November2015VolumeXV,No.2

T h e D e m i s e o f E v i d e n c e - B a s e d P o l i c y M a k i n g : T h e C a s e o f I m m i g r a t i o n

ByWayneA.CorneliusandSanfordLakoff

DicksonProfessorsofPoliticalScienceEmeritus

Evidence‐basedpublicpolicy‐makingseemstohavegoneoutthewindowinrecentyears.Inonedo‐mainafteranother–globalclimatechange,economicpolicy(especiallytheeffectsofde icitspendingandraisingtheminimumwage),thecost/bene itratioofchildhoodim‐munizations,andothers‐‐legisla‐tors,otherelectedof icials,andevensomefederaljudgeshavechosentoignorethesettledscienti icconsen‐susandproceedasifoperatinginaparalleluniverse.Immigrationpolicyisanespeciallyglaringcaseinpoint.

Whatexplainsthisstateofaf‐fairs?

“Humannature”–i.e.,self‐interest,habit,ideological ixation,andprejudice–isverymuchinplay.Whenscienti ic indingscontradictconventionalwisdominsomewaythatseemsthreatening,theyarelikelytoberesisteduntil(asthehis‐torianofscienceThomasKuhnshowed)anewgenerationadoptsaparadigmitseldersrejected.Eventu‐ally,theweightofevidenceover‐comestheinitialresistance.TheindingsofCopernicus,Galileo,and

Darwinareclassicexamples.Inre‐centyears,inconvenientscienti ictruthsseemtofaceanequallyuphillbattletoshapepublicpolicy.

Take,forexample,themedicalindingthatsmokingposesserioushealthrisks.TheSurgeonGeneral’sreportappearedinthe1950sbutwasresistedbecauseitwassaidtorelyonepidemiologicalevidenceratherthanetiology.ThetobaccocompaniessupportedtheresistancebyhiringtheirownresearchersandbuyingCongressmen.New indingsandariseinhealthawarenesseven‐tuallyworedowntheopposition,butCongressdoledout$1.5billioninsubsidiestotobaccogrowersfrom1995‐2012andtwentyper‐centofAmericansarestilltooad‐dictedtoquit.

Thecontroversyovergenetically

modi iedfoodsprovidesanotherexample.Thepreponderanceofscienti icevidenceshowsthatthesehavegreatbene itsandminimal,manageablerisks,especiallyinanerawhenclimatechangethreatensthestabilityoftheworld’sfoodsupplyandhungerstalksthedevel‐opingworld,provokingmassiveemigration.ButinEurope,GMfoodsarestillbanned,andherethereisademandforlabelingsothatconsumerscanchoosetoig‐norescienti icevidence.

Globalwarmingremainscon‐troversialintheUnitedStates,largelybecause,asinthecaseoftobacco,economicinterestsareplayingupchallengestothescienceinthefaceofwarningsfromthou‐

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

TheDemiseofEvidence‐BasedPolicyMaking…….……..…...1

ABrie ingonMedicarepartBRates…………………………….3

Anecdotage…………………...........6

MannyRotenberg,PhotographerLesvisagesdeParis………7

Markyourcalendar……...……..8

Markyourcalendarfor2016events!

DistinguishedProfessorofSociologyAndrewScullTopic:"MadnessandMeaning:Imagesanddiscussionabouttherelationshipbetweenmadness,culture,andmeaning."

Wednesday,January13,2016,3:30‐5:00PMIda&CecilGreenFacultyClub

RichardC.Atkinson,UCPresidentEmeritusandUCSDChancellorEmeritus

Topic: "ThehistoryofUCSDandtheUCSystemfromhisuniqueperspective."Toseewhathehastalkedandwrittenaboutinrecentyears,visithiswebsite:www.rca.ucsd.edu.

Wednesday,February10,2016,3:30‐5PMIda&CecilGreenFacultyClub

…Economicinterestsareplayingupchallengestosci-enceinthefaceofwarningsfromthousandsofclimatescientists.Theyhavehelpfromfree-marketideologists(liketheeditorsofTheWallStreetJournal)whoseethescienceasaninsidiousefforttopromotestateregulationandbringdowncapitalismbyresearchershungryforgovernmentgrants.

cont.onpage2

EmeritiandRetirementAssociationsHolidayParty

Saturday,December51-4PM

Ida&CecilGreenFacultyClub

Fabulous Holiday Buffet & No-Host Bar $10 per member

(non-members: $50)

Please mail your check to: UCSD Emeriti Association 9500 Gilman Dr., # 0020 La Jolla, CA 92093-0020

SanfordLakoff Editor

SuzanCiof i ManagingEditor

MelGreen AssistantEditor

HenryPowell PresidentMarkAppelbaum VicePresident

PhyllisMirsky Secretary/TreasurerJoelDimsdale PastPresident,Awards

MembersatLarge:MargueriteJackson,RobertKnox,CarolPlantamura,,RogerSpragg,JoeWatson,andGillWilliamson.ExOf icio:DickAttiyeh,RepresentativetoCUCEA,JackFisher,Historian,BooneHellmann,Representative,UCSDRetirementAssociation,SandyLakoff,Editor,Chronicles,SuzanCiof i,Direc‐tor,RetirementResourceCenter,andMaxineBloor,LiaisontoOceanids.

Forwardqueries,changesinmailing/emailaddressto:SuzanCiof i,Director,UCSDRetirementResourceCenter,UCSD,9500GilmanDrive,#0020,LaJolla,CA92093-0020.

Telephone:(858)534-4724,Emeriti@ucsd.edu

NOVEMBER2015

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

Page2 NOVEMBER2015Chronicles

sandsofclimatescientists.Theyhavehelpfromfree‐marketideolo‐gists(liketheeditorsofTheWallStreetJournal)whoseethescienceasaninsidiousefforttopromotestateregulationandbringdowncapitalismbyresearchershungryforgovernmentgrants.OklahomaSen.JamesInhofe,whohascalledthisscience“thegreatesthoax,”chairstherelevantcommitteeintheSenate,andthecoalindustryhasmountedasustainedlegalchallengetotheEPA’srelativelymodestregulations.

Politiciansdancearoundthescienti icconsensusbyassertingthat,conveniently,theylackthecredentialstoevaluatetheevi‐dence.(“Iamnotascientist”hasbeenthepreferredresponseofRepublicanpoliticians.).Or,theycherry‐pickevidence.Whenpoliti‐ciansdiscoverasinglescholarwhoseresearchseemstosupporttheirviews,theyseizeuponthisasjusti icationfortheirideologically‐derivedposition.Themediaoftenfallintothisgame,sincereportingonadeviant indingisthelatestversionoftheman‐bites‐dogstory.

Immigrationpolicyposesanexceptionallyclearchoicebetweenaccumulatedscienti icevidenceandideologicallydrivenagendas.Thereareseveralfactorsatplayinshapingpublicopinionandpublicpolicyinthisarea,someofthemgoingbackmanyyears.

Nativismisasoldanideologyastherepublic.NolessapublicigurethanBenjaminFranklinwasthe irsttowavethebloodyshirtof“unassimilable”immigrants.Histargetwasnewly‐arrivedGermans,whosesmall,German‐languagepublicationswerecompetingwithFranklin’snewspaperbusinessinPennsylvania.(WeallknowhowpoorlytheGermansassimilated.ThinkofJohnBoehner,TimothyGeithner,ChuckHagel,WorldBankPresidentRobertZoellick,

RepublicanNationalCommitteeChairmanReincePriebus,andDon‐aldTrump–grandsonofanimmi‐grantbornFriedrichDrumpf.

Racismandanti‐Semitismdrovepassageoftherestrictiveimmigra‐tionlawsof1921,1924,and1929.Anti‐Mexicanprejudice,which irstbecamepoliticallyin luentialinthe1920s,remainsapotentforceto‐day,asTrumphasdemonstrated.EventhedistinguishedHarvardpo‐liticalscientistSamuelHuntington,inthelastyearsofhiscareer,stokedpublicfearsthatlarge‐scaleMexicanimmigrationwillinevitablyunder‐minethecountry’scohesionandpromote“bifurcation”inlanguageandotherrespects.

Butwhatarethefacts?Amas‐sivenewsurveyoftherelevantevi‐dencebyapanelofexperts,ledbyHarvardsociologistMaryC.Waters,publishedinSeptember2015,bytheNationalAcademiesofSciences,En‐gineering,andMedicine,concludesthatthenewestgenerationofimmi‐grants,includingMexicans,isassim‐ilatingasfastandascomprehensive‐lyaspreviousgenerationsofimmi‐grants.Theirintegrationincreasesovertime“acrossallmeasurableoutcomes,”theauthors ind.There‐portspeci icallyrejectsthewide‐spreadnotionsthattoday’simmi‐grantslackthedesiretolearnEng‐lish,thattheycommitcrimesmorefrequentlythannon‐immigrantAmericans,andthattheyusuallyarriveinpoorhealthandburdenpublichealthcaresystems.

BeyondpanderingtonegativestereotypesofMexicanimmigrantsandignoranceoftheirimportancetotheeconomy,politicians’resistancetoscienti icevidenceisbeingfedbyaperceiveddemographicthreat–speci ically,thefearamongRepubli‐cansthatthein luxofMexicansandotherLatinoimmigrantswillpro‐videgrowingsupportforDemocrats.RuyTeixera,apoliticalscientist,hasnotedthattheHispanicvotein‐

creasesbyonepercentagepointeveryyear,anditisoverwhelminglyDemo‐cratic.Republicans’fearsareoffsetsomewhatbytheirhopesthattheGOPcanappealtoLatinosintermsofcul‐turalvalues,andthatasmoreLatinosenterthemiddleclasstheywillfollowIrishandotherCatholicsintotheRe‐publicancolumn.ButtheexampleofCalifornia,areliablybluestatewhosebluenessclearlyre lectsthegrowthoftheMexico‐originelectorate,isnotlostonRepublicanstryingtoprotecttheircontrolofotherstates.

Whenitcomestopolicyoptionsforcontrollingthe lowofMexicanandotherunauthorizedmigrants,thegapbetweenscienti icevidenceandtheclaimsofpublicof icialsisevenmoreyawning.Formorethanadec‐ade, ieldinterviewswithtensofthou‐sandsofMexicanmigrantsandpoten‐tialmigrants,conductedsince2005byUCSD’sMexicanMigrationFieldRe‐searchProgramandtheresearchteamofsociologistDouglasMasseyatPrinceton,havedemonstratedtheineffectivenessoftheobstaclecoursethatwehavecreatedalongthesouth‐westernborder.Morethannineoutoftenwhocometotheborderstillsuc‐ceedeventuallyingainingentry,ifnotonthe irsttrythenonthesecondorthird,regardlessoftheirpointoforigininMexico.Fencescanalwaysbeclimbedover(oftenusingladderssup‐pliedbypeople‐smugglers),dugun‐der,orgonearound,includingMr.Trump’s“impenetrable”wall.

Nevertheless,advocatesofspend‐ingbillionsmoreonphysicalfencingclaimthatitcanbeaneffectivedeter‐renttounauthorizedimmigration.Again,theevidencefrominterviewswithmigrantsandpotentialmigrantsbeliestheclaim.Today’sprospectivemigrantsarefarmoreconcernedaboutexposingthemselvestoviolenceperpetratedbydruglordsandkidnap‐pinggangsinMexico’sborderlandsthanaboutborderfences.InUCSD’s2015surveyofpotentialmigrants,

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

cont.onpage3

Les visages de Paris MannyRotenberg,PhotographerAselectionofhisimagescurrentlyondisplayatthe

Ida&CecilGreenFacultyClubExhibitiondates:October‐December2015

CHRONICLES NOVEMBER2015 PAGE3

ByJoelDimsdaleProfessorEmeritusofPsychiatryandFacultyRetirementLiaison

“Otime,thoumustuntanglethis,notI.Itistoohardaknotformet'untie.”―WilliamShakespeare, TwelfthNightMedicarepartBrateswillin‐creasesharplyfor2016‐‐byabout20%‐‐fornewenrolleesandenrol‐leeswhosemodi iedadjustedgrossincome(MAGI)exceeds$85,000/year.Actually,theincreasewasoriginallyforecasttobe52%,butsurprisingly,Congresspassedatrulylastminutecompromisethatspreadstheincreaseoverthenext

ABrie ingonMedicarepartBRates

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

coupleyears.IthoughtIwouldex‐plainhowthiscameaboutbecauseifweremaininazerocostoflivingadjustment(COLA)environmentforanotheryear,theproblemswillmagnify.

Tosimplifydatapresentation,thisanalysispresentssinglecover‐ageforaMedicareretireeonthe

university’sBlueShieldPPO,aninsuranceproductthatiswidelysubscribedbyretirees.

SocialSecurity(SS)calculatesitsCOLAretrospectivelybasedonanindexofconsumerexpensescalledtheCPI‐W,butseniorshavetheirindexbettermappedbytheCPI‐E,whichismoresensi‐tivetotheirnotablyhigherhealthcareexpenses.Thereisconsiderablediscussionabouthowtheconsumerpriceindexshouldbecalculated,buttheCPI‐Whasbeenvirtually latthispastyear;thus,therewillbenoSS

CHRONICLES NOVEMBER2015 PAGE6

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

only7.6percentcited“elmuro”(thecommontermfortoday’sborderwall)astheirtopconcern,com‐paredwith48percentwhofearedbeingkidnappedbyorganizedcrim‐inalgangsorassaultedbyborderbanditswhilemakingtheirwaytotheUnitedStates.

Whatexplainstheblindfaithofpoliticiansinmilitarizingtheborderasthekeytocontrollingimmigra‐tion?Iftheyactuallybelievethatinvestingmoreheavilyinthisformofenforcementiscost‐effective,whereisthesupportingevidence?Themainpointisthatmorethanadecadeofcarefully‐executed, ield‐work‐based,multi‐methodresearchhasyieldedwhatcanproperlybecalledarock‐solidacademicconsen‐sus,i.e.,thatthemassiveborderen‐forcementbuild‐upinwhichwehavebeenengagedsince1993is(1)ineffectiveinkeepingundocument‐edmigrantsoutofthecountry,(2)anextremelyweakdeterrenttopro‐spectivemigrants,and(3)hashad

hugeunintendedconsequences,mostnotablykeepingmillionsofundocumentedmigrantscagedin‐sidetheUnitedStateswithanincen‐tivetoputdownroots.Thislastcon‐sequencewillhaveamajor,long‐term iscalimpact,especiallyforhealthcareandeducation.

Theexpertconsensusandsup‐portingevidencewerereportedinamajorstudyoftheef icacyofU.S.immigrationcontrolpolicybyapan‐elofsixteenofthecountry'sleadingimmigrationresearchers,convenedbytheNationalResearchCoun‐cil.Contrarytoof icialclaimsthatthesharpdownturninnewmigra‐tionfromMexicosince2007isafunctionofstrongerborderenforce‐ment,theNRCpanelfoundthat“rising[border]enforcementdoesnotseemtohaveplayedasigni i‐cantroleinloweringthelikelihoodofundocumentedmigration.”Thepanel’sreport,publishedin2011bytheNationalResearchCouncil,wasignoredbythemediaandthena‐

tionalpoliticalclass.

Partoftheblameundoubtedlylieswithineffectivecommunica‐tionofresearch indingsbytheacademicswhoproducethem(and/ortheirpublishers).Butevenwithsustained,timelyeffortstogetresearchresultsintothepublicdomainviainterviewswithmediareporters,op‐edarticles,Congressionaltestimony,andoth‐ervehicles,politicaldebatesinthisandotherimportantareasareproceedingwithlittleornorefer‐encetosettledempiricalresearchindings.Thecountryisnotbene‐itingfromthisdisjuncture.

Recentlycollecteddataonmi-grants’border-crossingexperienc-esarepresentedinchapter1ofWayneA.Cornelius,etal.,eds.,TheNewFaceofMexicanMigration(LaJolla,CA:UCSDCenterforCom-parativeImmigrationStudies),availableinearlyDecember2015fromAmazon.com.

BySandyLakoff

FeeltheBernComeTrueOK,here’smydream.BernieSandersbecomestheDemocraticnomineeforpresidentwhenHilla‐ryClintonbowsout,afterrealiz‐ingshehasalreadylivedintheWhiteHouselongenoughandcanhaveamoresatisfyingcareerhostingSaturdayNightLive.Sand‐ersgoesontodefeattheRepubli‐cancandidateDonaldTrumpinalandslide.(Trumpthendeclareshis ifthbankruptcysoasnottohavetopaycampaigndebts,stif ‐inghisstaffersjustlikehisrun‐ningmateCarlyFiorinaoncedid.)AttheinauguralinJanuary,theBernidictionisofferedbytheLeaderoftheNewYorkSocietyforEthicalCulture.ThenSandersbe‐comesthe irstpresidenttobesworninonhisfamilycopyofTheIntelligentWoman’sGuidetoSo-cialismandCapitalismbyGeorge“Bernie”Shaw.Inhisinauguraladdress,thePresident‐ElectremindspeoplethatGeorgeWashingtonwasaMasonandsaysthattheMasonsmayhaveinspiredKarlMarx’sslo‐gan,“Fromeachaccordingtohisabilities,toeachaccordingtohisneeds,”whichiswhytheywereblamedfortheFrenchandAmeri‐canrevolutions.Healsoquotesfrommylatestessay:“Extremeinequalityofwealthandincome...createssocialdivisionsandten‐sionsthataredangerousnotonlyforsocietiesintransitiontode‐mocracybutalsoforthoseinwhichithasa irmfoot‐ing.”(Lakoff,“InequalityasaDan‐gertoDemocracy,”PoliticalSci-enceQuarterly,fall2015.It’smydream,remember!)Hepromises

tointroducetwonewconstitution‐alamendments,onegivingCon‐gressthepowertoregulatecam‐paignspending,theothertorevisetheSecondAmendmenttoallowforguncontrol(explainingthathenowrepresentsthewholecountryandnotjustaruralstate).AndhewarnsthathewillsendMarinestoannextheCaymanIslandsiftheydon’tstopservingasanoffshorehavenforAmericantax‐dodgers.ThereceptionontheWhiteHouselawnfeaturespancakestoppedwithVermontMapleSyrupandBenandJerry’sicecream,alsoshippedinfromVermont.Theen‐tertainmentisaHootenannyinwhichBobDylanandJoanBaezstrumguitars(un‐electri iedtohelpcontrolglobalwarming)andleadthesingingofsucholdfavor‐itesasTheBalladofJoeHill(theWobblytroubadour):IdreamtIsawJoeHilllastnight,Aliveasyouorme.“SaysI,butJoe,you’retenyearsdead.”“Ineverdied,”sayshe,“FromSanDiegouptoMaine,ineverymineandmill,Whereworkingmendefendtheirrights.That’swhereyou’ll indJoeHill.”OnDay1ofhispresidency,SandersissuesanExecutiveOrdersendingtheDodgersbacktoBrooklyn,thePadrestoLA,andtheYankeestoSanDiego.ThePresidentsaysheisdoingsotosymbolizehisdeterminationtoreduceinequalityinAmerica.Then,inarepriseofFDR’sOneHundredDays,hesendsablizzardoflegislationtoCongress(towhichallmembersoftheFreedomCaucushavelostreelection).Onebillwouldraisetheminimumwageto$15.AnotherwouldhavethePostOf icecashchecksandprovidesavingsaccounts(asthey

doinFrance,GermanyandJapan),sothatlowwageearnerswouldnotbegougedbypay‐daylendersanddeniedsavingsaccountsbybanks.Athirdwouldcreateapub‐lic‐privateinfrastructureBernie‐bankto ixallthebridges,roads,tunnels,etc.,andstimulatebusi‐nessandemployment.Afourthwouldraisetaxesontheverywealthy‐‐highenoughtoprovidehealthcareforall,freetuitionatpubliccolleges,rooftopsolarpan‐els,andsubsidizedeggcreamsmadeonlywithFox’sU‐betchoco‐latesyrup(madeinBrooklyn).It’safreecountry,right?WecanallhaveanydreamourREMsleepcomesupwith.IhopeIdon’thavetosharemynightmareofwhathappensifhisopponentwins.I’lljustquotemybesidelexi‐con:

Trumpery,n.Somethingde‐ceptivelyshowy,hence,vainorvaluelessthings;rubbish.Webster’sCollegiateDictionary

***TheEditor’sDementia!:ApologiestoCecilLytleandotherreadersperplexedbythegarbledmathinthe“DementiaQuiz”inthelastissues.Thisisthecorrectversion:

TAKE1000ANDADD40TOIT.NOWADDANOTHER1000NOWADD30.

ADDANOTHER1000.NOWADD20.NOWADDANOTHER1000.NOWADD10.WHATISTHETO‐TAL?

DIDYOUGET5000?THECORRECTANSWERISACTUALLY4100.

Anecdotage

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CHRONICLESNOVEMBER2015 PAGE4

COLAincreasein2016.Thisisarareoccurrence(onlythethirdtimein40years)overthedecadesofSS,butithastellingconsequenc‐esforMedicare.

MedicarecalculatespartBchargesprospectivelybasedonhealthcareestimatedcostsinthecomingyear.Thesecosthavebeenrising,andhistorically,since1980,Medicarepremiumcostshavein‐creasedtwiceasrapidlyasincreas‐estotheSocialSecuritycost‐of‐living(COLA)adjustmentsbene‐its.

CongressrecognizedthatifMedicarepremiumsincreasedmorethantheCOLAsocialsecuritybene its,itcouldseriouslyhurttheincomeofseniorswhodependprimarilyontheirSocialSecuritychecks.Itthereforeenacteda“holdharmless”clausethatinessenceprotects70%ofexistingsocialse‐curityrecipients‐‐thosewithlowerincomes‐‐fromhavingtheirSocialSecurityincomesreducedbyhigh‐erMedicarepremiums.

Butthe“holdharmless”clauseshiftsthelower‐incomeretirees’costsontotheothersinMedicare,therebyincreasingtheircostsevenmore.Thesearesomeofthe

groupsthatarenotheldharmlessbytheclause:

NewSocialSecuritybene iciar‐ies,evenlowerincomeones.

IndividualswhodonothavetheirMedicarepaymentsauto‐maticallydeductedfromtheirSocialSecuritypayments.

Individualswithhigherin‐comes(comprising6%ofsen‐iorsonMedicare).

Whatwillhappenin2016?

In2016,MedicarepartBwaspredictedtoincreaseby$54permonth.ForthosewithhigherMod‐i iedAdjustedGrossIncome(MAGI),theincreasewouldhavebeenmuchsteeperbecausetheywouldbepayingnotonlyfortheir

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

ownincreasedcostsbutalsoforthoseofthe70%ofSocialSe‐curityrecipientswhowouldbeheldharm‐less.Thetablebelowliststhe iveincomebandsfor2015andtheaccompanyingpartBandDpremi‐ums.

Witheverysuccessiveincomeband,thepremiumincreasesbyabout50%,ascomparedtothelowestincomeband.

Duetothelastminutebudg‐etarycompromise,theexactdol‐laramountsfor2016partBpre‐miumsareunclearasoftoday(10/30/15)butareexpectedtobe~20%higher.PartDincome‐relatedassessmentsareproject‐edtobeonlyslightlyincreasedinthecomingyear(byabout$1ineachincomeband).

So,howmanyemeritiwillbeaffectedbythesesubstantialin‐creasedpremiums?TheUniver‐sitydoesnotknowtheincomebandsofitsretirees.Itonlyknowstheirpensionincome.Theuniversityhasnowayofknow‐ingtheamountofextraincome

retireesobtainfromSocialSecurityorpersonalinvestments.Theuniver‐sityalsogenerallyknowswhethertheretireehasaspousebuthasnowayofknowingaboutthespouse’sincome.Onecanspeculatethatmostrecentlyretiredemeritiwouldfallinincomeband3.

BottomLine

Somepeopleareunderthemis‐apprehensionthatretireesonMedi‐carefacenegligiblehealthcarecosts.Whiletheuniversityprovidesexcel‐lentandrelativelylowcostsupple‐mentalinsurancetoMedicare,retir‐eeshavefacedsharpincreasesinpremiumsfortheBlueShieldPPOinthelasttwoyears(byabout200%).Inaddition,MedicarehasincreaseditspartsBandDpremiumsby20%in2016.

_______________________

MedicarepartAcoversinpatientcostsandistypically“free”becauseemployeespaidintoitallalongfromtheirpaychecks.MedicarepartBcoversoutpatientandlaboratorycostsandistypicallyautomaticallysubtractedfromindividuals’SocialSecuritychecks.MedicarepartDcoversdrugsorprescriptionbene‐its.TheratesforpartsBandDdif‐fer,dependingupontheretiree’sincome.

SomehaveadvocatedthatthegovernmentrelyinsteadontheCPI‐E,whichhasbeenconsistentlyhigh‐erintermsofestimatesofelderly’scoststhantheCPI‐W.Thatchange,however,wouldincreasethecostofSocialSecurity.Seeforinstancehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiehopkins/2015/09/02/congress‐considers‐new‐proposal‐to‐raise‐social‐security‐bene its/

Giventhedifferenceinmagni‐tudebetweentheSScheckandtheMedicarepremium,theseef‐fectsarerelativelysmallaslongastheCOLAispositive.Forin‐stance,ifoneassumedaSSbene‐itof$2000/month,evena1%COLAgeneratesanadditional$20/month.Incomparison,themonthlypartBMedicarechargeforlowerincomeretireesiscur‐rently$105.EvenifMedicarerateswentupby10%(i.e.$10/month),individualswouldnot“notice”theeffectsofthesediffer‐entpercentincreases,becausetheirSSpaycheckwouldstillbeincreasingandtherewouldbeno“holdharmless”actionaffectingnewretireesandthoseinhigherincomebrackets.WhentheSSCOLA=0,however,theimpactoftheincreasedMedicarepremiumisreadilydiscernible.

Therearesomebackoftheenvelopecalculations,whichsug‐gestthatemeritimaybeinahigh‐erincomebandthananticipated.Forinstance,in2015,facultyre‐

CHRONICLESNOVEMBER2015 PAGE5

tiringatage70couldearnamaximumSocialSecuritybene‐itof$3501permonth.In2015,theaverageladderrankfacultymemberretiredatage69after29yearsofserviceandatanaveragecoveredcompensationof$181,000.Suchprofessorswouldretirewithapensionof$131,225(datakindlyprovidedbytheViceProvostforAcadem‐icPersonnelandPrograms).Afteraddingthemaximumso‐cialsecurityof$42,000,thatimpliesthatanaverageprofes‐sorwouldhaveincomeof$173,225,notincludinganypersonalinvestments.Thesecalculationsimplythatthe“average”facultyretireemightwellbeinincomeband3or4.Additionalpersonalsavingswouldshiftfacultytohigherbands.Ontheotherhand,facul‐tywhosespouseshadlittlein‐comewouldshiftthebandtoalowerincomebracket.

Endnotes

part B charges set to rise in 2015

Witheverysuccessiveincomeband,thepremiumincreasesbyabout50%,ascomparedtothelowestincomeband.

CHRONICLESNOVEMBER2015 PAGE4

COLAincreasein2016.Thisisarareoccurrence(onlythethirdtimein40years)overthedecadesofSS,butithastellingconsequenc‐esforMedicare.

MedicarecalculatespartBchargesprospectivelybasedonhealthcareestimatedcostsinthecomingyear.Thesecosthavebeenrising,andhistorically,since1980,Medicarepremiumcostshavein‐creasedtwiceasrapidlyasincreas‐estotheSocialSecuritycost‐of‐living(COLA)adjustmentsbene‐its.

CongressrecognizedthatifMedicarepremiumsincreasedmorethantheCOLAsocialsecuritybene its,itcouldseriouslyhurttheincomeofseniorswhodependprimarilyontheirSocialSecuritychecks.Itthereforeenacteda“holdharmless”clausethatinessenceprotects70%ofexistingsocialse‐curityrecipients‐‐thosewithlowerincomes‐‐fromhavingtheirSocialSecurityincomesreducedbyhigh‐erMedicarepremiums.

Butthe“holdharmless”clauseshiftsthelower‐incomeretirees’costsontotheothersinMedicare,therebyincreasingtheircostsevenmore.Thesearesomeofthe

groupsthatarenotheldharmlessbytheclause:

NewSocialSecuritybene iciar‐ies,evenlowerincomeones.

IndividualswhodonothavetheirMedicarepaymentsauto‐maticallydeductedfromtheirSocialSecuritypayments.

Individualswithhigherin‐comes(comprising6%ofsen‐iorsonMedicare).

Whatwillhappenin2016?

In2016,MedicarepartBwaspredictedtoincreaseby$54permonth.ForthosewithhigherMod‐i iedAdjustedGrossIncome(MAGI),theincreasewouldhavebeenmuchsteeperbecausetheywouldbepayingnotonlyfortheir

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

ownincreasedcostsbutalsoforthoseofthe70%ofSocialSe‐curityrecipientswhowouldbeheldharm‐less.Thetablebelowliststhe iveincomebandsfor2015andtheaccompanyingpartBandDpremi‐ums.

Witheverysuccessiveincomeband,thepremiumincreasesbyabout50%,ascomparedtothelowestincomeband.

Duetothelastminutebudg‐etarycompromise,theexactdol‐laramountsfor2016partBpre‐miumsareunclearasoftoday(10/30/15)butareexpectedtobe~20%higher.PartDincome‐relatedassessmentsareproject‐edtobeonlyslightlyincreasedinthecomingyear(byabout$1ineachincomeband).

So,howmanyemeritiwillbeaffectedbythesesubstantialin‐creasedpremiums?TheUniver‐sitydoesnotknowtheincomebandsofitsretirees.Itonlyknowstheirpensionincome.Theuniversityhasnowayofknow‐ingtheamountofextraincome

retireesobtainfromSocialSecurityorpersonalinvestments.Theuniver‐sityalsogenerallyknowswhethertheretireehasaspousebuthasnowayofknowingaboutthespouse’sincome.Onecanspeculatethatmostrecentlyretiredemeritiwouldfallinincomeband3.

BottomLine

Somepeopleareunderthemis‐apprehensionthatretireesonMedi‐carefacenegligiblehealthcarecosts.Whiletheuniversityprovidesexcel‐lentandrelativelylowcostsupple‐mentalinsurancetoMedicare,retir‐eeshavefacedsharpincreasesinpremiumsfortheBlueShieldPPOinthelasttwoyears(byabout200%).Inaddition,MedicarehasincreaseditspartsBandDpremiumsby20%in2016.

_______________________

MedicarepartAcoversinpatientcostsandistypically“free”becauseemployeespaidintoitallalongfromtheirpaychecks.MedicarepartBcoversoutpatientandlaboratorycostsandistypicallyautomaticallysubtractedfromindividuals’SocialSecuritychecks.MedicarepartDcoversdrugsorprescriptionbene‐its.TheratesforpartsBandDdif‐fer,dependingupontheretiree’sincome.

SomehaveadvocatedthatthegovernmentrelyinsteadontheCPI‐E,whichhasbeenconsistentlyhigh‐erintermsofestimatesofelderly’scoststhantheCPI‐W.Thatchange,however,wouldincreasethecostofSocialSecurity.Seeforinstancehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiehopkins/2015/09/02/congress‐considers‐new‐proposal‐to‐raise‐social‐security‐bene its/

Giventhedifferenceinmagni‐tudebetweentheSScheckandtheMedicarepremium,theseef‐fectsarerelativelysmallaslongastheCOLAispositive.Forin‐stance,ifoneassumedaSSbene‐itof$2000/month,evena1%COLAgeneratesanadditional$20/month.Incomparison,themonthlypartBMedicarechargeforlowerincomeretireesiscur‐rently$105.EvenifMedicarerateswentupby10%(i.e.$10/month),individualswouldnot“notice”theeffectsofthesediffer‐entpercentincreases,becausetheirSSpaycheckwouldstillbeincreasingandtherewouldbeno“holdharmless”actionaffectingnewretireesandthoseinhigherincomebrackets.WhentheSSCOLA=0,however,theimpactoftheincreasedMedicarepremiumisreadilydiscernible.

Therearesomebackoftheenvelopecalculations,whichsug‐gestthatemeritimaybeinahigh‐erincomebandthananticipated.Forinstance,in2015,facultyre‐

CHRONICLESNOVEMBER2015 PAGE5

tiringatage70couldearnamaximumSocialSecuritybene‐itof$3501permonth.In2015,theaverageladderrankfacultymemberretiredatage69after29yearsofserviceandatanaveragecoveredcompensationof$181,000.Suchprofessorswouldretirewithapensionof$131,225(datakindlyprovidedbytheViceProvostforAcadem‐icPersonnelandPrograms).Afteraddingthemaximumso‐cialsecurityof$42,000,thatimpliesthatanaverageprofes‐sorwouldhaveincomeof$173,225,notincludinganypersonalinvestments.Thesecalculationsimplythatthe“average”facultyretireemightwellbeinincomeband3or4.Additionalpersonalsavingswouldshiftfacultytohigherbands.Ontheotherhand,facul‐tywhosespouseshadlittlein‐comewouldshiftthebandtoalowerincomebracket.

Endnotes

part B charges set to rise in 2015

Witheverysuccessiveincomeband,thepremiumincreasesbyabout50%,ascomparedtothelowestincomeband.

CHRONICLES NOVEMBER2015 PAGE3

ByJoelDimsdaleProfessorEmeritusofPsychiatryandFacultyRetirementLiaison

“Otime,thoumustuntanglethis,notI.Itistoohardaknotformet'untie.”―WilliamShakespeare, TwelfthNightMedicarepartBrateswillin‐creasesharplyfor2016‐‐byabout20%‐‐fornewenrolleesandenrol‐leeswhosemodi iedadjustedgrossincome(MAGI)exceeds$85,000/year.Actually,theincreasewasoriginallyforecasttobe52%,butsurprisingly,Congresspassedatrulylastminutecompromisethatspreadstheincreaseoverthenext

ABrie ingonMedicarepartBRates

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

coupleyears.IthoughtIwouldex‐plainhowthiscameaboutbecauseifweremaininazerocostoflivingadjustment(COLA)environmentforanotheryear,theproblemswillmagnify.

Tosimplifydatapresentation,thisanalysispresentssinglecover‐ageforaMedicareretireeonthe

university’sBlueShieldPPO,aninsuranceproductthatiswidelysubscribedbyretirees.

SocialSecurity(SS)calculatesitsCOLAretrospectivelybasedonanindexofconsumerexpensescalledtheCPI‐W,butseniorshavetheirindexbettermappedbytheCPI‐E,whichismoresensi‐tivetotheirnotablyhigherhealthcareexpenses.Thereisconsiderablediscussionabouthowtheconsumerpriceindexshouldbecalculated,buttheCPI‐Whasbeenvirtually latthispastyear;thus,therewillbenoSS

CHRONICLES NOVEMBER2015 PAGE6

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

only7.6percentcited“elmuro”(thecommontermfortoday’sborderwall)astheirtopconcern,com‐paredwith48percentwhofearedbeingkidnappedbyorganizedcrim‐inalgangsorassaultedbyborderbanditswhilemakingtheirwaytotheUnitedStates.

Whatexplainstheblindfaithofpoliticiansinmilitarizingtheborderasthekeytocontrollingimmigra‐tion?Iftheyactuallybelievethatinvestingmoreheavilyinthisformofenforcementiscost‐effective,whereisthesupportingevidence?Themainpointisthatmorethanadecadeofcarefully‐executed, ield‐work‐based,multi‐methodresearchhasyieldedwhatcanproperlybecalledarock‐solidacademicconsen‐sus,i.e.,thatthemassiveborderen‐forcementbuild‐upinwhichwehavebeenengagedsince1993is(1)ineffectiveinkeepingundocument‐edmigrantsoutofthecountry,(2)anextremelyweakdeterrenttopro‐spectivemigrants,and(3)hashad

hugeunintendedconsequences,mostnotablykeepingmillionsofundocumentedmigrantscagedin‐sidetheUnitedStateswithanincen‐tivetoputdownroots.Thislastcon‐sequencewillhaveamajor,long‐term iscalimpact,especiallyforhealthcareandeducation.

Theexpertconsensusandsup‐portingevidencewerereportedinamajorstudyoftheef icacyofU.S.immigrationcontrolpolicybyapan‐elofsixteenofthecountry'sleadingimmigrationresearchers,convenedbytheNationalResearchCoun‐cil.Contrarytoof icialclaimsthatthesharpdownturninnewmigra‐tionfromMexicosince2007isafunctionofstrongerborderenforce‐ment,theNRCpanelfoundthat“rising[border]enforcementdoesnotseemtohaveplayedasigni i‐cantroleinloweringthelikelihoodofundocumentedmigration.”Thepanel’sreport,publishedin2011bytheNationalResearchCouncil,wasignoredbythemediaandthena‐

tionalpoliticalclass.

Partoftheblameundoubtedlylieswithineffectivecommunica‐tionofresearch indingsbytheacademicswhoproducethem(and/ortheirpublishers).Butevenwithsustained,timelyeffortstogetresearchresultsintothepublicdomainviainterviewswithmediareporters,op‐edarticles,Congressionaltestimony,andoth‐ervehicles,politicaldebatesinthisandotherimportantareasareproceedingwithlittleornorefer‐encetosettledempiricalresearchindings.Thecountryisnotbene‐itingfromthisdisjuncture.

Recentlycollecteddataonmi-grants’border-crossingexperienc-esarepresentedinchapter1ofWayneA.Cornelius,etal.,eds.,TheNewFaceofMexicanMigration(LaJolla,CA:UCSDCenterforCom-parativeImmigrationStudies),availableinearlyDecember2015fromAmazon.com.

BySandyLakoff

FeeltheBernComeTrueOK,here’smydream.BernieSandersbecomestheDemocraticnomineeforpresidentwhenHilla‐ryClintonbowsout,afterrealiz‐ingshehasalreadylivedintheWhiteHouselongenoughandcanhaveamoresatisfyingcareerhostingSaturdayNightLive.Sand‐ersgoesontodefeattheRepubli‐cancandidateDonaldTrumpinalandslide.(Trumpthendeclareshis ifthbankruptcysoasnottohavetopaycampaigndebts,stif ‐inghisstaffersjustlikehisrun‐ningmateCarlyFiorinaoncedid.)AttheinauguralinJanuary,theBernidictionisofferedbytheLeaderoftheNewYorkSocietyforEthicalCulture.ThenSandersbe‐comesthe irstpresidenttobesworninonhisfamilycopyofTheIntelligentWoman’sGuidetoSo-cialismandCapitalismbyGeorge“Bernie”Shaw.Inhisinauguraladdress,thePresident‐ElectremindspeoplethatGeorgeWashingtonwasaMasonandsaysthattheMasonsmayhaveinspiredKarlMarx’sslo‐gan,“Fromeachaccordingtohisabilities,toeachaccordingtohisneeds,”whichiswhytheywereblamedfortheFrenchandAmeri‐canrevolutions.Healsoquotesfrommylatestessay:“Extremeinequalityofwealthandincome...createssocialdivisionsandten‐sionsthataredangerousnotonlyforsocietiesintransitiontode‐mocracybutalsoforthoseinwhichithasa irmfoot‐ing.”(Lakoff,“InequalityasaDan‐gertoDemocracy,”PoliticalSci-enceQuarterly,fall2015.It’smydream,remember!)Hepromises

tointroducetwonewconstitution‐alamendments,onegivingCon‐gressthepowertoregulatecam‐paignspending,theothertorevisetheSecondAmendmenttoallowforguncontrol(explainingthathenowrepresentsthewholecountryandnotjustaruralstate).AndhewarnsthathewillsendMarinestoannextheCaymanIslandsiftheydon’tstopservingasanoffshorehavenforAmericantax‐dodgers.ThereceptionontheWhiteHouselawnfeaturespancakestoppedwithVermontMapleSyrupandBenandJerry’sicecream,alsoshippedinfromVermont.Theen‐tertainmentisaHootenannyinwhichBobDylanandJoanBaezstrumguitars(un‐electri iedtohelpcontrolglobalwarming)andleadthesingingofsucholdfavor‐itesasTheBalladofJoeHill(theWobblytroubadour):IdreamtIsawJoeHilllastnight,Aliveasyouorme.“SaysI,butJoe,you’retenyearsdead.”“Ineverdied,”sayshe,“FromSanDiegouptoMaine,ineverymineandmill,Whereworkingmendefendtheirrights.That’swhereyou’ll indJoeHill.”OnDay1ofhispresidency,SandersissuesanExecutiveOrdersendingtheDodgersbacktoBrooklyn,thePadrestoLA,andtheYankeestoSanDiego.ThePresidentsaysheisdoingsotosymbolizehisdeterminationtoreduceinequalityinAmerica.Then,inarepriseofFDR’sOneHundredDays,hesendsablizzardoflegislationtoCongress(towhichallmembersoftheFreedomCaucushavelostreelection).Onebillwouldraisetheminimumwageto$15.AnotherwouldhavethePostOf icecashchecksandprovidesavingsaccounts(asthey

doinFrance,GermanyandJapan),sothatlowwageearnerswouldnotbegougedbypay‐daylendersanddeniedsavingsaccountsbybanks.Athirdwouldcreateapub‐lic‐privateinfrastructureBernie‐bankto ixallthebridges,roads,tunnels,etc.,andstimulatebusi‐nessandemployment.Afourthwouldraisetaxesontheverywealthy‐‐highenoughtoprovidehealthcareforall,freetuitionatpubliccolleges,rooftopsolarpan‐els,andsubsidizedeggcreamsmadeonlywithFox’sU‐betchoco‐latesyrup(madeinBrooklyn).It’safreecountry,right?WecanallhaveanydreamourREMsleepcomesupwith.IhopeIdon’thavetosharemynightmareofwhathappensifhisopponentwins.I’lljustquotemybesidelexi‐con:

Trumpery,n.Somethingde‐ceptivelyshowy,hence,vainorvaluelessthings;rubbish.Webster’sCollegiateDictionary

***TheEditor’sDementia!:ApologiestoCecilLytleandotherreadersperplexedbythegarbledmathinthe“DementiaQuiz”inthelastissues.Thisisthecorrectversion:

TAKE1000ANDADD40TOIT.NOWADDANOTHER1000NOWADD30.

ADDANOTHER1000.NOWADD20.NOWADDANOTHER1000.NOWADD10.WHATISTHETO‐TAL?

DIDYOUGET5000?THECORRECTANSWERISACTUALLY4100.

Anecdotage

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Page2 NOVEMBER2015Chronicles

sandsofclimatescientists.Theyhavehelpfromfree‐marketideolo‐gists(liketheeditorsofTheWallStreetJournal)whoseethescienceasaninsidiousefforttopromotestateregulationandbringdowncapitalismbyresearchershungryforgovernmentgrants.OklahomaSen.JamesInhofe,whohascalledthisscience“thegreatesthoax,”chairstherelevantcommitteeintheSenate,andthecoalindustryhasmountedasustainedlegalchallengetotheEPA’srelativelymodestregulations.

Politiciansdancearoundthescienti icconsensusbyassertingthat,conveniently,theylackthecredentialstoevaluatetheevi‐dence.(“Iamnotascientist”hasbeenthepreferredresponseofRepublicanpoliticians.).Or,theycherry‐pickevidence.Whenpoliti‐ciansdiscoverasinglescholarwhoseresearchseemstosupporttheirviews,theyseizeuponthisasjusti icationfortheirideologically‐derivedposition.Themediaoftenfallintothisgame,sincereportingonadeviant indingisthelatestversionoftheman‐bites‐dogstory.

Immigrationpolicyposesanexceptionallyclearchoicebetweenaccumulatedscienti icevidenceandideologicallydrivenagendas.Thereareseveralfactorsatplayinshapingpublicopinionandpublicpolicyinthisarea,someofthemgoingbackmanyyears.

Nativismisasoldanideologyastherepublic.NolessapublicigurethanBenjaminFranklinwasthe irsttowavethebloodyshirtof“unassimilable”immigrants.Histargetwasnewly‐arrivedGermans,whosesmall,German‐languagepublicationswerecompetingwithFranklin’snewspaperbusinessinPennsylvania.(WeallknowhowpoorlytheGermansassimilated.ThinkofJohnBoehner,TimothyGeithner,ChuckHagel,WorldBankPresidentRobertZoellick,

RepublicanNationalCommitteeChairmanReincePriebus,andDon‐aldTrump–grandsonofanimmi‐grantbornFriedrichDrumpf.

Racismandanti‐Semitismdrovepassageoftherestrictiveimmigra‐tionlawsof1921,1924,and1929.Anti‐Mexicanprejudice,which irstbecamepoliticallyin luentialinthe1920s,remainsapotentforceto‐day,asTrumphasdemonstrated.EventhedistinguishedHarvardpo‐liticalscientistSamuelHuntington,inthelastyearsofhiscareer,stokedpublicfearsthatlarge‐scaleMexicanimmigrationwillinevitablyunder‐minethecountry’scohesionandpromote“bifurcation”inlanguageandotherrespects.

Butwhatarethefacts?Amas‐sivenewsurveyoftherelevantevi‐dencebyapanelofexperts,ledbyHarvardsociologistMaryC.Waters,publishedinSeptember2015,bytheNationalAcademiesofSciences,En‐gineering,andMedicine,concludesthatthenewestgenerationofimmi‐grants,includingMexicans,isassim‐ilatingasfastandascomprehensive‐lyaspreviousgenerationsofimmi‐grants.Theirintegrationincreasesovertime“acrossallmeasurableoutcomes,”theauthors ind.There‐portspeci icallyrejectsthewide‐spreadnotionsthattoday’simmi‐grantslackthedesiretolearnEng‐lish,thattheycommitcrimesmorefrequentlythannon‐immigrantAmericans,andthattheyusuallyarriveinpoorhealthandburdenpublichealthcaresystems.

BeyondpanderingtonegativestereotypesofMexicanimmigrantsandignoranceoftheirimportancetotheeconomy,politicians’resistancetoscienti icevidenceisbeingfedbyaperceiveddemographicthreat–speci ically,thefearamongRepubli‐cansthatthein luxofMexicansandotherLatinoimmigrantswillpro‐videgrowingsupportforDemocrats.RuyTeixera,apoliticalscientist,hasnotedthattheHispanicvotein‐

creasesbyonepercentagepointeveryyear,anditisoverwhelminglyDemo‐cratic.Republicans’fearsareoffsetsomewhatbytheirhopesthattheGOPcanappealtoLatinosintermsofcul‐turalvalues,andthatasmoreLatinosenterthemiddleclasstheywillfollowIrishandotherCatholicsintotheRe‐publicancolumn.ButtheexampleofCalifornia,areliablybluestatewhosebluenessclearlyre lectsthegrowthoftheMexico‐originelectorate,isnotlostonRepublicanstryingtoprotecttheircontrolofotherstates.

Whenitcomestopolicyoptionsforcontrollingthe lowofMexicanandotherunauthorizedmigrants,thegapbetweenscienti icevidenceandtheclaimsofpublicof icialsisevenmoreyawning.Formorethanadec‐ade, ieldinterviewswithtensofthou‐sandsofMexicanmigrantsandpoten‐tialmigrants,conductedsince2005byUCSD’sMexicanMigrationFieldRe‐searchProgramandtheresearchteamofsociologistDouglasMasseyatPrinceton,havedemonstratedtheineffectivenessoftheobstaclecoursethatwehavecreatedalongthesouth‐westernborder.Morethannineoutoftenwhocometotheborderstillsuc‐ceedeventuallyingainingentry,ifnotonthe irsttrythenonthesecondorthird,regardlessoftheirpointoforigininMexico.Fencescanalwaysbeclimbedover(oftenusingladderssup‐pliedbypeople‐smugglers),dugun‐der,orgonearound,includingMr.Trump’s“impenetrable”wall.

Nevertheless,advocatesofspend‐ingbillionsmoreonphysicalfencingclaimthatitcanbeaneffectivedeter‐renttounauthorizedimmigration.Again,theevidencefrominterviewswithmigrantsandpotentialmigrantsbeliestheclaim.Today’sprospectivemigrantsarefarmoreconcernedaboutexposingthemselvestoviolenceperpetratedbydruglordsandkidnap‐pinggangsinMexico’sborderlandsthanaboutborderfences.InUCSD’s2015surveyofpotentialmigrants,

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

cont.onpage3

Les visages de Paris MannyRotenberg,PhotographerAselectionofhisimagescurrentlyondisplayatthe

Ida&CecilGreenFacultyClubExhibitiondates:October‐December2015

November2015VolumeXV,No.2

T h e D e m i s e o f E v i d e n c e - B a s e d P o l i c y M a k i n g : T h e C a s e o f I m m i g r a t i o n

ByWayneA.CorneliusandSanfordLakoff

DicksonProfessorsofPoliticalScienceEmeritus

Evidence‐basedpublicpolicy‐makingseemstohavegoneoutthewindowinrecentyears.Inonedo‐mainafteranother–globalclimatechange,economicpolicy(especiallytheeffectsofde icitspendingandraisingtheminimumwage),thecost/bene itratioofchildhoodim‐munizations,andothers‐‐legisla‐tors,otherelectedof icials,andevensomefederaljudgeshavechosentoignorethesettledscienti icconsen‐susandproceedasifoperatinginaparalleluniverse.Immigrationpolicyisanespeciallyglaringcaseinpoint.

Whatexplainsthisstateofaf‐fairs?

“Humannature”–i.e.,self‐interest,habit,ideological ixation,andprejudice–isverymuchinplay.Whenscienti ic indingscontradictconventionalwisdominsomewaythatseemsthreatening,theyarelikelytoberesisteduntil(asthehis‐torianofscienceThomasKuhnshowed)anewgenerationadoptsaparadigmitseldersrejected.Eventu‐ally,theweightofevidenceover‐comestheinitialresistance.TheindingsofCopernicus,Galileo,and

Darwinareclassicexamples.Inre‐centyears,inconvenientscienti ictruthsseemtofaceanequallyuphillbattletoshapepublicpolicy.

Take,forexample,themedicalindingthatsmokingposesserioushealthrisks.TheSurgeonGeneral’sreportappearedinthe1950sbutwasresistedbecauseitwassaidtorelyonepidemiologicalevidenceratherthanetiology.ThetobaccocompaniessupportedtheresistancebyhiringtheirownresearchersandbuyingCongressmen.New indingsandariseinhealthawarenesseven‐tuallyworedowntheopposition,butCongressdoledout$1.5billioninsubsidiestotobaccogrowersfrom1995‐2012andtwentyper‐centofAmericansarestilltooad‐dictedtoquit.

Thecontroversyovergenetically

modi iedfoodsprovidesanotherexample.Thepreponderanceofscienti icevidenceshowsthatthesehavegreatbene itsandminimal,manageablerisks,especiallyinanerawhenclimatechangethreatensthestabilityoftheworld’sfoodsupplyandhungerstalksthedevel‐opingworld,provokingmassiveemigration.ButinEurope,GMfoodsarestillbanned,andherethereisademandforlabelingsothatconsumerscanchoosetoig‐norescienti icevidence.

Globalwarmingremainscon‐troversialintheUnitedStates,largelybecause,asinthecaseoftobacco,economicinterestsareplayingupchallengestothescienceinthefaceofwarningsfromthou‐

UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on

TheDemiseofEvidence‐BasedPolicyMaking…….……..…...1

ABrie ingonMedicarepartBRates…………………………….3

Anecdotage…………………...........6

MannyRotenberg,PhotographerLesvisagesdeParis………7

Markyourcalendar……...……..8

Markyourcalendarfor2016events!

AndrewScull,DistinguishedProfessorofSociologyTopic:"MadnessandMeaning:Imagesanddiscussionabouttherelationshipbetweenmadness,culture,andmeaning."

Wednesday,January13,2016,3:30‐5:00PMIda&CecilGreenFacultyClub

RichardC.Atkinson,UCPresidentEmeritusandUCSDChancellorEmeritus

Topic: "ThehistoryofUCSDandtheUCSystemfromhisuniqueperspective."Toseewhathehastalkedandwrittenaboutinrecentyears,visithiswebsite:www.rca.ucsd.edu.

Wednesday,February10,2016,3:30‐5PMIda&CecilGreenFacultyClub

…Economicinterestsareplayingupchallengestosci-enceinthefaceofwarningsfromthousandsofclimatescientists.Theyhavehelpfromfree-marketideologists(liketheeditorsofTheWallStreetJournal)whoseethescienceasaninsidiousefforttopromotestateregulationandbringdowncapitalismbyresearchershungryforgovernmentgrants.

cont.onpage2

EmeritiandRetirementAssociationsHolidayParty

Saturday,December51-4PM

Ida&CecilGreenFacultyClub

Fabulous Holiday Buffet & No-Host Bar $10 per member

(non-members: $50)

Please mail your check to: UCSD Emeriti Association 9500 Gilman Dr., # 0020 La Jolla, CA 92093-0020

SanfordLakoff Editor

SuzanCiof i ManagingEditor

MelGreen AssistantEditor

HenryPowell PresidentMarkAppelbaum VicePresident

PhyllisMirsky Secretary/TreasurerJoelDimsdale PastPresident,Awards

MembersatLarge:MargueriteJackson,RobertKnox,CarolPlantamura,,RogerSpragg,JoeWatson,andGillWilliamson.ExOf icio:DickAttiyeh,RepresentativetoCUCEA,JackFisher,Historian,BooneHellmann,Representative,UCSDRetirementAssociation,SandyLakoff,Editor,Chronicles,SuzanCiof i,Direc‐tor,RetirementResourceCenter,andMaxineBloor,LiaisontoOceanids.

Forwardqueries,changesinmailing/emailaddressto:SuzanCiof i,Director,UCSDRetirementResourceCenter,UCSD,9500GilmanDrive,#0020,LaJolla,CA92093-0020.

Telephone:(858)534-4724,Emeriti@ucsd.edu