of the weak cyclone. The residual moisture, enhanced baroclin- icity and surface vorticity are important factors

826 B. Marine Meteorology O I R i 19~7) 34 (1())

contributing to a second disturbance which inten- sifies as it moves northeastward parallel to the coast along the frontal zone. Dept. of Atmos. Sci., State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY 12222, USA.

B220. Waves

87:5472 Graves, C.E. and J.L. Stanford, 1987. Low-frequency

atmospheric oscillations over the southeastern Pacific. J. atmos. Sci., 44(1):260-264.

A 40-50 day atmospheric oscillation has recently been reported in the SE Pacific based on analyses of satellite-derived microwave brightness temperature data. Prior to this, such oscillations have not been generally recognized in this region. The purpose of this note is to provide corroboration of the micro- wave analyses from an independent dataset, four years of rawinsonde data from Easter Island (27°S, 109°W). Direct comparison of the 100 mb temper- ature perturbations and the microwave data shows good agreement. Physics Dept., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA 50011, USA.

87:5473 Tai, K.-S. and Yoshi Ogura, 1987. An observational

study of easterly waves over the eastern Pacific in the northern summer using FGGE data. J. atmos. Sci., 44(2):339-361.

FGGE Level III-b data and outgoing longwave radiation data are used to investigate relationships between deep cloud activity and large-scale mete- orological fields during the Northern Hemisphere summer of 1979. Power spectral analysis shows waves with periods of 4-6 days are stronger in July and August and active between 100°-130°W in the eastern Pacific and 130°-160°E in the western Pacific. The structure of easterly waves is similar to those of African waves observed in GATE Phase III and easterly waves in the western Pacific; however, the structure at upper levels lacks a distinct sec- ondary maxima of wave-related perturbations. The axis of strongest deep cloud activity and the surface wind confluence line exhibit seasonal variations; nonetheless, they are closely collocated and occur over the area of maximum SST. The data also suggest that barotropic instability alone cannot account for the formation of easterly waves in the eastern Pacific. Dept. of Atmos. Sci., Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.

B250. Clouds

87:5474 Cai, Xuezhan and Yixian Fu, 1985. Space-time

distribution of total cloud amount over Taiwan and its adjacent waters. Taiwan Strait, 4(I): 8-15. (In Chinese, English abstract.)

During the Northeast Monsoon total cloudiness is very different east and west of Taiwan's Central Mountains, but during the Southwest Monsoon cloudiness is uniform. Year-round cloudiness marks Hualian, presumably because of its proximity to the Kuroshio. Meteorol. Bur. of Fujian, Fuzhou, Peo- ple's Republic of China. (fcs)

87:5475 Duynkerke, P.G. and A.G.M. Driedonks, 1987. A

model for the turbulent structure of the strat- ocumulus-topped atmospheric boundary layer. J. atmos. Sci., 44(1):43-64. Free Univ., Amsterdam, Netherlands.

87:5476 Lutjeharms, J.R.E., R.D. Mey and I.T. Hunter, 1986.

Cloud lines over the Agulhas Current. S. Afr. J. Sci., 82:635-640.

Distinct cloud lines occur over warm boundary currents in the ocean, including the Agulhas Current. Satellite remote sensing enables more detailed study of the incidence of such cloud lines and their relationship to the actual disposition of the Agulhas Current. The analysis here includes a description of the synoptic weather conditions most conducive to cloud line formation. Natl. Res. Inst. for Oceanol., CSIR, P.O. Box 320, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa.

87:5477 Minnis, Patrick, E.F. Harrison and G.G. Gibson,

1987. Cloud cover over the equatorial eastern Pacific derived from July 1983 International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data using a hybrid bispectral threshold method. J. geophys. Res., 92(D4):4051-4073.

A set of cloud parameters comparable to those produced by the ISCCP is derived from GEOS data with one of the methods used in the initial cloud algorithm intercomparison. This technique, the hybrid bispectral threshold method (HBTM), has been modified in an attempt to improve its cloud parameter retrievals in the more difficult cloud conditions. The changes to the HBTM are described, and their potential impact on the results is discussed. Variations in the cloud parameters and the diurnal variability of cloud cover over the eastern equatorial

()1 R I It)N71 34 (1(}) B. Marine Meteorology 827

Pacific are also presented. Atmos. Sci. Div., NASA Langley Res. Center, Hampton, VA 23665, USA.

87:5478 Tag, P.M. and S.W. Payne, 1987. An examination of

the breakup of marine stratus. A three-dimen- sional numerical investigation. J. atmos. Sci., 44(1):208-223.

Cloud top entrainment instability as a mechanism for the breakup of marine stratus is examined with a 3-D planetary boundary layer model. The criterion developed by Randall and Deardorff, which states that stratus will break up if the equivalent potential temperature gradient at cloud top becomes less than a critical value is examined using a horizontally uniform stratus layer excited from above by small random temperature perturbations. Six cases, with different wind speeds and above-cloud soundings, produce different initial buoyancy instability ratios (BIR) and different breakup sequences. In general, a mean BIR greater than one is a necessary condition for stratus breakup; however the timing of breakup following achievement of the critical ratio is dif- ferent from run to run. It is concluded that an additional mechanism is necessary to stimulate vertical motion in order to take advantage of the cloud-top entrainment instability. Naval Environ. Prediction Res. Facility, Monterey, CA 93943, USA.

87:5479 Williams, Mark and R.A. Houze Jr., 1987. Satellite-

observed characteristics of winter monsoon cloud clusters. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(2):505-519. Bur. of Meteorol. Res. Center, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia.

B260. Fog 87:5480

Musson-Genon, Luc, 1987. Numerical simulation of a fog event with a one-dimensional boundary layer model. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(2):592-607.

The model describes the condensation processes at subgrid-scale, gravitational settling of fog droplets, their interactions with solar and thermal radiation, and transport associated with turbulent kinetic energy. The different parameterizations used are simple, aimed at operational forecasting. Computed results are compared to measurements of an actual fog event. The model seems able to describe fog evolution from appearance to disappearance. Sen- sitivity to thermal cooling, gravitational settling velocity and initial data is described together with the usefulness of subgrid-scale parameterization. Direction de la Meteorol. SCEM/Previ-Dev, 92100 Boulogne, France.

B270. Precipitation

87:5481 Kalb, M.W., 1987. The role of convective parame-

terization in the simulation of a Gulf Coast precipitation system. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(1): 214-234.

The importance of convective parameterization in meso-alpha-scale numerical prediction models is examined (focusing on mesoscale model simulations which differ only in terms of explicit vs. parame- terized representations of cumulus convection) for a case study of the Gulf Coast precipitation system of 6-7 March 1982. The performance of the three model simulations used in reproducing observed precipitation events and related dynamics provides a measure of the adequacy of both a parameterized and explicit approach for incorporating latent heat release and vertical heat transport in convectively driven circulations into a meso-alpha-scale numer- ical model. Univ. Space Res. Assoc., Atmos. Sci. Div., NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Hunts- ville, AL 35812, USA.

B280. Storms, disturbances, cyclones, etc.

87:5482 Bender, M.A., R.E. Tuleya and Yoshio Kurihara,

1987. A numerical study of the effect of island terrain on tropical cyclones. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(I):130-155.

The present study is a continuation of earlier work on idealized numerical simulations of the landfall of tropical cyclones; it addresses the question of how much the effects of an idealized mountain range parallel to the shore can be generalized by the introduction of more realistic topographical distri- butions. Results obtained are compared with ob- served storms. GFD Lab., NOAA, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.

87:5483 Burfeind, C.R., J.A. Weinman and B.R. Barkstrom,

1987. A preliminary computer pattern analysis of satellite images of mature extratropicai cyclones. Mort. Weath. Rev., 115(2):556-563.

Computerized pattern analysis techniques depicted features of several mature extratropical cyclones, including the location of the center of the cyclone vortex core and the location of the associated occluded front. The cyclone type was classified in accord with the scheme of Troup and Streten.

828 B. Marine Meteorology ()1 R I 1~,~7~ 34 110~

Analysis was implemented on a personal computer; results were obtained within approximately one or two minutes without the intervention of an analyst. Dept. of Meteorol., Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA.

87:5484 Chen, G.T.J., Y.J. Wang and C.-P. Chang, 1987.

Evaluation of the surface prognoses of cyclones and anticyclones of the JMA and FNOC models over East Asia and the western Pacific during the 19113 Mei--Yu season. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(1): 235-250.

This study compares the systematic errors of 36-h surface cyclone and anticyclone forecasts for the two numerical weather prediction models. All available 0000 and 1200 GMT forecast runs are evaluated against an independent dataset of subjective analysis produced operationally. The mean position errors, mean central pressure errors and forecast skill indices for both cyclones and anticyclones in the models are examined. Dept. of Atmos. Sci., Natl. Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan.

87:5485 Chen, S.-J. and Lorenzo Dell'Osso, 1987. A numer-

ical case study of East Asian coastal cyclogenesis. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(2):477-487.

Relative importance of latent heat release and surface sensible heat flux were investigated by numerical experiments with the ECMWF limited- area model. In the experiment without latent heat feedback, only a shallow low appeared when the upper short-wave trough approached the inverted surface trough situated on the coast, but no further development took place, which suggests that the baroclinic forcing was enhanced by the feedback of physical processes. Without sensible heating, the model latent heat release was reduced, and the results from the experiment without sensible and latent heating indicate that the impact of sensible heating was partly through the moist process rather than direct heating. Dept. of Geophys., Peking Univ., Beijing, People's Republic of China.

87:5486 Colucci, S.J., 1987. Comparative diagnosis of blocking

versus nonbiocking planetary-scale circulation changes during synoptic-scale cyclogenesis. J. atmos. Sci., 44(1):124-139.

A 17-day period in November 1980 is investigated to obtain insight into differing large-scale 500 mb circulation during three consecutive synoptic-scale cyclone events. Quasi-geostrophic model diagnosis reveals that during the first two (blocking) events the

large-scale waves are reinforced by relatively large and spatiotemporally persistent transports of poten- tial vorticity associated with 500 mb synoptic-scale waves linked with the surface cyclones. In the nonblocking event, the potential vorticity transports at 500 mb near the surface cyclones are relatively large but not spatially or temporally persistent. Dept. of Environ. Sci., Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA.

87:5487 Emanuel, K.A., 1987. The dependence of hurricane

intensity on climate. Nature, Lond., 326(6112): 483-485.

It is of practical as well as scientific interest to estimate the changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity that might result from short-term man-induced alterations of the climate. A simple Carnot cycle model is used to estimate the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones under the somewhat warmer conditions expected to result from increased atmospheric CO2 content. Estimates based on Au- gust mean conditions over the tropical oceans predicted by a general circulation model with twice the present CO, content yield a 40-50% increase in the destructive potential of hurricanes. Center for Meteorol. and Physical Oceanogr., MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.

87:5488 Hayes, J.L., R.T. Williams and M.A. Rennick, 1987.

Lee cyclogenesis. Part I. Analytic studies. J. atmos. Sci., 44(2):432-442. Headqtrs, Air Weath- er Service/DNX, Scott Air Force Base. IL, USA.

87:5489 Keeling, C.D. and U. Siegenthaler (guest editors),

1987. International conference on atmospheric carbon dioxide, its sources, sinks and global transport. Special issue. Tellus, 39B(l-2):242pp; 23 papers.

The agenda covered the following main subjects: analysis of atmospheric CO 2 data, with emphasis on Northern and Southern Hemisphere surface sta- tions; isotopic measurement of atmospheric CO2; CO. measurements from air in ice cores; terrestrial biospheric carbon cycle--data and modelling; air- sea interaction in the global carbon cycle; and carbon cycle modelling--oceanic aspects of 3- dimensional atmospheric models. CO, topics of continuing strong interest are the concentration changes in time on different time scales-~lay- to-day, seasonal, and interannual, and the anthro- pogenic increase about which analyses on ice cores have provided valuable information. The existing CO_~ monitoring stations now cover the whole globe

()1 R (loST) 34 ~lt)) B. Marine Meteorolog} 829

sufficiently well to permit a global analysis of CO~ concentration data.

87:5490 Moore, G.W.K. and W.R. Peltier, 1987. Cyclogenesis

in frontal zones. J. atmos. Sci., 44(2):384-409.

Localized baroclinic zones in the atmosphere are unstable to disturbances with wavelengths of ~ 1000 km. To understand the processes which generate these disturbances, a 2-D baroclinic zone is tested for stability against small amplitude 3-D pertur- bations. The fronts are found to be highly unstable; the fastest growing disturbances compatible with an origin through secondary longwave instability are those with horizontal length scales of ~1000 km. The energetics of these disturbances demonstrate that they grow by a new 'cyclone-scale' mode of baroclinic instability. The most unstable distur- bances have many structural features in common with Bjerknes' model of polar-front cyclones. There is also evidence that the incipient disturbance may eventually become unstable to moist convective instability located where prefrontal squall lines occur. Dept. of Phys., Univ. of Toronto, ON M5S 1A7, Canada.

87:5491 Motoki, Toshihiro and Kenji Shimada, 1986. Vari-

ations in the transition process from the tropical depression to the tropical storm-observed by the GMS [Geostationary Meteorological Satellite]. Geophys. Mag., 42(1):19-39.

GMS data from six episodes of transition from tropical depression to tropical storm from 1982-1983 (obtained during TOPEX) are used to describe equivalent black body temperature (TBB) field and satellite wind field changes. Orb)

87:5492 Rao, V.B. and J.P. Bonatti, 1987. On the origin of

upper tropospheric cyclonic vortices in the South Atlantic Ocean and adjoining Brazil during the summer. Met. atmos. Phys., 37(1):11-16.

Calculations of the barotropic energy exchange term based on observations indicated that in the mean, and during some days, zonal kinetic energy gets converted into eddy kinetic energy. This suggests the occurrence of barotropic instability. Examination of zonal winds for barotropic instability, however, revealed weak growth rates. Thus other mechanisms such as condensation heating, the formation of cyclonic centers downstream of the Bolivian high, and middle latitude coupling might also be impor- tant. Inst. de Pesquisas Espaciais-INPE, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil.

87:5493 Rotunno, Richard and K.A. Emanuel, 1987. An

air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part |I. Evolutionary study using a nonhy- drostatic axisymmetric numerical model. J. atmos. Sci., 44(3):542-561.

In Part I of this study an analytical model for a steady-state tropical cyclone is constructed on the assumption that boundary-layer air parcels are conditionally neutral to displacements along the angular momentum surfaces of the hurricane vortex. The hypothesis put forward, based on the steady- state theory, is that the truly important thermo- dynamic interaction, even in the developing stage, is between vortex and ocean (as distinct from vortex and convection sustained by preexisting conditional instability as in the CISK theory) with cumulus convection rapidly redistributing heat acquired at the oceanic source upward and outward to the upper tropospheric sink. In this view, it is not the organization of convection that is needed per se, but the organization of surface heat flux. Numerical experiments designed to examine this idea show that as a result of a finite-amplitude air-sea interaction instability a hurricane-like vortex may indeed am- plify in an atmosphere which is neutral to cumulus convection and attain an intensity and structure which are in excellent agreement with the theoretical predictions of Part I. NCAR, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

B310. Chemistry

87:5494 Bazhanov, V.M. and V.N. Petrov, 1986. Ozone

content in the surface atmosphere of the North Atlantic. Soy. Met. Hydrol. (a translation of Meteorologiya GidroL), 6:40-45.

Air mass transport analyses and measurements of ozone, :-~-~Rn, and 7Be in the surface layer of the atmosphere over the North Atlantic revealed that most of the summer ozone in this layer is a product of tropospheric physicochemical reactions influ- enced by weather. The stratosphere, which has been considered a potentially important source of tro- pospheric ozone is shown to have little impact in this region in terms of both origin and transport of ozone. (gsb)

87:5495 Khrgian, A.Kh., 1986. Study of atmospheric ozone

today and tomorrow. Soy. Met. HydroL (a trans- lation of Meteorologiya Gidrol.), 5:103-111.

830 B. Marine Meteorology ( ) IR 119~7) 34 I II)1

Surface and satellite observation methods are dis- cussed, including Dobson and Breuer spectropho- tometry, BUV and MFR, and global distribution patterns are reviewed. The general increase in ozone, the unique tropical pattern, and surprising lack of influence of baric regions on oceanic ozone are addressed, as are ozone transport (especially La- grangian transport) and the effects of solar activity. Advances in ozone photochemistry and the role of biogenic oceanic emissions are also reported. (gsb)

B320. Particulates (dust, aerosols, etc.)

87:5496 Clarke, A.D., N.C. Ahlquist and D.S. Covert, 1987.

The Pacific marine aerosol: evidence for natural acid sulfates. J. geophys. Res., 92(D4):4179-4190.

In the fall of 1983 and spring of 1984, a ubiquitous accumulation mode atmospheric aerosol showed marked increases in the region of equatorial up- welling between Hawaii and Tahiti. Changes in aerosol size distribution in response to thermal conditioning revealed properties consistent with those of sulfuric acid and ammonium sulfate/bi- sulfate. Changes in apparent acidity of the accu- mulation mode varied in conjunction with physical and chemical properties of the region sampled, while the number concentration suggests that it is the dominant and possibly limiting aerosol for cloud condensation nuclei in the remote central Pacific. Hawaii Inst. of Geophys., Univ. of Hawaii, 2525 Correa Rd., Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.

87:5497 Flament, P., A. Lepr~tre and S. Noel, 1987. Coastal

aerosols in the northern [Englishl Channel. Oceanologica Acta, 10(i):49-61. (In French, English abstract.)

Statistical analysis of eighteen samples collected on the shore or 5 km offshore show large distortions in the granulometric profiles of elements having a marine or wind-eroded soil origin (Na and A1 respectively); anthropogenically-generated particles have typical behaviors. The atmospheric input of Mn appears independent of other trace elements and may be attributed to a single emission source. Pb, Fe, Zn, and small Cu particles are mainly related to another emission point. Coarse copper stands apart in being associated with wind directions within a marine sector. Total elemental concentrations are compared with literature data, and except for Mn, are similar in magnitude to those observed by others. Size distributions for each element agree with Whitby's model. Lab. de Chimie Analytique et Mar., C8, Univ. des Sci. et Tech. de Lille, 59655 Vil- leneuve-d'Ascq Cedex, France.

87:5498 von Hoyningen-Huene, W. and A. Raabe, 1987.

Maritime and continental air mass differences in optical aerosol extinction data. Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 60(I):8 i-87.

Aerosol optical thickness measurements were made along a North Sea-NE Atlantic transect with a spectral radiometer (in the wavelength range 0.35- 1.055 /tm). Maritime and continental air masses exhibited distinct spectra related to nearly neutral and slightly anomalous aerosol extinction with increasing wavelength and to the power law spectra of optical thickness, respectively. Both air mass origin and processes occurring during transport are important in determining the optical characteristics of the atmosphere. Karl Marx Univ. Leipzig, Sektion Physik, Talstrasse 35, DDR-7010 Leipzig, DRG. (gsb)

13350. Pollution (see also C210-Chemical pollution, E300--Effects of pollution, F250- Waste disposal)

87:5499 Castro, M.S. and F.E. Dierberg, 1987. Biogenic

hydrogen sulfide emissions from selected Florida wetlands. War. Air Soil Pollut., 33(1-2):1-13.

Sulfur emissions (as HIS ) from enclosed sections of 'typical' Florida wetlands (cypress swamp, riverine marsh, mangrove, and saltwater marsh) were meas- ured fluorometrically and ranged from 0.001-0.272 g S m 2 yr ~. These data were used to estimate total biogenic S emission from Florida wetlands (1.8 × 10~-3.0 × l0 ~ g/yr). The authors concluded that this does not represent a significant fraction of the state's atmospheric S burden and that biogenic input would affect only local acid deposition. Dierberg: Dept. of Environ. Sci. and Engng, Florida Inst. of Tech., Melbourne, FL 32901, USA. (gsb)

87:5500 Kavanaugh, Michael, 1987. Estimates of future COz,

N20 and NO, emissions from energy combustion. Atmos. Environ., 21(3):463-468. 4015 Benton St. NW, Washington, DC 20007, USA.

B380. Forecasting

87:5501 Baker, W.E. et al., 1987. Experiments with a

three-dimensional statistical objective analysis scheme using FGGE data. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(1):272-296.

t)l R ! 1~)~7) 34/ l l ) ) B. Marine Meteorology 831

An optimum interpolation scheme (O1) has been developed for use in numerical weather prediction studies. Some novel aspects include (1) a multi- variate surface analysis over the oceans, which employs an Ekman balance instead of the usual geostrophic relationship, to model the pressure-wind error cross correlations, and (2) the capability to use an error correlation function which is geographically dependent. A series of 4-day data assimilation experiments examined the importance of some of the key features of the OI in terms of their effects on forecast skill, as well as comparing the forecast skill using the OI with that utilizing a successive correc- tion method of analysis developed earlier. Lab. for Atmos., NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.

87:5504 Krishnamurti, T.N., Arun Kumar and Xiang Li,

1987. Results of extensive integrations with simple NWP models over the tropics during FGGE. Tellus, 39A:152-160.

Results from 980 forecast experiments made with two high-resolution regional models based on con- servation of absolute vorticity (a streamfunction barotropic model) and of potential vorticity (the shallow water equations with bottom topography) are summarized. The models are applied to a number of different domains (winter and summer monsoons over several regions) and show varying skill over the different domains. State Univ., Tal- lahassee, FL 32306, USA.

87:5502 German, V.Kh. and A.V. Saveryev, 1986. Estimation

of storm surges in the Sea of Okhotsk by the spectral regression method. Oceanology (a trans- lation of Okeanologiia), 26(3):305-309. State Oceanogr. Inst., Moscow, USSR.

87:5503 Kalnay, Eugenia and Amnon Dalcher, 1987. Fore-

casting forecast skill. Mon. Weath. Rev., 115(2): 349-356.

It is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts using as predictor the dispersion between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses previously derived for satellite data impact studies. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was poor, because such large areas usually contain regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. When we used re- gional verifications, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of individual forecasts. The period covered in this study is only one month, but includes cases with wide variation of skill in each of the four regions considered. The method could be tested in an operational context using ensembles of lagged forecasts and longer time periods to test its appli- cability to different areas and weather regimes. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.

B440. Books, collections (general)

87:5505 Heymsfield, Andrew, Albert Arking, Kuo-Nan Liou

and James Coakley (guest editors), 1987. Special section: Symposium on clouds and radiation. J. geophys. Res., 92(D4):3971-4150; 14 papers.

This group of papers focuses on the role of clouds in the Earth's energy budget, including the effect of clouds on radiation (transmission, absorption, al- bedo); remote sensing (Nimbus 7, GOES, HIRS2/ MSU); and the use of Earth radiation budgets in climate research. (gsb)

B450. Miscellaneous

87:5506 Romov, A.I., 1986. Waterspout formation. Soy. Met.

HydroL (a translation of Meteorologiya Gidrol.), 5:8-15.

This paper uses the vortex equation to refine the factors of spout formation with respect to various hypotheses and establishes a physical mechanism for the genesis of vortices with vertical axes in storm clouds. Orb)