Market Bias Forecast

April 2-6, 2007

Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc

All rights reserved.

What is a Market Bias Forecast?

• In researching social instability, A New Story Foundation has developed a method for successfully forecasting market movement in several key commodities and equity indices.

• Market Bias is the composite outlook of a quantified estimate of bullish and bearish investors’ perspectives.

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Market Bias

• The charts on the following pages will show the estimated bias strengths from the bullish (long) and bearish (short) perspectives.

• A positive number is good for that perspective, and a negative number is not.

• To the right of the charts is the forecast for that commodity derived from the composite bias.

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

April 2-6, 2007 – Summary

• Theme: Consolidation and constriction; waiting for the “other shoe to drop.”

• Late Tuesday/early Wednesday thru Thursday sell off in Crude Oil, Gold and Copper with corresponding stock market rally Wed – Thur.

• Thursday/Friday direction again reverses; Crude, Gold, and Copper turn up and the stock market down.

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Treasury Bonds

• Bonds start out mixed, turning up very early in the week. Mostly flat the remainder of the week.

• Slightly negative bias into next week.

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

T-Bonds

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

T-Bonds L -3 1 2 0 1 1

T-Bonds S -2 -3 1 -1 1 3

M T W Th FNext Week

T-Bonds - price

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2-6, 2007

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

M T W Th F NextWeek

T-Bonds

Japanese Yen

• Mostly positive week for the Yen. Trend starts turning down Thursday continuing into Friday.

• Strong negative bias going into next week.

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Japanese Yen

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

J Yen L 1 0 3 0 -2 -4

J Yen S -1 1 -1 -2 1 2

M T W Th FNext Week

Japanese Yen - price

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2-6, 2007

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

M T W Th F NextWeek

J Yen

The Stock Market

• Stocks will see a mixed week with an overall downward trend.

• A slightly negative bias going into next week.

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Stock Market

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

S&P L -3 -2 -3 1 0 -1

S&P S 1 -2 1 -1 1 1

M T W Th FNext Week

S&P Index - price

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2-6, 2007

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

M T W Th F NextWeek

S&P

Crude Oil

• Peaks on Tuesday, followed by a correction bottoming on Thursday.

• Positive/mixed bias going into next week.

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Crude Oil

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Crude Oil L -2 2 -2 -4 1.5 1

Crude Oil S 1 -2 -1 4 3 -3

M T W Th FNext

Week

Crude Oil - price

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2-6, 2007

-4-3.5

-3-2.5

-2-1.5

-1-0.5

00.5

1

M T W Th F NextWeek

Crude Oil

Gold

• Starts out relatively flat, turning down on Wednesday, bottoms on Thursday, rallies on Friday.

• A mixed/ negative bias going into the following week.

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Gold

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Gold L 1 -1 -2 -3 2 -3

Gold S 1 -1 -2 1 -1 -4

M T W Th FNext Week

Gold - price

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

%% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2-6, 2007

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

M T W Th F NextWeek

Gold

Copper

• Starts out up turning down on Wed. and on into Thursday.

• A mixed/positive bias going into the following week.

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Copper

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Copper L 2 2 1 -1 0 3

Copper S -1 -1 -1 2 1 2

M T W Th FNext Week

Copper - price

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2-6, 2007

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

M T W Th F NextWeek

Copper

Market Bias Summary - volatility

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Largest directional changes are Tue and Thur for Crude Oil.

Rate of Price Change - April 2-6, 2007

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

M T W Th F Next Week

Crude Oil Gold S&P Copper

Market Bias Summary - price

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Crude peaks Tuesday, Copper and Gold Wednesday. All 3 bottom Thursday.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2-6, 2007

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

M T W Th F NextWeek

Crude Oil Gold Copper

Market Bias Summary - price

April 2-6, 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Japanese Yen has largest gain between Tuesday and Thursday, peaks Thursday.

% Price Change, Cumulative - April 2-6, 2007

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

M T W Th F NextWeek

T-Bonds J Yen

Disclaimer

A New Story Foundation is not a brokerage firm nor are we professional investment advisors. Please consult the appropriate person/firm for specific investment advice.

Should you find our forecast beneficial please consider supporting our research. Our sole source of funding is donations and grants from people like you. More information can be found on our website at http://anewstory.org.

Have a great week!