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The Prolonged Destructive Impact of Macroeconomic Policy in Europe: Economic and Political Agendas October 2013 Mark Weisbrot, Director Center for Economic and Policy Research www.cepr.net
The Prolonged Destructive Impact of Macroeconomic Policy in Europe: Economic and Political Agendas
October 2013
Mark Weisbrot, DirectorCenter for Economic and Policy Research
www.cepr.net
• Biggest threat to the world economy continues to be Europe, although U.S. is not helping
• IMF overview of Europe is grim; they seem to understand that there is a lot of unnecessary, self-inflicted damage
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
Source: Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation.
• IMF now projects -0.4 percent growth for Euro Area and 0.0 for Europe in 2013.
The Troika and the World• Troika is
slowing the world economy
YearWorld Output
(Percent change)
2010 5.22011 3.92012 3.22013 2.9
• IMF projections for world GDP growth in 2013 have been revised downward:
Projection Date
World Output (Percent Change)
April 2012 4.1July 2012 3.9October
20123.6
January 2013
3.5
April 2013 3.3July 2013 3.1October
20132.9
• The ILO estimates a record 202 million people could be unemployed worldwide in 2013
• IMF: Fiscal adjustment in Euro Area probably 0.8 percentage points (in structural terms) in 2013, after 1.5 percentage point adjustment in 2012.
• Note: IMF projections have generally been over-optimistic. For example, Greece
Greece:Real GDP Projection
Source: IMF various. Latest review is from July 2013, Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
192.8261741952
162.08099272
196.584583481564
210.9
1st Review2nd Review3rd Review4th Review5th ReviewLatest: Extended AgreementActual
billi
ons o
f 200
5 co
nsta
nt e
uros
Greece:Unemployment Rate Projections
Source: IMF various. Latest review is from July 2013, Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
5
10
15
20
25
30
26.6
11.3
7.71st Review 2nd Review
3rd Review 4th Review
5th Review Latest: Extended Agreement
Actual
perc
ent o
f tot
al w
orkf
orce
• Eurostat announced 0.3 percent growth in second quarter 2013 after 6 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Significant drag on world economy.
• As part of the “Troika”, the IMF decides and influences economic policy in the Eurozone, as well as affecting policy in the rest of the European Union, especially since the world economic crisis and recession of 2008-2009.
• Much unnecessary suffering in Europe, and unnecessary increase in unemployment and poverty worldwide, as a result of flawed macroeconomic policy in Europe.
• Until summer 2012, when Mario Draghi effectively guaranteed Spanish and Italian bonds, threat of a financial meltdown caused recurrent crises and extended recession.
• ECB and European authorities could have acted much sooner but didn’t.
• Why? They were using the crisis to push for changes in fiscal, labor market, social, and other policies. Changes that people in the affected countries would not vote for.
• Even after threat of financial meltdown ended, austerity continues, prolonging recession, stagnation, record unemployment. Why?
• Crisis As Opportunity: “empirical evidence also suggests that recoveries from economic crises often serve as an opportunity for reform” (IMF Article IV consultation for Spain, 2010, p.13).
• Similar statements from European and ECB officials:– “crucial to ensure that ECB decisions did not reduce
pressure on governments to reform.” -- Joerg Asmussen, the most senior German at the IMF, and ECB executive board member. (Sept 2012)
• IMF Article IV consultations are more evidence of the Fund’s political agenda for Europe, mostly shared and determined by Troika partners
• It is the attempt to achieve this political agenda – not debt dynamics or financial markets -- that has kept Europe in recession and stagnation since 2008
• Based on a content analysis of 67 Article IV agreements from 1 January 2008 – 31 December 2011 between the IMF and EU countries.
• Focus on medium-term policy recommendations in fiscal adjustment, inflation targeting, employment generation and social protection.
IMF Article IV Consultations in Europe
1) Macroeconomic policy that focuses on reducing spending and shrinking the size of government, regardless of whether this is appropriate or necessary.
Evidence of a consistent pattern of policy
recommendations:
2) A focus on other policy issues that tend to reduce social protections for broad sectors of the population (including public pensions, health care, and employment protections), reduce labor’s share of national income, and possibly increase poverty, social exclusion, and economic and social inequality.
Fiscal Adjustment
• Recommended for all 27 EU countries.
• Spending cuts preferred to higher taxes.
• Emphasis on cutting public pensions and “increasing the efficiency” of health care expenditure.
Country Frequency of Fiscal Policy
Recommendations, 2008-2011
Source: Various Article IV consultation reports with EU countries, 2008-2011. Note: The IMF recommended both revenue increases and revenue decreases in consultations with 10 countries. The net revenue effect could not be determined based on the information provided in the consultation reports. The IMF did not provide revenue recommendations in consultations with 6 countries.
Fiscal consolidation Expenditure decrease Revenue increase Revenue decrease0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0100.0
96.3
70.4
48.1
Policy Guidelines
Perc
ent
Labor Market Reforms
• Increase in unemployment over the time frame of the study.
• Measures suggested include: reducing eligibility for disability payments or cutting unemployment compensation, raising the retirement age, decentralizing collective bargaining.
• Overwhelmingly focused on measures that would directly reduce wages or would create downward pressure on wages.
Labor Supply• Recommendations to increase labor
supply irrespective of unemployment or labor force participation rates (13 countries explicitly, in 8 further countries implicitly).
• No apparent correlation between recommendation to increase the labor force and a country’s labor force participation rate or unemployment rate.
Country Frequency of Labor Market Policy
Recommendations, 2008-2011
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
70.4
51.9
18.5
48.1
37.0
Policy Guidelines
Perc
ent
Source: Various Article IV consultation reports with EU countries, 2008-2011.
Social Policy
Country Frequency of Recommendations to
Reduce Social Program Spending, 2008-2011
Pension Health care Education UI benefits Welfare0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
25.0
8.3
50.0
86.7
53.3
20.0
26.7
40.0
Low Debt High Debt
Policy Guidelines
Gro
ss D
ebt,
Per
cent
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, general government gross debt as percent of GDP, October 2012; and various Article IV consultation reports with EU countries, 2008-2011. Note: Average debt level over the period 2008-2011. Countries with average gross debt below 50 percent of GDP were categorized as low debt (12 countries), and countries with 50 percent or more were categorized as high debt countries (15 countries).
Pensions• The IMF offered advice on pensions for 22 out of 27
countries reviewed.• Pension recommendations were frequently referenced in the
context of fiscal consolidation and focused on reducing pension spending in every single case by tightening eligibility, raising retirement ages, increasing service period, reducing benefits levels (often through tightening pension indexation), and phasing out early retirement programs.
• Several consultations advocated expansion of private pensions to supplement cuts in public pension.
• No correlation between life expectancy and recommendations to increase the retirement age or scale back pensions.
Healthcare• A total of 26 consultations for 15
countries explicitly mentioned health care policies.
• Health care policy advice was usually framed in terms of budget consolidation.
• For 14 of the 15 countries, recommendations were for decreased spending on health care
Welfare• Majority of welfare recommendations
were centered on cutting expenditures, very few on alleviating poverty and increasing the standards of living through social programs.
• Recommendations on unemployment benefits focused on reducing level and duration of benefits in order to strengthen job search incentives, reduce public expenditures and increase labor supply.
Conclusion
• Eurozone officially out of recession but we don’t really know when or how much it recovers
• Long-term damage is enormous: e.g. IMF projects Spain with 25.3 percent unemployment in 2018, but very little output gap – in other words, Spain is projected to have near 25 percent unemployment as “full employment”!
• Structural flaws in the Eurozone were big part of the problem, but post-crisis macroeconomic policy is the main cause of massive unnecessary suffering and damage
• Fundamental problem: countries forfeited control of most important macroeconomic policy (monetary, exchange rate, then fiscal) to unelected, unaccountable authorities
• These authorities have used and prolonged the crisis to pursue “reforms” and a political/ideological agenda
• Lack of democracy in economic policy is the central problem: about 20 governments have fallen and after two years of unnecessary damage, ECB finally ended acute crisis; but austerity continues to prevent/slow recovery
• European voters will have to either force Troika to change policies or elect governments that refuse to accept these policies
