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10th January 2018

Issue 109Maritime Intelligence Report Series

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“Making the world a safer place to live and work”

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The Maritime Intelligence Report Series focuses on:

• Operational risks in areas of instability which could affect the safety of commercial and private vessels and personnel ashore and at sea.

• In country reporting on key countries where civil conflict are directly impacting on maritime opera-tions; and

• Reporting and analysis of incidents of terrorism, pi-racy and other related criminal activity. MAST has a global reach and presence, delivering first hand, accurate and exclusive intelligence. MAST is entrenched and committed in continuing to supportand promote the awareness of the very real risks thatseafarers and other stakeholders face. This Intelligence Report Series is a brief snapshot ofMAST’s Intelligence capabilities. MAST Intelligencespecialises in providing clients with a suite of prod-ucts and services, including; political and economic risk analysis, detailed port and vessel security briefs, vessel passage plans, threat and risk mitigation and travel risk management. Working closely in conjunction with a host of experts,MAST Intelligence offers a market leading service pertaining to all maritime affairs.

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Editor: David Riderwww.mast-security.com

Issue 109 of the series reviews, analyses and threat assesses the fragile and conflict af-fected coastal states Libya, Somalia and Yemen. The Mediterranean migrant crisis, incidents affecting maritime security and influencing maritime news are also reported and analysed, focusing on the keys theatres of maritime instability.

“Making the world a safer place to live and work”

Issue 109

Contents:

Mast Services

Indian Ocean region

Somalia

Yemen

Yemen Ports

Mediterranean

Libya

Gulf of Guinea

South East Asia

Central & South America

Severe Weather Warnings

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10th January 2018

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“Making the world a safer place to live and work”

Indian Ocean Region Cruise traffic is on the rise again at the port of Mombasa, Kenya. Four boutique ships have arrived since October, including the Silver Spirit, the Fulk Al Salamah, and the Nautica, which returned for a second visit on Thursday. One additional vessel canceled a call on November 3 due to the political unrest sur-rounding Kenya’s presidential election, according to Kenya Ports Authority spokesman Haji Masemo.

Incidents: 1, MV reported suspicious skiffs between 0815-0830 UTC in position 12:31N - 043:29.10E, Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Vessel ap-proached by 2 skiffs. 5 POB on each with faces obscured. Skiffs aborted approach at 3 cables seemingly due to rough seas. Reported (UKMTO) 9th Jan.

2. Information received from three separate MVs in an area centred on position 14:46N - 041:58E, Southern Red Sea over last 12hrs. MVs were approached to within 1 cable by up to three 7-10m rigid grey-hulled boats with up to 6 armed POB in each. None of the MVs were attacked; vessels safe. Reported (UKMTO) 6th Jan.

Certain powers funding Somalia pirates to undermine Iran economyIran’s Navy Commander Khanzadi has claimed Somalia piracy is a “kind of terrorism formed in 2007 by proxy in a bid to under-mine the Islamic Republic’s economy”. Navy Commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi went on to add that certain pow-ers are supplying Somalia pirates with intelligence and equip-ment, and funding them in a bid to undermine the economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Second huge drug haul for CMFFollowing a massive drug seizure in late December, HMAS Warramunga, with the aid of the helicopter from RFA Fort Ro-salie, intercepted a dhow carrying 3.5 tonnes of illegal narcot-ics in the Arabian Gulf, CMF stated on Jan. 5th.

Anti-piracy mission helps China develop its blue-water navySince the beginning of its anti-piracy operation, the PLAN has escorted more than 6,400 Chinese and foreign ships, accord-ing to China Military, the PLA’s official English-language web-site. What’s more, the Chinese navy has so far prevented about 3,000 suspected pirate boats from launching attacks, UN Sec-retary General Antonio Guterres said in a report last October.

To see MAST’s services in the Indian Ocean Region, please click here.

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SomaliaKenya could be forced to compensate Somalia over oil exploration in a disputed sea area if the neigh-bouring country wins a case being adjudicated at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The case lodged by Somalia on August 28th, 2014 is set to gain full steam after Kenya lost preliminary objec-tions last year. The government was then required to file a substantive response to the main case in December last year, according to Kenyan media outlets.

Control of Somali territory (March 2017) Source: Wikimedia Commons

Somaliland/Puntland dispute worsensSomaliland forces captured Tukaraq town in Sool region, northern Somalia from Puntland forces on Jan. 8th. Sool is a region disputed by Puntland and Somaliland.

Puntland and Galmudug talks bear fruitPuntland and Galmudug State leaders will complete a new power-sharing agreement for the administration of Galkayo city in the near term, according to Somali National Army (SNA) commander General Abdiweli Jama Gorod.

Somalia calls for accelerated debt relief to fight terrorismThe Financial Times reports that Somalia’s prime minister has called on multilateral lenders to accelerate the debt-forgive-ness process so that the country can access funds to fight ter-rorism and its underlying causes. The country is around (US) $4 billion in arrears.

Turkey Gives Weapons to Somali SoldiersSomali State Minister for Defense Mohamed Ali Haga has con-

firmed to VOA Somali for the first time that the Turkish govern-ment has recently supplied weapons to the Somali army.

2 Al Shabaab militants killed in U.S. airstrikeThe U.S. military killed two al-Shabaab terrorists and destroyed an explosives-laden vehicle in an airstrike in Somalia, the U.S. Africa Command said in a statement released on Wednesday Jan. 3rd.

5 Kenyan Policemen Killed in AmbushFive Kenyan police officers are dead after their vehicle was at-tacked by members of the Somalia-based al-Shabab militant group Wednesday 3rd. Officials say three police reservists and two senior officers were killed as they were traveling in the northern county of Mandera, near the border with Somalia.

AnalysisAl Shabaab continues to mount operations against civilian and military targets in Somalia, seizing military bases and equipment before being driven off by AMISOM forces, despite combined ac-tion against them from Somali, African Union and US forces. Threat AssessmentSomalia held Presidential elections in February 2017. After a peaceful transition of power, Somalia continues to face familiar problems. Al Shabaab frequently ambushes AMISOM and local security forces denying any significant process to the shaping of a stable country which is vital before Somalia can tackle humani-tarian and economic issues. Somalia is recovering from a severe drought which led to widespread famine with an identified 2.9 million people facing food insecurity. Youth unemployment in Somalia has not improved with 67% of Somali male youths aged between 14 to 29 unemployed. Pirate financiers offer lucrative and attractive opportunities, and were seen to be increasingly ac-tive in the last inter-monsoon period. Somalia continues to be a permissive location for kidnap and ransom piracy operations. So-malia has both an EU and UN arms embargo in place under UN-SCR Resolution 2317 in place until November 15th 2018. The on-going threat to shipping in the region has been made clear by the military bodies which monitor the region. A lack of adherence to BMP4 protocol, particularly not maintaining a safe distance off the coast, has increased risks to shipping. BMP4 advises: “non-Somali fishing vessels should avoid operating or transiting within 200nm of the coast of Somalia, irrespective of whether or not they have been issued with license to do so”. Merchant vessels would be wise to maintain the same distance from the coast, particularly ensuring that the Socotra Gap isn’t taken. All vessels are advised to update risk assessments and register with UKMTO/MSCHOA prior to entering the Indian Ocean High Risk Area.

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Under control of Al Shabaab and allies Under control of neutral forces Under control of Government and allies Somaliland Government Territory disputed by Puntland and Somaliland

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Control of Yemen territory (January 8th 2018)

Source: Wikimedia Commons

YemenThe United Nations envoy to Yemen, Esmail Ould Shaikh Ahmad, has sent his deputy to Sana’a to try and convince Al Houthis to join peace talks with the internationally-recognised government, as the Iran-backed rebels boycott him. Al Houthis refused to deal with Ould Shaikh Ahmad after accusing him of “siding” with the Saudi-led coalition.

Threat Assessment Yemen’s civil war shows no sign of abating. Following the death of Saleh, Sadeq Amin Abou Rass, a former agriculture minister, has succeeded him as leader of the General People’s Congress (GPC), which controls the non-Houthi fighters. How-ever, there are still hopes within the Saudi-led coalition that the GPC can be convinced to join them against Houthi rebels. Little real movement has been seen on the ground over the last few months, with the coalition slowly moving towards Ho-deidah, still controlled by Houthi forces. Food and fuel shortages remain a huge issue, as both the Hou-this and coalition accuse each other of slowing aid supplies to the country. While some ports have re-opened, there remains an urgent need to speed up relief efforts. Houthi rebels have continued their attempts to strike Saudi targets with ballistic missiles, with liimited success. There have been no new re-ports of mining attempts in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but there has been an increase in the number of suspicious approaches on merchant vessels in these waters, prompting UKMTO to is-sue a warning on Jan. 6th (please see our Indian Ocean page for details). Not entirely surprisingly the conflict has spilt into the mari-time domain. The main protagonists have been the Houthi rebels and they have been remarkably successful at tar-geting warships and auxiliary vessels with missiles, an-ti-tank rockets and remotely controlled boats laden with explosives. While it is possible that a commercial vessel could fall victim to poor targeting the most worrying development is the deployment of sea mines by the Houthis in the entrances to harbours. We believe these have been locally manufac-tured and the clear and present danger is that any that are not identified and removed by the Saudi forces will in time break

free from their moorings and drift. While there is little cause for concern right now, this is something we will be watching closely for in the coming months.The terrorist threat, likely to be led by AQAP, has been dem-onstrated against LNGC Galicia Spirit in October 2016 and MT Muskie in May 2017. Both were attempted but failed attacks which occurred in the BAM and were against fuel laden ves-sels. The intent of the attacks was to detonate a bomb either on or alongside the target vessel in order to cause a spec-tacular and/or considerable environmental damage which would detrimentally affect navigation through the strait. Offi-cial reports on the Galicia Spirit detail evidence of attempted boarding and substantial damage to the hull and superstruc-ture of the vessel. The bomb detonated prematurely and was supported by RPG and small arms fire. Similarly, the second attempt on the MT Muskie failed. It is feasible that a similar at-tack will be attempted in the future.Advice from the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), recom-mends that merchant traffic transiting the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea are advised to pass through the area between 44 00 East in the Gulf of Aden and 13 00 N in the Southern Red Sea during the hours of darkness and exit the Traffic Separation Scheme to the West of the Hanish Islands in daylight hours. The frequency of these incidents, where vessels are ap-proached and in some cases attacked by armed men in small boats, indicates that the threat assessment remains ‘Substan-tial’ – an attack is a strong possibility. The recent threat by Hou-tis to target oil tankers should not be ignored by CSOs and Masters.

MAST recommends BMP measures be enforced and watches strengthened during transits in the region.

Houthi

Pro Hadi Government Forces

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

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UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism for Yemen (UNVIM)

The UN’s Secretary-General has decided to institute a UNVIM for the facilitation of commercial imports to Yemen, at the re-quest of the Government of the Republic of Yemen and in line with Security Council resolution 2216 (2015).

UNVIM is operational with immediate effect. Shipping companies or vessel owners shipping commercial goods or services to any port not under the direct control of the Government of Yemen (Salif, Mokha, Hudaydah and associated oil terminals) need to apply for permits upon departure of the port of origin of their cargo. For further details click here.

UN arms embargo imposed by UN Security Council Resolution 2216 of 2015 is in place.

Port Aden:

• The port of Aden is under the protection of the Republic of Yemen security forces.

• Merchant vessels wishing to enter Yemeni ports must first apply for a permit through the Yemeni Ministry of Transportation; contact: yemen.transport@gmail.com for more information.

• Final clearance to enter Yemeni ports (with permits in place) is authenticated by the coalition guard ship.

• Ash Shihr Oil Terminal: Fully operational.

• Port of Nishtun: Fully operational.

• Port of Hodeidah: Fully operational.

• Port of Al Mukalla: Fully operational.

• Port of Saleef: Closed.

• Port of Mokha: Closed.

• Port of Balhaf: Closed.

• Ras Isa Marine Terminal (FSO): Closed.

• Ras Isa Petroleum Products Reception Facility: Closed.

Yemen PortsRussia Today (RT) reports that despite the lifting of the Saudi blockade on Hodeidah port, the port remains empty. No merchant or relief vessels are seen anchored at its harbor and no much-needed aid is flowing into the country suffering from a humanitarian catastrophe. The port manager confirmed to RT Arabic that the sea-hub had processed only two vessels that had old permits. The blockade, he said, is till very much in effect.

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Mediterranean Slightly fewer than half as many migrants reached Europe by sea in 2017 than 2016, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said on Friday 5th, with curbs finally cutting traffic on the deadly route from Libya to Italy. Two years after more than a million people entered the EU, mostly fleeing war in the Middle East and poverty in Africa, the IOM recorded 171,635 arrivals by boat in 2017. The 2016 figure was 363,504.

At least 56 people missing after shipwreck near SicilyAt least 56 people went missing after a shipwreck near the Italian island of Sicily, the Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF, also known as Doctors Without Borders) non-governmental organization said on Monday 8th,

Migrants drown as dinghy sinks off Libya coastAt least 64 migrants have drowned and 86 have been res-cued after a rubber dinghy sank off the coast of Libya on Sat-urday 6th, the Italian coastguard said. Dozens of others might still be missing, the Spanish rescue charity Proactiva Open Arms said. Other NGO groups suggest that the death toll may be as high as 25.

Nearly 300 immigrants rescued off Libyan coastLibyan naval rescued 297 illegal immigrants on Sunday and recovered two bodies off the coast of the western city of Gar-rabulli, some 60 km east of the capital Tripoli. “A navy patrol rescued 297 illegal immigrants off the coast of the city of Gar-rabulli. They were on two rubber boats tens of miles north of the city,” Ayob Qassem, Libyan navy spokesman, told Xinhua.

IOM: 3116 migrants died in the Mediterranean in 20173116 migrants died trying to reach Europe via the Mediter-ranean in 2017, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports. The IOM added Friday that despite the trag-ic number of deaths of migrants, but the number dropped sharply compared to the last few years.

The current migrant smuggling situationThe start of 2018 has seen another increase in attempted cross-ings, once again highlighting the fact that efforts on shore in Libya to stop smugglers appear to be faltering. Poor weather and over-crowded boats have once again seen a significant loss of life in the past week, as the Italian and Libyan Coast Guard, in conjunction with NGO rescue missions, have struggled to rescue as many migrants as possible from the sea. Weather reports suggest that calmer seas will see another spike in crossing attempts this week, which will once again stretch rescuers. EU efforts to deter migrants crossing in to Libya have yet to bear fruit, while the African Union will hold a meeting of foreign min-isters this week in an effort to help stem the flow of African mi-grants attempting to cross in to Europe.

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Migrant crossings 2015-2017. Source: UNHRC

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Map depicting major migrant routes in the Mediterranean (Jan. 9th 2018). Source: UNHRC

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LibyaLibya’s oil revenues have more than tripled in 2017 despite violence and political instability, according to figures released on Friday by the central bank. Despite revenues surging to $14 billion (12 billion eu-ros) in 2017, up from $4.8 billion the previous year, Friday’s figures fall far short of the $50 billion Libyan crude sales earned before Gadaffi’s ouster. In 2017, production surged again to over one million barrels per day, slashing a record 2016 budget deficit by half to $7.7 billion in 2017, the central bank said.

“Making the world a safer place to live and work”

Armed groups clash at key Libya border postArmed groups clashed Friday 5th in western Libya, forcing the closure of a key border crossing with Tunisia, an official and a military commander said. The unity government force’s com-mander Osama Jouili, who served as Libya’s defence minister after Kadhafi’s fall, confirmed the offensive had taken place in an attempt to wrest control of the area from militia groups.

AnalysisOil production in 2017 helped lower the country’s financial de-fecit by 48%, according to figures released by the Central Bank of Libya on Jan. 6th. The continuing production stream is cru-cial to the country’s economic recovery. To that end, the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC), announced on Jan. 8th that it was calling for the reopening of the Ras Lanuf crude oil refinery, after the NOC won two arbitration cases against the Libyan Emirati Refinery Company (LERCO) and Trasta, the owner and operator of the refinery. The case, heard at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris on Friday 5th, also saw the NOC awarded US$116 million. It is hoped that the refinery will come back on line in the second half of 2018.The political landscape continues to be a cause for concern, however. This week, Saif Al-Islam, son of former dictator, Mua-mmar Gaddafi, announced his intention of running for presi-dent. Local reports suggest he has significant support from a number of tribes in the country, but the international commu-nity is naturally not keen on his return, given the potential for civil unrest and public anger. The suggestion in Libya is that the current peace negotiations have reached a dead end, with Khalifa Haftar’s hopes of being elected into power apparently faltering. His position has be-come more entrenched in recent weeks, and he dismissed the news about a potential bid by Gaddafi. More worryingly, Haftar told media sources that: “Libya is not ready yet for democracy,” adding that the upcoming elections in the country must bring a solution to the current bloodshed, but, “if the situation and

the chaos that is going on now continue after the elections, then we will say enough is enough and take action,” The im-plicit threat of further military action by his forces should be taken seriously by the EU and others, who have courted Haftar but failed to deliver anything of substance to placate him. Ports currently operational in Libya are: Benghazi, Zawiyah, Tripoli, Misrata, Marsa El Brega, Tobruk, Al Khoms, Marsa El Hariga. Farwah, Bouri, Zuwarah, Zuetina and Es Sider.Threat AssessmentOngoing issues with terminal safety remain an issue for the National Oil Company and Haftar’s forces who control the oil crescent. This situation is unlikely to change in the near future, particularly with the current militia fighting around Sabratha and Melittah and potential to spill over into oil pipeline attacks. 2017 saw several vessels seized by Libyan Coast Guard and Navy elements who accused them of smuggling or entering the country’s TTW illegally.The incidents underline the extremely dangerous nature of Libyan waters and vessels should ensure they have the cor-rect permission from the appropriate authority before entering. At the time of this report, at least one vessel remains under arrest for illegal fishing and tanker traffic is likely to be ques-tioned by the Navy or Coast Guard upon entering Liyba’s TTW. The NGO/migrant exclusion zone remains in effect, although the reduction in migrant numbers attempting to cross from Libya has seen several NGOs downscale rescue missions in response. The majority of vessels calling at Libyan ports are trouble free, however there is scope for vessels to encounter local issues. It is advised that before visiting a risk assessment is conducted on the area of operation and the fast moving po-litical and military situations monitored closely.

MAST is able to provide risk assessments and crew training to improve situational awareness and risk appreciation. The ad-ditional threat to shipping should not be taken lightly.

Control of Northern Libyan territory (Jan 9th 2018)

Source: Wikimedia CommonsControlled by the Tobruk led government

Controlled by the Government of National Accord

Controlled by ISIS

Controlled by local forces

Controlled by Tuareg forces

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Gulf of GuineaNigerian police has deployed more anti-cultism, anti-kidnapping and anti-terror police personnel to Omoku area of oil rich Rivers State to fish out those who killed 16 worshipers on New Year Day. The Police chief in charge of the state, Zaki Ahmed, said the suspects had come in through the creeks in a speed boat and attacked the worshipers.

Incidents: 1. Anchored tanker reported boarded by 2 robbers at 2305 UTC in position 06:19N - 003:20E, off Lagos, Nigeria. Crew spotted the robbers who then jumped overboard. The robbers had placed a hose into a tank in order to steal some cargo. Nothing stolen. Vessel and crew Safe. Reported (MDAT) 8th Jan.

Niger Delta Militants Behead Security Official Residents in Ndoro community, in Ekeremor Local Govern-ment Area (LGA) of Bayelsa, have fled the community for fear of invasion by security agencies following the murder and be-heading of a security operative by militants, Nigerian media reported on Jan. 5th. The official was negotiating with militants in the area to surrender their arms.

Government’s failure boosts illegal refineries’ operations in Niger DeltaDespite promises in 2017 to create a modular refineries pro-gramme to legitamise oil theft, there are concerns that illegal refining could continue on a large scale in 2018, as the prom-ises have not led to action. Analysts are now concerned that hostilities could break out over the lack of movement from the government, according to reprots in the Nigerian press.

Nigeria resumes gas exports following pipeline fireNigeria has resumed piped gas exports to Ghana, Benin and Togo following a major fire last week severely disrupted sup-plies in the Escravos area. The fire on Tuesday 2nd led to a large blackout in Nigeria itself. The cause of the fire was not reported.

Ending Piracy in Nigerian WatersRecently, the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) released a report naming Nigeria as one of the hotspots for sea piracy. Since the report was released, a number of attacks have been recorded, showing that government agencies responsible for the monitoring and foiling of attacks are clearly failing in their responsibility, Nigerian media reported on Jan. 5th.

MAST provides escort vessels in partnership with trusted Ni-gerian partnered MoU holding companies.

To see MAST Services in the region, please click here.

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MAST UK: +44 (0)1279 216 726 operations@mast-security.com www.mast-security.com

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South East AsiaEastern Sabah Security Command’s (Esscom) psychological operations are paying dividends with tip-offs from the public leading to successes that have included the killing of an Abu Sayyaf leader, a top security official has said. Abu Paliyak, who belonged to an Abu Sayyaf group responsible for kidnap-pings for ransom and robberies in the east coast of Sabah, was killed on Dec. 4th by Esscom’s special forces during a chase in the waters near Pulau Kantong Kalungan off Lahad Datu.

Incidents: 1. Five robbers approached an anchored bulk carried in a small boat and attempted to board via the anchor chain at 1830 UTC in position 00:16.22S – 117:36.11E, Muara Berau Anchorage, Sa-marinda, Indonesia. Alert duty crew noticed the robbers and shouted at them resulting in the robbers retreating and mov-ing away. Reported (IMB) 5th Jan.

2. Bulk carrier OOW noticed a speed boat with five masked persons holding a long hook approaching the vessel at 0600 UTC in position 02:27.4N – 101:39.11E, around 9nm WSW of Port Dickson, Malaysia. Alarm raised and crew mustered with fire-hoses. Seeing the crew alertness, the speed boat moved away. Reported (IMB) 3rd Jan.

Singapore uncovers large oil heist at Shell’s biggest refineryEleven men were charged in a Singapore court on Tuesday 9th in connection with a large-scale oil theft at Shell’s biggest re-finery, while police said they were investigating six other men arrested in a weekend raid. Police in the island-state said on Tuesday they had detained 17 men, whose ages ranged from 30 to 63, and seized millions of dollars in cash and a small tanker during their investigations into theft at the Pulau Bukom industrial site, which sits just south of Singapore’s main island.

Philippine Armed Forces back in Sulu to go after Abu Sayyaf

leadersThe military has redeployed 11 battalions to Sulu to go after the Abu Sayyaf and its leaders, the military Western Mindanao Command said. Lt. Gen. Carlito Galvez Jr., Western Mindanao Command chief, said troops aim to get ranking terrorist lead-ers by the end of the first quarter of 2018.

Sanchi: Oil tanker still burning off China coastBad weather is hampering efforts to contain a fire and an oil spill - more than 60 hours after two ships collided in the East China Sea, officials said on Jan. 9th. China says an Iranian-owned oil tanker is still burning after the incident, with a cargo ship about 260km (160 miles) off the coast of Shanghai.

Duterte wants to intensify maritime security ties with Indo-nesiaPhilippine President Rodrigo Duterte has expressed his inten-tion to improve the Philippines’ maritime security cooperation with Indonesia to stop terrorists from entering the country. Duterte made the remark during the courtesy call of Indone-sian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi at the Presidential Guest House in Davao City on Wednesday 3rd.

To see MAST’s services in the region, please click here.

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Central and South America Nothing significant to report.

Incidents: 1. 03.01.2018: 0700 UTC: Posn: 10:12N - 064:51W, Puerto Jose Anchorage, Venezuela.Five robbers armed with knives in a small boat attempted to board an anchored ship via the anchor chain. Duty AB noticed the robbers and reported to OOW, who raised the alarm. See-ing the alerted crew, the robbers abort the attempted board-ing and escaped. Master contacted port control but did not receive a reply. All crew safe.

Standing advice: The repercussions of a vessel being caught acting as a mule with drugs stowed will depend on the type, amount and na-tional laws, but may be disruptive and costly. When and if operating in these areas, especially Columbia and Peru, it is advised that: • Potential stowage areas such as rudder shafts are denied as far as possible, and/or routinely searched. • Access points are closely monitored by a vigilant watch for the duration of the vessel’s call at port.

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Severe Weather Warnings Warnings detailed on this page are from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and are issued by respective Regional Specialised Metrological Centres, Tropical Cyclone Centres or National Mete-orological Services. For further information on severe weather warnings please click here.

Note: The forecasts are correct as of the day before publication. For latest updates please follow the provided links.

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South-West Indian Ocean