1 1. INTRODUCTION The following text is a review of the citrus marketing environment. This analysis is updated on a quarterly basis. The interval covered in the current issue is from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. This period is subdivided into five, three-month long quarters 1 . The key issues discussed in the review are the trends in production, producer prices, and sales in the National Fresh Produce Markets (NFPMs), exports and imports. The citrus products covered are oranges, grapefruits, lemons and limes, soft citrus and naartjies. During the period under review the average producer prices of naartjie increased by 46% on a quarter-on- quarter basis while those of oranges, soft citrus, lemon and lime and grapefruit, decreased by 43.91%, 35.25%, 6.26% and 28.25% respectively. The quarterly production of citrus products, oranges, grapefruit, lemon and lime, soft citrus and naartjie decreased by 87.54%, 96.28, 91.78, 98.10 and 65% respectively. The quarterly volumes of sales at the NFPMs for all citrus products, oranges, grapefruit, lemon and lime soft citrus and naartjie experienced a decrease of 72.67%, 75.31%, 6.63%, 88.94% and 54.98% respectively. The volumes of exports of all citrus products, orange, grapefruit, lemon and lime, soft citrus and naartjie all decreased by 83.62%, 97.99%, 98.51%, 98.35% and 76.44% respectively . Quarterly import volumes for orange decreased by 77.95% while grapefruit, lemon and lime, soft citrus and other citrus imports increased by 100%, 718%, 100% and 99% during the fourth quarter of 2014. 2. AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICE OF CITRUS PRODUCTS Average producer prices of citrus products during the period under review are presented in Figure 1. Oranges recorded an average producer price of R 2 287.21 per ton during the third quarter of 2014. The price was 43.9% less than the average producer price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 0.65% more than the average producer price of last year at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). The orange average producer price usually follows the pattern of demand and supply in most cases. An increase in orange production during the fourth quarter is accompanied by a decrease in average producer price. The average producer price of grapefruit during the fourth quarter of 2014 dropped to R 2 217.99 per ton. This price was 28.25% lower than the average producer price of last quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 18% higher than the average producer of the previous season at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). A drop in 1 Quarter 1: January to March, Quarter 2: April to June, Quarter 3: July to September, Quarter 4: October to December MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 1 OF 2015: CITRUS
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1. INTRODUCTION The following text is a review of the citrus marketing environment. This analysis is updated on a quarterly basis. The interval covered in the current issue is from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. This period is subdivided into five, three-month long quarters1. The key issues discussed in the review are the trends in production, producer prices, and sales in the National Fresh Produce Markets (NFPMs), exports and imports. The citrus products covered are oranges, grapefruits, lemons and limes, soft citrus and naartjies. During the period under review the average producer prices of naartjie increased by 46% on a quarter-on-quarter basis while those of oranges, soft citrus, lemon and lime and grapefruit, decreased by 43.91%, 35.25%, 6.26% and 28.25% respectively. The quarterly production of citrus products, oranges, grapefruit, lemon and lime, soft citrus and naartjie decreased by 87.54%, 96.28, 91.78, 98.10 and 65% respectively. The quarterly volumes of sales at the NFPMs for all citrus products, oranges, grapefruit, lemon and lime soft citrus and naartjie experienced a decrease of 72.67%, 75.31%, 6.63%, 88.94% and 54.98% respectively. The volumes of exports of all citrus products, orange, grapefruit, lemon and lime, soft citrus and naartjie all decreased by 83.62%, 97.99%, 98.51%, 98.35% and 76.44% respectively . Quarterly import volumes for orange decreased by 77.95% while grapefruit, lemon and lime, soft citrus and other citrus imports increased by 100%, 718%, 100% and 99% during the fourth quarter of 2014. 2. AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICE OF CITRUS PRODUCTS Average producer prices of citrus products during the period under review are presented in Figure 1. Oranges recorded an average producer price of R 2 287.21 per ton during the third quarter of 2014. The price was 43.9% less than the average producer price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 0.65% more than the average producer price of last year at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). The orange average producer price usually follows the pattern of demand and supply in most cases. An increase in orange production during the fourth quarter is accompanied by a decrease in average producer price. The average producer price of grapefruit during the fourth quarter of 2014 dropped to R 2 217.99 per ton. This price was 28.25% lower than the average producer price of last quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 18% higher than the average producer of the previous season at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). A drop in 1Quarter 1: January to March, Quarter 2: April to June, Quarter 3: July to September, Quarter 4: October to December
MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 1 OF 2015: CITRUS
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average producer price is not quite surprising given the fact that total production decreased by 96.28%. It is often expected that the grapefruit average prices reach its low during periods of high production. When one takes a closer look at the below graph, the average producer price reached its highest during periods of low production and vice -versa. Thus one can anticipate prices to move up towards first quarter of 2015. Lemons and limes recorded an average producer price of R 7 563.25 per ton during the fourth quarter. This price was 6.26% lower than the average producer price of previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 16.53% higher than the average producer price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2014). The 6.26% quarter-on-quarter price decrease was accompanied by a decrease in production. This serves to confirm that lemon and lime average producer price usually does not follow the forces of demand and supply. Due to this demand and supply pattern, it makes it more uncertain to predict the price for the next coming quarter. The average producer price of soft citrus during the fourth quarter recorded a value of R6 313.09 per ton. This price was 35.25% higher than the average producer price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 21.32 % lower than the average producer price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). Prices are expected to continue increase in the next coming quarter due to normal drop in total production in the first quarter. Naartjie average producer price during the fourth quarter of 2014 reached R6 362.49 per ton. This represented a 46% increase as compared to previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 6.79% higher as compared to last year at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). Naartjie was the highest amongst other citrus product that recorded an increase in producer price.
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Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
3. TOTAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF CITRUS PRODUCTS The quarterly production and gross values of the different citrus products during the period under review are presented in Figures 2 – 6 below. Figure 2 illustrates the quarterly production and gross value of oranges during the five quarter under review. Oranges worth the value of R336 million were produced during the fourth quarter of 2014. The value recorded during this quarter represents a 93% decrease in gross value compared to the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and a 0.92% increase compared to the same time of previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The decrease in value on a quarter-on-quarter basis follows a decrease in the volume of oranges produced during the fourth quarter of 2014. A total of 148 thousand tons of oranges were produced during the fourth quarter of 2014. This was an increase of 87.54% from the previous quarterly production (quarter 3, 2014) and 0.27% higher than the quarterly production volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). As can be evidently seen on the below graph, the production of oranges is usually at its lowest during the first quarter of each year and the highest volumes are produced in the third quarter. With this being said, we can expect orange production to decline in the next upcoming quarter because of the off season.
Figure 1: Quartely producer prices of citrus products
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Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
The quarterly production and gross value of grapefruit during the period under review is presented in Figure 3. Quarterly production gross value was R 6.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2014. This was 97.33% lower than the gross value of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 24% lower than the gross value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The decrease in the attained gross value during the third quarter is mainly due to a decrease in total production itself. A total volume of 2 806 tons of grapefruit were produced during the third quarter. This was 96.28% lower than the total production of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and a 36.33% increase as compared to the quarterly production of last year at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). Normally, post second quarter of each year we expect grapefruit to decline until it reaches its lowest level in quarter one. This was no exception as grapefruit dropped during the fourth quarter with minimal production experienced during other quarters when grapefruit is off season.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 148025 3595 475049 1191403 148418
Gross value in Rands (million) 336.36 16.91 1884.25 4858.00 339.46
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Figure 2: Quartely production and gross value of orange
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Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Figure 4 illustrates the quarterly production and gross value of lemons and limes during the five quarters under review. Lemon and lime worth the value of R 72 million were produced during the fourth quarter of 2014. This value represents a 92.30 % decrease from the previous quarter production (quarter 2, 2014) and 13.72% increase compared to the same quarter of last year (quarter 4, 2013). The quarter-on-quarter decrease in gross value during the fourth quarter was mainly due to decrease in total production (see next paragraph). Production of lemon and lime, like that of grapefruit also reaches its highest during the second quarter of each year. When one take a closer look at the below graph, lemon and lime reached its lowest during the fourth quarter and maintained its highest production in the second quarter of 2014. A total volume of 9 639 tons were produced during the fourth quarter of 2014. The volume was 91.78% lower than the quarterly production of the previous quarter (quarter, 3 2014) and 2.4% lower than the quarterly production volume at the same time in the previous season. Thus one can anticipate total production for the next coming quarter to increase slightly due to usual production slight increase of lemon and lime from quarter one of each year.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 4408 1241 320484 75505 2806
Gross value in Rands (million) 8.28 7.78 932.67 233.42 6.22
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Figure 3: Quartely production and gross value of grapefruit
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Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
The quarterly production and gross value of soft citrus during the period under review are presented in Figure 5. A total volume of 1 174 tons worth the value of R7.4 million were produced during the fourth quarter of 2014. The total production for the fourth quarter was 98.10% lower than the quarterly production of previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 6.45 % lower than the production at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2012). The total gross value also decreased with 98.77% on quarter-on-quarter basis.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 9878 23722 177221 117308 9639
Gross value in Rands (million) 64.11 142.63 1354.75 946.44 72.90
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Figure 4: Quartely production and gross value of lemon and lime
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 1255 5883 113941 61862 1174
Gross value in Rands (million) 10.07 55.90 927.23 603.14 7.41
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Figure 5: Quartely production and gross value of soft citrus
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The decrease in total gross value on quarter-on-quarter basis was caused by obvious decrease in total production as highlighted. When compared to the same quarter of previous season, the total gross value decreased by 26.40% on year-on-year basis. One can undoubtedly predict a slight increase in both production and value for the next coming quarter.
Figure 6 presents the production and total gross value of naartjies during the five quarters under review. The production of naartjies, like that of oranges, normally peaks during the third and remains almost stable during the fourth quarter of each year. The quarterly production volume of naartjies remained decreased during the fourth quarter of 2014 recording 5 978 tons. This was 65% lower than the quarterly production volume of previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 10% lower than production at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4 2013). Production is expected to decline during the first quarter of 2015 as naartjies will be off season. The gross value of production during the same quarter was R 38 million. The value was 48.9% lower than the production gross value in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 4% lower than the production gross value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2014). The gross value of production for naartjies is usually higher during the second and third quarter and lower during the first quarter each year.
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
4. SALES AT THE NATIONAL FRESH PRODUCE MARKETS (NFPMs) The quarterly volumes and average prices of the different citrus products sold at the National Fresh Produce Markets (NFPMs) during the period under review are presented in Figures 7 – 11 below. Quarterly sales and average prices for oranges sold at the NFPMs during the five quarters under review are presented in Figure 7. The volume of oranges sold at the NFPMs is generally lower in the first and fourth quarter. This is in response to lower volumes of oranges produced during the same quarter. The
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 6650 266 17072 17090 5978
Gross value in Rands (million) 39.62 0.50 27.97 74.45 38.03
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Figure 6: Quartely production and gross value of naartjie
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quarterly volume of oranges sold at the NFPMs during the fourth quarter of 2014 was 14 048 tons. This was 72.76% lower than the quarterly volume of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 1.46% higher than the quarterly volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the same time, the quarterly price at NFPMs for oranges was R3 012 per ton. The price was 267% higher than the quarterly price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 1.44% less than the quarterly price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013).
Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
The quarterly sales and average prices of grapefruit sold at the national fresh produce markets (NFPMs) during the period under review are depicted in Figure 8. The quarterly volume at NFPMs for grapefruit was 389 tons in the fourth quarter of 2014. The volume was 75.31% lower than the quarterly volume of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 66% less than the quarterly volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The75.31% decrease on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the volume of grapefruit sold at the NFPMs is not surprising because production of grapefruit also decreased by 96.28% during the same period. Grapefruits sold through the NFPMs during the fourth quarter of 2014 fetched an average price of R6 699 per ton. The price was 305% more than the quarterly price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 199% higher than the quarterly price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The increase in prices is as expected because the volume of grapefruit available for sale during the fourth quarter of 2014 decreased when compared to the third quarter of 2014.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 13846 2920 51700 51573 14048
Average price (Rand/Ton) 3056 14487 818 820 3012
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Figure 7: Quartely sales and prices of oranges at NFPMs
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Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Figure 9 illustrates the quarterly sales and prices for lemons and limes sold at the NFPMs during the period under review. A volume of 3 600 tons of lemons and limes were sold though the NFPMs at an average price of R7 607 during the fourth quarter of 2014. The volume sold was 6.63% lower than the quarterly volume of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 4.97% higher than the quarterly volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The average price during the fourth quarter (R7 607) was 7.10% higher than the quarterly price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 4.73% higher than the quarterly price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). Figure 9 also shows that the demand for lemons and limes sold at the markets is relatively consistent throughout the year. This however does not translate into stability in prices of lemons and limes sold at the NFPMs (see Figure 9). The prices are highly responsive to quantities available for sale.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 1165 523 2036 1575 389
Average price (Rand/Ton) 2236 4978 1280 1654 6699
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Figure 8: Quartely sales and prices of grapefruit at NFPMs
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Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
The quarterly sales and average prices for soft citrus sold at the NFPMs during the five quarters under review are presented in Figure 10. NFPMs sold 406 tons of soft citrus during the fourth quarter of 2014. The average price during the same quarter was R2 423 per ton. The volume was 88.92% lower than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 84.55% higher than the quarterly volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The price during the same quarter was 803% higher than the quarterly price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2013) and 45.81% less than the quarterly price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The decrease in prices on quarter-on-quarter can be attributed to some external forces such as quality of product and reduced consumer demand, as supply of soft citrus dropped at the NFPMs. From quarter four of 2013 to quarter four of 2014 prices of soft citrus were responding to quantities available for sale in the sense that when quantities are low, prices are higher and vice-versa (see Figure 10). Higher volumes are supplied to the NFPMs during the second quarter due to high volumes produced during the same quarter. The volumes however start declining during the third quarter until they reach their lowest level in quarter four and start increasing thereafter.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 3430 3236 3739 3856 3600
Average price (Rand/Ton) 7985 8464 7325 7103 7607
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Figure 9: Quartely sales and prices of lemon and lime at NFPMs
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Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Figure 11 presents the quarterly sales and average prices of naartjies sold through the NFPM during the five quarters under review. A volume of 2 998 tons of naartjies were sold through the NFPMs during the fourth quarter of 2014. The average price during the same quarter was R7 420 per ton. The volume was 54.98% less than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 10.30% less than the quarterly volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the same time the quarterly price was 122% higher than the quarterly price of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 11.48% higher than the quarterly price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). Prices of naartjies at the NFPMs are usually higher during the third and fourth quarters even though volumes supplied to the markets during these quarters are at their highest. The interesting part is that they also drop during the first and second quarters when supplies are also low.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 220 726 6687 3670 406
Average price (Rand/Ton) 4472 1355 147 268 2423
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Figure 10: Quartely sales and prices of soft citrus
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Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF 5. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS The quarterly volumes and values of citrus products exported and imported by South Africa during the period under review are presented in the figures below. Figure 12 presents the quarterly export volumes and values for oranges during the five quarters under review. Quarterly exports of oranges peak during the third quarter each year because quarterly production also peaks during the same quarter. A total volume of 136 780 tons were exported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014. The quarterly export value during the same quarter was R693 million. The volume was 83.62% lower than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 9.42% less than the quarterly export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the same time the quarterly export value was 85.38% lower than the quarterly value of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 1% less than the quarterly value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The 85.38% quarter-on-quarter drop in the quarterly export volumes was the result of a drop in production in the fourth quarter of 2014. Asia, which accounted for 50.1% (68 555 tons) of all South African exports of oranges during the fourth quarter of 2014, was the biggest market for South African oranges. Another important market for South African oranges during the same quarter was Europe, which absorbed 42.3% (57 984 tons) of total South African orange exports. Europe was followed by Africa at 6.61% (9 061 tons), and the remaining 1% went to America.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 3342 57 2613 6660 2998
Average price (Rand/Ton) 6656 4407 8513 3340 7420
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Figure 11: Quartely sales and prices of naartjie at NFPMs
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Source: Quantec Easydata
Volumes and values of grapefruits exported by South Africa during the past five quarters are presented in Figure 13. Grapefruits worth R8 million were exported during the fourth quarter of 2014. The export value was 97.14% lower than the quarterly export value in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 52.16% lower than the quarterly export value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2014). The decrease in export value on a quarter-on-quarter basis follows a decrease in the volume of grapefruits exported during the fourth quarter of 2014 (see next paragraph). A total volume of 1 072 tons of grapefruits were exported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014. This represented a 97.99 % decrease in the quarterly export volume from the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and a 52.16% decrease in the export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The quarter-on-quarter decrease in volumes exported was the result of decreased production during the same period. 60% (644 tons) of the total grapefruits exported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014 was destined for the Asian market. Asia was followed by Europe, Africa and America at 25.27% (271 tons), 12.5% (132 tons) and 1.9 %( 21 tons) respectively.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 151003 1533 154439 834849 136780
Gross Value (R Million) 700 8 973 4740 693
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Figure 12: Quartely exports of orange
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Source: Quantec Easydata
Source: Quantec Easydata
The quarterly export volumes and values of lemons and limes during the last five quarters are presented in Figure 14 above. A total volume of 1 538 tons of lemons and limes were exported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014. The quarterly export value during the same quarter was R15 million. The volume was 98.51% lower than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 62.56% lower than the quarterly export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the same time the quarterly export value was 98.75% lower than the quarterly value of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 61.64% lower than the quarterly value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). Exports of lemons and limes usually peak during the third quarter of the year and are normally lower during the fourth and first quarters. Therefore we can expect export volumes to drop in the next upcoming quarter
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 3156 82 146546 53309 1072
Gross Value (R Million) 16 0 782 270 8
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Figure 13: Quartely exports of grapefruit
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 4109 4986 108148 103290 1538
Gross Value (R Million) 40 55 1151 1216 15
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Figure14: Quartely exports of lemon and lime
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Out of all lemons and limes exported by South Africa during the third quarter of 2014, 51% (781tons) was absorbed by Africa. It was followed by Asia and Europe at 32% (492 tons) and 19% (249 tons) respectively. Figure 15 presents the volumes and values of soft citrus exported during the last five quarters. Soft citrus worth R10 million were exported during the fourth quarter of 2014. The export value was 98.66% lower than the quarterly export value in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 70.65% more than the quarterly export value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). The decrease in export value on a quarter-on-quarter basis follows a decline in the volume of soft citrus exported during the fourth quarter of 2014. A total volume of 1 081 tons of soft citrus were exported by South Africa during the third quarter of 2014. This represented a 98.35% decrease in the export volume from the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and a 68.81% decrease in the export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 3, 2013). The quarter-on-quarter decrease in volumes exported was the result of decreased production during the same period. Europe, which absorbed 53% (571 tons) of soft citrus exported by South Africa in the fourth quarter of 2014, was South Africa’s biggest market. It was followed by Africa, Asia and America at 27% (291 tons), 12% (132 tons) and 8% (86 tons) respectively.
Source: Quantec Easydata
Volumes and values of other citrus products exported during the five quarters under review are illustrated in Figure 16. A total volume of 817 tons of other citrus products worth R6 million were exported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014. The volume was 76.44% lower than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 299% higher than the quarterly export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). At the same time the quarterly export value was 74.39% lower than
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 3465 996 84887 65476 1081
Gross Value (R Million) 35 11 807 764 10
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Figure 15: Quartely exports of soft citrus
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the gross value of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 306% more than the gross value of the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). Approximately 81% (665 tons) of the total other citrus products exported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014 was absorbed by Africa, with Asia absorbing 17% (145 tons) and the remaining 2% went to Europe.
Source: Quantec Easydata The quarterly imports of oranges for the period under review are presented in Figure 17. The figure shows that 450 tons of oranges worth a value of R3 million were imported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014. The volume was 77.95% lower than the quarterly volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 575% higher than the quarterly import volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2014). At the same time the quarterly import value was 180% higher than the gross value of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 344% higher compared to import gross value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2013). Normally during the second and the third quarter of each year we do not import most oranges due to very high productions domestically with minimal amounts imported during fourth quarter and first quarter. 80% of all imports of oranges reported by South Africa during the fourth quarter came from Africa; the remaining 20% came from Europe.
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 204 149 2151 3467 817
Gross Value (R Million) 2 3 17 25 6
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Figure 16: Quartely imports of other citrus
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Source: Quantec Easydata
Volumes and values of grapefruits imported by South Africa during the last five quarters are presented in Figure 18. As can be seen in the figure, South Africa did not imported about grapefruits during the fourth quarter of 2014.The recorded volume is 100% more compared to the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2014) and 6.12 less than the previous season at the same time . Generally South Africa only imports grapefruit during summer and autumn seasons when grapefruits are off season. When one takes a closer look at the graph, the mentioned periods is quarter one and quarter four each year. One could expect South Africa to further import oranges in the next upcoming quarter due to lower production of grapefruit domestically.
Source: Quantec Easydata
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 151003 1533 154439 834849 136780
Gross Value (R Million) 700 8 973 4740 693
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Figure 12: Quartely exports of orange
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 3156 82 146546 53309 1072
Gross Value (R Million) 16 0 782 270 8
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Figure 13: Quartely exports of grapefruit
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Import volumes and values for lemons and limes during the period under review are presented in Figure 19. South Africa imported 505 tons worth the value of R8 million. The import volume is 100% less as compared to previous quarter (quarter 2, 2014) and 103% more as compared to the previous season at the same time (quarter 4, 2013). South Africa imports high amount of lemon and lime during quarter four and quarter one due to lower availability of lemon and lime domestically. Europe exported 70 %( 353 tons) into South Africa, America exported 25% (126 tons) and the remaining 5% (24 tons) was supplied by the Asia.
Source: Quantec Easydata
Source: Quantec Easydata
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 4109 4986 108148 103290 1538
Gross Value (R Million) 40 55 1151 1216 15
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Figure14: Quartely exports of lemon and lime
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 3465 996 84887 65476 1081
Gross Value (R Million) 35 11 807 764 10
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Figure 15: Quartely exports of soft citrus
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The quarterly import volumes and values of soft citrus during the period under review are depicted in Figure 20. During the fourth quarter of 2014, South Africa did not import soft citrus. South Africa normally imports soft citrus during quarter four and one of every season due to low production during that period. Therefore one can expect imports of soft citrus to rise in the coming quarter. As can be seen in Figure 21, 0.46 tons of other citrus products were imported by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2014. The import value during the same quarter was R 5 million. All imports of other citrus products recorded by South Africa during the fourth quarter of 2013 came from Asia.
Source: Quantec Easydata
6. GROWTH, VOLATILITY & STABILITY ANALYSIS Tables 1 – 5 present the results of growth and coefficient of variation estimations. They were calculated using quarterly statistics and covered the same five-quarter period under review beginning in quarter 4 of 2013 and ending in quarter 4 of 2014. The coefficient of variation is a measure of volatility or stability. When the coefficient of variation is less than one, the variable in question is said to be relatively stable, meaning that there were minimal changes. When the coefficient of variation is more than one, it is said to be volatile, meaning there were major changes during the period under review. Table 1 shows the coefficients of variation of producer prices for the five quarters under review. Table 1: Citrus industry variation coefficients on producer prices (Quarter 4, 2013 to Quarter 4, 2014) Product Coefficient of Variation
Orange 0.32
Grapefruit 0.53
Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Volume in Tons 0.03 2.30 0.02 0.46 3
Value in Rands 2007 83107 1034 14187 81666
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Figure 21: Quartely imports of other citrus
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Product Coefficient of Variation
Lemon and lime 0.12
Soft citrus 0.17
Naartjies 0.55 Source: Calculated from data from Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
Producer prices for all citrus products displayed low levels of volatility during the period under review. This is indicated by the coefficients of variation that were universally less than one (<1). These low values indicate that on a weighted variance scale, the producer prices displayed minimal changes during the five quarters (from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014). The estimates of growth and volatility of domestic production during the period under review are presented in Table 2. Table 2: Citrus industry growth rates & variation coefficients on total domestic production (Quarter 43 of 2013 to Quarter 4 of 2014) Product Subcategory Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation
Orange Volume 0.07 1.22
Gross Value 0.23 1.36
Grapefruit Volume -10.67 1.70
Gross Value -6.89 1.69
Lemon & lime Volume -0.61 1.13
Gross Value 3.27 1.16
Soft citrus Volume -1.65 1.32
Gross Value -7.38 1.38
Naartjie Volume - 0.79
Gross Value - 0.74 Source: Calculated from data from Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF
As shown in Table 2, the citrus industry generally experienced negative growth from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014 in terms of volumes and gross value of domestic production, with the exception of orange volumes of production and gross value of Lemon and limes which recorded a positive growth. Table 2 also shows various levels of volatility for both volumes and gross values of total domestic production of citrus products over the same period under review (quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014). Low volatility was indicated by the coefficients of variation that were less than one (<1). The coefficients of variation for all products were more than one except for naartjie which is less than one. This indicates that on a weighted variance scale, they displayed maximum changes during the five quarters under review. Only naartjie displayed less significant changes for the period under review. The estimates of growth and volatility of sales at the NFPMs during the period under review are presented in Table 3.
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Table 3: Citrus industry growth rates & variation coefficients on sales at NFPMs (Quarter 4 of 2013 to Quarter 4 of 2014) Product Subcategory Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation
Orange Volume 0.36 0.86
Price/GV -0.36 1.29
Grapefruit Volume -23.99 0.61
Price/ GV 31.57 0.70
Lemon & lime Volume 1.22 0.07
Price/ GV -1.21 0.07
Soft citrus Volume 16.55 1.20
Price/ GV -14.20 1.03
Naartjie Volume -2.68 0.75
Price/ GV 2.75 0.35 Source: Calculated from data from Statistics and Economic Analysis
It is evident from Table 3 that in terms of gross values of citrus products sold at NFPMs, all citrus products, with exception of gross values of orange, lemon and lime, soft citrus and volumes of orange, lemon and lime and naartjie experienced a positive growth rate during the period from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. Table 3 also shows various levels of volatility for both volumes and prices of the citrus products sold at the NFPMs over the same period (quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014). Low volatility was indicated by the coefficients of variation that were less than one (<1). The volumes and gross values for all products are below one, indicating that they displayed minimal changes during the five quarters with exception of gross value of orange and both volumes and gross value of soft citrus. The estimates of growth and volatility of quarterly exports during the period under review are presented in Table 4. Table 4: Citrus industry growth rates & variation coefficients on exports (Quarter 4 of 2013 to Quarter 4 of 2014) Product Subcategory Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation
Orange Volume -2.44 1.29
Gross Value -0.26 1.33
Grapefruit Volume -23.66 1.55
Gross Value 16.83 1.56
Lemon & lime Volume -21.78 1.26
Gross Value -21.30 1.27
Soft citrus Volume -25.27 1.31
Gross Value -26.40 1.29
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Product Subcategory Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation
Other citrus products
Volume 41.42 1.05
Gross Value 42.02 0.96 Source: Calculated from data from Quantec Easydata
As shown in Table 4 the citrus industry generally experienced a mixed growth rate trend in terms of export from period quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. The volumes and gross values of all the products grew negatively with an exception of other citrus hitting an upward growth rate. The table also shows various levels of volatility for both volumes and gross values of citrus products’ exports over the same period (quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014). Low volatility was indicated by the coefficients of variation that were less than one (<1). The volume and gross value of all products had coefficients of variation that were more than one (>1) with the exception of other citrus products that has a coefficient of variation of less than one (<1) for both volume and gross value. This means that they had low levels of volatility and therefore displayed minimal changes during the five quarters under review. The estimates of growth and volatility of quarterly imports during the period under review are presented in Table 5. Table 5: Citrus industry growth rates & variation coefficients on the imports (Quarter 4 of 2013 to Quarter 4 of 2014) Product Subcategory Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation
Orange Volume 61.20 0.95
Gross Value 45.17 0.72
Grapefruit Volume -1.57 0.78
Gross Value -4.16 0.60
Lemon & lime Volume 19.47 1.21
Gross Value 26.17 1.07
Soft citrus Volume -4.65 0.92
Gross Value -5.47 0.14
Other citrus products Volume 204 1.17
Gross Value 152 1.16 Source: Calculated from data from Quantec Easydata
The volume and gross value of orange, lemon and lime and other citrus products experienced a positive import growth rate from period quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. In addition the volume and gross value of grapefruit and soft citrus experienced a negative growth rate. The table also shows that the volumes and gross values of all products had low levels of volatility with exception of lemon and lime and other citrus in terms of imports from quarter 4 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2014. They had coefficients of variation that were less than one (<1). This means that they had low levels of volatility meaning that on a weighted variance scale, they displayed fewer changes during the five quarters under review.
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7. Acknowledgements Acknowledgement is given to the following information sources: Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis www.daff.gov.za Quantec Easydata www.easydata.co.za For more information contact:
Director: Marketing Department of Agriculture Private Bag X 15 Arcadia 0007 Tel: (012) 319 8455/6 Fax: (012) 319 8131 E-mail: [email protected] Websites: www.daff.gov.za www.webapps.daff.gov.za/mis
Disclaimer: This document and its contents have been compiled by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the purpose of profiling the citrus industry. Anyone who uses this information does so at his/her own risk. The views expressed in this document are those of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries with regard to the agricultural industry, unless otherwise stated. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries therefore, accepts no liability that can be incurred resulting from the use of this information.
